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    Rupert Merer

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at National Bank Financial, Inc.

    Rupert Merer is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at National Bank Financial, specializing in sustainability, clean technology, and renewable energy sectors. He covers key companies such as Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp., and has been recognized as the No. 1 Alternative Energy analyst by Brendan Wood International for multiple years, reflecting strong performance in investment research and recommendations. Merer began his career as a combustion engineer in gas turbine technologies, transitioned to various roles in the hydrogen and utility industries, and joined National Bank Financial in 2006. He holds a BSc in Engineering Physics, an MASc in Mechanical Engineering, an MBA from Queen’s University, is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), and a licensed Professional Engineer (Ontario).

    Rupert Merer's questions to ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES (AQN) leadership

    Rupert Merer's questions to ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES (AQN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Rupert Merer followed up on operating costs, asking if added expenses from billing issues are resolved and if current levels are representative. He also inquired about dis-synergies from the Renewables group sale and any near-term cost-reduction plans.

    Answer

    CFO Brian Chin stated that the majority of extra costs from billing issues, primarily bad debt expense, were reported in Q4 2024 and the trend is improving. He also noted that Q1 dis-synergies from the asset sale were less than a penny of EPS and not material enough to call out, with their eventual removal expected to manifest in the forward outlook.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES (AQN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer asked incoming CEO Rod West about his key focus areas for his first 90 days and his initial thoughts on Algonquin's asset base. He also inquired about the potential for moving the company's headquarters to the U.S.

    Answer

    Incoming CEO Roderick West stated his initial focus is on aligning people, identifying opportunities for productive capital deployment, and accelerating the company's strategy. He noted it was too early to opine on specific asset challenges. Interim CFO Brian Chin responded that it is premature to comment on a potential headquarters move, emphasizing the company's current focus is on its internal 'self-help' story.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES (AQN) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer from National Bank Financial inquired about the composition of the $1.6 billion in net cash proceeds from the renewables sale and sought details on the deal's valuation multiple.

    Answer

    CFO Darren Myers explained that the difference between the gross sale price and net proceeds is primarily due to the repayment of construction loans, with minimal tax friction. Myers and CEO Chris Huskilson characterized the valuation as strong, representing an 11.5x to 12.5x multiple of next year's estimated EBITDA, which they believe reflects significant value for the development pipeline.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) leadership

    Rupert Merer's questions to Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Rupert Merer from National Bank Financial asked about the compromises made during the recent restructuring and its impact on product cost reduction initiatives.

    Answer

    President and CEO Randall MacEwen explained that the company has prioritized and sequenced product development programs, focusing on the winning bus market while deprioritizing truck market investments for now. He stated that core MEA R&D was protected, but some programs moved from parallel to sequential development. MacEwen confirmed that cost-reduction plans remain on track, highlighting the 'Project Forge' initiative, which is expected to reduce bipolar plate costs by approximately 70% and significantly increase production capacity starting next year.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Rupert Merer asked about the specifics of the recent restructuring, questioning what compromises were made and if there was any impact on product cost reduction or fundamental R&D initiatives. He followed up by asking if the company remains on track with its long-term cost-reduction plans.

    Answer

    President and CEO Randall MacEwen responded that the company prioritized and sequenced product development programs, shifting from parallel to sequential execution. A key change was deprioritizing investment in the truck market to focus on the bus market, where Ballard is a leader. He stated they protected core MEA R&D while reducing activity on more mature balance-of-plant components. MacEwen confirmed they are on track with cost-reduction plans, highlighting that 'Project Forge' will significantly lower bipolar plate costs by about 70% starting next year, with no impact on MEA cost-down initiatives.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer asked about the impact of market rationalization on Ballard's customers and supply chain, and whether it creates any M&A opportunities.

    Answer

    CEO Randall MacEwen responded that current backlog customers have a stronger liquidity profile than those who previously became insolvent. While some suppliers are concerned, Ballard feels confident in its key partners. He noted that competitor failures remove some low-price players from the market. On M&A, he said they have not seen attractive technology and will not pursue acquisitions that increase cash burn, prioritizing cash-flow positive targets.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer inquired about the competitive positioning of Ballard's 9th generation PEM fuel cell, its potential for future performance improvements, and the company's progress on its long-term technology and cost reduction plans.

    Answer

    CEO Randall MacEwen stated that the new FCmove XD engine leads the industry in durability (30,000+ hours) and power density. He highlighted its integrated design and reduced part count as key advantages. MacEwen estimated Ballard is about two-thirds of the way through its '3x3' cost reduction plan, with significant progress in MEA and bipolar plate technology, expecting project completion in the next 18-24 months.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer of National Bank Financial, Inc. asked about the competitive positioning of the new 9th generation PEM fuel cell, its performance advantages, and Ballard's progress on its long-term technology and cost reduction roadmap.

