Robert Cox

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs asked for clarification on Allstate's auto insurance pricing, excluding New York and New Jersey, and the company's outlook for pricing trends heading into 2026.

Answer

CFO Mario Rizzo stated that auto insurance margins are strong, and the book is broadly rate adequate. He noted minimal rate increases outside of New York and New Jersey in the quarter and indicated that future pricing in 2026 would respond to loss trends, targeting a mid-90s combined ratio.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs asked for clarification on Allstate's auto insurance pricing, excluding New York and New Jersey, and the company's outlook for pricing trends heading into 2026.

Answer

CFO Mario Rizzo stated that auto insurance margins are strong, and the book is broadly rate adequate. He noted minimal rate increases outside of New York and New Jersey in the quarter and indicated that future pricing in 2026 would respond to loss trends, targeting a mid-90s combined ratio.

Robert Cox questioned if the significant acceleration in new issued applications was sustainable or flattered by high shopping activity, and asked if there were any unusual factors in the auto underlying loss ratio, which increased sequentially from Q4.

Answer

Thomas Wilson (executive) stated that new business levels are maintainable and driven by the rollout of new products, though the 27% year-over-year growth rate is not expected to repeat quarterly. Regarding the loss ratio, Wilson and Mario Rizzo (executive) dismissed the sequential comparison as not meaningful due to seasonality, emphasizing the absolute profitability is excellent and the underlying trend of favorable frequency and moderating severity continues.

Robert Cox inquired about the rationale for increasing advertising spend in Q4 2024, the methods for measuring its efficiency, and whether Allstate would commit to growing policies in force (PIF) in both auto and home segments in 2025.

Answer

Mario Rizzo, an executive at Allstate, explained that advertising spend is dynamically adjusted based on market tests and state-of-the-art analytics to optimize growth. CEO Thomas Wilson and Mario Rizzo confirmed the goal is to grow total Property-Liability PIF, noting that homeowners is already growing and a multi-faceted plan is in place to return the auto segment to growth by improving retention and leveraging all distribution channels.

Robert Cox asked about the drivers behind the 100 basis points HWC margin improvement in Q3 (excluding TRANZACT) compared to prior quarters, and sought confidence drivers for the BD&O business to achieve mid-single-digit organic growth for the full year.

Answer

Andrew Krasner, CFO, and Julie Gebauer, President of Health, Wealth, and Career, explained that consistent margin improvement in HWC is driven by portfolio focus, scalability, a clear top-line view, disciplined cost management, and process optimization. Julie Gebauer added that BD&O's confidence stems from nearly half its revenue being generated in Q4, with 80% of individual marketplace revenue occurring during the Medicare open enrollment period, alongside new client additions.

Robert Cox asked for clarification on the Health, Wealth & Career (HWC) segment's margin improvement, specifically how the 100 basis points expansion in Q3 (excluding TRANZACT) compared to contractions in the first half of 2025, and sought confidence for the Benefits Delivery & Outsourcing (BD&O) business to achieve mid-single-digit organic growth for the full year, implying high-single-digit growth in Q4.

Answer

Andrew Krasner, CFO, confirmed the commitment to incremental margin improvement for HWC. Julie Gebauer, President of Health, Wealth, and Career, detailed HWC's margin expansion of 40 basis points in Q1, 20 basis points in Q2, and 100 basis points in Q3 (all ex-TRANZACT), attributing it to portfolio focus, clear top-line view, disciplined cost management, and process optimization. For BD&O, she explained that nearly half of its revenue is generated in Q4, with 80% of individual marketplace revenue occurring during Medicare open enrollment, giving confidence in achieving mid-single-digit growth for the full year.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs inquired about the potential for growth acceleration in the Health, Wealth & Career (HWC) segment and asked if the talent investments in Risk & Broking (R&B) have reached a steady state, making growth primarily a function of the specialization strategy.

