Sanjay Sakhrani • Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

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Co-Founder and President Sanjiv Das reported that consumer loan performance remains very good, though Pagaya continues to be disciplined and cautious with its underwriting. Co-Founder and CEO Gal Krubiner added that while the company has the capacity to at least double its volume over the next 18 months, the primary focus is on disciplined, profitable growth and increasing GAAP net income rather than chasing volume at all costs.

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Executive Josh Fagen explained that Pagaya's growth is driven by adding partners and products to its network, with levers including model performance and cost of capital. President Sanjiv Das added that predictability is crucial for their large partners. He characterized the current operating environment as stable, with delinquencies down or stable, and noted the guidance is responsibly conservative as it does not assume any interest rate drops in 2025.

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CFO Peter Walker affirmed the company's outlook, stating that print growth is projected to be consistent in Q3 and Q4, with Vehicle Payments improving to 10% organic growth and Corporate Payments remaining in the high teens. President, Chairman & CEO Ronald Clarke added that there are no significant concerning trends in same-store sales, as the metric is nearly flat and stable across categories, with no material signs of client health deterioration.

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CFO Peter Walker affirmed the company's outlook, projecting consistent print growth rates for Q3 and Q4, with Vehicle Payments improving to 10% organic growth and Corporate Payments remaining in the high teens. President, Chairman & CEO, Ronald Clarke, added that there are no significant concerning economic trends visible in same-store sales, which are nearly flat across all categories.

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CEO John Caplan highlighted the 'grit' and entrepreneurial nature of their customers, who are focused on globalizing their businesses, and noted the de minimis tariff impact is negligible. CFO Bea Ordonez addressed the stablecoin question, stating that Payoneer is well-positioned to leverage the technology, not be disrupted by it, by solving the 'last mile challenge' of off-ramping to local currency and abstracting away complexity for users.

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CFO Bea Ordonez responded that lower-level, broad-based tariffs are not expected to have a material impact as they are typically absorbed within the supply chain. She noted it was difficult to identify a Q1 volume pull-forward due to other factors but confirmed April trends were stable. CEO John Caplan explained the ICP count declined because the company is now focused on maximizing profitable revenue from larger, higher-quality customers rather than the sheer quantity of ICPs.

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CFO Bea Ordonez explained that the guidance is pragmatic, assuming marketplace volume growth normalizes to high-single digits and B2B growth hits 25%. She noted that ARPU expansion is driven by the higher-yielding B2B business, cross-selling products like Card, and ongoing pricing initiatives. Regarding tariffs, she emphasized Payoneer's diversified business model provides resilience against most moderate trade policy changes.

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CEO John Caplan attributed the 57% B2B volume growth to targeted acquisition, new vertical expansion, and improved customer experience. CFO Bea Ordonez explained the Q4 revenue guidance reflects tougher comps and macro prudence, consistent with medium-term targets. She noted the expected rise in transaction costs is due to seasonal business mix shifts and serves as a good run-rate indicator for 2025.

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CEO Taylor Lauber identified SkyTab's continued adoption and the core payments platform's expansion as the largest organic opportunities. He explained that the 'most likely' scenario involves reinvesting capital to accelerate growth, using acquisitions like Vectron and SmartPay as distribution channels in new markets. He believes combining Shift4's products with Global Blue's reach will accelerate growth for both.

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President Taylor Lauber characterized consumer spending as mixed, noting a persistent low single-digit same-store sales decline in restaurants since summer but highlighting strength in sports and entertainment and a rebound in hotels in October. CEO Jared Isaacman discussed SkyTab's strong progress, including upcoming wins in the U.K. and Ireland, and noted that talent from recent acquisitions is being repurposed to accelerate SkyTab's development and global expansion.

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President Taylor Lauber described consumer spending as mixed, noting a persistent but modest same-store sales decline in restaurants off historic highs, a September dip in hotels that rebounded in October, and continued strength in sports. CEO Jared Isaacman highlighted that SkyTab's progress remains strong, with install velocity increasing and talent from recent acquisitions like Revel and Vectron being repurposed to accelerate its feature development and global rollout, including in the U.K. and Ireland.

