Ryan Gilbert

Ryan Gilbert questioned the expected trajectory of deliveries in 2026, specifically if the historical relationship between delivery growth, starts, and homes under construction would reassert itself, or if deliveries could continue to outpace starts. He also inquired about Green Brick Partners' spec strategy for 2026, considering Trophy's growth and some competitors shifting back to build-to-order sales.

Answer

CFO Jeff Cox explained that Green Brick Partners pulled back on starts in Q4 2025 to rightsize inventory, aiming to start roughly the same number of homes as sold. He expects an increase in starts towards the end of 2026, with future years targeting growth in community count and closings. CEO Jim Brickman and President and COO Jed Dolson affirmed their commitment to the spec strategy, citing strong buyer demand for quick move-in homes across various price points, especially with Trophy's success. They noted that while some competitors discuss shifting to build-to-order, it hasn't significantly played out in their markets, except for homes over $1 million. Jim Brickman emphasized that their high margins provide flexibility to adjust spec inventory without the same profitability impact as lower-margin peers.

Ryan Gilbert with BTIG asked about the expected trajectory of deliveries in 2026, specifically if deliveries would continue to outpace starts and homes under construction, and the company's spec strategy for 2026 given Trophy's growth and competitors' shifts to build-to-order.

Answer

CFO Jeff Cox explained that the company pulled back on starts in Q4 to rightsize inventory, aiming to start roughly the same number of homes as sold. He expects an increase in starts with increasing community count, but not all deliveries from those starts may benefit this year, with future years targeting growth in community count and closings. Regarding spec strategy, CEO Jim Brickman noted Trophy's success with buyers seeking immediate homes and mortgage rate certainty. President and COO Jed Dolson stated the industry is effectively providing desired spec products, with demand extending up to the $1M+ price point, and Green Brick will continue to build specs. He observed that competitors' build-to-order shifts haven't significantly played out in the market, except for the highest price points. Jim Brickman added that Green Brick's high margins (29-30%) provide flexibility to use incentives on specs without the same profitability impact as lower-margin peers.

Ryan Gilbert asked about the drivers of strong sales in the North segment, including product mix changes and the community pipeline's ability to replace closeouts. He also questioned the confidence in continued community count growth despite a relatively flat controlled lot count and the optimal years of land supply.

Answer

Executive Vice President Karl Mistry noted a strategic shift in the Northeast towards infill development and attached products in desirable locations, contributing to better velocity. CEO Douglas Yearley added that outsized land opportunities are emerging in the North and Mid-Atlantic. CFO Gregg Ziegler expressed confidence in supporting 7%-10% annual community count growth with 75,000 controlled lots (55% optioned) and 2.7 years of owned land.

Ryan Gilbert asked about any changes in product mix contributing to the strong sales in the North segment and how the community pipeline looks, including the ability to replace community closeouts given the strength of orders. He also questioned the confidence in continued community count growth despite a relatively flat controlled lot count, and inquired about the optimal years of land supply.

Answer

Executive Vice President Karl Mistry confirmed a strategic shift and repositioning of product and land acquisition in the Northeast, focusing on infill development and attached products in good locations, which has improved velocity. He noted less inventory in this region. CEO Douglas Yearley added that they are seeing outsized land opportunities in the North and Mid-Atlantic. CFO Gregg Ziegler stated confidence in continued community count growth (7%-10% annually) due to approximately 75,000 owned or controlled lots (55% optioned), representing 2.7 years of owned land net of backlog.

Ryan Gilbert from Stifel inquired about the performance of the emergency response (ER) business early in the year and its drivers. He also asked about the potential for international revenue to grow as a percentage of the company's total revenue and what factors would drive that expansion.

Answer

CEO Vijay Manthripragada responded that ER work is steady and in line with the full-year outlook of $50 million to $70 million, with no abnormal projects to note. Regarding international growth, he explained that while markets in Canada, Australia, and Europe are performing well, the company will remain predominantly North America-based, and the overall revenue mix is not expected to deviate significantly in the near term.