Answer

CEO Carl Hess, CFO Andrew Krasner, and President of Health, Wealth & Career Julie Gebauer collectively confirmed that HWC growth was on track, detailing strong demand in Health due to inflation, resilience in Wealth, and a healthy pipeline across the segment. Regarding R&B, CEO Carl Hess and President of Risk & Broking Lucy Clarke affirmed that growth is driven by the continued success of their specialization strategy, talent investments, and technology, with the specialty business continuing to outpace the rest of CRB.

Inquired about the expected annual cash outflow for the reinsurance JV and asked for confirmation that it would not impact free cash flow. He also asked about the drivers behind the strong organic growth in the Health segment and whether large new business wins were a factor.

Answer

The cash outflows for the reinsurance JV will be reported in the investing section of the cash flow statement and will not affect free cash flow; the investment size is comparable to a bolt-on acquisition over several years. The Health segment's strong growth (16% ex-BoB) was driven by project and brokerage income in North America, expansion of the global benefits management portfolio, and strength in Europe. The company expects continued high single-digit growth for the business, supported by strong market demand.

Robert Cox asked for a quantification of the business unlocked for growth by removing restrictions in CMP (Select) and Homeowners, and the potential uplift in growth. He also inquired if the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio improvement this year was due to improved casualty picks or a shift lower in shorter-tail exposures.

Answer

Greg Toczydlowski, EVP and President of Business Insurance, noted a slight tick up in Select retention as targeted CMP risk return optimization efforts neared completion but did not quantify overall growth impact. Michael Klein, EVP and President of Personal Insurance, explained that the goal is to leverage property capacity for package business, suggesting historical retention and new business levels in property and auto could dimensionalize the impact. Dan Frey, EVP and CFO, stated that the single biggest factor for Business Insurance's underlying loss ratio improvement was the continued benefit of earned price, especially in casualty lines, with a provision for uncertainty.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs inquired about how potential tariffs are being considered within pricing and margins. He also asked for the company's perspective on the impact of continued consolidation among insurance brokers.

Answer

CEO Alan Schnitzer responded that tariffs have had no meaningful impact so far, but any expected impact would be incorporated into loss picks and pricing. Regarding broker consolidation, he noted it has been a long-term trend and generally a tailwind for Travelers due to strong relationships with acquiring firms.

Robert Cox requested an update on how potential tariffs are being considered in pricing and margins. He also asked for Travelers' perspective on the continued consolidation of insurance brokers.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Alan Schnitzer said there has been no meaningful impact from tariffs yet, but any expected impact would be built into loss picks and pricing. He noted that broker consolidation has been a long-term trend and generally a tailwind for Travelers due to strong relationships with acquiring firms.

Robert Cox asked for an update on how potential tariffs are being considered in pricing and margins. He also inquired about the impact of ongoing insurance broker consolidation on Travelers' business.

Answer

CEO Alan Schnitzer stated that tariffs have not had a meaningful impact so far, but any expected future impact will be incorporated into loss picks and pricing. He also noted that broker consolidation has been a long-term tailwind for Travelers due to strong relationships with acquiring firms, a trend he expects to continue.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs inquired if tariffs could eventually affect liability claim costs and asked about trends in the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio, particularly for casualty lines.

Answer

Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO, assessed the potential impact of tariffs on liability lines as 'pretty negligible.' Daniel Frey, CFO, addressed the loss ratio, confirming there were no one-time items and that the conservatism added to casualty loss picks in the previous year has been carried forward into 2025.

Robert Cox inquired about pricing trends in Business Insurance heading into 2025 and sought details on catastrophe losses, including Hurricane Milton and the potential impact of the California wildfires.

Answer

Greg Toczydlowski, President of Business Insurance, described the pricing environment as very stable with no meaningful shifts. Dan Frey, CFO, clarified that Hurricane Milton's impact was approximately $60 million and a prior-quarter catastrophe adjustment related to Hurricane Helene. He noted it was too early to quantify the California wildfire impact but confirmed it would be a material event for Q1.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs asked about the scale and strategy of Aspen's programs business within the insurance segment and questioned the defensibility of improved market terms and conditions.

