Ryan Thomas

Ryan Thomas, on behalf of Chris Wetherbee, asked about the elevated second-half run rate's implications for GXO's exit from 2026 into 2027. He also inquired about the drivers behind Q4 organic growth being lighter than expected, including peak season dynamics and volume by vertical/geography, and why strong Q4 productivity wouldn't fully translate to Q1 and Q2 2026 EBITDA.

Answer

CEO Patrick Kelleher detailed the sales and implementation cycles, citing strong new business wins and a growing pipeline as drivers for accelerated growth into late 2026 and 2027. CFO Baris Oran added that Wincanton integration benefits would boost H2 2026. CSO Kristine Kubacki highlighted significant pipeline growth in strategic verticals. Baris Oran explained Q4 organic growth was impacted by milder volumes in Europe and the UK, and that 2026 EBITDA margin expansion is tempered by strategic investments for long-term productivity.

Ryan Thomas inquired about the implications of the elevated second-half 2026 run rate for 2027. He also asked for an explanation of Q4 organic growth being slightly below expectations, including peak season dynamics, volumes by vertical and geography, and why solid productivity gains in Q4 might not fully translate to Q1 and Q2 EBITDA.

Answer

Patrick Kelleher (CEO, GXO) attributed the accelerating growth in Q4 2026 and into 2027 to the typical 6-9 month sales cycle and 6-month ramp-up for new operations, bolstered by a growing pipeline. Baris Oran (CFO, GXO) added that Wincanton integration benefits would be more visible in H2 2026. Kristine Kubacki (Chief Strategy Officer, GXO) highlighted strong momentum in strategic verticals. Baris Oran (CFO, GXO) explained Q4 growth was strong overall, with milder volume trends in Continental Europe and the UK, and that 2026 EBITDA margin expansion (20 bps) reflects targeted investments impacting short-term margin acceleration.