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CFO Sachin Mehra confirmed that the lapping impact from prior wins, such as Citizens and Wells Fargo, became more pronounced in Q2 and will persist through the second half of the year. Regarding Capital One, he stated that guidance includes their best estimate for the debit migration, with a minimal net revenue impact expected in 2025 and the majority to be felt in the following year. CEO Michael Miebach added that the credit services partnership with Capital One remains strong.

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CEO Michael Miebach affirmed that consumer spending fundamentals remain stable and engaged. CFO Sachin Mehra added that the Q1 revenue beat was driven by hard-to-predict FX volatility and timing benefits from lower rebates and incentives, which are expected to normalize. He noted some moderation in travel to the U.S. is being offset by strength in other regions, underscoring the resilience of their diversified model.

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CFO Sachin Mehra confirmed the primary driver was strong, healthy spending from both consumers and commercial clients. He noted that while share gains from past wins are a consistent contributor, the quarter-over-quarter acceleration was due to underlying spending trends rather than new share shifts. He also mentioned a minor lift from crypto-related purchases and a pull-forward of travel spend.

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Chief Financial Officer Sachin Mehra explained that while the consumer remains healthy, the early Q4 U.S. volume uptick was partly due to one-time factors like calendar mix and the timing of social security payments. He noted that despite Fed rate reductions, the yield curve has risen, but overall consumer confidence and spending patterns remain strong.

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CEO Ryan McInerney expressed optimism that stablecoins will be an accelerant to growth. He argued they can help digitize cash-heavy emerging markets and increase penetration in the enormous cross-border remittance and B2B markets. He believes stablecoins will help accelerate Visa's progress in digitizing global payment flows rather than diluting the opportunity.

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CEO Ryan McInerney expressed optimism, stating that stablecoins represent a significant opportunity for Visa. He argued that in emerging markets, they could accelerate the digitization of cash. In cross-border payments, they could help Visa expand its penetration of the enormous remittance and B2B TAMs by enabling faster and more efficient flows on platforms like Visa Direct. He believes stablecoins can accelerate progress in digitizing both consumer and commercial payment flows.

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CEO Ryan McInerney expressed optimism, stating that stablecoins could accelerate Visa's progress. He identified two key opportunities: 1) accelerating cash digitization in emerging markets where stablecoins are adopted, and 2) expanding Visa's penetration in the massive cross-border remittance and B2B payment markets by enhancing the Visa Direct platform.

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CFO Chris Suh stated there was some minor evidence of a spending pull-forward in early April but it was not meaningful to overall growth. For cross-border assumptions, he explained that Visa is using an average of March and April data to normalize for various factors, including currency weakness and the slowdown in Canada-to-U.S. travel. He reiterated that the U.S. inbound corridor is a small percentage of global travel volume.

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Chris Suh, Chief Financial Officer, acknowledged the strong Q1 results but emphasized that it is only one quarter into the fiscal year and that the company will provide further updates on the second half as the year progresses.

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CFO Chris Suh confirmed that Q4 commercial volume growth was impacted by days mix. He reiterated optimism about the long-term opportunity in new flows, anticipating that commercial volumes will eventually grow faster than consumer volumes.

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COO & CFO Jamie Miller confirmed that the key growth drivers remain consistent but noted a ~2-point interest rate headwind in H2 and tougher comps for credit. Regarding transaction losses, she explained the Q2 uptick to 9 bps was due to normalization and new product launches, and she expects the full-year run rate to be approximately 8 bps.

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CFO and COO Jamie Miller attributed the strength primarily to credit performance in both consumer and merchant lending, noting a favorable comparison to the prior year. While credit will remain a primary driver, she reiterated the full-year guidance for mid-single-digit OVAS growth, which incorporates an anticipated $150 million headwind from interest rates.

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CFO Jamie Miller reiterated that U.S. branded checkout saw a 3-point sequential growth improvement in Q4. She emphasized that this was pure growth off a base, reflecting the impact of innovation focused on the U.S. market, particularly around mobile, as the company moved past lapping difficult comparisons from earlier in the year.

