Question · Q3 2025
Sam Marklin inquired about the unusual jet to diesel dynamic observed in the quarter, asking if it was due to commodity volatility or more structural macro effects. He then broadened the discussion to macro demand, noting that despite weak consumer sentiment and PMIs, refining margins remain high, questioning what this implies for the 'real' mid-cycle margin environment.
Answer
CCO Rick Hessling described the jet-diesel differential volatility as unprecedented, attributing it to a combination of inventory and supply imbalances that have since corrected, confirming it's not structural. On macro demand, Rick Hessling stated that MPC's internal demand signals are strong, with global demand continuing to grow. He noted modest growth in diesel and jet, flat-to-slightly lower gasoline demand, and strong signals for over-the-road and container business. He concluded that market tightness and disruptions indicate a higher mid-cycle margin environment.