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    Robert Wildhack

    US Consumer Finance & Fintech Analyst at Autonomous Research

    Robert Wildhack is a US Consumer Finance & Fintech Analyst at Autonomous Research US LP, specializing in equity research across consumer finance, fintech, payments, specialty finance, and banks. He actively covers major companies such as American Express, Bill.com, Upstart Holdings, and Affirm Holdings, and participates regularly in key earnings calls with detailed sector questions that have earned recognition for their insight and depth. Wildhack joined Autonomous Research in 2015 after four years at RBC Capital Markets in the Alternative Assets Group, and holds both CFA charterholder status and a dual degree in Finance and Economics from Syracuse University. He is noted in the industry for his strong analytical approach, though specific performance metrics such as TipRanks ratings or average forecast returns are not publicly disclosed.

    Robert Wildhack's questions to Affirm Holdings (AFRM) leadership

    Robert Wildhack's questions to Affirm Holdings (AFRM) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack of Autonomous Research asked why competitors have not adopted the 0% APR product as vigorously as Affirm. He also sought clarification on the timing of an enterprise merchant's transition off the platform.

    Answer

    Founder & CEO Max Levchin attributed Affirm's lead in 0% APR to their superior and complex underwriting capabilities, which are difficult to replicate. He noted it's a multivariate problem involving real-time pricing, merchant subsidies, and compliance. CFO Rob O'Hare clarified that the guidance assumes the enterprise partner will be wound down by the end of fiscal Q1.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Affirm Holdings (AFRM) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack of Autonomous Research asked for the underlying assumptions in Affirm's recession sensitivity analysis and inquired about the strategic importance and technical difficulty of its credit bureau reporting initiatives.

    Answer

    CEO Max Levchin explained the recession analysis is based on empirical data from past stress events, focusing on necessary credit adjustments. CFO Robert O'Hare added they focus more on internal loan book signals than external macro indicators. On credit reporting, Levchin stated it's a core mission to help consumers build credit responsibly, despite the complexity, and called on competitors to follow suit.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Affirm Holdings (AFRM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked about the drivers behind the accelerating growth in active customers, the impact of 0% APR offers on this growth, and the drivers of the sequential increase in non-GAAP sales and marketing expenses.

    Answer

    CEO Max Levchin attributed the active consumer growth to a deliberate, multi-quarter focus on direct-to-consumer initiatives like the Affirm Card and expanded e-commerce coverage, not a loosening of credit standards. CFO Robert O'Hare explained that the marketing spend increase was to support new program launches but did not represent a change in strategy away from point-of-sale user acquisition. He noted that overall OpEx is expected to remain relatively flat for the next two quarters.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Affirm Holdings (AFRM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked for early insights on the U.K. launch, including merchant reception and Affirm's competitive advantage, and also inquired about the broader competitive landscape and sustaining growth.

    Answer

    CEO Max Levchin described a very strong reception in the U.K., driven by high merchant demand for longer-term financing, which he views as an underserved market. He stated Affirm's competitive moat is its sophisticated underwriting technology and data infrastructure, which has proven successful in the U.S. and is now being deployed in Europe.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Affirm Holdings (AFRM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked how the current interest rate curve and market expectations for rate cuts are factored into Affirm's fiscal 2025 approval and growth outlook.

    Answer

    CEO Max Levchin clarified that future rate expectations are not explicitly used in real-time underwriting; the effect is lagged as it gets priced into new capital deals. CFO Michael Linford added a key caveat: if rates are cut due to economic weakness and a loosening labor market, they would need to adjust approval models for increased credit risk, potentially offsetting the benefit of lower funding costs.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Affirm Holdings (AFRM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked for the underlying assumptions in Affirm's recession sensitivity analysis and questioned the strategic importance and technical challenges of reporting loan data to credit bureaus.

    Answer

    CEO Max Levchin explained the recession analysis is based on empirical data from past stress events, not specific macroeconomic forecasts. Regarding credit bureaus, he stressed its importance for helping consumers build credit, a process that required years of work with partners like TransUnion and Experian to ensure data was incorporated accurately and beneficially. CFO Robert O'Hare added that for recession planning, they focus more on their own loan book's performance due to its fast turnover.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Upstart Holdings (UPST) leadership

    Robert Wildhack's questions to Upstart Holdings (UPST) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked about the drivers behind the quarterly fair value adjustment and NII guidance, how Upstart manages adverse selection in a competitive market, and how it competes with deposit-funded lenders.