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CFO Pete Graham reiterated that the wildfire impact was a timing shift between quarters and that year-to-date performance gives them confidence in their full-year guidance. CEO Jonathan Witter provided the breakdown, stating the opportunity is approximately two-thirds Grad PLUS and one-third Parent PLUS.

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CEO Jon Witter declined to provide a specific number on PLUS underwritability without a concrete proposal but elaborated on the company's policy stance. He stated the federal government does 'too much for too many, and not enough for those who really need it,' advocating for more grants for disadvantaged students, caps on un-underwritten federal loans, and thoughtful bankruptcy reform for student debt.

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CFO Pete Graham stated that confidence in the full-year guidance is driven by the expected continued improvement in the overall reserve rate. He noted NIM will face pressure for another 1-2 quarters but mentioned a potential loan sale is an option to manage capital if origination growth remains high. He explained the FFELP portfolio was sold because it had become a small, non-core asset creating operational complexity.

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EVP & CFO Perry Beberman explained the tighter revenue guidance was due to faster-than-expected delinquency improvements, which lowered billed late fees. CEO Ralph Andretta added that with top partners secured long-term and a robust new business pipeline, the company is now in a position to simultaneously invest in growth, strengthen the balance sheet, and return value to shareholders.

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EVP and CFO Perry Beberman acknowledged the economic uncertainty, particularly around tariffs, but noted that hard data on consumer health remains solid. He explained the credit reserve maintains a prudent risk overlay with outsized weighting on adverse scenarios to account for this uncertainty. CEO Ralph Andretta added that the company does not plan to roll back recent pricing changes made in anticipation of the now-vacated late fee rule, and partners are supportive of this decision. Perry Beberman confirmed these factors are included in the current guidance.

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EVP & CFO Perry Beberman stated that while the company is on the path to its medium-term targets, elevated gross losses remain a headwind that needs to normalize from over 8% to 6%. He noted that improving credit quality temporarily reduces billed late fees, and Fed rate cuts pressure yields, but CFPB mitigation actions are building. President & CEO Ralph Andretta added that Q4 showed positive 'green shoots' in spending and that new 2024 portfolios will mature in 2025, making him cautiously optimistic for loan growth.

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EVP and CFO Perry Beberman noted that while credit actions have helped stabilize delinquencies, the economy remains challenging for their customers. He expects gradual improvement in 2025, contingent on the macro environment. Beberman clarified that hurricane-related impacts on credit metrics would begin in October and that fully offsetting the late fee rule's financial impact is a multi-year process, not something achievable within a 12-month window.

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CFO Jagtar Narula indicated the second half's ~4% ex-fuel growth is a good starting point, driven by a recovery in Corporate Payments. CEO Melissa Smith clarified the BP deal's 0.5-1% revenue impact applies to the first 12 months after the 2026 conversion. For the HSA TAM expansion, she noted the focus is on marketing to newly eligible individuals in the next open enrollment season, as no product changes are needed.

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CEO Melissa Smith explained that local fleet same-store sales were down 3.9% due to weather and economic softness, which outweighed the pull-forward seen in the smaller over-the-road (OTR) segment. She noted that this softness was factored into the full-year guide. For Corporate Payments, she detailed that the non-travel portion is diverse, with some concentration in healthcare and fintech, and has seen softness in discretionary T&E spend, though new AP Direct sales are offsetting this.

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CEO Melissa Smith attributed the updated 5-10% long-term organic growth target to normalized growth in travel and a maturing HSA market. She highlighted investments in embedded payments and direct AP to capture market share. CFO Jagtar Narula confirmed a onetime earnings impact was from a large travel customer's contract renegotiation, which is being partially offset by cost actions.

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CEO Melissa Smith described the spending decline as recent and broad-based across industries and geographies, attributing it to customer uncertainty around elections and interest rates rather than definitively calling it a broader macro signal. On Corporate Payments, CFO Jagtar Narula stated that the company is not concerned about any specific major renewals for the upcoming year, while Melissa Smith noted a continued focus on navigating weakness in airline spend.

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Richard Fairbank, Founder, Chairman & CEO, confirmed plans to lean into growth with the Discover franchise, praising its products and customer experience. CFO Andrew Young addressed the accounting question by pointing to the detailed disclosures in the earnings presentation appendix and 8-K filing, stating the impacts were too complex for a simple summary but provided visibility in the filings.

