Scot Ciccarelli

Scot Ciccarelli asked about the margin pressures impacting the North American automotive business, specifically noting a 14% EBITDA decline and a 5%-5.5% margin, which was lower than anticipated. He also inquired about the earnings contribution split between company-owned stores and independent owners within North America.

Answer

Bert Nappier, EVP and CFO, explained that Q4 consolidated EBITDA was affected by weaker sales in Europe and to independent owners, along with minimal profit benefit from FX. He cited wage pressure, a significant increase in U.S. healthcare costs (up $32 million for the full year, growing at high single digits), rent, freight, and IT investments (moving to SG&A) as key drivers of margin pressure in North America Auto. Nappier stated that specific earnings contribution details for company-owned versus independent stores would be provided at a future investor day. Will Stengel, President and CEO, added that operational improvements in company-owned stores, including organizational structure changes, discipline, and standardized processes, were progressing well, leading to improved payroll percentages in Q4.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about the margin pressures on the North American auto business, specifically the 14% EBITDA decline and 5%-5.5% margin, which seemed lower than anticipated. He also inquired about the earnings contribution split between company-owned stores and independent owners.

Answer

Bert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, explained that consolidated EBITDA was impacted by weaker sales in Europe and with independent owners, and FX with minimal profit benefit. For North America Auto, he cited wage pressure, high single-digit US healthcare cost inflation, rent, freight, and disproportionate IT investments. He stated that the earnings contribution split between company-owned and independent stores would be detailed at a future investor day, noting stores are split 65-35 and sales 50/50. Will Stengel, President and CEO, highlighted operational improvements and discipline in company-owned stores.

Scot Ciccarelli asked if independent owners were actively reducing their inventory levels and if this indicated a loss of market share, seeking potential quantification. He followed up by asking if there was a point at which independents would need to start rebuilding their inventory levels from current positions.

Answer

Bert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, clarified that independent owners are mindful of inventory management but are not necessarily working down levels or losing market share. He affirmed that GPC's initiatives across both company-owned and independent stores are effective. Bert Nappier and Will Stengel, President and Chief Executive Officer, acknowledged that on the margin, independents could buy more inventory, but emphasized that current inventory levels are healthy and not a reason for underperformance. They noted that elevated interest rates are a key factor influencing cautious replenishment decisions by independent owners.

Scot Ciccarelli asked if independent owners are losing market share due to managing down inventory levels and if this could be quantified. He also questioned whether there's a point where independents will need to rebuild their inventory levels.

Answer

Executive Vice President and CFO Bert Nappier stated that independents are mindful of inventory but not necessarily losing share, and GPC's initiatives are effective. He affirmed that, on the margin, independents could buy more inventory, but current inventory levels are healthy and not a reason for underperformance, with elevated interest rates influencing cautious replenishment.

Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities asked for more detail on same-SKU inflation expectations in the U.S. and any assumed unit elasticity. He also questioned whether the current, lower global automotive margins should be considered a new baseline for the business.

Answer

EVP and CFO Bert Nappier explained that second-half inflation assumptions are slightly higher for the NAPA business in the U.S. due to tariffs. He noted the primary headwind for auto profitability is SG&A inflation outpacing sales inflation by about 100 basis points. Nappier asserted that the current margin level is not the new baseline, as ongoing cost actions are designed to improve profitability long-term, with improvement expected in the second half.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked for more detail on the expectations for same-SKU inflation in the U.S. business and any assumed negative unit elasticity. He also questioned if the recent decline in Global Automotive segment margins represents a new baseline for profitability.

Answer

EVP and CFO Bert Napier explained that inflation assumptions for the second half are slightly higher for the NAPA business and in the U.S. due to tariffs. He stated the primary headwind for Global Automotive profitability is the approximate 100 basis point gap between SG&A cost inflation and top-line inflation benefits across all geographies. Napier emphasized that the current margin level is not the target baseline, and cost actions are underway to improve profitability, with an improvement expected in the second half.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for more detail on same-SKU inflation expectations for the U.S. business and any assumptions about negative unit elasticity. He also questioned whether the current, lower Global Automotive margins should be considered the new baseline going forward.

