Russell Quelch

Russell Quelch asked for more detail on the recently announced Barclays deal, including whether it was a competitive displacement, what products it entailed, if a bundled pricing approach was used, and if this type of deal might make Market Intelligence sales lumpier.

Answer

President & CEO Martina Cheung described the Barclays deal as emblematic of the strategic partnerships fostered by the Chief Client Office (CCO). It's a comprehensive, '360-degree' relationship allowing Barclays to access a wider range of products on CapIQ Pro and also contribute their own pricing data. While she doesn't foresee these deals creating revenue lumpiness, she noted the company will act on strategic opportunities with CCO clients as they arise, not necessarily waiting for renewal dates.

Russell Quelch asked for details on the recently announced Barclays deal, including whether it was a competitive displacement, what products it entailed, if it involved bundled pricing, and if this type of deal could make MI revenue more lumpy.

Answer

President & CEO Martina Cheung described the Barclays deal as a true strategic partnership, not just a product sale. It allows Barclays to access a wider range of products via Capital IQ Pro and also contribute its own pricing data to S&P Global. She stated that while they will pursue these strategic deals proactively, she does not expect them to create significant revenue lumpiness for the division.

Russell Quelch highlighted the strong 9% growth in the Indices division's data and custom subscription revenue, asking if this was driven by competitive displacement and if it could help offset pressure on asset-linked fees.

Answer

CFO Eric Aboaf expressed pleasure with the segment's performance, attributing the strong growth primarily to a real uptick in demand for end-of-day data contracts, which are highly valuable to clients. He did note this strength was partially offset by lower revenue from some custom data feeds.

Russell Quelch of Redburn Atlantic requested an update on the execution of the private credit opportunity within Ratings and inquired about the potential TAM from a privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Answer

President and CEO Martina Cheung confirmed private credit remains a strong opportunity, reflected in the growth of S&P Global's overall private markets solutions. She emphasized the breadth of their offerings beyond ratings, including software and valuation solutions. Regarding Fannie and Freddie, she stated the company would not speculate on the potential impact.

Russell Quelch revisited the Market Intelligence Desktop business, asking if its headwinds are more structural, stemming from high competition and limited headcount growth in finance, and how S&P plans to win market share.

Answer

Incoming President and CEO Martina Cheung countered that structural shifts, like the growth in private credit, can play to their strengths. She pointed to the breadth of their offerings, including Visible Alpha, and the new Chief Client Officer role as key levers for engaging clients more effectively, connecting dots across divisions, and creating higher long-term value to win business.

Russell Quelch asked about large carriers leveraging AI for insights from their own property insurance data and the potential long-term impact on the usage of contributory databases as the sole source for insurance pricing.

Answer

President and CEO Lee Shavel explained that clients analyzing their own data increases their interest in comparing it to overall industry performance and benchmarks. He stated that Verisk's rich data sets enhance and augment clients' internal efforts, making connectivity and Verisk's offerings even more relevant.

Russell Quelch asked if large carriers are discussing leveraging AI to gain insights from their own extensive data, particularly in property insurance, and how this might impact the long-term usage of contributory databases as a primary source for insurance pricing.

Answer

Lee Shavel, Verisk's President and Chief Executive Officer, confirmed that clients are using AI on their own data, but this increases their interest in comparing their performance to the industry. He emphasized that Verisk's rich data sets, such as Prometrics and loss cost information, enhance and augment internal client applications, making connectivity and Verisk's offerings even more relevant.

Russell Quelch of Rothschild & Co Redburn asked about the financial discipline behind the recent acquisitions, specifically inquiring about the return on invested capital (ROIC) hurdle rate Verisk uses.

Answer

CFO Elizabeth Mann stated that Verisk evaluates acquisitions using an ROIC framework. The company targets acquisitions that are expected to generate a return on invested capital above its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) within a three-year timeframe, emphasizing the strategic merit and long-term value of the recent deals.

Russell Quelch from Redburn Atlantic requested a breakdown of the 4% decline in transactional revenue, asking for the growth rate excluding contract conversions and questioning the lack of a tailwind from auto shopping activity.

