Savanthi Syth

Savanthi Syth asked about the timing and nature of Copa's credit card renewal, specifically the Visa agreement, and the broader opportunities seen within the loyalty program.

Answer

CFO Peter Donkersloot explained that the Visa agreement renewal in Q3 contributed to the 30% year-over-year growth in the loyalty program. He noted that the program is maturing with new non-air partners and is expected to continue growing at a decent rate, albeit slightly slower as it matures. Savanthi also inquired about the breakdown of the 11%-13% capacity growth for 2026. Peter Donkersloot clarified that half of this growth stems from the full-year effect of backloaded 2025 aircraft deliveries, 40% of the remaining half from adding frequencies to existing destinations, and 10% from new routes.

Savanthi Syth asked about the timing and nature of Copa's credit card renewal, specifically the Visa agreement, and the broader opportunities seen within the loyalty program.

Answer

Peter Donkersloot, CFO of Copa Holdings, explained that the Visa agreement renewal contributed to 86% growth in the loyalty program, with overall program growth exceeding 30% year-over-year. He noted the program is maturing with new non-air partners and expects continued, albeit slightly moderating, growth. Syth also inquired about the breakdown of 2026 capacity growth, to which Donkersloot detailed that half comes from the full-year effect of backloaded 2025 aircraft, 40% of the remaining half from adding frequencies to existing destinations, and 10% from new markets.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James Financial inquired about the current demand environment in Copa's key markets and sought an update on Boeing aircraft deliveries and their implications for 2026 capacity.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron described the demand environment as 'healthy,' leading to an increased load factor guidance despite high single-digit industry capacity growth. He confirmed that 2025 aircraft deliveries from Boeing have been arriving early, and the full-year impact of these plus six new planes in 2026 suggests capacity growth will trend slightly higher next year.

Savanthi Syth inquired about the current demand environment, asking if there have been any changes in U.S. point-of-sale strength or other regional differences, and followed up on competitive capacity pressures in the region.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron responded that the demand environment has seen no material changes recently, though visibility is limited to the next two to three months. He noted that overall industry capacity in Copa's network is projected to grow around 6% in Q2 and nearly 10% in Q3, with significant variation among competitors.

Savanthi Syth inquired about the 737 MAX delivery schedule for 2025 and 2026, noting it seemed slower than previous expectations, and asked for clarification on the associated capital expenditure outlook.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron stated the company is "perfectly fine" with the revised Boeing delivery schedule of 13 aircraft in 2025 (mostly in H2) and 8 in 2026, as it aligns with growth opportunities. Executive Daniel Tapia provided updated CapEx figures, projecting approximately $850 million for 2025 (with $200 million in cash CapEx) and a lower $450 million for 2026 due to fewer deliveries.

Savanthi Syth inquired about the drivers behind the 2024 unit revenue guidance revision, the preliminary 2025 capacity outlook, the impressive 2025 unit cost guidance, and the ongoing CFO search.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron and CFO Jose Montero confirmed the 2024 revenue revision was due to delays in redeploying capacity from suspended Venezuela flights and weaker currencies, particularly in Brazil. Heilbron stated the 2025 capacity growth of 7-9% is dictated by Boeing delivery delays. Montero explained that 2025 unit cost discipline is supported by aircraft densification, sales channel efficiencies, and maintenance initiatives. Heilbron also addressed the CFO transition, acknowledging Montero's retirement and detailing the active search for a successor and the strengthening of the management team.

Savanthi Syth asked about the extent of TIA testing that could be conducted during a government shutdown, particularly concerning FAA involvement, and followed up on the typical timeline for TIA flight testing and the division of flight hours between Joby and FAA pilots.

Answer

Paul Sciarra (Executive Chairman) acknowledged the FAA's continued 'lean-in' even during the shutdown, including airworthiness checks for the hybrid aircraft, and stated that delays to FAA flight test pilot portions are not currently anticipated, though uncertainty remains if the shutdown persists. He explained that the TIA flight test timeline is variable, with plans to use five aircraft in parallel, and that Joby pilots will conduct internal testing before FAA pilots fly for credit.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James sought clarification on the TIA aircraft, asking if it was being built 'at risk' or if all policy matters were settled. She also asked about the specific testing purpose of the first TIA aircraft and whether Joby had identified specific DoD programs of record for its defense business.