Answer

EVP and CFO Bert Napier stated that second-half inflation assumptions are slightly higher for the NAPA business in the U.S. due to tariffs. He identified the primary headwind for Global Automotive profitability as SG&A inflation outpacing sales inflation by approximately 100 basis points across geographies. Napier asserted that the current margin level is not the target baseline, as ongoing cost restructuring actions are designed to drive long-term profitability improvement, with better results expected in the second half of the year.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for more detail on same-SKU inflation expectations for the U.S. business and whether the company was assuming any negative unit elasticity. He also questioned if the recent decline in Global Automotive margins represented a new baseline for the segment.

Answer

EVP and CFO Bert Napier explained that inflation assumptions are slightly higher for the NAPA business versus Industrial, and more weighted to the U.S. He attributed the auto margin pressure to SG&A inflation outpacing top-line benefits by about 100 basis points, but clarified, "that's not our objective is to keep it with declining profitability," stating that current actions are aimed at long-term improvement.

Scot Ciccarelli questioned the disconnect between significant investments in the North American Automotive business and its lagging comparable sales growth relative to peers, asking when these operational improvements might translate into better market share.

Answer

President and CEO William Stengel responded that while the company is proud of its progress, particularly in the non-discretionary commercial business, it is not yet satisfied. He noted that some initiatives are quick wins while others are longer-term efforts, and the company is working actively with independent owners and improving company-owned stores, with performance getting better each month.

Scot Ciccarelli asked whether the profit disappointment was concentrated in the international business or if U.S. auto margins also declined. He also requested a general outlook for 2025.

Answer

EVP and CFO Herbert Nappier clarified that margin pressure was consistent across all global markets, not isolated to one region, driven by broad-based interest rate and cost inflation pressures. Regarding 2025, Nappier stated that while long-term fundamentals are strong, the biggest variable is the timing of market recovery, as conditions remain stagnant. President and CEO William Stengel added that recent global interest rate cuts should eventually provide a tailwind for the business.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for quantification of the sales headwind from DIY due to external macro factors and details on initiatives to address pent-up demand. He also inquired about the comparable sales assumption underpinning the projected 100 basis points of operating income expansion in 2027.

Answer

Shane O'Kelly, President and CEO, discussed the negative consumer sentiment among low- and mid-income groups impacting general merchandise, but noted the auto parts industry's resilience (90% break/fix). He highlighted DIY initiatives including the improved Advance Rewards loyalty program, the launch of the new ARGOS owned oil and fluids brand, and ongoing efforts in marketing, e-commerce, assortment, and store experience. Ryan Grimsland, EVP and CFO, stated that both pro and DIY are expected to contribute positively to comp growth in 2026, with pro outpacing DIY, and DIY trends remaining stable from Q4 to Q1. For 2027, Mr. Grimsland did not provide specific comp guidance but indicated expectations for low-single digit growth.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for a quantification of the sales headwind from DIY due to external macro factors and inquired about initiatives to materialize pent-up demand from past maintenance deferrals. He also sought clarification on the comparable sales assumption for the projected 100 basis points of operating income expansion in 2027.

Answer

Shane O'Kelly (President and CEO) discussed the impact of low/mid-income consumer sentiment on general merchandise spending, but noted the resilience of the 'break, fix' industry. He detailed DIY initiatives including the improved Advance Rewards loyalty program and the new Argos owned oil/fluids brand. Ryan Grimsland (EVP and CFO) added that DIY trends remained stable to Q4 and Pro comps improved. For 2027, Ryan did not give specific comp guidance but expected 'low single digits' consistent with past statements.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked if the 2027 operating margin target is primarily dependent on gross margin expansion and requested a breakdown of the key drivers.

Answer

CFO Ryan Grimsland confirmed that a larger portion of the margin improvement will come from gross margin, identifying two key buckets: merchandising excellence (first cost, promotions) and supply chain productivity (DC consolidation, transportation). CEO Shane O'Kelly added that top-line growth, driven by improved parts availability and delivery speed, is also a critical component of the plan.

Scot Ciccarelli questioned the drivers of gross margin improvement for the year, noting that the benefit from procurement costs seemed modest at 50 basis points. He asked for more color on what other factors, such as supply chain savings, would contribute to the expected improvement and whether the procurement gains were sustainable.

