Sam Burwell

Sam Burwell asked about the reconciliation between the increased investment capacity and the maintained 5% longer-term growth trajectory, and potential underappreciated upside in 2027-2028 EBITDA growth. He also inquired about the Venezuela situation's impact on Mainline Optimization (MLO) 2 and 3, and the framework for Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) growth.

Answer

Greg Ebel (President and CEO) expressed confidence in the 5% growth, noting that capacity grows with EBITDA and project additions. Pat Murray (EVP and CFO) affirmed that capacity growth was anticipated with successful project execution. Greg Ebel highlighted positive dynamics like WCSB production growth, increased U.S. gas distribution rate base growth, and potential to exceed power CapEx estimates. Colin Gruending (EVP and President, Liquids Pipelines) confirmed the WCSB growth framework and the need for iterative Mainline expansion, with MLO 2 addressing a 2028 egress bottleneck. Greg Ebel emphasized that Venezuela is a supplement, not a replacement, and Enbridge's system is designed to win in various scenarios.

Sam Burwell asked about the reconciliation of increased investment capacity with the 5% long-term growth trajectory, potential underappreciated upside in 2027-2028 EBITDA growth, and the impact of Venezuela on Mainline Optimization (MLO) projects and the framework for WCSB crude clearing via the Gulf Coast.

Answer

President and CEO Greg Ebel and EVP and CFO Pat Murray expressed confidence in the 5% growth target, noting that investment capacity grows with EBITDA. They highlighted positive dynamics from WCSB production growth, increased rate base growth in U.S. gas distribution, and potential for exceeding power CapEx estimates. EVP and President of Liquids Pipelines Colin Gruending stated that iterative Mainline expansion is a winning formula, with MLO 2 addressing the 2028 egress bottleneck. Greg Ebel emphasized that Venezuelan barrels are a supplement, not a replacement, and Enbridge's system is designed to win in various scenarios.

Sam Burwell asked about the outlook for improving full path volumes downstream of the Mainline, noting low volumes in Q3 and expected headwinds in Q4 despite record Mainline throughput. He also questioned the 100,000 barrels per day capacity for Southern Illinois, given a higher open season figure of 200,000 barrels per day.

Answer

Greg Ebel, President and CEO, attributed the weaker downstream volumes to unusually strong demand and high utilization from upper Pad 2 refiners in the last two quarters, expecting Q4 to be slightly better and expressing long-term confidence in the path, supported by oversubscribed open seasons. He clarified that the 100,000 bpd capacity for Southern Illinois was chosen as the most efficient 'sweet spot' for overall project economics, despite oversubscription for a higher volume.

Sam Burwell asked about the Southern Illinois Connector and full path volumes, noting record mainline volumes but lower downstream volumes in Q3 and expected headwinds in Q4. He sought a view on when this might improve and inquired if the 100,000 barrels per day capacity on Southern Illinois had implications, given a higher open season figure.

Answer

Greg Ebel, President and CEO, clarified that weaker downstream volumes were a temporary anomaly due to unusually strong demand in the upper Pad 2 market (higher absorption of mainline throughput), driven by lower product levels and high refinery uptime. He expects Q4 to improve and has long-term confidence, noting oversubscription in two open seasons. He explained that 100,000 bpd capacity was chosen as the most efficient sweet spot despite higher open season figures.

Sam Burwell from Jefferies Financial Group Inc. asked about Enbridge's appetite for developing a new greenfield gas pipeline in Canada to serve a pending LNG project.

Answer

President & CEO Gregory Ebel and EVP of Gas Transmission Cynthia Hansen confirmed they are well-positioned with assets like the certified Pacific Trails pipeline project and strong indigenous partnerships. However, they stressed that any such project would need to offer superior returns compared to existing assets to compete for capital, given the company is not 'opportunity poor'.

Sam Burwell asked for an update on the proposed crude pipeline in Alberta, noting its absence from the major projects list, and inquired about potential Keystone XL reboot discussions in U.S.-Canada trade. He also asked how South Bow might leverage existing infrastructure for expanding crude egress capacity and when crude spreads are expected to widen, Alberta inventories to normalize, and bond volumes to contribute post-derate lift.

Answer

Bevin Wirzba (President and CEO) stated South Bow's priority is leveraging pre-invested corridors in Alberta and the U.S. for new solutions. He confirmed providing advisory support to Alberta's West Coast project but no further involvement. Regarding trade negotiations, he noted it was 'above our pay grade' but encouraged by dialogue. Wirzba also reiterated views that conditions for wider spreads and increased spot needs would be more favorable in late 2026/early 2027, driven by supply growth exceeding egress capacity.

Sam Burwell asked for an update on the proposed crude pipeline in Alberta, the potential reboot of Keystone XL in trade discussions, and how South Bow might leverage existing infrastructure for crude egress capacity. He also inquired about the timeline for crude spreads to widen, Alberta inventories to normalize, and for bond volumes to contribute once pressure restrictions are lifted.

Answer

Bevin Wirzba, President and CEO, stated that South Bow is leveraging its pre-invested corridors in Alberta and the U.S. for potential solutions and is providing advisory support to Alberta's West Coast project. He noted that trade negotiations are beyond their scope. South Bow anticipates more favorable market conditions, including wider spreads and increased spot needs, in late 2026 to early 2027, driven by supply growth exceeding egress capacity.

Sam Burwell from Jefferies asked for characterization of South Bow's organic and inorganic growth opportunities, including the balance between Canada and the U.S., and questioned how cash flow from the Blackrod project would be allocated.

Answer

President and CEO Bevin Wirzba noted that the company is maturing a large list of opportunities, with a recent increase in prospects on the Canadian side. He clarified that after covering dividends and interest, the priority for cash flows from Blackrod and other sources is to meet deleveraging targets, while maintaining a consistent annual growth capital budget of roughly $100-$130 million.

Sam Burwell asked about the potential for brownfield expansions on TC Energy's system to send more Canadian gas south to the Gulf Coast LNG buildout, inquiring how these projects would rank within the opportunity set. He also sought updates on the Coastal GasLink expansion, specifically regarding Phase 2.

Answer

Tina Faraca (EVP and COO of Natural Gas Pipelines) noted that LNG opportunities are evolving, with TC Energy having placed eight LNG projects into service on the Gulf Coast and building Coastal GasLink to the West Coast. She stated that while there's a corridor for Canadian gas to the Gulf Coast via ANR, the West Coast of Canada presents an incredible opportunity for egress. François Poirier (President and CEO) added that LNG Canada Phase 2 is a project of national interest, with permitting underway, and the decision rests with the LNG facility proponent.

Sam Burwell asked about the potential for brownfield expansions on TC Energy's system to send more Canadian natural gas south to the Gulf Coast, given the LNG buildout, and how these projects would rank within the company's opportunity set. He also requested an update on the Coastal GasLink expansion.

Answer

Tina Faraca, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Natural Gas Pipelines, noted that while past expansions have brought Western Canadian gas to the Gulf Coast via systems like ANR, the West Coast LNG export opportunity (Coastal GasLink) is considered 'incredible.' She confirmed that TC Energy is working closely with LNG Canada to evaluate Phase 2 expansion, supporting their development needs. François Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer, added that LNG Canada Phase 2 is a federally identified project of national interest, with permitting well underway, and the decision now rests with the LNG facility proponent.