    Answer

    CEO Randall MacEwen stated the new FCmove XD leads the industry in durability (30,000+ hours) and power density, with an integrated design that reduces part count and improves serviceability. MacEwen estimated Ballard is approximately two-thirds of the way through its cost reduction plan, with key projects like next-generation bipolar plate production expected to complete by the end of 2025.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to GFL Environmental (GFL) leadership

    Rupert Merer's questions to GFL Environmental (GFL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Rupert Merer asked about the remaining impact from recent divestitures, any further portfolio rationalization plans, and the performance and M&A outlook for the divested ES business.

    Answer

    Executive Luke Pelosi confirmed one final quarter of revenue impact from a prior divestiture and stated that the company's major portfolio pruning is complete. Regarding the ES business, he noted some weather-related softness but stable EBITDA, while highlighting a robust M&A pipeline. CEO Patrick Dovigi reiterated the plan to add $30-35 million in EBITDA annually to ES via acquisitions.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to GFL Environmental (GFL) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer asked about the optimal debt level for the company following a potential sale of the Environmental Services (ES) business and how management weighs M&A opportunities against stock buybacks.

    Answer

    CEO Patrick Dovigi stated that post-transaction, the company would target a leverage ratio of around 3.0x to definitively secure an investment-grade rating. He emphasized that at current valuations, buying back GFL's own stock is likely the 'higher and better use of capital,' while also acknowledging a significant pipeline of tuck-in M&A opportunities exists within the company's current footprint.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to Brookfield Renewable (BEPC) leadership

    Rupert Merer's questions to Brookfield Renewable (BEPC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer of National Bank Financial followed up on policy risk, asking about exposure to tariffs and higher equipment costs. He also inquired about the primary drivers of data center power demand (AI vs. cloud) and the potential impact of more energy-efficient AI technologies.

    Answer

    Executive Connor Teskey stated that, similar to tax credits, any cost increases from tariffs would be passed through to customers via higher PPA prices. He highlighted the company's global procurement capabilities as a competitive advantage. Teskey confirmed that AI is the single largest driver of new power demand and argued that even more efficient AI would likely lead to wider adoption and faster overall growth, maintaining a favorable supply-demand balance for power producers.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to Brookfield Renewable (BEPC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer asked for quantification of the difference in return expectations between mature and development assets, and also questioned the price sensitivity of the power market, particularly for data centers, given recent high contract prices.

    Answer

    Executive Connor Teskey quantified the return delta, stating their best developers see margins of 400-600 basis points, implying development returns of 13-17% versus sale prices yielding 8-11%. Executive Wyatt Hartley addressed pricing, noting that the $90/MWh price for dispatchable clean power is constructive and supported by strong demand from multiple buyers. He did not speculate on a price ceiling but emphasized the market remains very favorable.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) leadership

    Rupert Merer's questions to Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Rupert Merer questioned the potential impact of tariffs on equipment costs and how the company is covered, and also asked about the primary drivers of data center power demand, specifically AI versus cloud and crypto.

    Answer

    Connor Teskey (executive) explained that any potential tariffs on equipment would be passed through to customers via higher PPA prices, similar to tax credit changes, due to inelastic demand. He highlighted Brookfield's global procurement capabilities as a competitive advantage. On data centers, he identified AI as the primary demand driver by a wide margin and stated that even with more efficient AI models, the overall demand growth and supply-demand imbalance will remain strongly in their favor.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to LEV leadership

    Rupert Merer's questions to LEV leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Asked about the market opportunity from government programs, the competitive landscape, production ramp-up capability, and the status of efforts to improve liquidity.

    Answer

    The company confirmed the 10,000-vehicle market potential through 2027 from various programs. They see a stable competitive landscape and aim to grow their leading market share. They have the physical capacity to ramp up production when liquidity allows. They are actively exploring financing options but cannot share specifics yet.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to LEV leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Merer inquired about the Lion8 tractor's launch timeline and customer profile, its competitive positioning, and the commitment level of prospective truck customers to electrification.

    Answer

    The company expects the first Lion8 tractor sales before the end of the year. The product is considered very competitive, but the main challenge is convincing customers to switch from the 'status quo' (diesel), not losing to other EV makers. They are now focusing sales efforts on large, serious fleets that are planning a medium-to-long-term transition to electric.

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    Rupert Merer's questions to LEV leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    The analyst inquired about the cadence of the targeted $50-75 million inventory reduction, requested a liquidity forecast for the end of Q2, and asked about progress on supply chain cost reductions, particularly for battery cells.

    Answer

    The company expects the inventory reduction to accelerate in Q2 and Q3 after a transitional Q1 and is confident in the $50-75 million target. They declined to provide a specific Q2 liquidity forecast but noted their focus on working capital and cost savings. Supply chain cost reductions are expected in the medium term as technology evolves and new platforms scale, but the immediate priority is consuming existing inventory.

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