Answer

EVP and CFO Ryan Grimsland clarified that the 50+ basis points from procurement is a significant driver, supplemented by SG&A leverage from higher volume and cost improvements from store closures. He emphasized that the bulk of gross margin improvement will come from COGS, which includes both first-cost work with vendors and leverage on supply chain operations. Grimsland confirmed the 50 bps from procurement is a sustainable, ongoing run rate from new vendor contracts that will grow over time.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked for a breakdown of the drivers for the significant COGS improvement plan, specifically the contribution from supply chain versus merchandising. He also questioned the management's confidence level in achieving the gross margin targets given recent performance.

Answer

An executive, likely CFO Ryan Grimsland, explained that while supply chain optimization is a key factor, the larger portion of near-term COGS improvement will come from merchandising excellence, including better first costs, promotional effectiveness, and pro pricing. CEO Shane O'Kelly expressed high confidence, attributing it to new leadership in merchandising implementing proven retail fundamentals and fostering more collaborative, growth-oriented vendor partnerships.

Scott Ciccarelli asked about the potential duration of elevated expenses, such as healthcare and self-insurance, running above historical levels, and whether the expected moderation in SG&A per store growth in the second half of 2026 implies a normalized growth rate for 2027. He also inquired about other significant line items for modeling purposes within SG&A.

Answer

Jeremy Fletcher, CFO, stated that predicting the exact exit rate for 2027 SG&A growth is challenging. He noted that self-insurance cost pressures have persisted longer and been more dramatic than expected, leading to a cautious posture for 2026, particularly in the first half due to tougher comparisons. Key SG&A components to consider include heightened depreciation run rate and continued strategic technology investments.

Scott Ciccarelli from Truist Securities inquired about the expected duration of elevated healthcare and self-insurance expenses, and whether the anticipated moderation in SG&A per store growth in the second half of 2026 suggests a normalized growth rate for 2027. He also asked about other key SG&A line items for modeling.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Fletcher explained that the persistence of elevated self-insurance costs is difficult to predict, noting they've exceeded expectations and a cautious outlook remains for 2026, particularly the first half. He anticipates eventual moderation. Fletcher declined to comment on 2027 SG&A exit rates but highlighted depreciation and technology investments as other significant SG&A components.

Scot Ciccarelli inquired about notable differences in geographic performance due to weather and O'Reilly's exposure to the First Brands situation.

Answer

Brad Beckham (CEO, O'Reilly Automotive) reported no material differences in regional performance in Q3. Brent Kirby (President, O'Reilly Automotive) stated First Brands represents slightly over 3% of COGs, O'Reilly is multi-sourced, and they are confident in managing any disruption. Brad Beckham (CEO, O'Reilly Automotive) added that O'Reilly has strong engagement with First Brands leadership and competitors, providing opportunities to backfill orders.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about any notable geographic performance differences due to weather patterns and the company's risk or exposure to the First Brands situation, given increased discussion on supplier health.

Answer

CEO Brad Beckham reported no material geographic performance differences in Q3. President Brent Kirby stated that First Brands represents slightly over 3% of COGs, and O'Reilly's multi-sourcing strategy and proprietary brands mitigate risk. Brad Beckham added that O'Reilly has strong engagement with First Brands' leadership and competitors, allowing for backfill orders and alternative suppliers.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities questioned if there are differences in the pricing strategy or timing related to tariffs between the DIY and professional business segments.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Fletcher clarified that while the process is complex and managed on a category-by-category basis, the overall approach and outcomes tend to be consistent across both DIY and professional channels. He noted that while short-term timing differences can occur, the market ultimately settles at a rational equilibrium in parity on both sides of the business.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked if O'Reilly's pricing strategy and timing for tariff-related cost increases differ between its DIY and professional customer segments.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jeremy Fletcher responded that while the pricing process is complex and managed on a category-by-category basis, the company's approach is ultimately consistent across both DIY and professional channels. He noted that while there can be short-term timing differences, the market tends to reach a rational equilibrium that applies similarly to both sides of the business.

Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities requested an update on new store economics, given that performance is exceeding expectations despite higher construction costs.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Fletcher noted that the cost for an owned store is now approaching $3 million, but the economic model and returns continue to improve, justifying a heavier mix of owned stores. CEO Brad Beckham added that even with inflated costs, the ROI remains excellent, which is why they are increasing their new store opening target to 200-210 for 2025.

Scot Ciccarelli inquired if the GPU reduction CarMax is contemplating is in the range of $500 per unit, which historically has been cited as a level needed for sales inflection. He also asked Tom Folliard and David McCreight about CarMax's current perception among consumers and their vision for the brand in two to three years.

Answer

Enrique Mayor-Mora (EVP and CFO) clarified that $500 is not a fixed number for sales movement, emphasizing dynamic price elasticity testing and the combination of pricing with marketing. David McCreight (Interim President and CEO) and Tom Folliard (Interim Executive Chair) affirmed CarMax's enduring strengths as a trusted brand, leading used car destination, and national physical footprint, which they believe will drive future growth.

Scot Ciccarelli asked if the anticipated GPU reduction aligns with the historical $500 per unit needed for sales inflection. He also asked Tom Folliard and David McCreight about CarMax's current consumer perception and their vision for the company in the next two to three years.

Answer

Enrique Mayor-Mora, EVP and CFO, clarified that $500 is not the specific amount needed to move sales, and current actions are sizable tests. David McCreight, Interim President and CEO, and Tom Folliard, Interim Executive Chair of the Board, affirmed CarMax's trusted brand and national scale, emphasizing the need to simplify the digital experience and activate existing capabilities for future growth.

Scot Ciccarelli (represented by Josh Young) asked whether CarMax's sales slowdown is primarily due to a lack of customers entering the top of the sales funnel or customers falling out further down the funnel.

Answer

Bill Nash, President and CEO, stated that web traffic is up year-over-year, and conversion rates further down the funnel are improving. He identified the biggest opportunity as converting web traffic into 'selling opportunities,' which is influenced by both macro factors (window shopping) and CarMax's ability to make its website stickier. Jon Daniels, EVP of CarMax Auto Finance, added that conversion rates vary significantly based on customer credit quality.

Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities inquired about how to model comparable sales growth for the remainder of the year and asked for more color on the accounting mechanics of moving non-prime loans to 'held for sale'.

Answer

President & CEO Bill Nash reiterated the outlook to grow sales and gain market share for the year. EVP of Auto Finance, Jon Daniels, and EVP & CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora explained that the 'held for sale' strategy removes the need to hold loss reserves for that specific loan pool, mitigates future risk, and allows for an upfront gain upon sale, enabling CAF income growth.

Scot Ciccarelli posed a two-part question on the drivers of the broader used car industry's improvement beyond price stabilization and for more details on CarMax's payment extension policy.

Answer

CEO William Nash suggested industry improvement is aided by moderating prices and a widening price gap between new and late-model used cars. SVP Jon Daniels explained the payment extension test allows certain delinquent customers to make one, instead of two, payments to qualify, with the potential impact already factored into the loan loss reserve.

Scot Ciccarelli asked if the increased loan loss provision was driven by a higher rate of delinquencies converting into write-offs. He also inquired about the initial loss expectations for the company's subprime loan pools.

Answer

SVP Jon Daniels confirmed that during the quarter, they observed that delinquencies began to 'erode a little bit' and roll to loss at a higher rate than in the recent past, which prompted the 'outsized' provision adjustment. Regarding subprime, he outlined the different loss profiles, with Tier 1 historically at 2-2.5% and Tier 3 being significantly higher, emphasizing a prudent and flexible approach to entering that space. President & CEO William Nash reinforced that true-ups to the provision have been ongoing.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about Costco's latest outlook on long-term warehouse potential, both in the U.S. and globally, and whether most of the company's significant price investments are concentrated on Kirkland Signature products, given the examples provided.

Answer

Gary Millerchip, Chief Financial Officer, reiterated a long-term goal of 30+ new warehouses annually, split roughly evenly between the U.S. and international markets. Regarding price investments, he explained that Kirkland Signature examples reflect Costco's deep cost understanding and commitment to being the first to lower prices, achieved through close supplier collaboration, global buying, and efficiency improvements without compromising quality.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about Costco's latest thoughts on long-term warehouse potential in the U.S. and globally, and if the heaviest price investments are primarily on Kirkland Signature products, given the examples provided.