Answer

Founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt stated they are 'substantially out of policy' and the focus is now on finalizing test plans with the FAA, with parts for all five TIA aircraft already in production. Executive Chairman Paul Sciarra added that on the defense front, the strategy involves both pursuing existing programs and shaping new ones, leveraging their dual-use approach for rapid deployment from demonstration.

Savanthi Syth asked for details on the number of aircraft builds planned in the 2025 budget, their conformity status, and whether the aircraft for Dubai would be conforming. She also sought clarification on the timing and conditions of the two Toyota investment tranches.

Answer

President of Aircraft OEM Didier Papadopoulos explained that the 2025 manufacturing plan is a mix of building complete conforming aircraft and numerous conforming test articles. He clarified the aircraft sent to Dubai will be one from the existing prototype fleet. Executive Chairman Paul Sciarra addressed the financing question, stating that while there are regulatory and business items to complete, there is an 'extremely high probability' that both tranches of the Toyota investment will be received in 2025.

Savanthi Syth inquired if the current preproduction prototypes match the planned certified aircraft's takeoff weight and if they could be used for initial UAE operations. She also asked for key milestones regarding the Dubai launch.

Answer

Didier Papadopoulos, President of Aircraft OEM, confirmed the prototypes are very representative of the intended takeoff weight and could potentially be used for initial Dubai operations, though no decision has been made. Chief Product Officer Eric Allison and CFO Matt Field highlighted key milestones, including the recent acceptance of all qualification plans, the upcoming groundbreaking for the first vertiport, and plans to bring an aircraft to Dubai for testing next year.

Savanthi Syth from Raymond James inquired about an update on United's fleet plan, noting more deliveries than initially planned for the current year, and asked about the performance of Airbus and Boeing in getting their act together, as well as the progression for 2026.

Answer

EVP and CFO Mike Leskinen confirmed that Boeing is improving on narrow-body deliveries, leading to more than expected, a trend anticipated to continue into 2026 and 2027. He noted some wide-body delays but expressed optimism. He stated that faster deliveries, particularly of narrow-bodies, are margin and return on capital accretive due to upgauging and favorable financing terms, and he remains confident in expanding free cash conversion despite rising CapEx.

Savanthi Syth asked for insights into Delta's Latin America performance, broken out by near national and long haul segments. She also inquired about the maintenance side, specifically whether 2026 is expected to have more or less heavy maintenance events, and if inflation on maintenance and parts is improving.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein reported that long-haul Latin America has been very solid, with a strong winter season outlook, while short-haul has been a mixed bag, with the Caribbean doing well and Mexican beach under some pressure, but all remaining profitable. CFO Dan Janki stated that 2026 maintenance planning is in early stages, and inflation on maintenance and parts remains above normal, with supply chain issues and turn times still not at 2017-2019 levels, indicating a multi-year recovery.

Savanthi Syth asked for an update on Delta's Latin America performance, broken out by near national and long haul segments. She also inquired about the outlook for heavy maintenance events in 2026 and the current inflation trends for maintenance and parts.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein reported that long-haul Latin America has been very solid and is looking strong for the winter season. Short-haul Latin America is a mixed bag, with the Caribbean performing well but Mexican beach destinations under some pressure, though still profitable. CFO Dan Janki stated that 2026 maintenance planning is in early stages. He noted that inflation on maintenance and parts is still above normal, with material availability, repair, and components facing multi-year challenges, and turn times not yet at 2017-2019 levels.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James Financial asked how Delta's post-summer capacity plans have evolved since the previous quarter. She also sought clarification on whether the strategy of replicating shoulder season demand patterns applies to international regions beyond the Transatlantic.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein noted that Delta has proactively reduced its own capacity by several points, in line with responsible actions seen across the industry, particularly in domestic off-peak markets. He clarified that the commentary on shifting demand to shoulder seasons is primarily a Transatlantic phenomenon, as Latin America is contra-seasonal and the Pacific is less seasonal.

Savanthi Syth asked how Delta's post-summer capacity plans have evolved since the last quarter's uncertainty. She also sought clarification on whether the strategy of replicating shoulder season patterns applies beyond the Transatlantic to other international regions.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein explained that Delta has responded to the environment by taking down several points of capacity, particularly in Europe for the shoulder season, where growth is now relatively flat. He clarified that the commentary on shifting seasonal patterns is primarily related to Europe, as Latin America is contra-seasonal and the Pacific is less seasonal.