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CFO Andrew Young clarified that the synergy timeline assumptions from the deal announcement are being pushed back by approximately six months to align with the new closing date. Regarding capital return, he stated that a detailed plan will be formulated after the transaction closes and they have full access to Discover's data, suggesting the current pace of capital return will likely continue in the near term.

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CEO Richard Fairbank confirmed the approval process is moving forward, with active engagement with regulators and recent progress like the finalized proxy statement. He reiterated that they remain well-positioned for approval early in the year. On investments, Mr. Fairbank explained that while they are still separate companies, the plan involves leveraging synergies from overlapping businesses to fund significant, multi-year investments in areas like risk management, international network acceptance, and the Discover brand to unlock long-term value.

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Chairman and CEO Richard Fairbank clarified that credit has stabilized and is now consistent with seasonal patterns, though he noted these patterns have changed due to lower tax refund volumes, resulting in less seasonal amplitude. Regarding normalization, he cited headwinds from a 'delayed charge-off' effect and high interest rates, balanced by tailwinds from rebuilding recovery inventory and moderating inflation. CFO Andrew Young added that the allowance coverage ratio's path will depend on loss forecasts, and even with lower projected losses, coverage may only decline modestly due to uncertainties. He also noted the CECL Day 1 coverage would be closer to 7% after adjusting for the Walmart portfolio.

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President and CEO Brian Doubles clarified that the benefits from credit loosening and the new Walmart program will primarily impact growth in 2026, as these initiatives take time to ramp up. EVP and CFO Brian Wenzel added that while the Walmart launch won't be meaningful to the 2025 growth rate, it provides strong momentum for 2026. On capital, Wenzel reaffirmed the commitment to shareholder returns, noting the $2 billion remaining on the buyback authorization, while Doubles emphasized that winning new programs is also a highly attractive use of capital.

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CEO Brian Doubles reiterated that they are pleased with credit trends but noted there may be an opportunity to methodically open up the credit box in the back half of the year, while staying within their long-term 5.5%-6% NCO target. Regarding large portfolios, Doubles confirmed strong interest but emphasized the need for rigorous discipline, good partner alignment, and returns that compete with other uses of capital like share repurchases.

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EVP and CFO Brian Wenzel explained that the full run-rate benefit of PPPCs will not be realized by the end of 2025, with more to come from finance charges and promotional fees in 2026. He stated that without the late fee rule, PPPCs should drive ROA incrementally higher. President and CEO Brian Doubles added that the competitive environment for deals remains disciplined and that recent weak purchase volume was by design, resulting from proactive credit actions to improve the portfolio's risk profile.

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EVP and CFO Brian Wenzel reiterated guidance for the year-end 2024 reserve rate to be generally in line with year-end 2023 (around 10.3%) and expects it to trend down toward the Day 1 CECL level as delinquencies normalize. Regarding the late fee rule, both Wenzel and CEO Brian Doubles stated the company is planning as if the rule will be implemented and that the timing does not change their goal of reaching neutrality. Any rollback of pricing changes would require a high degree of certainty the rule is defunct and would be a discussion with partners.

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Chairman and CEO Stephen Squeri stated that American Express plans for spending to remain consistent, noting that while airline and lodging spend is softer, goods and services spending remains resilient. He explained that the Amazon and Lowe's portfolio losses were economic decisions and are not expected to have a major impact on the SMB segment. CFO Christophe Le Caillec added that strong new card acquisition provides a stable foundation for future billing growth.

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CEO Stephen Squeri stated there has been no significant consumer spending pull-forward, only minor activity in small business wholesale. He emphasized that while the company can achieve its EPS guidance at 8% revenue growth, he will not sacrifice valuable long-term investment opportunities to hit a short-term number, a strategy consistent with the company's actions during the COVID pandemic.

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CEO Stephen Squeri stated that management retains the flexibility to reinvest revenue outperformance but noted higher EPS is plausible with stronger revenue. He detailed the broad-based Q4 spending lift across consumer, SME, and international segments, with particularly strong travel spend. CFO Christophe Le Caillec added that while the first few weeks of January showed similar strength, the sustainability throughout 2025 remains the key question.