Answer

Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda Limited, detailed that the delegated authority business constitutes about 30% of the insurance book, focusing on strategic, long-term partnerships in niche areas. He expressed confidence that market terms and conditions are holding, particularly on retentions, and stated that the market is 'still quite away from a soft market' with discipline remaining high.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs inquired about the significance of the programs business within the Insurance segment and Aspen's strategy for growth in that area. He also asked about the defensibility of current market terms and conditions, particularly in a potentially softening environment.

Answer

Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda, stated that delegated programs constitute about 30% of the insurance book, focusing on long-term strategic partnerships that provide access to niche expertise. He expressed confidence in the stickiness of current terms and conditions, noting the market remains disciplined and is 'quite away from a soft market,' with no signs of significant erosion.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs inquired about the scale of Aspen's programs business within the insurance segment and the company's growth strategy in that area. He also asked about the defensibility of improved terms and conditions in a potentially softening market.

Answer

Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda Limited, stated that delegated authority business constitutes about 30% of the insurance portfolio and is focused on strategic, long-term partnerships that provide access to niche lines. He expressed confidence that improved terms and conditions are holding, noting the market is still far from 'soft' and has remained disciplined, particularly on retentions for catastrophe risk.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs inquired about the proportion of the insurance portfolio in programs and the strategy for growth in that area. He also asked about the defensibility of improved terms and conditions in the market and their potential to hold up in a softening environment.

Answer

Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda, stated that delegated authority business constitutes about 30% of the insurance book, focused on a few strategic, long-term partners in niche areas. On market conditions, he expressed confidence that terms and conditions are holding, particularly cat retentions, and that the market is not yet soft and remains disciplined.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs inquired about the divergence in quote volume growth between the direct and agency channels, asking if property book actions were limiting agency volume. He also asked about the potential size of a profit refund in Florida and future pricing strategy in the state.

Answer

Tricia Griffith, CEO, President & Director, explained that higher direct quote volume is driven by increased ad spend and a broader array of unaffiliated partners. She confirmed a tailwind is expected in both channels as the property book improves. Regarding Florida, she noted two recent rate cuts and explained that any potential refund under the state's excess profit statute is uncertain pending hurricane season, but the company will comply if profits exceed the three-year rolling limit.

Robert Cox asked for an update on the impact of the new business penalty in personal auto and whether its magnitude has changed. He also questioned why policy life expectancy (PLE) has declined despite strong growth, probing if it's due to the increased shopping environment.

Answer

CEO Susan Griffith and Personal Lines President Patrick Callahan addressed the new business penalty, explaining it's an inherent result of expensing acquisition costs upfront and is not materially different from past high-growth periods. On PLE, Griffith attributed the decline to a mix shift back to normal risk profiles after a period of tighter underwriting and increased industry-wide shopping, while emphasizing that overall PIF growth remains the key success metric.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs asked how casualty growth in Q2 compared to Q1 and if guidance reflected any change in casualty expectations. He also inquired about the organic growth outlook for recent large MGA acquisitions, like US Assure, as they roll into the organic base.

Answer

CFO Janice Hamilton and CEO Timothy Turner both confirmed that casualty growth was strong in Q1 and Q2 and is expected to remain a significant growth driver with 'no let up.' Miles Wuller, CEO of Underwriting Managers, addressed the US Assure outlook, acknowledging near-term construction headwinds but emphasizing that the long-term investment thesis is intact, supported by a large pipeline of quoted business and a structural housing shortfall in the U.S.

Robert Cox asked for an update on the economic environment through April, particularly regarding any pressure in the construction sector. He also inquired about the sources of market share gains in submission flow, especially in the property market.

Answer

CEO Tim Turner reported 'very strong construction results' with no noticeable slowdown, citing strength across infrastructure, commercial, and residential segments. Regarding market share, Mr. Turner attributed gains to two main factors: the continued double-digit increase of business flowing into the E&S channel and the ongoing trend of retail broker consolidation of their wholesale intermediaries, a process he believes is in the 'early stages' for the delegated authority space, representing a significant growth opportunity.

Robert Cox asked about the company's conviction in multi-year double-digit organic growth beyond 2025 and inquired about the growth opportunity in personal lines.