Answer

Gary Millerchip (CFO, Costco Wholesale Corporation) reiterated a goal of 30+ new warehouses annually for the next 5-10 years, with roughly half in the U.S. and half internationally, spread across existing markets. He explained that Kirkland Signature examples reflect a strong understanding of costs and a commitment to being the first to lower prices, achieved through close supplier collaboration, global buying, and efficiency without compromising quality.

Scot Ciccarelli inquired if the 6% membership growth reflected delayed benefits from membership sharing crackdowns and if an acceleration is expected. He also asked if new executive membership benefits were driving a more favorable mix for new incoming members.

Answer

EVP & CFO Gary Millerchip stated that data does not indicate a direct link between current member sign-ups and past membership sharing changes. He noted encouragement from member reaction to added value, such as extended hours and Instacart benefits, and the growth in executive membership profile, which typically leads to more engaged and frequent shoppers.

Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities noted Costco's consistent EBIT margin expansion over the past several quarters and asked if this trend is a conscious decision and if there's any reason to expect it to change.

Answer

CFO Gary Millerchip downplayed a focus on quarter-to-quarter results, emphasizing a long-term management philosophy. He explained that while the company benefited from factors like improved fresh food productivity this quarter, the core strategy remains reinvesting the majority of efficiencies back into lower prices to drive top-line growth. Over the long term, he believes this can still allow for slight margin increases.

Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities noted Costco's consistent year-over-year EBIT margin increases for several consecutive quarters and asked if there was any reason to expect this trend to change, suggesting it appears to be a conscious decision.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Gary Millerchip stated that the company is less focused on individual quarterly results and more on long-term value creation. He explained that while the model allows for some margin increase over time, the primary philosophy is to reinvest about 90% of efficiencies and cost savings back into lower prices for members to drive top-line growth. He cautioned against expecting a specific quarterly cadence, as investments and market conditions can cause fluctuations.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about Costco's merchandising strategy in the face of potential tariffs, questioning if the focus would be on maintaining value leadership for existing items or aggressively sourcing from other countries.

Answer

Executive Ron Vachris stated the strategy would be 'a little bit of both.' He highlighted the flexibility of the 'Treasure Hunt' model to find replacement items while also noting that since tariffs affect everyone, Costco's reduced SKU model and strong supplier partnerships position them well to manage any challenges.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about the frequency of non-members shopping at Costco prior to the new ID scanning rollout and inquired about the company's broader inflation and deflation expectations for fiscal 2025.

Answer

Ron Vachris, an executive, stated he could not provide a specific number on non-member shopping frequency but reiterated that membership has always been exclusive. Gary Millerchip, an executive, addressed inflation, noting it was effectively flat in the quarter. He observed slight inflation in fresh foods (driven by produce) and food/sundries, offset by deflation in non-foods. He mentioned mixed commodity trends and stated that Costco is not seeing anything to suggest a dramatic shift from the current environment.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about the positive margin impact of nearly two straight years of inventory declines on markdown activity and shrink, and at what point Dollar General would need to start rebuilding its inventory levels.

Answer

Todd Vasos, CEO, declined to quantify the exact impact but confirmed that intentional SKU reduction (over 2,500 everyday SKUs) has contributed to positive results. He stated there is no current need to rebuild inventory levels, as many categories are at optimal levels, with further optimization opportunities remaining. He emphasized that these efforts have not negatively impacted the top line, with high fill rates and strong customer traffic indicating continued confidence.

Scot Ciccarelli highlighted a shift in consumer behavior where traffic is now dropping, contrary to historical patterns of higher traffic and lower tickets during times of pressure. He asked for the reason behind this change.

Answer

CEO Todd Vasos explained that the traffic number was softer because it was lapping a positive traffic result from the prior year. He expressed satisfaction with the traffic gains achieved and noted that the higher average ticket was partly driven by discretionary purchases, a positive sign of consumer health.

