Robert Mosca

Robert Mosca asked about Kinetik's successful management of Waha volatility in Q4 2025, differences from prior periods, and additional steps taken for 2026, including GMP contract restructuring and third-party pipe capacity. He also inquired about the board's perspective on inbound strategic interest and deriving shareholder value from potential synergies.

Answer

Trevor Howard, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, cited securing additional Gulf Coast capacity, amending three contracts to protect volumes, and a more conservative curtailment forecast for 2026. Jamie Welch, President and Chief Executive Officer, highlighted Kings Landing's exemplary operational performance and a comprehensive, 'bottoms-up' review of the business. Regarding strategic interest, Jamie Welch reiterated Kinetik's willingness to evaluate opportunities that maximize shareholder value, consistent with its fiduciary responsibilities since February 2022.

Robert Mosca asked about Kinetik's success in managing Waha volatility in Q4 2025 compared to prior periods, additional steps taken for 2026, and how the board thinks about inbound strategic interest and shareholder value creation from potential synergies.

Answer

Trevor Howard, SVP and CFO, attributed Q4 2025 success to securing additional Gulf Coast capacity and amending three contracts, protecting about a third of previously shut-in volumes. He noted a 'heavy hand' on curtailment expectations for 2026. Jamie Welch, President and CEO, added that Q4 benefited from full Kings Landing operation and its exemplary performance. He emphasized a 'wholesale, bottoms-up' review of the business for 2026 forecasting. Regarding M&A, Jamie Welch reiterated that Kinetik is always willing to evaluate opportunities that maximize shareholder value, consistent with their fiduciary responsibilities.

Robert Mosca of Mizuho Securities questioned how Kinetik would manage its buyback authorization with respect to its public float and an upcoming sponsor lockup expiration, and asked if NGL pipeline contract roll-offs could provide a cost-saving offset in a lower-growth scenario.

Answer

CEO Jamie Welch stated the buyback is driven by conviction, not sponsor speculation, and that the public float has grown 5x, providing sufficient liquidity for open market purchases. Welch and CFO Trevor Howard confirmed that the roll-off of several above-market NGL contracts in coming years 'absolutely does' provide a significant embedded economic benefit, helping earnings grow faster than volumes.

Robert Mosca asked if it's fair to assume 1% Bakken GNP growth at a $55-$60/bbl crude assumption, and what other factors could alter this correlation. He also requested an update on efforts to attract more third-party volumes to the Permian NGL system and plans for capacity beyond nameplate, given strong Q4 numbers and new plants.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Sheridan Swords confirmed low single-digit growth for Bakken NGL and GNP at $55-$60 crude, noting higher crude prices could drive more volume. He also mentioned efficiency gains and potential for Tier 2/3 acreage. Swords stated 300,000 bbl/day capacity on the West Texas NGL Pipeline (total 740,000 bbl/day) and highlighted opportunities with unassociated GNP operators, RFPs, and contracting existing plants.

Robert Mosca asked about the expected growth rate for the Bakken GNP position at a $55-$60 WTI crude price, and what other factors could alter this correlation. He also inquired about the company's strategy to attract more third-party volumes to its Permian NGL system and plans for capacity beyond nameplate given strong Q4 performance and new plants.

Answer

CCO Sheridan Swords confirmed a low single-digit growth rate for Bakken GNP at $55-$60 crude prices, noting that higher commodity prices could drive increased volumes. He also mentioned efficiency gains (longer laterals, completion techniques), refracking, and reworking older wells as future growth drivers. For Permian NGLs, CCO Sheridan Swords stated approximately 300,000 barrels per day of open capacity on the West Texas NGL Pipeline (total 740,000 bpd). The company targets unassociated GNP operators and producers with existing plant contracts, leveraging its advantaged NGL pipeline capacity and Medford frac capacity to compete for volumes.

Robert Mosca asked for more detail on DT Midstream's five-year growth CapEx outlook, specifically how the number was derived, how uncommitted CapEx is risk-adjusted, and the geographical texture within that uncommitted capital. He also questioned how other third-party pipeline expansions in the Midwest might impact DT Midstream's ability to execute its planned pipeline expansions.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO David Slater stated that the backlog has increased due to market fluidity, expressing high confidence in deploying the $3.4 billion, with half already FID and the other half highly probable based on historical success. Regarding competition, Mr. Slater emphasized that DT Midstream is not concerned, citing the importance of location, connectivity, and track record. He noted the substantial addressable opportunity of 5-8 Bcf/d in the Upper Midwest, allowing ample room for multiple participants.

