Ryan Schiller

Ryan Schiller asked for an update on Embecta's pen injector project, seeking insights into its development timeline, potential revenue contribution, and the total addressable market (TAM) or market sizing. He also inquired about the projected penetration curve to achieve the previously stated $100 million-plus GLP-1 revenue opportunity by 2033, especially in light of the $10 million guidance for 2026.

Answer

Devdatt Kurdikar, CEO of Embecta Corp, clarified that it is a 'pen injector project' in early phases, and while confident in R&D, manufacturing, and channel capabilities, it is premature to discuss specific timing, TAM, or market sizing. Regarding the GLP-1 opportunity, Kurdikar reaffirmed confidence in the $100M+ target, noting that initial assumptions already accounted for oral GLP-1s and only specific indications. He highlighted potential upsides from expanded reimbursement, additional indications, the Zepbound KwikPen, and new discussions with branded pharma. The ramp-up is expected to be driven by patent expirations, with generic launches anticipated in key international markets in 2026.

Ryan Schiller inquired about the pen injector project, asking for an estimated timeline for development, potential revenue contribution, and insights into the total addressable market (TAM) or market sizing. He also asked for more details on the penetration curve for the GLP-1 opportunity, aiming to understand how Embecta plans to achieve the projected $100 million-plus revenue by 2033, given the 2026 guidance.

Answer

CEO Devdatt Kurdikar stated that the pen injector project is in early phases, and it's too soon to discuss specific timing or market sizing, but expressed confidence in Embecta's R&D and manufacturing capabilities and established channel relationships. Regarding GLP-1s, Kurdikar reiterated confidence in the $100 million-plus opportunity, noting that initial assumptions for this figure already accounted for oral GLP-1s, and potential upsides include market expansion, other indications, expanded reimbursement, and the recent FDA approval of Lilly's Zepbound KwikPen. He also mentioned early discussions with branded pharma companies for drugs in development. The ramp-up to $100 million is expected to be driven largely by patent expirations, with generic launches anticipated in markets like China, India, Brazil, and Canada in 2026.

Ryan Schiller from Wolfe Research asked for more details on Embecta's strategy to expand its product portfolio by distributing products for other companies. He sought to understand the specific types of products that would fit Embecta's commercial model and the potential timing for when these initiatives might begin contributing to financial results.

Answer

CEO Devdatt Kurdikar explained that the product strategy is tailored to leverage regional commercial strengths. For example, in China, they could add hospital-focused products; in the U.S. and parts of Europe, products fitting the retail pharmacy channel; and in Germany and Japan, products for endocrinologists. He stated that the company is actively working on adding these products and expects to provide more concrete examples and details at the upcoming Analyst Day in May 2025.