Scot Ciccarelli requested more details on Five Below's marketing changes, which appear to have driven a significant shift, and sought clarification on the Q4 comp cadence, specifically if November's performance was within the 6%-8% guidance range.

Answer

CFO Dan Sullivan confirmed that November's performance, including the holiday, was in line with the 6%-8% guide. CEO Winnie Park explained that marketing spend was redirected to social and digital channels, focusing on curated storytelling and creator-produced content, leading to improved ROAS and traffic. She also mentioned testing a toy catalog for Q4.

Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities followed up on the tariff impact, asking for more detail on how to model the costs on a go-forward basis, considering the company's mitigation efforts.

Answer

COO Ken Bull detailed the outlook, noting significant operating margin deleverage of about 350 basis points is expected in the second half of the year. He specified that approximately 70% of this pressure will be in gross margin, driven by tariffs, with the remaining 30% in SG&A from factors like higher incentive costs and labor investments.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for clarification on the projected tariff impact on margins, questioning whether the guidance assumes only a margin effect or also includes a potential impact on sales.

Answer

CFO Kristy Chipman clarified the full-year tariff impact is approximately 100 basis points on margin. CEO Winnie Park elaborated that mitigation strategies include leveraging the company's flexible business model, strong vendor partnerships, surgical price adjustments, and a new global sourcing office in India. COO Ken Bull added that potential demand degradation from price changes has been factored into the guidance.

Scot Ciccarelli asked which customer cohorts drove the sequential improvement in traffic, specifically questioning if performance was concentrated among the previously weak lower-income consumer segment.

Answer

Interim CEO Ken Bull responded that the company observed consistent performance across its various income demographics, which aligns with historical trends and was viewed as a positive development.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities questioned why the business performance declined so rapidly if the underlying issues were long-standing. He also asked if the renewed focus on lower price points would result in significant average selling price (ASP) compression.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Kenneth Bull attributed the sharp slowdown to a culmination of factors, including mounting pressure on lower-income consumers and significant underperformance in the seasonal summer category. Regarding pricing, he clarified that the strategy is to re-emphasize key items at $1, $3, and $5 price points, not to implement broad price cuts, thus not expecting major ASP compression. He stressed that value is a combination of trend, quality, and price.

Scot Ciccarelli questioned whether Dollar Tree's Q4 and next year's comparable store sales would exhibit a similar mix of negative traffic and ticket-driven growth as seen in Q3, given the ongoing multi-price expansion.

Answer

CEO Mike Creedon differentiated the current multi-price strategy from the 'Break the Dollar' moment, asserting it's more strategic and customer-responsive, and expressed confidence in how traffic will evolve. CFO Stewart Glendinning added that the overall strategy, focusing on shelf productivity, marketing, and improved store operations, is designed to enhance both traffic and ticket.

Scot Ciccarelli asked if the negative traffic observed in Q3, combined with continued multi-price expansion, suggests that Q4 and next year's comp mix will similarly be driven primarily by ticket rather than traffic.

Answer

CEO Mike Creedon differentiated the current strategic multi-price approach from the 'Break the Dollar' initiative, highlighting a more strategic opportunity this time. CFO Stewart Glendinning added that the overall strategy, encompassing shelf productivity, marketing, and improved store operations, is designed to enhance both traffic and ticket flow.

Scot Ciccarelli requested more details on the challenging and volatile consumer environment Dollar Tree is observing and the reasons behind the change in the TSA outlook.

Answer

CEO Michael Creedon expressed caution due to unknowns like past price increases and full tariff impacts, but affirmed Dollar Tree's strong value proposition. CFO Stuart Glendinning clarified that TSA income is lower than expected ($55-60M vs. $95M), but other cost savings offset the impact for the current year, creating a gap for 2026.

Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities sought clarification on the $70 million COGS impact from tariffs, asking if it's a one-time cost that must be absorbed and offset elsewhere or if those specific costs can be recovered in the second half.

Answer

CEO Michael Creedon described the impact as a near-term timing issue, as the company's five mitigation levers take time to deploy fully. CFO Stewart Glendinning added that the recovery in the second half will be a mix of clawing back some one-time costs and realizing enduring benefits from the strategic changes being implemented.