Answer

CFO Elizabeth Mann detailed that a single large contract conversion accounted for 200-250 basis points of the decline, with other conversions and lumpy software revenue also contributing. Regarding auto, she cited balanced results due to attrition in the insurtech segment and less activity in the 'non-rate action' business as industry rates have recovered.

Russell Quelch asked about the 2024 CapEx coming in below guidance, the 15% increase guided for 2025, and the company's expectations for free cash flow growth.

Answer

CFO Elizabeth Mann explained the 2024 CapEx variance was due to mindful spending and timing factors, not a major project delay. Regarding free cash flow, she did not provide a specific forecast but highlighted the recently announced 15% dividend increase as a strong indicator of the company's confidence in future cash generation.

Russell Quelch asked for more specifics on the drivers of growth in the international business and inquired if this would be a focus area for M&A in 2025.

Answer

CFO Elizabeth Mann highlighted broad-based international strength, citing the life, health, and travel business expanding into new regions, the Opta business in Canada benefiting from Verisk data integration, and the claims businesses in Germany. She confirmed international remains an area of interest for potential acquisitions. CEO Lee Shavel added that the UK-based Specialty Business Solutions unit also continues to be a strong growth contributor.

Russell Quelch asked for more detail on why growth in active ETFs does not cannibalize MSCI's revenue growth with active asset managers, and to confirm the economic differences between active asset management benchmarks and active ETF benchmarks.

Answer

Baer Pettit (President and COO, MSCI) explained that active ETFs do not cannibalize existing revenue because they often involve new strategies, quantification of existing strategies, or new index creation, rather than simply moving a fund. He noted that many traditional active managers are entering this space, creating new upside. Henry Fernandez (Chairman and CEO, MSCI) added that systematized active ETF products also generate AUM fees on top of data fees, providing incremental revenue.

Russell Quelch followed up on the discussion about active ETFs, seeking more detail on why their growth does not cannibalize revenue from active asset managers and the economic differences between active asset management benchmarks and active ETF benchmarks.

Answer

Baer Pettit, President and COO, MSCI, explained that active ETFs typically involve a more rules-based or quantified investment strategy, often built from scratch, which creates new opportunities for MSCI's tools and data. He stated that the shift to an ETF wrapper is generally neutral or positive for MSCI, as it often leads to new index-linked components and licensing opportunities, rather than cannibalizing existing business. Henry Fernandez, Chairman and CEO, MSCI, added that in addition to subscription fees, systematized active ETF products also generate asset-based management fees, providing incremental revenue.

Russell Quelch asked for an update on conversations with General Partners (GPs) about liberalizing data rights to allow the sale of aggregated LP data, and what products could drive greater GP engagement.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Henry Fernandez clarified that while existing contracts allow for generous use of anonymized, aggregated data, the current system is insufficient for the wealth management space. He confirmed that MSCI is in active discussions with GPs to liberalize data rights, which is crucial for tapping into the wealth channel's capital. He expressed optimism that GPs' interest in capital raising will lead to success.

Russell Quelch asked for confirmation that the Q1 retention rate improvement was driven by lapping one-off client consolidations rather than proactive pricing actions.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Andrew Wiechmann confirmed that the year-over-year improvement was largely due to lapping elevated client events from Q1 of the prior year, specifically with banks and hedge funds. He attributed the current strong retention rate to the mission-critical nature of MSCI's tools and proactive client service, not to specific pricing or discounting actions.

Russell Quelch inquired about the partnership with Moody's in the ESG segment, asking about the impact of new private data capabilities and the potential to expand the relationship.

Answer

CEO Henry Fernandez detailed the three components of the partnership: Moody's licensing MSCI ESG data, MSCI using Moody's data to create new ESG scores, and a shared intention to collaborate on private credit. He noted that the first two parts are underway, while the private credit aspect is still under discussion. He concluded that it is still early days to see significant synergistic revenue from the partnership.

Russell Quelch asked about the size of the opportunity in custom and specialized index solutions, MSCI's differentiation, and whether this growth cannibalizes other index business.

Answer

President and COO Baer Pettit described the opportunity as 'very exciting' and applicable across all client segments. He stated that differentiation comes from integrating MSCI's analytics, research, and climate data into custom solutions, with the Foxberry acquisition set to enhance speed and flexibility. He positioned it as a critical and expanding part of the growth story, implying it is a net positive for the segment.