Answer

Executive Patrick Ryan expressed strong conviction in sustained double-digit organic growth, citing the rapid expansion of delegated authority, supported by recent acquisitions and favorable market trends. CEO Tim Turner detailed the significant opportunity in personal lines, particularly high net worth, highlighting a new MGU in London and a joint venture with AIG, driven by strong client demand.

Robert Cox asked if the observed pickup in E&S submission growth amid falling prices is consistent with typical market cyclicality. He also inquired if the company's property mix is now closer to the industry's 40% level and requested to size the impact of transactional liability on Q3 organic growth.

Answer

An executive confirmed that the company is seeing strong, double-digit flow from stamping offices, consistent with standard markets shedding unprofitable business. Another executive clarified that while the property mix has ticked up slightly, the 'two-thirds casualty, one-third property' allocation remains the correct way to view their portfolio. Regarding transactional liability, they noted it was a great contributor to organic growth but declined to provide a specific breakout.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs inquired about the drivers behind the significant expense ratio improvement in both Business and Personal Insurance and its sustainability. He also asked if growth in Small Commercial needs to accelerate to meet the $6 billion premium target for 2025.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Christopher Swift attributed the expense ratio improvement primarily to operating leverage from higher earned premium, along with ongoing efficiency gains. President A. Morris Tooker expressed confidence in the Small Business growth trajectory, stating that the outlook for their package, auto, and E&S binding products remains very favorable to achieve their goals.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs asked for the fixed versus floating breakdown of the investment portfolio and inquired about competitive dynamics in small commercial, specifically from larger peers.

Answer

CFO Beth Bombara stated that securities exposed to variable rates total about $6 billion, or roughly 10% of the portfolio. Regarding small commercial competition, CEO Christopher Swift and Executive Adin Tooker acknowledged interest from peers but asserted The Hartford's advantage comes from deep experience and continuous, hard-to-replicate investment in technology and agent experience.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs asked about the drivers behind the strong growth in contingent commissions, questioning if a particular theme or product was responsible.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Treasurer R. Andrew Watts attributed the growth to higher overall profitability for insurance carriers and strong performance within Brown & Brown's own programs. He highlighted an inverse relationship where moderating organic growth from rates often leads to increased contingent commissions due to better underwriting results.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs inquired about the Retail segment's organic growth run-rate entering 2025, the quantitative impact of a nonrecurring item in Q4, the sustainability of the Program segment's growth, and its typical contingent commission levels.

Answer

R. Watts, an executive, clarified that a timing issue impacted Q4 Retail organic growth by 40-60 basis points, which should reverse. J. Powell Brown, an executive, noted that Program segment growth is moderating due to rate pressure but remains positive. R. Watts added that Program's contingent commissions face downward pressure in 2025 from prior-year finalizations and potential California wildfire losses, and that the captive business is nearing its run-rate, which will limit its future growth lift.

Robert Cox asked if the product mix in the Wholesale Brokerage segment is positioned to sustain strong growth given the guidance for property catastrophe rates to be flat to down 10%.

Answer

J. Powell Brown, an executive, explained that while new market participants, particularly from London, are putting downward pressure on rates, the company's Wholesale business is balanced between brokerage and binding authority. He noted that Q3 is not a seasonally heavy property quarter and that a 0% to -10% rate environment is a significant moderation from the -20% to -30% decreases seen prior to the recent hurricanes.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs asked if the successful increase in revenue-generating headcount has altered Aon's future talent investment strategy, and also inquired about the broader economic outlook from clients.

Answer

CEO Greg Case emphasized that Aon's talent strategy is about adding capability amplified by its platform and analytics (ABS), not just headcount. CFO Edmund Reese explained this investment is funded by efficiencies from ABS to drive sustainable growth. Regarding the economy, Case noted that while clients face complexity, Aon's analytics provide clarity and options, enabling them to take action with conviction.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs asked if the successful 6% year-to-date increase in revenue-generating headcount has altered Aon's view on future talent investment levels and inquired about client sentiment regarding the broader economy.