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Chairman and CEO Stephen Squeri confirmed that an acceleration in billed business from its current 6% level would be necessary to reach the 10% revenue growth aspiration. However, he emphasized that the business is now scaled to deliver on its mid-teens EPS growth target even with softer billings, making EPS the primary focus until the economy strengthens.

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Mike Milotich, Interim CEO and CFO, stated that the Board is taking the necessary time to find the right CEO and the search is ongoing. Regarding spending behavior, he explained that Marqeta's view is based on a much broader population of customers across multiple use cases, such as the expansion of BNPL into lower-discretionary categories. This diversification means trends on Marqeta's platform may differ from those of any single customer, including Block.

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Interim CEO and CFO Mike Milotich identified macro factors and the risk of customers delaying program ramps as potential headwinds. On the American Express partnership, he explained it offers a win-win: Marqeta gains access to Amex's strength in B2B lending and loyalty, while Amex can leverage Marqeta's expertise and track record to expand its debit business. This makes Marqeta's platform more comprehensive by including all major networks.

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CEO Simon Khalaf confirmed that the industry-wide nature of these delays was a key topic at the recent Money20/20 conference, noting a 'flight to quality' to Marqeta. CFO Michael Milotich added that the 2025 recovery cadence depends on how quickly the company can work through its program backlog. While he believes they are 'over the hump,' he stated a more precise quarterly outlook for 2025 would be provided in the next earnings call.

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CEO David L. Yowan projected that the full $400 million in expense reductions would be realized by mid-2026. CFO Joe Fisher clarified the current EPS guidance of $1.00-$1.20 includes $0.26 of net expenses slated for removal. Fisher expects the FFELP NIM to remain at the high end of its range in the near term but noted potential pressure from future rate cuts. He expressed confidence in current reserves but said the company continues to monitor trends.

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Edward Bramson, Vice Chair, positioned the company in a turnaround phase, noting the ~$204M expense run-rate is a real target post-TSA, but excludes future cost-saving initiatives. He emphasized the goal is to shift perception from a run-off entity to a growing one. CFO Joe Fisher added that while the company feels appropriately reserved, it continues to monitor rising delinquencies and economic pressures impacting the portfolio.

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CFO Joe Fisher explained that the $21 million adjustment to recovery rates was part of a regular quarterly review, reflecting the challenge of recovering from high-quality borrowers who have already exhausted other programs. Regarding NIM, he noted that while falling rates create a substantial refinance opportunity, they also pressure the FFELP NIM in the short term due to asset/liability repricing lags. He indicated that rate cuts beyond 50 basis points would begin to be offset by an increase in floor income.

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CFO Joe Fisher addressed the consolidation risk, stating that while volatile due to government programs, the company's guidance already accounts for potentially elevated prepayment levels. CEO David L. Yowan discussed the BPS sale, noting strong buyer interest and an expected conclusion in the second half of the year. He explained the sale is a key enabler of expense reduction and could be accretive. Regarding the CFPB, Yowan confirmed the total reserve now exceeds $100 million, reflecting developments in discussions, but declined to provide further details.

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CFO Joe Fisher acknowledged the volatility in consolidation requests but stated the guidance accounts for this risk. CEO David L. Yowan explained the BPS sale would be accretive through significant expense reductions that exceed the lost revenue, with potential for further accretion from the use of proceeds. Regarding the CFPB, he confirmed the total reserve now exceeds $100 million, reflecting recent developments, but declined to provide further details.

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CFO Joel Wilhite expressed satisfaction with achieving over 20% EBITDA margins, noting it demonstrates the business's potential even amid macro uncertainty. He mentioned the company is ahead of schedule on its gross margin targets and reiterated long-term goals of an 80% gross margin and a 30% EBITDA margin, driven by continued operating discipline and expense leverage.

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CFO Joel Wilhite clarified that the Q1 float revenue beat was driven by the timing of customer balances, not interest rate changes. He stated the full-year guidance still incorporates an assumption of approximately 75 basis points in rate cuts in the second half of the year. He also confirmed that the guidance continues to reflect the ongoing macro impact of suppressed discretionary spending.

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