Savanthi Syth asked for a breakdown of the Q2 revenue guidance across Delta's geographic entities (Domestic, Atlantic, Pacific, Latin). She also questioned if the plan to cut "more expensive capacity" implies a focus on reducing regional flying.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein explained that the primary weakness is in domestic Main Cabin, while the Atlantic and Pacific regions look strong and Latin America is stable. He clarified that the company will eliminate unprofitable flying wherever it exists, with a disproportionate impact on off-peak times rather than a specific focus on regional versus mainline.

Savanthi Syth sought confirmation on the ~$5 billion CapEx outlook and the number of aircraft deliveries for 2025, and also asked for guidance on non-operating expenses for the year.

Answer

CFO Dan Janki confirmed the capital expenditure forecast of approximately $5 billion and around 40 aircraft deliveries for 2025. For non-operating expenses, he guided to a flattish year-over-year result near $800 million, as benefits from deleveraging would be offset by the absence of one-time gains from 2024.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James Financial, Inc. requested more color on the fourth-quarter unit revenue projections by geographic region and asked if the financial impact of Hurricane Milton was included in the guidance.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein noted that domestic and transatlantic routes are leading the unit revenue trends, with particular optimism for the transatlantic winter season. He added that the Pacific and Latin American regions are also showing improvement. CEO Ed Bastian stated it was too early to quantify the impact of Hurricane Milton in the current guidance.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James asked what certification progress can be made while not fully 'in policy' with the FAA, and questioned if the switch to a four-blade propeller is a major design change impacting flight.

Answer

Founder, CEO & Chairman Adam Goldstein clarified that no eVTOL OEM is fully 'out of policy' yet, as industry-wide FAA policy is still being finalized. This is why Archer introduced the 'Launch Edition' program for early revenue. Chief Technology Officer Tom Muniz added that the new four-blade propeller will be on all new aircraft, which will initially focus on conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) tests, a necessary step for certification.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James questioned the status of outstanding FAA issue papers and whether their resolution impacts the production schedule for certification aircraft.

Answer

CEO Adam Goldstein confirmed that a key FAA issue paper regarding total loss of propulsion has been resolved favorably, requiring no design changes to the Midnight aircraft. He stated this 'unlocks the vast majority' of remaining compliance items and provides the company with greater confidence to accelerate its manufacturing and certification testing plans.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James inquired about Archer's ability to scale production beyond the initial 10 aircraft planned for the year to meet early demand, and asked for more details on the development and strategy for its software business.

Answer

CEO Adam Goldstein stated that the production plan involves building 'tens of aircraft' in 2025 and 2026 before a larger-scale ramp in 2027. He explained that the software business is a growing focus, viewing it as a new potential revenue line that spans the entire value chain from customer booking and operational control to eventual autonomy. He believes this software will be key to scaling the industry safely.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James sought clarification on the 2025 spending framework, specifically how manufacturing and commercial operations costs would be financed, and asked about the progress and learnings from building the certification aircraft.

Answer

Interim CFO Priya Gupta explained that material costs are expected to be financed through traditional mechanisms like working capital and inventory financing, while the Stellantis agreement is intended to cover most manufacturing labor and CapEx. Chief Operating Officer Thomas Muniz reported the first type design aircraft is 'almost complete' and in system integration testing, with learnings informing the Georgia factory layout. CEO Adam Goldstein emphasized these are production aircraft built to the highest safety standards for carrying passengers.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James Financial inquired about the full-year 2025 cash consumption guidance, asking if it would track below the guided range, and questioned the timeline for engineering prototype flight testing relative to building the certification-conforming aircraft.

Answer

CFO Eduardo Couto confirmed that cash consumption is tracking towards the low end of the $200-$250 million range, potentially slightly below, due to optimized spending and leveraging Embraer's resources. VP of Engineering & Technology, Luiz Valentini, clarified that the engineering prototype's testing is parallel to the development of conforming prototypes, which are still planned for flight tests towards the end of 2026, keeping the 2027 certification on track.

Savanthi Syth from Raymond James inquired about the future pace of R&D spending, the timeline and potential bottlenecks for the certification aircraft build, and the specific battery technology being used in the prototypes versus the final certification aircraft.

