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    Ryan Nash • Goldman Sachs

    Ryan Nash's questions to Capital One Financial Corp (COF) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to Capital One Financial Corp (COF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. sought assurance that the 'significant sustained investment' mentioned by management would not create synergy reinvestment risk and would ultimately lead to a more efficient consolidated company.

    Answer

    Richard Fairbank, Founder, Chairman & CEO, detailed the long-term nature of investments in technology, the Discover network, the national bank, and the premium card segment. He stressed that these are consistent with Capital One's value-creation strategy and reiterated that the company's estimate for the combined entity's earnings power remains consistent with what was projected at the deal's announcement.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Capital One Financial Corp (COF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash inquired about the health of the U.S. consumer amid market concerns over tariffs, the drivers behind Capital One's credit performance, and the rationale for the reserve release, including the underlying economic assumptions.

    Answer

    Richard Fairbank, Chairman and CEO, stated that the U.S. consumer remains a source of strength, citing low unemployment, healthy job creation, and improving delinquency and payment rates in their portfolio, while acknowledging some stress at the margin. CFO Andrew Young explained the allowance release was driven by favorable credit results, which was tempered by a higher weighting of downside economic scenarios to account for heightened uncertainty.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Capital One Financial Corp (COF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash inquired about the current health of the consumer, the outlook for credit loss performance, and whether the company is on a downward trajectory for losses. He also asked if Capital One's long-term efficiency improvement journey would continue after the Discover acquisition, given the planned investments.

    Answer

    CEO Richard Fairbank stated that the U.S. consumer remains a source of strength, though pockets of pressure exist. He noted that card delinquencies have stabilized and shown year-over-year improvement, but the lingering effects of pandemic-era "delayed charge-offs" are still working through the system. Regarding efficiency, Mr. Fairbank affirmed that the company's technology-driven efficiency improvements are a core part of its long-term strategy and are expected to continue for the combined company, despite necessary investments in Discover's compliance, network acceptance, and brand.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Capital One Financial Corp (COF) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash inquired about Capital One's strong credit performance across various consumer segments, questioning why it appears to be bucking industry trends and what this implies for future loss levels. He also asked for an outlook on the net interest margin (NIM) following a strong quarter and potential Federal Reserve easing.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Richard Fairbank attributed strong credit to proactive underwriting adjustments made in 2020-21, which offset pandemic-related credit score inflation seen elsewhere in the industry. He noted that while the overall consumer is healthy, Capital One's credit has stabilized above pre-pandemic levels due to lower (but rebuilding) recoveries and a 'delayed charge-off' effect from the pandemic. CFO Andrew Young explained the Q3 NIM increase was driven by higher card yields and loan mix. He projected near-term NIM would face headwinds from asset sensitivity but see tailwinds from card growth, with longer-term direction dependent on factors like deposit betas and credit performance.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to KeyCorp (KEY) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to KeyCorp (KEY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash from Goldman Sachs inquired about client sentiment and the drivers behind KeyCorp's strong loan growth and investment banking fees, asking how this performance translated into an improved financial outlook. He also asked about the pacing of technology and hiring investments and the path to sustained positive operating leverage.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Christopher M. Gorman described client sentiment as "cautiously optimistic," highlighting consumer financial health and the agility of commercial clients. CFO Clark H. I. Khayat explained that the upgraded NII guidance was driven by strong C&I loan growth and proactive deposit management. Gorman added that KeyCorp will continue investing in frontline talent and technology, viewing positive operating leverage as a key focus.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Synchrony Financial (SYF) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to Synchrony Financial (SYF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash asked about the encouraging signs in Synchrony's portfolio, the extent of credit loosening actions, and the potential path back to mid-to-high single-digit growth given new and renewed partnerships.

    Answer

    President and CEO Brian Doubles highlighted 5% growth in co-brand volume and strength in retail, cosmetics, and electronics as positive signs. He confirmed selective credit loosening began in Q2, focused on Health & Wellness, with more possible in H2. He expressed optimism for 2026 growth driven by the new Walmart program, Amazon Pay Later, and the PayPal physical card. Regarding pricing changes (PPPCs), Doubles noted they were minor, partner-by-partner adjustments totaling less than $50 million in net revenue impact, and are considered normal course business discussions.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Synchrony Financial (SYF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. inquired about Synchrony's confidence in lowering its full-year net charge-off guidance and the underlying unemployment assumptions in its reserves. He also asked for clarity on the company's plans regarding its previously implemented pricing changes (PPPCs) now that the CFPB's late fee rule has been vacated.