    Answer

    CFO Sanjay Datta explained that fair value is complex, impacted by UMI trends, risk-capital deal timing, and loan seasoning. CEO Dave Girouard stated that adverse selection is managed through competitive capital costs and sophisticated models like 'APR as a feature.' He added that ~25% of loans are already funded by partner deposits, and non-depository capital is becoming more competitive.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Upstart Holdings (UPST) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack from Autonomous Research asked about the drivers behind the quarterly fair value adjustment, the NII guidance, how Upstart manages adverse selection, and how it competes with deposit-funded lenders.

    Answer

    CFO Sanjay Datta cited UMI fluctuations, risk capital deal timing, and loan seasoning as drivers of fair value volatility. CEO Dave Girouard explained that adverse selection is managed through competitive capital costs and advanced models like 'APR as a feature.' He noted that ~25% of loans are already funded by partner deposits, and non-depository capital is becoming more competitive.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Upstart Holdings (UPST) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked why the full-year guidance was not raised more significantly given the new Fortress funding agreement. He also inquired about the specifics of the OnePay/Walmart deal, including underwriting control and economics.

    Answer

    CEO David Girouard explained that Upstart's growth is gated by the economic acquisition of borrowers, not by a shortage of funding, so the Fortress deal doesn't directly translate to higher guidance. Regarding the OnePay partnership, he confirmed it uses Upstart's models for underwriting and involves a revenue-sharing agreement that is a 'win-win' for both parties.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Upstart Holdings (UPST) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Robert Wildhack of Autonomous Research US LP questioned why contribution margins wouldn't decline with significant volume growth, which typically requires more marketing spend. He also asked if at-will ABS buyers are returning meaningfully and if the 2025 outlook assumes a rebound in that channel.

    Answer

    CFO Sanjay Datta explained that contribution margins are not expected to fall because the company can scale efficiently; any reduction would be a conscious strategic decision to lower take rates for future growth, not a result of rising unit costs. He added that while conversations with at-will buyers are positive, it's too soon to call a trend, and the 2025 guidance does not rely on a specific rebound in the ABS market.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Upstart Holdings (UPST) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Robert Wildhack from Autonomous Research inquired about the T-Prime program's economics, specifically its fee structure and contribution margins, and asked for thoughts on the broader competitive landscape.

    Answer

    CEO Dave Girouard explained that T-Prime loans have thinner but positive margins, allowing Upstart to capture contribution dollars from a new, highly-competed market segment. He noted that overall contribution margins are currently high and will likely normalize. On competition, he expressed confidence in Upstart's proprietary underwriting and integrated platform model.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to CREDIT ACCEPTANCE (CACC) leadership

    Robert Wildhack's questions to CREDIT ACCEPTANCE (CACC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked about the potential for increased volatility in forecasted collections given the broader economic environment. He also questioned if the source of volatility (e.g., inflation vs. tariffs) makes a difference in its impact and inquired about the reasons for maintaining a high cash balance for several consecutive quarters.

    Answer

    Executive Jay Martin acknowledged that forecasting is challenging due to inflation, potential tariffs, and recession risks, but stated the current forecast is their best estimate. He also noted the 2022 vintage was impacted by multiple factors, including a competitive environment and peak vehicle valuations. SVP & Treasurer Jay Brinkley added that loans are priced with a large margin of safety to absorb volatility. Brinkley also explained the high cash balance reflects a conservative stance amid capital market uncertainty, and the company felt good about the timing of its recent debt issuances.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to CREDIT ACCEPTANCE (CACC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked if the smaller negative revisions to forecasted collections for two consecutive quarters suggest the worst of the downward revisions is over. He also questioned whether the company might now hold excess capital, given recent capital raising activities followed by slowing origination growth.

    Answer

    CEO Kenneth Booth responded that while their forecast always reflects their best estimate, the recent smaller decline was notable and primarily driven by the 2022 vintage, which is becoming less material. He added that the 2023 and 2024 cohorts, which are more significant for future results, remained stable. SVP & Treasurer Jay Brinkley addressed the capital position, stating that the company prefers to be conservative and maintain a solid cash position heading into the busy tax season and potential market uncertainty, and feels comfortable with its current standing.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to CREDIT ACCEPTANCE (CACC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked for clarification on the expected performance of the 2023 and 2024 vintages relative to the 2022 vintage, the potential collection impact from recent hurricanes, and for context on the economic profit of a strong vintage like 2019 versus the underperforming 2022 vintage.