Answer

CFO Eduardo Couto stated that R&D spending should remain at current levels of approximately $44 million per quarter and not accelerate further. CEO Johann Christian Jean Bordais confirmed that the certification aircraft build is on schedule. CTO Luiz Valentini clarified that the prototype battery uses similar technology and the same supplier as the commercial version but is a different design to accelerate learning.

Savanthi Syth inquired about the expected progression of cash burn throughout 2025 and sought early insights into 2026, given Eve's liquidity position. She also asked for details on the production facility's role, specifically if it would be used to build the third aircraft.

Answer

CFO Eduardo Couto clarified that the 2025 cash burn is projected to be between $200 million and $250 million, heavily weighted towards eVTOL development as the company increases its engineering staff. He noted this burn rate is likely to continue into 2026, and the current liquidity of nearly $450 million is sufficient for at least two years. Couto added that the production facility investment is for tooling and machines at an existing Embraer site, not for constructing a new building.

Savanthi Syth asked about the reasons for the updated type certification timeline to 2027, its impact on pre-delivery payments, and the timing of production facility CapEx.

Answer

CEO Johann Bordais explained the 2027 certification timeline is a normal update for an innovative program, reflecting a more realistic path to deliver a mature product. CFO Eduardo Couto added that pre-delivery payment schedules remain on track as they firm up LOIs. Regarding CapEx, Johann Bordais stated the peak facility investment will occur in 2026, with cash burn expected to rise only slightly in 2025.

Savanthi Syth asked about the cost implications of recent capacity adjustments, specifically regarding aircraft utilization, and questioned the airline's flexibility to flex capacity up or down.

Answer

President James Dempsey explained that utilization has been meaningfully reduced on off-peak days. CFO Mark Mitchell added that these adjustments create some near-term transition costs. CEO Barry Biffle and Dempsey noted that while they have surplus pilots to flex up, a significant capacity increase would require a 6-8 month lead time due to the pilot training and upgrade cycle.

Savanthi Syth from Raymond James asked about the drivers for the expected return to profitability in the second half and questioned the traction gained from product changes and promotions aimed at competitors' customers.

Answer

CEO Barry Biffle attributed the second-half profitability target to stabilizing demand, significant off-peak capacity reductions, and growing traction from 'New Frontier' initiatives like the economy bundle. President James Dempsey added that the company is learning to use the bundle more effectively. CCO Robert Schroeter highlighted that the enhanced loyalty program offers superior value with benefits like a flexible companion pass, driving positive growth.

Savanthi Syth asked for the key drivers behind the expected margin improvement from Q1 to the summer's double-digit target and sought to quantify the progression of market maturity as a percentage of the network.

Answer

CEO Barry Biffle explained that after accounting for the Easter impact, the margin bridge to summer is supported by normal seasonality, ongoing network maturity, and other revenue initiatives. He noted the company has flexibility on capacity and will adjust it based on RASM performance to meet earnings targets. President James Dempsey quantified the maturity improvement, stating that immature markets, which were well over 20% of the network last year, will be less than half that level in certain periods this year.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James requested clarification on the outlook for unit cost pressure in 2025 and asked for more detail on the maturation of new markets, specifically the proportion of ASMs in immature routes this year versus next.

Answer

CFO Mark Mitchell deferred providing specific 2025 cost guidance, stating the focus is on hitting the $150 million cost savings run-rate target. CEO Barry Biffle elaborated on network maturation, explaining that a significant redeployment, affecting 20% of capacity, will see a 20-30% maturity bump in 2025. He expects the mix of new versus mature markets to normalize by mid-2025, aligning new market flying more closely with the overall growth rate.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James sought clarification on the build plan for the next aircraft, asking if it would be a preproduction or certification-conforming model. She also asked about the extent of secured long-lead parts and the nature of non-recurring engineering costs.

Answer

CEO Stuart Simpson clarified that Aircraft 3 is a prototype copy, while the subsequent aircraft, due in December of the next year, will be the first certification-compliant model. He stated that major components like the flight controls (Honeywell) and airframe (Acitory) are secured. Simpson also noted that non-recurring engineering expenditures will increase over the next 12-18 months as the supply chain is finalized and tooling is ordered.

Savanthi Syth from Raymond James Financial sought clarification on the production timeline, asking if the next aircraft built will be a preproduction or certification-conforming model. She also asked about the extent of the bill of materials secured and details on non-recurring engineering costs.