Answer

CEO Greg Case emphasized that talent investment is about delivering better client outcomes by amplifying new hires with Aon's proprietary analytics and platform. CFO Edmund Reese added that the ability to invest is funded by operating leverage from Aon Business Services. Regarding the economy, Case noted that while clients face complexity from macro trends, Aon's analytics help them find advantages and take offensive action with conviction.

Robert Cox asked for details on the 4% growth in specialty revenue-generating roles and its impact on organic growth. He also questioned if Reinsurance Solutions can maintain its strong growth amid a lower rate environment.

Answer

CEO Gregory Case described the hiring as a strategic, ongoing investment in priority areas, amplified by Aon's tools, but did not provide granular detail. President Eric Andersen noted the reinsurance portfolio is broad beyond property cat, and CFO Edmund Reese confirmed that market rate dynamics are already factored into the firm's overall mid-single-digit or greater growth guidance.

Robert Cox asked for an outlook on the reinsurance brokerage environment for 2025, particularly regarding property cat pricing, and inquired about the relative economics of cat bond placements versus traditional reinsurance for Aon.

Answer

President Eric Andersen stated that while recent hurricane events might flatten the descent in reinsurance pricing, substantial market capital and client pressure for relief persist, with negotiations ongoing. Regarding economics, Andersen explained that Aon is agnostic between placing traditional reinsurance or cat bonds. The firm's goal is to be compensated transparently for the value delivered to sophisticated clients, regardless of the specific capital tool used.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs inquired about W. R. Berkley's growth potential and the underlying loss ratio dynamics in the insurance segment.

Answer

President & CEO W. Robert Berkley, Jr. revised the company's premium growth outlook to a range of 8% to 12%, down from the previous 10% to 15%. He also confirmed that the flat underlying loss ratio in the insurance segment was primarily driven by business mix.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs inquired about W. R. Berkley's premium growth potential and the underlying loss ratio for the insurance segment.

Answer

President & CEO W. Robert Berkley, Jr. revised the company's premium growth outlook downward to a range of 8% to 12%, from a previous 10% to 15%, citing decelerating property pricing. He also confirmed that the relatively flat underlying loss ratio in the insurance segment was primarily due to changes in business mix.

Robert Cox questioned the potential impact of tariffs on property lines, particularly high-net-worth homeowners. He also asked about the specific lines of business driving the 60 basis point acceleration in pricing during the quarter.

Answer

Executive W. Berkley explained that the company is closely monitoring the fluid tariff situation, with a focus on short-tail lines like auto physical damage and property, but noted it's premature to quantify the impact on loss costs. Regarding pricing, he stated the acceleration was consistent with past trends, highlighting continued rate focus in auto liability and umbrella lines, and suggested not getting overly preoccupied with the 60 basis point move.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs asked for an update on loss trend assumptions in the insurance business and queried how the market might react from a pricing perspective to recent hurricane activity.

Answer

Executive W. Berkley stated that the current rate increases of 8.4% ex-comp are comfortably ahead of loss trends but emphasized a cautious approach to recognizing this margin due to uncertainties like social inflation. Regarding hurricanes, he noted it was too early to determine the full market pricing impact, especially as much of Hurricane Helene's loss occurred in areas not typically modeled for such events, causing carriers to re-evaluate exposure and pricing.

Robert Cox asked for the underlying reasons why tariff-related inflation would impact long-tail casualty lines more than short-tail lines. He also inquired about the driver of the year-over-year decrease in The Fidelis Partnership ceding commissions.

Answer

CEO Dan Burrows explained that Fidelis's short-tail book allows it to price in inflationary effects on new business in real-time, whereas long-tail casualty carriers are exposed to these impacts on legacy portfolios bound years ago. CFO Allan Decleir attributed the lower ceding commission rate to business mix, specifically the inclusion of business from Pine Walk incubators which carry a different commission structure.

Robert Cox asked how settlement discussions for two-thirds of the Aviation and Aerospace exposure impacted reserves for the remaining one-third. He also sought clarity on 2025 net premium growth versus gross premium growth and requested guidance on the new Insurance segment's key ratios.

