Rodolfo Ramos

Rodolfo Ramos inquired about current traffic dynamics, specifically the underperformance of international VFR routes due to U.S. immigration policies, despite Volaris's capacity deployment. He also asked about the expected recovery timeline and GAP's guidance. Additionally, he questioned when the rapid growth of GAP's directly operated commercial businesses might stabilize to align with traditional retail and F&B growth rates.

Answer

Raúl Revuelta, CEO of GAP, explained that the VFR market slowdown is due to a restrictive perception of U.S. immigration policies, affecting routes to the U.S. directly and via Tijuana/CVX. He anticipates short-term decreases but is optimistic for recovery in coming years based on announced seat capacity. Regarding commercial growth, Mr. Revuelta stated that directly operated businesses will continue double-digit growth for the next 3-4 years, driven by new commercial areas in upcoming terminal expansions (Puerto Vallarta, Tijuana, Los Cabos, Guadalajara T2), FBOs, and hotel developments, outpacing third-party operated segments.

Rodolfo Ramos inquired about current traffic dynamics, specifically the underperformance of international VFR routes due to U.S. immigration policies, and how Volaris's capacity deployment aligns with these routes. He also asked about expectations for recovery towards year-end and the company's guidance. Additionally, he questioned the growth trajectory of GAP's directly operated commercial businesses and when their top-line revenue growth might stabilize in line with traditional retail and F&B.

Answer

CEO Raúl Revuelta explained that the VFR market is experiencing a slowdown due to perceived restrictive U.S. immigration policies, leading to a short-term decrease, but expressed optimism for recovery in coming years based on announced seat capacity. Regarding commercial businesses, Mr. Revuelta highlighted double-digit growth in directly operated segments, driven by new commercial areas in upcoming terminal expansions (Puerto Vallarta, Tijuana, Los Cabos), FBOs, and hotels. He anticipates these businesses will continue to grow at a faster pace than third-party operations for the next three to four years.

Rodolfo Ramos from Bradesco BBI questioned the conservative 2025 traffic guidance, given the easing of prior headwinds, and asked for details on the schedule and rationale for the gradual rollout of new maximum tariffs.

Answer

Executive Raul Musalem explained that the 4-6% traffic guidance is based on confirmed airline seat commercialization and slot requests, noting any unannounced routes would represent an upside. Regarding tariffs, he stated a 15% increase would be applied on March 1, with subsequent increases planned to reach 100% of the maximum authorized tariff during 2026.

Inquired about the specifics of tenant engagement, the timeline for occupancy stabilization, and whether new energy legislation has spurred new development ideas for solar power and self-supply schemes.

Answer

Executives noted that tenants show high conviction in Mexico and are adapting to new trade rules rather than relocating. They expect more leasing decisions as uncertainty dissipates. Regarding energy, Vesta is adapting to new beneficial regulations and plans to increase solar panel projects as part of its Route 2030 strategy.

Rodolfo Ramos from Bradesco BBI asked for more detail on Vesta's tenant engagement discussions, particularly regarding when occupancy might stabilize in light of the USMCA review. He also questioned if new energy regulations are creating opportunities for solar projects.

Answer

CEO Lorenzo Dominique Berho Carranza explained that tenants have a high conviction in Mexico and are adapting to new trade scenarios rather than relocating. He anticipates decisions will accelerate as tariff clarity emerges. Regarding energy, he confirmed that new regulations are beneficial and align with their Route 2030 strategy, expecting more solar projects to materialize.

Rodolfo Ramos asked for details on tenant engagement amid trade uncertainty, when occupancy might stabilize, and if new energy regulations are creating opportunities for solar power development.

Answer

CEO Lorenzo Dominique Berho Carranza explained that tenants remain committed to Mexico and that Vesta is adapting its Route 2030 strategy to leverage new, beneficial energy regulations, expecting more solar projects to materialize throughout the year.

Rodolfo Ramos from Bradesco BBI asked if the observed weakness in northern markets could impact the Bajio markets, questioning if they are substitutes or have different client bases. He also asked how this dynamic affects the pace and focus of the development pipeline under the Route 2030 plan.

Answer

CEO Lorenzo Dominique Berho Carranza explained that markets have different dynamics, with metro and Bajio areas driven more by consumption and logistics, while border regions are more tied to manufacturing and export. He stated that while trends differ, vacancy rates remain healthy across markets, generally below 5%. He reiterated Vesta's disciplined approach, noting that high-quality products with proper infrastructure will have an advantage. He used the upgraded Monterrey buildings as an example of adapting to deliver the best product, suggesting this strategy will continue to guide development pace.

Rodolfo Ramos inquired about the primary drivers of the strong commercial revenue performance beyond currency effects and asked about the potential future impact of increased CapEx on operating expenses and margins.

Answer

Executive Adolfo Castro Rivas attributed the strong commercial revenue to favorable exchange rates in Puerto Rico and Colombia, as well as a beneficial passenger mix and duty-free sales in Mexico. He confirmed that CapEx projects, such as the Terminal 1 expansion in Cancun scheduled for completion in Q3 2026, will lead to higher operating costs for maintenance and security once the new areas become operational.

Rodolfo Ramos inquired about ASUR's traffic growth expectations for the current year in Mexico and whether the new Tulum airport is expected to cannibalize commercial revenue per passenger at Cancun.

Answer

Executive Adolfo Castro Rivas explained that Mexican traffic will continue to face headwinds from Mexico City capacity constraints and the Pratt & Whitney engine issues, with improvement expected by Q3. He stated that while Cancun's Terminal 2 is losing commercial opportunities, he does not foresee a decrease in overall commercial revenue per passenger, anticipating improvements when Terminal 1 opens in mid-2026.

Rodolfo Ramos asked about the medium-to-long-term potential for non-aeronautical revenue per passenger and the role of Toluca airport in the Mexico City area.

Answer

CFO Ruffo Pérez del Castillo explained that commercial revenue per passenger is sustainable, while diversification revenues (hotels, cargo) are not directly tied to passenger counts. CEO Ricardo Duenas added that the government's strategy favors Santa Lucia (AIFA) over Toluca for absorbing excess traffic from Mexico City's main airport.

Rodolfo Ramos asked about the medium-to-long-term potential for non-aeronautical revenue per passenger and the strategic relevance of the Toluca airport.

Answer

CFO Ruffo Pérez del Castillo explained that commercial revenue per passenger is sustainable, while diversification revenues (hotels, cargo) are not directly correlated to passenger traffic. CEO Ricardo Duenas added that the government's strategy clearly favors the Santa Lucia airport (AIFA) over Toluca for handling excess traffic from the Mexico City area.

Rodolfo Ramos asked about the long-term impact of Mexico City airport's slot reductions on OMA's system, particularly Monterrey, and inquired about any updates on the potential commercial operation of a nearby military airport.

Answer

CEO Ricardo Duenas stated he expects traffic to shift to alternative airports, positioning OMA's network as part of the solution for bypassing Mexico City and remains bullish on long-term traffic due to nearshoring. Regarding the military airport, he noted there are no official announcements or actions, and OMA's Monterrey airport currently has no capacity constraints.