Answer

CEO Stuart Simpson clarified that Aircraft 3 will be a prototype copy for hybrid testing, while the first certification-compliant aircraft is scheduled for build in December of the following year. He noted that major components like the flight controls (Honeywell) and airframe (Assatore) are secured, and confirmed that non-recurring engineering expenses paid by Vertical will increase over the next 12-18 months.

Savanthi Syth from Raymond James Financial sought clarification on the aircraft production timeline, asking about the distinction between the third prototype and the first certification-conforming aircraft. She also asked what portion of the bill of materials has been secured and about the nature of non-recurring engineering costs with partners.

Answer

CEO Stuart Simpson clarified that Aircraft 3 is a prototype copy for hybrid testing, while the next aircraft, due by the end of 2026, will be the first certification-ready model. He noted that major deals with Honeywell and Acitory have secured the flight controls and airframe, respectively, with more supply chain news to come. Simpson added that non-recurring engineering expenditures will increase over the next 12-18 months as the company moves toward production tooling.

Savanthi Syth asked about the non-fuel cost outlook for 2026, considering the planned flat capacity and the pending pilot deal. She also questioned if the significant cost savings achieved in 2025 were sustainable or if some might reverse next year.

Answer

SVP & CFO Robert Neal stated that while it's too early for a formal 2026 guide, factors like reduced off-peak flying and a potential pilot deal are key variables. He noted that a headwind from aircraft rent in 2025 is expected to reverse in 2026. President and CEO Gregory Anderson added that strong operational performance and structural cost reductions in corporate overhead, marketing, and IT spend are creating a culture of cost discipline.

Savanthi Syth asked for a breakdown of the 2025 capacity growth by quarter and inquired about the expected progression of unit cost improvements throughout the year.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Drew Wells outlined that capacity growth would be approximately 14% in Q1, rise to the low 20s in Q2 and Q3, and be lowest in Q4. President and CEO Gregory Anderson characterized 2025 as a "onetime catch-up year." Chief Financial Officer Robert Neal added that unit cost improvements would be most significant in Q1 and moderate through the year as new aircraft enter the fleet.

Savanthi Syth inquired about Allegiant's capacity plans amid Boeing delivery uncertainty, focusing on how aircraft utilization will ramp up in peak versus off-peak periods for Q4 and into 2025. She also asked for an update on the Allegiant Extra premium seating rollout.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Drew Wells detailed that utilization will be at 'full throttle' over the holidays and remain focused on peak days in early Q1 2025. President and CEO Gregory Anderson added that this growth uses existing infrastructure, making it accretive. Wells also confirmed that 39-40 aircraft currently have Allegiant Extra, with all eligible Airbus planes to be retrofitted in H1 2025 and all new MAX aircraft arriving with the feature.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James Financial followed up on the 2026 capacity growth, asking how much is driven by AOG reversals and how this impacts cost efficiency. She also inquired about the current competitive landscape and any notable changes in competitor behavior.

Answer

CFO Ursula Hurley confirmed that the majority of the projected growth comes from improvements in the AOG situation, which will provide efficiency on the unit cost trajectory after two years of no growth. President Marty St. George described the competitive landscape as not 'unusual,' but noted they are closely watching capacity pull-downs in the ULCC sector and that there is uncertainty around the industry's overall capacity growth for the rest of the year.

Savanthi Syth asked for a potential range of capacity outcomes for the second half of the year and requested details on the upcoming domestic partnership, including its benefits and timeline.

Answer

President Martin St. George declined to provide a specific capacity guide for the second half, stating the company will remain opportunistic and react to demand, but noted it would be measurably down from original expectations. Regarding the partnership, he expects an announcement in Q2 with a domestic airline, which will significantly expand the network for earning and redeeming TrueBlue points, improving the loyalty program's utility. Financial benefits will be updated in the next quarterly call if a deal is finalized.

Savanthi Syth requested more color on which specific markets in the Northeast and Florida are facing competitive pressure. She also asked about shifts in the A220 delivery schedule and the significance of CapEx for premium products.

Answer

President Marty St. George identified Boston as the market with the most significant competitive capacity pressure but declined to provide further route-level detail. CFO Ursula Hurley explained that A220 delivery timings were adjusted to reflect the latest information from Airbus and stated that the domestic first-class investment will be approximately $400 million over several years, deeming it a positive ROI project.