    Answer

    CEO Brian Doubles expressed confidence in credit trends, citing the performance of their proprietary underwriting system and improving delinquency rates. CFO Brian Wenzel added that while the quantitative reserve came down, they increased the qualitative reserve, which assumes a 5.3% unemployment rate. Regarding the late fee rule, Doubles stated they don't plan to roll back changes immediately but will engage in partner-by-partner discussions, which could result in various forms of value-add, not just price rollbacks.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Synchrony Financial (SYF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash inquired about the key drivers of Synchrony's 2025 net revenue guidance, seeking specifics on net interest income components, the impact of interest rates, and the run-rate benefit from recent pricing and policy changes (PPPCs). He also asked about the rationale behind the lower Q4 share buyback and the company's capital return strategy.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Brian Wenzel detailed that the net revenue guide is influenced by a significant increase from PPPCs and revolve growth, offset by higher Retail Share Arrangement (RSA) costs and lower late fees. He noted that the lower Q4 buyback was a strategic decision based on anticipated market volatility, not a signal of holding capital for M&A or future growth, and affirmed the company's commitment to completing its current authorization and returning capital to shareholders.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Synchrony Financial (SYF) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash inquired about the drivers for the Q4 Net Interest Income (NII) guidance, including the impact of pricing changes (PPPCs) and liability sensitivity, and asked about the trajectory for credit losses into 2025.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Brian Wenzel explained that sequentially flat Q4 NII is due to higher reversals and lower late fees offsetting interest income gains. He noted that while there are tailwinds for Net Interest Margin (NIM) into next year, the benefit will be lagged by CD resets. Regarding credit, Wenzel highlighted positive delinquency trends, strong vintage performance, and the impact of credit actions, stating the company is tracking toward its long-term loss target of 5.5% to 6%.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to American Express Co (AXP) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to American Express Co (AXP) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs inquired about the increasingly competitive premium card market, with upcoming refreshes from rivals, asking about the risk of too many players chasing the same customer and the potential impact on long-term pricing power.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Stephen Squeri responded that the competitive environment has been intense for over a decade and that the increased focus on premium has been beneficial for customers and for American Express. He asserted that competition has shifted to value, access, and service, areas where Amex excels. Squeri concluded that pricing power is tied to the value delivered, and Amex will continue to lead through its superior product offerings and established assets.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to American Express Co (AXP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash questioned American Express's 2025 revenue growth guidance of 8-10%, asking why it wasn't fully aligned with the 10%+ long-term aspiration and what headwinds could lead to results at the lower end of the range.

    Answer

    CEO Stephen Squeri clarified that the guidance is in line with their aspiration, with 10% at the high end. He explained that 2025 performance is primarily a "billing story." If the strong billings momentum from Q4 continues, revenue should reach the high end of the range. If billings growth is similar to the full-year 2024 average, results will be in the middle. He noted that NII growth moderated as customers finished rebuilding balances, making billings the key variable for 2025.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to American Express Co (AXP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash from Goldman Sachs followed up by asking about the drivers of EPS growth into 2025 if billed business growth does not accelerate, and whether mid-teens EPS growth can be sustained in that scenario.

    Answer

    CEO Stephen Squeri affirmed that mid-teens EPS growth is sustainable even with 6% billings growth, pointing to the current year's performance and ongoing new card acquisitions. CFO Christophe Le Caillec added that this year's strong EPS growth was achieved despite an $800 million increase in marketing, highlighting the earnings power of the business model.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs inquired about the drivers of recent loan growth, particularly the contribution from the private bank, and the overall sentiment among borrowers for the remainder of the year. He also asked about the strategies being implemented to protect the net interest margin (NIM) amidst potential future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Bruce Van Saun described the quarter as an "inflection point" with net loan growth across all business lines. Head of Consumer Banking Brendan Coughlin highlighted strong HELOC originations and the launch of a new credit card suite. Head of Commercial Banking Don McCree noted that headwinds from balance sheet optimization are fading, with growth led by the private client complex. In response to the NIM question, CFO John Woods affirmed the medium-term guidance of 3.25% to 3.50%, stating it holds even in a more dovish rate environment, and mentioned the bank is opportunistically adding forward-starting hedges to protect against downside risk.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash asked for expectations on loan growth, particularly whether corporate clients are confident enough to borrow more, and if the bank should accelerate its organic growth initiatives in the Southeast.

