Rock Hoffman Blasko

Rock Hoffman asked whether the energy storage volume beat includes pull-forward, the contract spot mix shift in Q4 and beyond, and preliminary thoughts on 2026 CapEx and when CapEx would need to turn on for meaningful volume growth after 2026.

Answer

CEO Kent Masters clarified that the volume beat was mostly from inventory use and selling into a strong market, not pulling next quarter's volume forward, though the 30D tax credit expiration caused some U.S. EV demand pull-forward. CFO Neal Sheorey explained that the contract/spot mix (45% long-term in 2025) might tick down in 2026 due to strong China demand (spot market) rather than a shift in long-term contracts. Kent Masters anticipated 2026 CapEx to continue at the current run rate or slightly lower, with incremental reductions, emphasizing efficiency without shorting assets, and pivoting for investment when economics are right.

Rock Hoffman asked if the energy storage volume beat included any pull-forward effects, how the contract-spot mix would shift in Q4 and beyond, and for preliminary thoughts on 2026 CapEx, specifically when CapEx would need to increase to incentivize meaningful volume growth after 2026.

Answer

Kent Masters, CEO, confirmed that the volume beat included inventory utilization and some pull-forward from the 30D tax credit expiration in the U.S. Neal Sheorey, CFO, explained that the contract-spot mix might tick down from 45% due to strong demand in China, where sales are not on long-term contracts. Kent Masters, CEO, anticipated 2026 CapEx to continue at the current run rate or slightly lower, with incremental reductions, emphasizing efficiency and not shorting assets.

Rock Hoffman of Bank of America asked for the rationale behind the changing sales mix between contract and spot volumes in the second half of 2025 and sought clarity on the numerical pricing assumption used in the company's guidance.

Answer

CEO Kent Masters stated the mix change is driven by customer demand timing. CFO Neal Sheorey added that the guidance assumes a continuation of the year-to-date average price of approximately $9/kg LCE, which is based on a basket of regional prices and products, not a single spot price.

Rock Hoffman Blasko asked for more detail on the scenarios driving the 15% to 40% lithium demand growth forecast for 2025 and inquired about potential upside to the company's productivity improvement targets.

Answer

CEO Jerry Masters explained that the wide demand range reflects significant market uncertainty, but the company's best estimate is for growth in the mid-20% range. Regarding productivity, he confirmed they are targeting the high end of the $300-$400 million savings range and that productivity improvement is a continuous, ongoing effort.

Rock Hoffman Blasko from Bank of America asked if Albemarle's cost-cutting actions could influence the broader market and questioned the reason for the wide range in the 2025 tax guidance.

Answer

CEO Jerry Masters stated that the closure of the small Chengdu facility is unlikely to impact the market. CFO Neal Sheorey explained the wide tax guidance range is driven by the different lithium pricing scenarios, as lower pretax income in certain jurisdictions like China and Australia, where tax valuation allowances exist, significantly impacts the effective tax rate.

Rock Hoffman Blasko, on for Steve Byrne, asked if a shift in contract mix caused lower realized pricing in Q3 and whether Albemarle would consider cutting operating rates to tighten the market.

Answer

CEO Kent Masters stated that the underlying contracts did not change. Chief Commercial Officer Eric Norris clarified that Q3 saw the highest sales volumes, including a higher proportion of spot and spodumene sales, which created a mix effect that lowered the average realized price for the quarter. Regarding production cuts, Masters said that while they evaluate all options, decisions on operating rates are driven by customer demand and cost optimization rather than a strategy to manage market supply.

Rock Hoffman Blasko of Bank of America inquired about the rationale for producing 5.0% spodumene concentrate and asked for details on future cost optimization potential.

Answer

Co-Chairperson and CEO Ana Cabral Gardner explained the move to 5.0% concentrate was a conscious decision. By adding reprocessed material from the recycling circuit, Sigma exponentially gains mass, which significantly lowers costs. She noted the market currently does not offer a sufficient premium for higher-grade material. Regarding future cost reductions, she clarified that the primary driver for lowering all-in sustaining costs to the target of $530/tonne will be economies of scale from halving SG&A and interest expenses with the second plant, rather than further cuts to already low operational costs.

Rock Hoffman Blasko, on for Steve Byrne, asked if reshoring manufacturing and preparing for a potential demand pullback could risk delaying the rollouts of key products like Argomax and Kuprion. He also asked for a geographic breakdown of the Industrial business's performance.

Answer

CEO Ben Gliklich clarified that localizing supply chains to mitigate tariffs is a tactical activity handled by local teams, separate from the teams working on strategic product scale-ups like Argomax and Kuprion, which remain on track. He noted the Industrial business's 1% decline was driven by weakness in Europe, offset by stability in the Americas and strong growth in Asia, particularly in China's auto sector.

Rob Hoffman of Bank of America asked for an update on Coperion's commercialization timeline and inquired about market share trends for metallized surfaces in automotive and household products.

Answer

CEO Benjamin Gliklich stated that Coperion's active copper commercialization is a key goal for 2025, with strong customer demand. He expects reasonable revenue in 2025 and an EBITDA contribution in 2026. Regarding surfaces, he noted a recent trend toward painted finishes softened the decorative business, but OEMs are now indicating a return to chrome, which should be a tailwind in the coming years.

Rock Hoffman Blasko, on behalf of BofA Securities, asked what fraction of the 2,800 net new body shop wins are adopting the Irus Mix technology and whether the market potential for this technology has expanded beyond high-end premium facilities.

Answer

CEO Chris Villavarayan stated that the Irus Mix rollout is currently focused on existing premium customers, primarily in Europe, and is not a primary component of the 2,800 new wins at this stage. He confirmed the strategy remains centered on high-end premium facilities for the technology, with plans to double the number of installations next year.