Savanthi Syth inquired about the timeline for JetForward initiatives to drive revenue per available seat mile (RASM) growth beyond normal seasonality, and also asked for an update on the competitive capacity environment, particularly from ultra-low-cost carriers.

Answer

President Marty St. George explained that while network changes will mature over time, more immediate revenue drivers like preferred seating fees are already performing well. He noted that redeployed aircraft, such as moving from Minneapolis to Islip, are showing strong early results with high frequent flyer engagement. Regarding competitive capacity, he stated it is up in Q4 versus Q3, driven by carriers other than ULCCs, but JetBlue is maintaining its unit revenue strength despite the increase.

Savanthi Syth from Raymond James Financial asked for clarification on the recently paid 10% tariff on E175s, questioning if it applied to the full aircraft cost. She also requested an update on the SkyWest Charter application and the potential influence of the new FAA administrator.

Answer

President & CEO Chip Childs clarified that the 10% tariff was not on the full aircraft value but on a fraction (one-third to one-half) due to US-made components. Regarding the charter, he expressed optimism but noted the delay is with the Department of Transportation, not the FAA, and that the new FAA administrator, while a positive, may not directly accelerate the DOT's process.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James asked about partner demand plans for the post-summer period, the reason for the reduction in aircraft assigned to SkyWest Charter, and the drivers behind the sequential increase in prorate revenue.

Answer

President and CEO Russell A. Childs stated that despite broader industry softening, demand for SkyWest's model remains strong as they are still in a 'catch-up mode' to restore service to small communities. Chief Commercial Officer Wade Steel explained that aircraft were temporarily moved from SkyWest Charter to SkyWest Airlines to meet strong summer demand at the mainline entity, with plans to move them back later. He attributed the prorate revenue increase to adding new markets and increasing capacity to meet strong demand for small community air service.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James inquired about the timeline for restoring pro rate service to smaller communities, the status of re-engagement with the FAA for SkyWest Charter's commuter authority, and the potential competitive impact from Air Wisconsin's strategic shift towards pro rate and EAS flying.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Wade Steel clarified that while some pro rate markets were added, significant expansion is expected in late Q3 and Q4 2025. President and CEO Chip Childs confirmed optimistic re-engagement with regulators regarding the charter authority and expressed confidence that SkyWest's established, integrated model would not be significantly impacted by competitors.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James asked whether the restoration of city services was primarily for prorate or capacity purchase agreements, if CRJ550 conversion costs were included in the updated 2025 CapEx forecast, and for an update on captain staffing levels relative to operational needs.

Answer

CEO Chip Childs responded that the service restoration is heavily weighted toward prorate flying. Chief Commercial Officer Wade Steel confirmed that the increased 2025 CapEx forecast of approximately $500 million includes costs for CRJ550 conversions and purchases. Mr. Childs also detailed that pilot counts are approaching 5,000, with expectations to reach pre-pandemic complement levels by early 2025 and meet full partner utilization demand by mid-to-late 2025.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James inquired about the cash flow and P&L treatment of recent aircraft sales and asked for more color on the nature of the demand recovery, specifically regarding leisure versus corporate travel.

Answer

CFO Tom Doxey explained that aircraft sales are cash-accretive as the planes are largely paid for, and any book gains are excluded from guidance. COO Andrew Watterson detailed the demand recovery, noting corporate travel inflected positively in June after a weak May, with the trend continuing. President & CEO Bob Jordan added that the recovery feels broad-based, with a notable return in booking volume that was previously difficult to stimulate.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James asked about the impact of aircraft gauge on load factor, given the mix of MAX 8 deliveries and 737-700 retirements. She also inquired about the size of the airline's government travel exposure.

Answer

CEO Bob Jordan and COO Andrew Watterson explained that aircraft gauge is not currently a major factor in load factor, as both large and small planes have similar load factors. The larger MAX 8s are beneficial in peak periods. Regarding government travel, Jordan estimated the exposure is small, around 2% or less of the business, so while the slowdown is notable, its overall impact is limited.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James inquired about the cadence of unit cost (CASM-X) growth for 2025, the drivers for the moderation from Q1 to Q4, and the capacity growth assumption behind the low single-digit Q4 exit rate.