Robert Mosca asked for a deeper dive into DT Midstream's updated five-year growth CapEx outlook, specifically how the number was derived, the methodology for risk-adjusting uncommitted CapEx, and the geographical texture of that uncommitted capital. He also questioned how third-party pipeline expansions in the Midwest might impact DT Midstream's planned expansions.

Answer

David Slater, Executive Chairman and CEO, stated that the backlog increase reflects a fluid, growing market, with about half of the $3.4 billion backlog already FID'd and the other half highly probable, based on historical success ratios. He emphasized the company's strong asset location and disciplined, prudent approach to commercialization. Mr. Slater expressed confidence in DT Midstream's ability to execute despite competition, citing the large addressable opportunity of 5-8 Bcf/d in the Upper Midwest, which allows for multiple participants and outstanding results for the company.

Robert Mosca of Mizuho Financial Group inquired about other potential opportunities in the Haynesville basin, such as last-mile solutions to LNG facilities, storage projects, or connections to power generation. He also asked if DTM could benefit from recently announced projects driving in-basin demand in the Northeast.

Answer

President & CEO David Slater confirmed that DTM is actively evaluating greenfield storage opportunities in the Haynesville, driven by customer demand related to the LNG ramp. He also mentioned a focus on last-mile solutions and attracting more private producers. Regarding the Northeast, Slater stated that new in-basin demand, like from data centers, will allow basin production to ramp, and DTM expects to benefit as some of that incremental drilling will occur on its footprint.

Robert Mosca asked to what extent the productive capacity being built by DTM's major customer in the Haynesville for 2026 is captured in the company's preliminary 2026 guidance.

Answer

President and CEO David Slater confirmed that DTM receives insights into the plans of all its customers and that this information is reflected in the company's 2025 and 2026 guidance. He stated that the short answer is that the customer's activity is included in the outlook.

Robert Mosca inquired about the potential for DTM to provide a CCS solution for the new AGS lateral power project and asked for insight into the flexibility of its main Haynesville producer's development plans given market dynamics.

Answer

President and CEO David Slater noted that while CCS has been discussed with Appalachian power developers, the trend is shifting towards building conventional plants with the future optionality for decarbonization. Regarding the Haynesville, he reiterated that volumes are expected to grow through the year and have already increased since year-end, but producers remain in a 'wait-and-see' mode before committing to major production increases.

Robert Mosca asked for an outlook on the commercial impact of the closed Chesapeake/SWN merger, whether LEAP Phase 4 customers were related to the Blue Union expansion, and for details on the CCS project's delayed FID.

Answer

David Slater, President and CEO, expressed confidence in the value of the acreage DTM gathers for the newly merged entity, calling it the 'most economic rock in the basin.' He confirmed it was a 'safe assumption' that the LEAP Phase 4 customers were related to the Blue Union expansion. Regarding the CCS project, he attributed the FID push to H1 2025 to a 'regulatory holding pattern' while awaiting guidance from the Louisiana DENR.

Robert Mosca of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. asked for the latest project cost outlook for CP2 Phases one and two, given inflation and tariffs, and inquired about plans for the Plaquemines expansion, including capacity and financing.

Answer

CFO Jonathan Thayer updated the CP2 cost guidance to $28.5-$29.5 billion, citing higher interest rates, tariff exposure, and costs for labor attraction and upsizing components for a future Phase three. CEO Michael Sabel added that the Plaquemines expansion could exceed 24 MTPA, with spending paced alongside new contract signings, following the completion of contracting for CP2's next phases.

Robert Mosca from Mizuho Securities asked for the latest project cost outlook for CP2 Phases 1 and 2, given EPC inflation and potential tariffs. He also inquired about plans for the Plaquemines expansion, specifically the potential incremental capacity and how the company balances project size with cost and financing needs.

Answer

CEO Michael Sabel acknowledged a tough market but highlighted their factory-build approach as a mitigant. CFO Jonathan Thayer specified the updated CP2 guidance is $28.5B-$29.5B, incorporating higher interest rates, tariff exposure, and costs for upsizing components to support a Phase 3 brownfield. For the Plaquemines expansion, Sabel stated the size could be north of 24 MTPA and spending will be paced with contracting, with the CP2 Phase 3 brownfield expansion being the immediate priority.