    Answer

    CEO Tim Spence expressed confidence in consumer loan growth from diverse platforms and noted that while commercial M&A-driven demand is muted, inventory builds and equipment purchases are supporting borrowing. He confirmed they have already significantly accelerated Southeast branch openings to 50-60 per year and are investing heavily in marketing to support this rapid pace, limited only by finding quality locations and zoning approvals.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Rocket Companies Inc (RKT) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to Rocket Companies Inc (RKT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ryan Nash inquired about Rocket's 2025 outlook for revenue and operating leverage, considering Q1 performance, April's market softness, and brand investments, and also asked if the recent acquisitions accelerate or increase market share goals.

    Answer

    CEO Varun Krishna explained that market volatility in April reversed Q1's momentum, impacting consumer confidence. CFO Brian Brown added that the Q2 outlook reflects a challenging April for both margin and volume, but anticipates sequential improvement in May and June. Brown also projected that marketing spend would decrease by approximately $100 million in the second half of the year and noted the company has the option to convert excess operational capacity into cost savings if market conditions do not improve.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Rocket Companies Inc (RKT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash asked for clarification on the $100 million Q1 cost increase, questioning how much is recurring and how the company will achieve operating leverage given the parallel growth in revenue and costs.

    Answer

    CFO Brian Brown explained the cost increase consists of recurring variable costs tied to higher production, an opportunistic marketing spend at Rocket Money, and a $50 million front-loaded investment for the brand restage. He noted that marketing spend is typically concentrated in the first half of the year to align with the home buying season.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Rocket Companies Inc (RKT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash asked for Rocket's 2025 outlook regarding market size and market share goals, and how the relationship between revenue and costs might evolve. He also followed up on the MSR strategy, inquiring about the 2025 bulk purchase market and the company's appetite for more acquisitions.

    Answer

    CEO Varun Krishna expressed optimism for 2025, citing forecasts for a market over $2 trillion and improving housing fundamentals. CFO Brian Brown projected increased operating leverage in 2025, building on 2024's ~20% EBITDA margin in a tougher market. Regarding MSRs, Brown confirmed they remain a top capital allocation priority, highlighting the Annaly subservicing deal as a capital-light way to grow the portfolio. Krishna added that this platform extensibility is a core strategic advantage.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to Regions Financial Corp (RF) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to Regions Financial Corp (RF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash asked about the sources of expense efficiencies funding new investments and the outlook for generating positive operating leverage. He also inquired about capital targets, including the CET1 ratio with AOCI, and plans for capital returns in 2025.

    Answer

    Executive David Turner explained that efficiencies are being driven by managing salaries, occupancy costs, and vendor spend. He affirmed a commitment to positive operating leverage. Regarding capital, Turner stated the priority is organic growth, followed by dividends, with a goal of managing the CET1 ratio inclusive of AOCI toward 9.25%-9.75%. He noted that share buybacks would be flexible depending on loan growth and would be lower in Q1 due to the final CECL amortization.

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    Ryan Nash's questions to First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCA) leadership

    Ryan Nash's questions to First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ryan Nash asked when management expects net interest income and margin to bottom out, what actions were taken to reduce asset sensitivity, the drivers of higher repayments in Global Fund Banking, and the outlook for SVB deposit flows.

    Answer

    CFO Craig Nix projected that both NII and NIM (ex-accretion) would likely trough in the second half of 2025. Executive Tom Eklund explained they moderated actions to reduce asset sensitivity to prepare for repaying a purchase money note. Executive Marc Cadieux clarified that higher GFB repayments are due to the short-term nature of the loans in a higher rate environment, not increased competition, and expressed optimism for when investment activity resumes.

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