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    Robin Down • HSBC

    Robin Down's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership

    Robin Down's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robin Down from HSBC questioned the outlook for mortgage lending, suggesting underlying demand might be stronger than implied by a stamp duty pull-forward. He also asked about the outlook for deposit growth and whether the structural hedge was likely to grow.

    Answer

    Executive Paul Thwaite agreed that mortgage application levels remained robust post-stamp duty changes. CFO Katie Murray stated that deposit growth is expected to track the market. Regarding the structural hedge, she guided for it to remain stable for the year, explaining that the 12-month lookback methodology means recent growth in eligible balances will take time to be reflected in the hedge's size.

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    Robin Down's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Robin Down of HSBC requested more detail on the drivers of volatility within the Group Center's results. He asked if the movements were primarily due to FX swaps linked to the U.S./U.K. interest rate differential and sought clarity on when this trend might reverse.

    Answer

    CFO Katie Murray explained that while FX swaps are a component of the Group Center's volatility, hedge accounting classifications also play a role, making it difficult to guide on a quarterly basis. She reiterated that analysts should model the center's total income impact as roughly zero over time, as profits and losses are generally allocated out to the business segments.

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    Robin Down's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership

    Robin Down's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Robin Down from HSBC asked about the apparent lack of revenue growth in Barclaycard UK despite high customer acquisition, questioning the timing. He also sought clarification on the structural hedge's 90% reinvestment rate versus comments on its notional stability.

    Answer

    Executive Angela Cross confirmed a lead-lag effect in Barclaycard UK revenues, with new customers taking over 12 months to mature into significant interest-earning balances, with the bulk of the impact expected in 2026. On the hedge, she clarified that 'circa 90%' is a planning assumption, while the expected outcome, based on strong deposit trends, is a broadly stable notional.

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