Robert Mosca asked for an update on the expansion potential at CP1 and CP2, how that affects the development pipeline, and the timeline for entering an EPC contract for CP2 Phase 2.

Answer

CEO Mike Sabel confirmed that brownfield expansion opportunities at Plaquemines and CP2 are larger than previously expected and will now be prioritized ahead of the CP3 and Delta greenfield projects. He also explained that Venture Global's large internal EPC team reduces the scope and role of traditional external EPC contractors, with work already underway with partners like Worley.

Robert Mosca from Mizuho Financial Group asked for the standalone EPC cost of Trains 8 and 9, clarified the impact of tax law changes on DCF guidance, and questioned if the long-term excess cash target was now conservative.

Answer

EVP & CFO Zach Davis stated the vast majority of the project cost was for the trains, with debottlenecking capital being essential to meet return hurdles. He confirmed the recent tax law benefits were not in the prior guidance and are a key reason for the increase. He reiterated that the 'over $25 billion' available cash target through 2030 provides significant flexibility for buybacks, dividends, and disciplined growth, with excess cash being returned to shareholders if growth projects are not accretive.

Robert Mosca from Mizuho Securities revisited the topic of 'buy and contract back' opportunities, asking what is different now compared to last year. He also inquired if the potential spillover of CapEx into 2026 was driven by customer timing.

Answer

President & CEO Clint Green and VP & COO Christopher Wauson explained that the level of 'buy and contract back' opportunities is relatively flat compared to last year, but they continue to pursue deals that make strategic sense. Regarding CapEx timing, Clint Green clarified it is simply a function of when new units were ordered and their subsequent delivery and start-up dates, which fall around the year-end.

Robert Mosca sought more detail on the 'buy and contract back' opportunities mentioned, asking how the current environment differs from last year and the potential size of these deals. He also asked if the shift of some 2025 CapEx into 2026 was due to customer delays or other factors.

Answer

CEO Clint Green and COO Christopher Wauson clarified that the level of buy-and-contract-back opportunities is 'flattish' compared to last year, but they continue to pursue sensible deals with producers looking to monetize assets. Regarding the CapEx timing, Clint Green explained the potential spillover into 2026 is purely a function of equipment delivery and startup schedules for units ordered for late Q4.

Robert Mosca from Mizuho Securities questioned why the 40,000 new horsepower additions seemed below the previously guided 1.5% growth target. He also asked how the current macro backdrop and the need to wait for better high-yield market conditions might affect the growth outlook for 2026.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Christopher Paulsen clarified that the 40,000 horsepower was a Q1 order and that the company is on track to meet its full-year forecast of 52,000-55,000 horsepower. Regarding financing, Paulsen stated they are being patient with the high-yield notes market but noted the asset-backed credit facility (ABL) market remains very strong. He expects to move forward with refinancing the ABL, which will support growth plans without being hindered by near-term volatility in the notes market.

Robert Mosca of Mizuho Securities asked for NJR's perspective on the updated draft of New Jersey's proposed energy master plan. He inquired about the company's focus during the comment period and how recent affordability legislation might influence the plan's direction.

Answer

President and CEO Stephen D. Westhoven clarified that only a presentation, not a full draft document, of the energy master plan was issued. He noted that NJR submitted comments but anticipates that the new administration following the upcoming election will likely draft an entirely new plan. He characterized the current situation as a 'stay tuned moment' to see how the new administration's goals will shape future energy policy.

Robert Mosca inquired about the financial economics of the Sunlight Advantage residential solar portfolio sale, its effect on future electricity sales, and the outlook for the Infrastructure Investment Program (IIP) in 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Steve Westhoven clarified that wholesale electricity sales will not be impacted by the transaction. CFO Roberto Bel provided financial details, noting the sale's proceeds of $132.5 million and an estimated after-tax gain of approximately $0.30 per share. Executive Patrick Migliaccio added that the current IIP is scheduled to sunset as planned, and the company will evaluate potential future programs.

Robert Mosca asked for clarity on the drivers of the 'Other Services' segment guidance, which showed higher revenue but a lower margin, and requested a pro forma view of the legacy Kodiak gross margin.

Answer

CFO John Griggs explained that the 'Other Services' segment now includes businesses from the CSI acquisition, resulting in a blended revenue and margin profile that differs from Kodiak's legacy station construction business. He noted that while standalone Kodiak had a ~66% contract compression margin and CSI was in the mid-50s, the combined entity has already returned to a 67% margin, demonstrating successful integration.