    Answer

    CEO Kenneth Booth stated that the 2023 and 2024 vintages are expected to perform better than 2022 because their initial forecasts were more conservative. Chief Treasury Officer Douglas Busk added the underperformance trend is similar but less severe. Mr. Booth noted hurricane impact is not material to the overall portfolio. Regarding profitability, Mr. Busk confirmed a wide variance between vintages like 2019 (highly profitable) and 2022 (less profitable) but affirmed that all vintages are expected to generate positive economic profit.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL (COF) leadership

    Robert Wildhack's questions to CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL (COF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked for specifics on the investment strategies and levers Capital One plans to use to solve the 'chicken and egg' problem of building international network acceptance.

    Answer

    Richard Fairbank, Chairman and CEO, explained that the strategy is to expand on Discover's existing playbook. This involves a 'boots on the ground' effort combining partnerships with other networks, working through merchant acquirers, collaborating with local financial institutions, and direct-to-merchant engagement. He stated Capital One will lean into this proven approach more heavily, leveraging the combined company's scale.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Synchrony Financial (SYF) leadership

    Robert Wildhack's questions to Synchrony Financial (SYF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack from Autonomous Research questioned if the current macro uncertainty alters Synchrony's plan to maintain higher liquidity levels to prefund growth. He also asked for an analysis of the outperformance in Dual Card and co-brand products and the outlook for their growth versus private label cards.

    Answer

    CFO Brian Wenzel affirmed the strategy to maintain higher liquidity in the first half of the year, as it provides pricing flexibility on maturing CDs and is economically positive. He attributed Dual Card growth to the success of the CareCredit offering, which provides flexibility for out-of-network spending. CEO Brian Doubles added that the multiproduct strategy allows them to migrate customers from private label to dual cards as they demonstrate creditworthiness, which is a key value proposition for partners.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Ally Financial (ALLY) leadership

    Robert Wildhack's questions to Ally Financial (ALLY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked if Ally's willingness to unwind credit underwriting curtailments has changed and how that might affect originated yield. He also inquired about the used car price outlook embedded in the company's guidance and the sensitivity to potential price increases.

    Answer

    CFO Russ Hutchinson explained that Ally is taking a very cautious approach to unwinding curtailments due to macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly around trade policy. He noted that strong performance from 2024 vintages provides a cushion. For used car prices, Hutchinson said their models assume prices remain about 20% above pre-pandemic levels. He added that while it's too early to call, tariffs on new vehicles could intuitively have a positive impact on used vehicle values, which would benefit Ally's credit severity and lease gains.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Ally Financial (ALLY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked for details on Ally's plan to unwind credit curtailment actions, including the potential benefit to origination yields and the rationale for this move given credit volatility. He also sought to quantify the 2025 NIM impact from the EV lease accounting change.

    Answer

    CFO Russ Hutchinson explained that unwinding curtailment actions will be a gradual, continuous process of tweaking underwriting at a micro-segment level, not a single event. This unwind is expected to offset the impact of falling benchmark rates, keeping origination yields in the high 9% to 10% range. Regarding the EV accounting change, Hutchinson and CEO Michael Rhodes declined to provide a pro-forma NIM without the change, stating the new deferral method better reflects the business economics and provides more transparency than the previous lumpy flow-through method.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to Ally Financial (ALLY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Robert Wildhack questioned if underwriting curtailments would significantly reduce near-prime exposure and how that might affect dealer relationships and application flow. He also asked about the current competitive landscape and if re-entering competitors are impacting origination yields.

    Answer

    CFO Russ Hutchinson stated that dealer relationships remain strong because Ally is a consistent, full-spectrum partner, which maintains high application flow. CEO Michael Rhodes added that competitors are re-entering mostly in the prime space, where Ally has less volume, and that Ally's "through the cycle" presence is valued by dealers. He affirmed they feel good about the risk-adjusted margins on new business.

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    Robert Wildhack's questions to AMERICAN EXPRESS (AXP) leadership

    Robert Wildhack's questions to AMERICAN EXPRESS (AXP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robert Wildhack asked for more detail on the integration of SMB technology platforms like Kabbage and Center, and the timeline for a fully integrated product suite.

    Answer

    CEO Stephen Squeri explained that the Kabbage platform currently integrates card, loan, and checking account access for SME customers. The next step is to integrate the recently acquired Center platform. However, he did not provide a specific timeline, noting the deal had just closed and requires 'hardening' to meet bank holding company standards before full integration.

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