Samuel McKinney

Samuel McKinney followed up on the challenge of passing through rising mill prices, specifically asking if this struggle was more pronounced for certain products like aluminum. He also asked about the Q1 same-store volume guidance being above historical seasonality and if it indicates restocking or increased activity from major industrial customers. Finally, he inquired about the increased revolver capacity and the likelihood of using it for M&A before synergy achievement, and what gaps the combined portfolio might have.

Answer

Eddie Lehner (CEO, Ryerson) explained that aluminum has been the slowest commodity to propagate price increases, while carbon has seen gradual upward momentum, and stainless has finally caught a bid. Regarding Q1 volume guidance, Lehner attributed it to a stronger market consistent with PMI prints, and improvements made by both Ryerson and Olympic Steel, including bringing capital investments to full operating status. Rick Marabito (President and COO, Olympic Steel) concurred, highlighting recent heavy CapEx investments coming to fruition and the positive market momentum. Lehner stated that M&A is not the priority post-merger, emphasizing hitting synergy targets and boosting performance. Jim Claussen (CFO, Ryerson) added that the ABL was amended for merger support and future growth, but the current focus is on synergies and operations. Rich Manson (SVP of Finance, Olympic Steel) reiterated the focus on achieving the set synergy numbers.

Samuel McKinney from KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about specific products, such as aluminum, where passing through rising mill prices was more challenging in Q4 2025, whether the Q1 2026 same-store volume guidance (mid-teens sequentially) indicates restocking or increased activity from major industrial customers, and the potential use of the increased revolver capacity for M&A before synergy achievement.

Answer

CEO Eddie Lehner explained that aluminum was the slowest commodity to propagate price increases, but it is now picking up, while carbon has seen gradual upward momentum and stainless/nickel have also moved higher. Mr. Lehner and President and COO Rick Marabito attributed the strong Q1 volume guidance to a stronger market consistent with PMI prints, company improvements, Olympic Steel's execution, and recent CapEx investments coming to fruition. Regarding M&A, Mr. Lehner, EVP Andrew Greiff, and SVP of Finance Rich Manson stated that the immediate focus is on achieving the $120 million in synergies and boosting overall performance, with M&A being highly selective given the recent large transaction.

Samuel McKinney from KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about the specific drivers of market share growth in Carbon Long and Plate, asking how recent CapEx projects have contributed to these wins. He also asked for an explanation of the mechanics behind the Q2 tax benefit and whether a similar tailwind could be expected in Q3.

Answer

President, CEO & Director, Edward Lehner, explained that as major investments become fully operational, they improve service consistency, lead times, and quoting speed, which drives transactional business gains. EVP & CFO, James Claussen, clarified that the Q2 tax benefit resulted from lower earnings combined with discrete state tax credits, and guided for a normalized effective tax rate of 25-26% going forward.

Samuel McKinney of KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about the drivers of North American market share growth in Carbon Long and Plate, asking how recent CapEx projects contributed to these gains. He also asked for clarification on a Q2 tax benefit and its potential impact on Q3 earnings.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Edward Lehner explained that as major capital investments are integrated, Ryerson's network becomes more consistent and efficient, improving lead times and service levels, which helps win more transactional business. EVP & CFO James Claussen addressed the tax question, stating the Q2 benefit was from lower earnings and discrete state tax credits, and guided for a normalized effective tax rate of 25-26% going forward.

Samuel McKinney of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. inquired about Ryerson's strategy for managing debt and reducing interest expense, the reasons behind the softer-than-expected Q2 pricing outlook, and the performance of the ryerson.com 3.0 platform.

Answer

President and CEO Eddie Lehner explained that as major CapEx projects conclude and become operational, improved cash flow and EBITDA will naturally facilitate debt reduction. He attributed the Q2 pricing outlook weakness to lagging OEM contract business, particularly in the truck, machinery, and appliance markets. Lehner also noted positive trends for ryerson.com, with an increase in unique transactional customer visits. CFO Jim Claussen added that higher earnings and lower CapEx spend are expected to drive down the leverage ratio.

Samuel McKinney of KeyBanc Capital Markets asked about Ryerson's current inventory levels and days of supply, the impact of reorganization expenses on cost of goods sold and operating expenses, and the expected duration of these costs.

Answer

President and CEO Edward Lehner stated that inventory days of supply can still be reduced by 4 to 5 days while maintaining service levels. He detailed that major reorganization and start-up costs related to University Park, Shelbyville, and the ERP conversion are winding down and should be largely complete by Q1 2025, estimating Q4 costs to be between $8 million and $12 million.

Samuel McKinney of KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about the specific benefits of new processing and automation equipment, the nature of OEM outsourcing work in the Pipe and Tube segment, and recent volume trends for July and August.