Russell Quelch asked about headwinds impacting insurance ARR, specifically slowing retention and sales, and Moody's outlook for insurance growth into 2026 given market dynamics.

Answer

Noémie Heuland, CFO of Moody's Corporation, explained that while actuarial data and models are trending strongly, the RMS and RERP migration saw significant transactions in 2024 and early 2025, leading to tougher comparisons and a period of customer digestion. Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer, expressed bullishness on the insurance industry, noting insurers' increasing adoption of digital platforms and sophisticated third-party data, and Moody's expansion into casualty risk and cyber solutions.

Russell Quelch inquired about headwinds affecting insurance ARR, specifically slowing retention and sales, and the outlook for insurance growth into 2026 given market conditions like P&C slowdown and storm normalization.

Answer

Noémie Heuland, CFO, explained that actuarial data and models (Access) are trending well with high double-digit growth, driven by customers adopting higher definition models. She noted that RMS and RERP migration saw significant transactions in 2024 and early 2025, leading to a current "digestion" phase, but a strong pipeline remains for future growth. Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer, expressed bullishness on the insurance industry, highlighting insurers' increasing adoption of digital platforms and sophisticated data/analytics, and Moody's expansion into casualty risk and cyber.

Russell Quelch asked for more detail on the banking sector within Decision Solutions, noting a fourth consecutive quarter of decelerating ARR growth and questioning the potential for re-acceleration.

Answer

CEO Robert Fauber clarified that the banking segment is a portfolio of products. While the overall segment's 7% growth is impacted by weaker performance in areas like the 'learning' (training) business, the core strategic focus, the CreditLens lending suite, is growing in the low-to-mid teens. He noted the combined ARR of the lending and Numerated businesses is expected to grow in the high teens.

Russell Quelch from Redburn Atlantic asked for clarification on how Moody's Investor Service (MIS) could guide for flat to increasing revenue growth in 2025 despite forecasting a decrease in rated issuance, questioning if a positive mix effect was at play.

Answer

CEO Robert Fauber confirmed there are several factors bridging the gap between issuance volume and revenue. These include annual pricing initiatives of 3-4%, a positive mix shift from reduced low-fee bank loan repricing activity, an expected modest improvement in higher-value M&A deals in the second half, and mid-single-digit growth in recurring revenue.

Russell Quelch from Redburn Atlantic asked about the drivers behind the re-acceleration of ARR growth in the KYC business and its sustainability. He also inquired about potential expansions of the partnership with MSCI.

Answer

Stephen Tulenko, President of Moody's Analytics, attributed the strong KYC growth to having a 'better mousetrap' through sustained investment in data, models, and software. CEO Robert Fauber added that significant relationship expansions with several of the world's largest banks and the launch of a new corporate platform are also key drivers. The question regarding the MSCI partnership was not addressed in the executives' response.

Russell Quelch requested more specific details on the growth from private credit assessments, how Moody's is positioning to capture this opportunity, and whether conversations with large firms are leading to immediate revenue.

Answer

CEO Robert Fauber confirmed that Moody's is already generating revenue from private credit through both its ratings and analytics businesses, particularly in FIG and structured finance. He asserted that this revenue stream will materialize faster than AI-related revenue. While work is underway to provide more detailed disclosure, he stressed that the demand and revenue opportunities are current and growing.

Russell Quelch of Rothschild & Co asked how the new liquidity from the recent credit facility refinancing would be deployed, specifically between organic and inorganic growth initiatives.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Helen Shan confirmed the company has ample liquidity. She indicated that capital allocation priorities include an increased share repurchase authorization and a continued focus on M&A for inorganic growth, while also taking advantage of any market dislocations for buybacks.

Russell Quelch asked about FactSet's strategy to stimulate top-line growth back above 5%, inquiring whether the company might pursue more aggressive M&A or partnership opportunities.

Answer

Executive Frederick Snow confirmed that it is a good time to explore partnerships more aggressively, enabled by the company's open platform. On M&A, he stated that FactSet is in a much better position to do targeted deals than in the past few years, as the M&A market becomes more constructive. He affirmed that while maintaining discipline, M&A is a lever the company can use to drive top-line growth.