Scot Ciccarelli observed that while Family Dollar seems to be improving after taking corrective actions, the Dollar Tree banner continues to face new issues each quarter. He asked if it would make sense to perform a 'harder reset' at Dollar Tree, such as through store closures or resetting labor costs, to avoid a 'death of a thousand cuts' scenario for investors.

Answer

CFO Jeff Davis framed the current issue as a recent pullback from higher-income customers, which he believes the company is well-positioned to address with its value offerings. He defended ongoing investments in store standards as crucial for this demographic. COO Mike Creedon added that the renovation and opening of over 3,000 stores this year represents a significant investment in improving the store base and evolving the business to meet customer needs.

Scot Ciccarelli observed that while Family Dollar seems to be improving after taking corrective actions, the Dollar Tree banner continues to face new issues each quarter. He asked if a 'harder reset' at Dollar Tree, such as store closures or resetting labor costs, would be prudent to avoid a 'death of a thousand cuts.'

Answer

CFO Jeff Davis responded that the company believes it is correctly positioned to meet customer needs with its multi-price offering and that ongoing investments in store standards are crucial. COO Mike Creedon reinforced this by highlighting that over 3,000 stores will be improved this year through new builds, renovations, and conversions. Davis also defended the 99 Cents Only lease acquisition as a valuable long-term asset despite some higher-than-expected upfront costs.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for more clarity on the drivers of the referenced operating income margin expansion in 2026 at a 2%+ comparable store sales growth, specifically whether it would come from SG&A leverage, gross margin, or a combination.

Answer

Kurt Barton, EVP, CFO and Treasurer, indicated an expectation for momentum in gross margin expansion in 2026. He clarified that SG&A pressures from 2025's purposeful strategic investments (final mile, direct sales) will normalize as these initiatives become self-funding, removing incremental pressure. This normalization will allow SG&A leverage at a lower, more normalized comparable store sales rate (around low 2%), enabling modest operating margin growth.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for more clarity on the building blocks for operating income margin expansion in 2026, specifically whether it would be driven by SG&A leverage, gross margin, or a mix, given Kurt Barton's earlier comments.

Answer

Kurt Barton (EVP, CFO and Treasurer) explained that gross margin expansion is expected in 2026. He noted that SG&A pressures from strategic investments in 2025 (like final mile and direct sales) are not expected to be incremental in 2026, as these initiatives are anticipated to be self-funding. This normalization allows for SG&A leverage at a lower, more normalized comp rate (low 2% range), leading to modest operating margin growth.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked for broader thoughts on the competitive environment, noting the expansion of large players like Amazon, Walmart, and Lowe's into rural markets and delivery services.

Answer

President & CEO Hal Lawton acknowledged that the farm and ranch channel has always attracted competition. He emphasized that Tractor Supply has a strong track record of success and its focus remains on serving customers through legendary service, a convenient product assortment, and value pricing. He expressed confidence in their position as an integral part of rural retail.

On behalf of Scott Ciccarelli, Josh Young asked for details on vendor requests for price increases, including how widespread they are and if Tractor Supply has begun passing them on to consumers.

Answer

CEO Hal Lawton clarified that Tractor Supply is not taking price increases at this time due to market uncertainty. He acknowledged that vendors are incurring significant tariff costs and that conversations about managing the value chain are expected to begin in the coming weeks and months.

Scot Ciccarelli sought clarification on whether same-SKU deflation is expected to flip to inflation in 2025 and asked if the company could quantify the business impact from the recent decline in farm income.

Answer

CFO Kurt Barton indicated that the shift from deflation to inflation has been pushed out, with a neutral point now expected in Q1 or Q2 of 2025. Regarding farm income, he stated that the company sees little direct correlation to its business, as the majority of its customers are not professional farmers and do not rely on farming as their primary income source.

Scot Ciccarelli sought clarification on whether same-SKU deflation is expected to become inflationary in 2025 and asked if the company could quantify the business impact from declining farm income.

Answer

CFO Kurt Barton stated that the transition from deflation to inflation has been pushed out, now potentially occurring in Q1 or Q2 of 2025. He also noted that the company sees very little correlation between its business performance and farm income levels, as the majority of its customers are not professional farmers and do not rely on it as their primary income source.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for an update on the performance of Ollie's stores located near recently closed Big Lots stores and questioned if the historical 'reverse new store waterfall' effect is a concern for 2026 given the accelerated unit growth.