Answer

CEO Dan Burrows explained that recent legal progress allowed Fidelis to derisk its exposure through settlements, with the remainder reserved on a probabilistic model. CFO Allan Decleir projected 15-20% net premium earned growth for 2025 due to timing lags, despite 10% written growth. He also guided that the Insurance segment's acquisition costs are in the low 30s, contributing to a target combined ratio in the mid-to-low 80s.

Robert Cox asked how Fidelis maintained relatively flat pricing while peers saw decreases, particularly in U.S. E&S property. He also inquired about the outlook for net investment income (NII) and portfolio duration.

Answer

CEO Dan Burrows attributed pricing resilience to their leadership position, cross-selling leverage, and strong service. CFO Allan Decleir stated they are pleased with the portfolio repositioning, having reinvested at higher rates, and see the current 4.9% book yield as the glide path. He is comfortable with the current duration but will continue to optimize.

Robert Cox circled back to tariffs, asking about the potential magnitude of their impact on short-tail loss trends and how Chubb incorporates such a moving target into its pricing. He also asked for the growth outlook for Chubb's E&S market versus the admitted market.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Evan G. Greenberg explained that Chubb underwrites based on facts, not conjecture, and there is currently no clarity on tariffs. He noted that the company will adjust pricing as inflationary markers become clear. On E&S growth, he pointed to the 10.1% growth achieved in the quarter and reiterated his earlier commentary that about 80% of Chubb's total business presents good growth prospects, declining to provide a more specific forecast.

Robert Cox of Goldman Sachs asked what level of renewal premium change is embedded in the 6-8% brokerage organic growth forecast and if it assumes casualty market acceleration. He also inquired about the drivers behind Gallagher Re's sustained outperformance compared to its larger reinsurance brokerage peers.

Answer

CFO Douglas Howell stated the forecast does not assume a major casualty acceleration, with growth driven half by net new business and a quarter each by rate and exposure. CEO J. Gallagher added that in the current environment, Gallagher's data and analytics capabilities are a key differentiator. Regarding reinsurance, both executives attributed the strong growth to fundamental 'blocking and tackling,' a great sales team, superior analytics, and better integration with Gallagher's retail and wholesale operations.

Robert Cox inquired about the expected components of 2025 brokerage organic growth (new business, exposure, pricing) and the growth outlook for international versus U.S. retail operations.

Answer

CFO Douglas Howell projected that 2025 organic growth would be driven about 50% by net new business, with the remainder split between rate and exposure. Executive J. Gallagher and Howell both affirmed that international growth remains strong, led by Australia and New Zealand, and they are not concerned about any specific international region despite some mix issues in the UK and flattish results in Canada.

Robert Cox asked for commentary on a perceived secular shift of premiums toward a smaller number of large, data-advantaged insurers in the middle market and what that means for Marsh. He also inquired if the McGriff acquisition would be additive or dilutive to margins in 2025.

Answer

CEO John Doyle agreed that scale matters for both intermediaries and underwriters in the middle market, noting that Marsh McLennan Agency's ability to bring scale benefits to clients is a key part of its strategy. Regarding McGriff's margins, he clarified that the deal was not built around significant expense synergies but on bringing scale benefits to clients, colleagues, and shareholders, which will drive EPS accretion in late 2025 and beyond.

Robert Cox asked if the high price paid for top brokers has altered the company's capital deployment priorities. He also requested an update on trends for commission and fee rates within the brokerage operations.

Answer

President and CEO John Doyle affirmed their capital strategy still favors investing in the business over buybacks, stating they have 'great confidence' in earning returns above their cost of capital. Regarding compensation, he noted that he views the recent environment as a 'catch-up period' for insurers, not a hard market, and that average commission rates at Marsh have remained 'fairly stable' over an extended period.

Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs inquired about AIG's appetite for M&A versus share repurchases and asked for details on the General Insurance GOE ratio's performance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Peter Zaffino clarified that the priority is executing the $10 billion share repurchase plan for 2024-2025, but AIG maintains the financial flexibility and strategic intent to pursue disciplined M&A that complements its business. On the GOE ratio, he expressed satisfaction with Q3 results, noting the business successfully absorbed over $50 million in costs from other operations, with further run-rate benefits from restructuring expected in Q4 and 2025.