Answer

CFO Tammy Romo detailed the bridge from Q1's cost growth to the low single-digit exit rate in Q4, attributing the improvement to several factors. She cited 3-4 points from turn and redeye initiatives, about 1 point from absorbing overstaffing, and another 2-3 points split between lapping prior-year labor contracts and benefits from the new cost plan. Romo confirmed the benefits will ramp up throughout the year, with the largest impact hitting in the fourth quarter.

Savanthi Syth inquired about revenue trends in managed corporate travel, the progression of the quarter considering hurricane impacts, and flexibility in the sale-leaseback strategy.

Answer

COO Andrew Watterson confirmed that managed business travel saw a temporary dip from hurricanes but has since recovered. CEO Bob Jordan highlighted that overall Q4 demand is strong, with unit revenue trends accelerating. CFO Tammy Romo affirmed that the sale-leaseback strategy can include existing aircraft, providing flexibility amid Boeing delivery uncertainty.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James Financial, Inc. sought clarification on whether Q3 domestic capacity reductions were solely off-peak adjustments and asked about the drivers behind worsening operational metrics.

Answer

CFO Devon May confirmed the Q3 domestic capacity pullback was a larger-than-usual reduction for the off-peak August-September period, with some capacity naturally returning in Q4. CEO Robert Isom attributed recent operational challenges to an anomalous level of weather disruptions, expressing confidence that performance will improve as conditions normalize and technology investments pay off. He also noted a unique slowdown at DCA that they expect to recover from.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James asked for more detail on performance expectations across international entities in the Q2 guidance and the corresponding trend for domestic demand.

Answer

Vice Chair Steve Johnson highlighted expected summer strength across all international regions, including Europe, the Pacific, and Latin America. Conversely, he pointed to "significant weakness" in domestic demand, particularly from price-sensitive, discretionary travelers.

Savanthi Syth requested more color on the Q4 unit revenue trend, asking about the core performance excluding 'noise' from the election and potential hurricane impacts. She also asked for a high-level breakdown of the planned low single-digit capacity growth in 2025 between domestic, near-international, and long-haul international markets.

Answer

CEO Robert Isom reiterated that Q4 demand is strong overall, with a solid October and December offsetting expected softness in early November due to the election and Halloween. For 2025 capacity, CFO Devon May stated that regional growth will be domestic-focused, while the remaining growth will be split relatively evenly between domestic and international, with a potential slight lean towards international. Robert Isom added that capacity will be shifted more towards northern tier hubs.

Asked for an update on cash flow components for 2025-2026 following the restructuring, details on fleet deliveries and retirements, the domestic vs. international growth outlook, and color on the current demand environment.

Answer

The company reaffirmed its BRL 7.4 billion EBITDA guidance for 2025, stating cash flow targets are achievable despite currency headwinds. Fleet growth will be driven by E2 deliveries, with international capacity growing faster than domestic (high single digits). The demand environment is surprisingly strong, especially in corporate travel, with disciplined discounting. International demand also remains robust despite currency fluctuations.

Asked if the 2025 guidance fully incorporates the completion of the restructuring and the current FX environment, inquired about the demand and pricing trends, and sought to clarify if the $100 million in partner contributions would impact EBITDA.

Answer

The 2025 EBITDA guidance is firm and based on current assumptions for oil and FX, but the cash flow and leverage projections assume the transaction's completion. The $100 million partner contribution target includes both P&L benefits and cash flow timing improvements. The demand environment is strong and recovering, supported by disciplined industry pricing and growth in non-passenger business units.

Asked for clarification on the net financial impact of the Porto Alegre floods and the expected drag going forward, and also inquired about A320 deliveries for next year and details of the BNDS financing for E2 aircraft.

Answer

The BRL 200 million flood impact was a net figure, and RASK is already recovering strongly. No A320 deliveries are planned for next year, with the focus shifting to E2s and A321s from 2026. The BNDS financing is standard ECA financing for Embraer jets, and most upcoming E2 deliveries will be operating leases with no cash outflow.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James asked if Ryanair was observing a longer booking season, as some competitors noted, and inquired about the significance of the recent legal victory against Booking.com.

Answer

CEO Michael O'Leary expressed skepticism about an extending booking season, highlighting the current weakness in close-in pricing. He described the court win against Booking.com as "seismic," stating the jury's finding of illegal screen scraping and fraud establishes a critical precedent that he believes will prevent OTAs from overcharging Ryanair customers in the future.

