Robert Stein

Robert Stein from Macquarie Group questioned the iron ore market outlook, asking for specifics on where depletion from major producers is expected to occur. He also inquired about how Rio Tinto is managing global inflation and productivity pressures compared to competitors who are deferring CapEx.

Answer

CEO Jakob Stausholm explained that depletion is a general industry trend, evidenced by declining grades across the Pilbara, and that Simandou's market addition will be absorbed by natural depletion. On costs, both Stausholm and CFO Peter Cunningham emphasized a focus on continuous improvement and efficiency rather than aggressive cost-cutting, highlighting specific efforts at Kennecott and RTIT while maintaining that the overall portfolio remains highly profitable.

Robert Stein from Macquarie Group asked about the sources of expected depletion in the iron ore market, Rio's own depletion rates, and the company's experience with global inflation and productivity trends.

Answer

CEO Jakob Stausholm noted that depletion is a general industry issue, evidenced by declining grades, and that Simandou's volume can be absorbed by modest market depletion. He and CFO Peter Cunningham added that teams are managing inflation well through continuous improvement and targeted cost actions where necessary, such as at Kennecott.

Robert Stein of Macquarie Group asked for details on the expected depletion of iron ore capacity from major producers and questioned how Rio Tinto is addressing global inflation and productivity challenges.

Answer

CEO Jakob Stausholm explained that depletion is a general trend, evidenced by declining grades, and that Simandou's output can be absorbed by the market. He and CFO Peter Cunningham noted that Rio is managing inflation well through continuous efficiency improvements rather than aggressive cost-cutting, as the company does not have major loss-making assets and is focused on protecting profitability.

Asked about the non-linearity of EBITDA projections in a downside scenario below $12/kg and inquired about how downstream customer interactions and volume commitments are evolving in the current market.

Answer

EBITDA projections are non-linear at low prices because a significant portion of volume is protected by fixed price floors in contracts. Existing customers are deepening their partnerships, but the company is not adding many new long-term contracts as potential customers are also navigating market uncertainty. This will likely lead to more market-exposed sales in the next 2-3 years.

Inquired about the expected future integration and restructuring costs after Q1 and whether currency gains are expected to be a recurring positive contributor to adjusted EBITDA.

Answer

The integration and restructuring costs seen in Q1 represent the vast majority (85-90%) of the total expected for the year, with subsequent quarters having minimal charges. Currency gains are not expected to be a recurring event of the same magnitude, as they were largely driven by cash balances that are expected to decrease.

Robert Stein of Macquarie questioned the relative operational and permitting risks for the Mammoth Underground project compared to other Queensland mines, especially given recent sector outages and increased regulatory scrutiny, and asked for a similar view on U.S. operations.

Answer

CEO Douglas Thompson detailed that Mammoth's bord and pillar method is less complex and well-suited to the geology. He emphasized that the project is a mining method change within a fully permitted area, not a new mine, simplifying the approval process. He added that engagements with the regulator have been positive and the company is leveraging its deep underground expertise from its U.S. operations to manage risks.