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    Samuel McHugh

    Research Analyst at BNP Paribas

    Samuel McHugh is the Head of Telecom Equity Research at BNP Paribas Exane, overseeing US telecoms and media sector coverage and coordinating global telecom research. He covers an extensive range of companies in the technology and telecom sectors, including top performers such as Frontier Communications, with a historical average rating return of 6.6% and a one-year transaction profit rate of 53.85%; his most successful call generated a +49% return. McHugh has spent eight years at BNP Paribas Exane after joining in 2015, following five years at Sanford Bernstein in European telecom research, with earlier recognition as the #1 European Telecom Services analyst by Institutional Investor. He holds a Master of Mathematics from the University of York, adding robust quantitative expertise to his analytical credentials.

    Samuel McHugh's questions to EchoStar (SATS) leadership

    Samuel McHugh's questions to EchoStar (SATS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Samuel McHugh from BNP Paribas Asset Management asked for the quantitative impact of government support programs on net adds, the rationale for buying back Hughes secured bonds over potentially cheaper unsecured bonds, and for clarification on whether MVNO contracts preclude white-labeling services.

    Answer

    CEO Hamid Akhavan explained that former government program customers are now integrated into their general prepaid brands, so they do not break out the impact. He reiterated that the bond buyback was an opportunistic decision based on availability and price, not a deeper strategy. COO John Swieringa and Hamid Akhavan both clarified that any wholesale deal utilizing their roaming partners would require new, custom business negotiations and would not be automatic.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to EchoStar (SATS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh asked about the payment structure of the AT&T Network Service Agreement, specifically if payments are at their peak and how quickly they will decline as customers are moved on-net, and if there are any catch-up payment provisions.

    Answer

    President of Technology and COO John Swieringa confirmed that EchoStar is on track with its minimum commitments to both T-Mobile and AT&T. He positioned the agreements as a competitive asset, not a liability, as they provide subscribers with broader coverage than any single network. He emphasized a focus on a P&L mindset and leveraging these partnerships for profitable acquisition and efficient CapEx management, rather than simply racing to spend.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to Altice USA (ATUS) leadership

    Samuel McHugh's questions to Altice USA (ATUS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Samuel McHugh asked how the company is balancing the risk of cannibalization versus driving new gross additions with its new low-income offer. He also questioned the worsening trends in the West footprint and when an improvement might be expected.

    Answer

    Executive Dennis Mathew explained that the company is mitigating cannibalization risk through a disciplined and gated rollout of the low-income offer, using AI tools to optimize for customer lifetime value. Regarding the West, he noted that while markets with new fiber entrants are challenging, the company is seeing year-over-year improvements in gross adds and churn in markets with more mature overbuilders, and is deploying new playbooks to improve performance across the entire footprint.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to T-Mobile US (TMUS) leadership

    Samuel McHugh's questions to T-Mobile US (TMUS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Samuel McHugh of BNP Paribas inquired about the potential for a significant step-up in churn in Q2 due to recent price increases and asked whether T-Mobile had restrained marketing spend in Q1 given its strong EBITDA results.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Sievert stated that any churn impact from pricing changes on legacy plans is temporary and was anticipated, as the rollout was managed via a test-and-learn approach. He argued the nature of competition is changing, but not the overall intensity. Jon Freier, President of the Consumer Group, added that Q1 competition was device-focused and consistent with prior quarters. CFO Peter Osvaldik confirmed they optimize for value creation each quarter and plan for further investment in Q2 and beyond.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to T-Mobile US (TMUS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh from BNP Paribas requested an update on the regulatory progress of the U.S. Cellular acquisition and asked if recent ARPU strength was driven more by customer mix or by price adjustments.

    Answer

    CFO Peter Osvaldik stated that ARPA growth was driven by core expansion of customer relationships, with rate plan optimization being a minor component. On the deals, Executive Michael Katz provided timelines, expecting Lumos to close early next year and U.S. Cellular mid-next year. General Counsel Mark Nelson added that the U.S. Cellular deal is pro-consumer, leading to lower prices and better coverage, expressing confidence in eventual clearance.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS (VZ) leadership

    Samuel McHugh's questions to VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS (VZ) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Samuel McHugh asked why Verizon included a tariff caveat in its guidance if management felt relaxed about the issue, and questioned whether broadband market weakness was due to churn or lower gross adds.

    Answer

    CEO Hans Vestberg clarified he is not 'relaxed' on tariffs but noted that Verizon's CapEx exposure is small and manageable, while significant handset tariffs would need to be passed on to consumers. Consumer Group CEO Sowmyanarayan Sampath described the broadband market as normal and competitive, stating that Verizon's segmentation strategy is driving strong net adds, Fios churn is at a record low, and FWA churn is showing sequential improvement.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS (VZ) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh asked about the phasing of wireless service revenue headwinds and tailwinds throughout 2025. He also questioned if AI-related sales were now material enough to signal a definitive inflection point for Verizon Business EBITDA.