Requested an update on GDS/corporate travel relationships and asked if Boeing delivery delays are forcing changes to schedule planning and booking strategies.

Answer

Edward Wilson mentioned a new deal with Concur for corporate travel and that GDS is a growing but not spectacular channel. Michael O'Leary confirmed that delivery delays are very frustrating and have caused them to be slow in launching the summer '24 schedule, holding back capacity and constraining growth. The full year traffic forecast for FY'25 is being revised down from 205M to 200M passengers as a result.

Savanthi Syth asked what elements of the Q3 cost bridge were incremental versus prior expectations and if the historical relationship of ~5% growth for flat unit costs still holds. She also inquired about the unit cost and revenue impact of adding premium seats without reducing total seat count.

Answer

CFO Shane Tackett identified the lower growth rate and a higher-than-planned labor deal as the main incremental changes to the cost forecast. He affirmed the philosophy that 4-5% growth should yield flattish unit costs remains intact. Tackett also confirmed the fleet modification is a positive for both unit revenue (from premium fares) and unit cost, as costs will be spread over slightly more seats.

Asked if the $100 million cost reduction goal is sized for 2024 capacity or if it also contemplates 2025's planned reductions. Also inquired about the source of RASM pressure (international vs. domestic) and for details on patterns in their network schedule changes.

Answer

Executives clarified the $100 million is a run-rate goal to rightsize for the end of 2024, with 2025 to be reevaluated based on AOG aircraft numbers. They confirmed domestic revenue is also weak, with Latin American/Caribbean weakness compounding the issue. Network changes involve suspending some international service and adding routes in underserved markets, but the primary focus is on improving the product offering to be more attractive to customers.

Asked about the configuration of the test aircraft (fully compliant or specialized), the expected timing and volume of flight hours for 2024, and the role of Tier 1 suppliers and their components in the certification process.

Answer

Lilium will use a fleet of six test aircraft, which will not be identical but rather instrumented for specific tests. The first flight is planned for late 2024, so few flight hours are expected this year, with the total program aiming for 800-1,000 hours. Tier 1 suppliers play a crucial role by performing a large part of the component testing and certification work, which significantly offloads work from Lilium and accelerates the process.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James inquired about the lighter-than-expected Q4 block hour forecast, the pilot trends supporting fiscal 2024 growth, target cash levels post-asset sales, and the current revenue mix.

Answer

Executive Jonathan Ornstein and Executive Michael Lotz attributed lighter block hours to operational issues, higher Aviate attrition, and conservative scheduling by United, but expressed confidence in future growth driven by first officer upgrades and direct-entry captains. Regarding financials, Lotz stated the revenue mix is approximately 97% from the United CPA and 2-3% from cargo, but declined to provide a specific cash target due to the variable timing of asset sales. Ornstein added that United is committed to ensuring Mesa maintains adequate cash levels for operations.

In a follow-up, Savanthi Syth asked for a target cash or debt level after the completion of asset sales and for the quarter's revenue mix between cargo and other operations.

Answer

President Michael Lotz stated the revenue mix was approximately 97% from the United CPA and 2-3% from cargo. He explained that the company is not providing long-term cash projections due to the variable timing of asset sales. Chairman and CEO Jonathan Ornstein added that United is committed to ensuring Mesa maintains adequate cash levels for operations and that discussions on this topic have been productive.

Savanthi Syth of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. asked about the future trajectory of deferred revenue, the expected block hour progression into the fourth quarter, and the potential for improved fleet utilization. She also sought clarification on projected pre-tax margins, the number of CRJ-900 aircraft available for monetization, the difficulty in forecasting revenue per block hour, and the long-term outlook for the regional airline market over the next three years.

Answer

CFO Torque Zubeck stated that deferred revenue recognition will increase as flying increases but did not provide specific guidance. President Michael Lotz projected September quarter block hours at 55,000, with a target of 65,000-66,000 in subsequent quarters. CEO Jonathan Ornstein confirmed the 5-8% margin target is pre-tax and explained the strategy is to sell as many CRJ-900s as possible while prioritizing the more profitable E-Jets. Both Ornstein and Lotz noted that forecasting revenue per block hour is complex due to the mixed ownership of the fleet. Ornstein concluded that the regional business model remains strong due to cost advantages over major airlines and the essential nature of network feed traffic.