Answer

President & COO Andrew Greiff detailed that the new equipment, including high-speed lasers and automation systems, will improve safety and productivity, with a new slitter operational by early next year. He also noted that Pipe and Tube growth is driven by value-add fabrication for industrial OEMs and significant demand from data centers. CEO Rick Marabito added that the financial impact of the new CapEx will be seen starting next year. CFO Richard Manson explained that Q3 is following typical seasonal patterns with an expected 5-6% sequential volume decline from Q2 due to the July holiday slowdown.

Samuel McKinney inquired about the significant Q1 volume increase in carbon flat-rolled steel, asking if it was driven by pull-forward demand. He also asked about the revenue outlook for the pipe and tube segment and the company's M&A appetite following its recent credit facility extension.

Answer

President and COO Andrew Greiff confirmed that a large portion of the 25% sequential volume growth in carbon was due to a pull-ahead in spot business. CEO Rick Marabito added that this growth was double the typical seasonal increase. Regarding pipe and tube, CFO Richard Manson explained that its Q2 outlook is similar to Q1, as it lags the carbon market and is more contract-based. On M&A, Rick Marabito affirmed it remains a key growth strategy, noting the pipeline of potential deals has started to refill, and he would be disappointed not to complete a deal in 2025.

Samuel McKinney inquired about the drivers behind the significant quarter-over-quarter increase in gross profit per ton for the Carbon segment, the factors causing the sales decline in the Pipe & Tube segment in Q4 and its recovery outlook, and the potential impact of the rising Midwest aluminum transaction premium on the Specialty Metals business.

Answer

CFO Richard Manson attributed the Carbon segment's margin strength to the countercyclical nature of higher-margin end-product businesses like Metal Works and growth in galvanized products. CEO Rick Marabito added that a successful expansion of the fabrication business also contributed. For Pipe & Tube, President and COO Andrew Greiff noted a traditional start to Q1, with growth expected from new customers and a strategic shift toward a 50/50 mix of distribution and fabrication. Regarding aluminum, Greiff confirmed the Midwest premium has risen but stated that the bulk of their business is contractual, which mitigates spot market volatility.

Samuel McKinney asked about the potential for a release of pent-up demand post-election, the drivers of the Pipe & Tube segment's high gross margin, segment volume behavior, the sales contribution from Central Tube & Bar, and the potential market impact of Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel.

Answer

President and COO Andrew Greiff noted potential for a spot market rebound but not a major OEM demand release in Q4. CEO Rick Marabito added that new fabrication business could offset steady OEM demand. CFO Richard Manson clarified the Pipe & Tube margin was inflated by a $2 million LIFO income benefit. Andrew Greiff attributed volume declines to industrial OEM weakness but noted the Central Tube & Bar acquisition is performing well, particularly in data centers. Regarding the U.S. Steel deal, Rick Marabito stated they have a great relationship with U.S. Steel as a customer and expect it to continue regardless of ownership.

Samuel McKinney of KeyBanc Capital Markets asked about the drivers for the strong Q4 gross margin, the outlook for galvanized steel spreads into fiscal 2026, and the strategy for continued success in the automotive market amid OEM destocking.

Answer

CFO Tim Adams clarified that while Q4 is seasonally strong for volume, after adjusting for inventory holding gains, gross margin spreads actually saw compression due to a less rich product mix and market pressure. CEO Geoff Gilmore expressed 'cautious optimism' for galvanized spreads, expecting the 50% tariffs and anti-dumping cases to limit imports and support recovery. For automotive, Gilmore attributed the 5% volume growth to significant market share gains, which are expected to continue offsetting broader market softness and eventually improve the product mix.

Inquired about the strong ferrous volumes and the 'timing of shipments' benefit, the market dynamics for the twitch over zorba premium, and the specific drivers for the Q4 rebar and coil volume increase.

Answer

The company clarified that the 'timing of shipments' benefit was due to a sequential reduction in inventory. The twitch/zorba spread remains compressed due to low auto production, but their investments provide product optionality. The increase in steel volumes was driven by a seasonal pickup in West Coast non-residential construction demand.

Asked about the impact of delayed cargo shipments on Q3 ferrous volumes, the dynamics of the nonferrous market given the tight premium of twitch over zorba, and the outlook for capital expenditures for the next fiscal year.

Answer

The delayed cargo shipments from the previous quarter accounted for about one-third of the sequential increase in ferrous volumes. Regarding nonferrous metals, the company benefits from high zorba prices and uses its operational flexibility to decide whether to process it into twitch based on the premium, which is currently unattractive. No specific CapEx guidance was given for the next fiscal year, but the company has the flexibility to adjust spending while continuing to fund key initiatives.