    Answer

    CFO Tony Skiadas detailed that revenue growth will be supported by price-ups, volume growth, and an improving prepaid profile in the second half, while promo amortization will peak in 2025. Business Group CEO Kyle Malady noted that while AI Connect revenue was small in Q4, the Business segment's EBITDA improvement was driven by a combination of factors, including cost focus and FWA growth, with positive trends expected to continue.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS (VZ) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh of BNP Paribas asked about the expected phasing of wireless service revenue headwinds (promo amortization) and tailwinds (price-ups) throughout 2025. He also inquired about the materiality of AI-related sales and the confidence in reaching an inflection point for Business segment EBITDA.

    Answer

    CFO Tony Skiadas detailed that the $2 billion in service revenue growth at the midpoint is driven by carry-over pricing actions, improving consumer volume, stable business volumes, and scaling FWA. He noted the prepaid business should become a tailwind in the back half of 2025, while the promo amortization headwind will peak in 2025 and ease toward year-end. CEO Hans Vestberg and Business Group CEO Kyle Malady expressed cautious optimism for the Business segment, noting that while AI Connect revenue was small but impactful in Q4, the positive EBITDA trend is driven by a relentless focus on costs, strong wireless and FWA growth, and new opportunities like their partnership with Brightspeed. Malady highlighted three consecutive quarters of sequential EBITDA growth.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to Cable One (CABO) leadership

    Samuel McHugh's questions to Cable One (CABO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh inquired about the expected long-term fiber overlap percentage in Cable One's footprint and asked if the Q4 underlying residential subscriber loss rate should be considered a reasonable run rate for 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Todd Koetje stated that while fiber overlap is expected to increase further, driven by incumbent telcos, much of the build is likely complete, and Cable One is comfortable competing in these markets. CEO Julia Laulis asserted that the Q4 loss rate is not the expected run rate for 2025, citing unique Q4 headwinds and new, effective growth tactics. While declining to give specific market share data, Laulis noted that in tenured competitive markets, the company typically returns to growth after a 12-19 month normalization period.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to Cable One (CABO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh questioned whether Cable One can return to subscriber growth while simultaneously maintaining stable or growing ARPU, given consensus expectations. He also requested an update on the company's fiber overlap percentage.

    Answer

    President and CEO Julia Laulis stated that the company's primary goal is to grow broadband revenue and acknowledged the challenge of growing both subscribers and ARPU at the same time, noting that year-to-date, broadband subscribers have grown absent ACP losses. CFO Todd Koetje confirmed that the fiber overlap in their network remains consistent with the previously reported figure of below 40%.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to Lumen Technologies (LUMN) leadership

    Samuel McHugh's questions to Lumen Technologies (LUMN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh asked if the 2028 vision for 47 million intercity fiber miles relies on securing new PCF deals and whether new fiber routes could expand the potential for the mass market fiber business.

    Answer

    CEO Kathleen Johnson confirmed that the 47 million-mile projection is based entirely on business that has already been signed and does not include any potential new deals. She also clarified that the company views its intercity fiber network strategy and its mass market fiber-to-the-home build as separate initiatives.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR) leadership

    Samuel McHugh's questions to Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh asked for details on the new self-install option, including the customer process and its expected impact on the cost to connect new homes.

    Answer

    CEO Nick Jeffery explained that self-install is available when a new customer moves into a previously fiber-connected home, simply requiring them to plug in a router. He noted this will significantly reduce truck rolls and costs over time. CFO Scott Beasley added that the cost to connect is currently at the high end of the $600-$800 target range, and self-install will help bring this cost toward the low end by eliminating the need for a drop, ONT installation, and a technician visit.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Samuel McHugh asked for color on the penetration rates of the 2023 expansion cohort, which appeared more similar to the 2021 build than the 2022 build. He also requested clarification on the Q1 cash flow impact from pension and post-retirement liabilities versus the full-year guidance.

    Answer

    CFO Scott Beasley advised against drawing conclusions from a single quarterly cohort, stating that penetration rates are on target overall despite variations in geographic and build type mixes. Regarding the pension, he explained that the Q1 cash flow change included a $52 million cash contribution plus a non-cash pension revaluation due to changes in discount rates and a retirement package, with more details to be provided in the 10-Q filing.

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    Samuel McHugh's questions to Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR) leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    Asked if the 45% long-term penetration target is still appropriate or if there's upside, and sought clarification on the dynamics of the vendor financing balance for 2024.

    Answer

    The 45% penetration target is considered a minimum, not a ceiling, as many markets are already performing above that level. Regarding vendor financing, cash and accrued capital investment are expected to be very similar in 2024, with no material change in the outstanding balance anticipated.

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