Answer

EVP and CFO Robert Helm reported that in markets where Big Lots stores closed and did not reopen, Ollie's is seeing a low-to-mid single-digit comp lift above the rest of the chain. Regarding the new store waterfall, he noted that while new stores are performing very well, it's too early to determine the impact on the historical trend due to the new 'warm box' opening strategy, and they will continue to monitor the data.

Scot Ciccarelli requested color on the magnitude of the comp outperformance in stores near closed Big Lots locations and asked what is being built in for cannibalization. He also sought reassurance that the company can avoid the operational strains seen during the Toys R Us acquisition.

Answer

Executive Robert Helm indicated the comp lift near closed Big Lots is in the low-to-mid-single digits but noted it's hard to parse out. He also stated that sophisticated, algorithm-based site selection minimizes cannibalization. Executive Eric van der Valk added that unlike in 2019, the company now has ample distribution center capacity and has made infrastructure investments to handle the accelerated growth smoothly.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for early indications of sales capture from closed Big Lots stores and inquired about any significant future investments in areas like distribution centers or technology that could create margin headwinds.

Answer

CFO Robert Helm noted it was too early for a definitive readout on sales capture but mentioned seeing 'glimmers of pickup.' He clarified that major investments to support growth have already been made, so no significant new SG&A or tech spending is anticipated. He added that while a fifth DC is a few years off, they can expand two existing facilities first.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked for examples of incremental deal flow gained from Big Lots' reduced scale and requested a way to size the profit margin drag from the accelerated new store growth.

Answer

CEO Eric van der Valk confirmed Ollie's is seeing increased product pipelines, particularly in consumables, that were previously directed to Big Lots. CFO Robert Helm acknowledged a meaningful profit drag from the high number of young stores but did not quantify it, noting it sets up a strong exit rate into fiscal 2026 as those stores mature.

Scot Ciccarelli requested an update on the incremental sales generated from the Complex Pro efforts, following up on a previously disclosed figure, and asked about the growth trajectory in markets where these capabilities have been rolled out.

Answer

Chair, CEO & President Ted Decker declined to provide a new incremental sales figure but affirmed that momentum is building. He described a 'virtuous cycle' where an engaged sales force is empowered by a step-change improvement in on-time, complete delivery, leveraging the company's extensive network of distribution centers and stores. He noted that the rollout of trade credit is in its very early stages, with only a few thousand of millions of Pro customers onboarded, representing a significant future opportunity. Learnings from SRS and GMS are helping Home Depot operate more like a professional wholesale distributor.

Scot Ciccarelli requested an update on the rollout of capabilities for the complex Pro in the 17 designated markets and the relative performance of those markets. He also asked for clarification on how the SRS acquisition will be layered into the comp sales calculation for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CEO Edward Decker clarified that they are still focused on the same 17 markets, with progress being made in maturing the sales team, pricing, and delivery, which is at an all-time best for on-time and complete metrics. EVP and CFO Richard McPhail explained that SRS will enter the comp base in mid-June and will be included in the total company comp, but not in the U.S. retail comp, to maintain a clean view of the core retail business. He noted SRS is expected to meet its mid-single-digit growth target for the year.

Scot Ciccarelli requested an update on the rollout of capabilities for the complex Pro in the 17 designated markets and asked for clarification on how the SRS acquisition will be incorporated into the comp sales calculation.

Answer

CEO Edward Decker reported continued progress in the 17 markets across sales, pricing, and delivery, with a current focus on completing IT work for order management. CFO Richard McPhail clarified that SRS will enter the comp base in mid-Q2 and will be reported as part of the total company comp, not the U.S. comp, to maintain a clean view of the U.S. retail business.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked for details on how the company measures the $1 billion in incremental sales from its 17 complex Pro markets and what the expected ramp is for 2025. He also inquired about the biggest challenge in rolling out these Pro capabilities.

Answer

Senior EVP Ann-Marie Campbell explained that the $1 billion is measured by the sales outperformance of the 17 enhanced markets compared to other top 40 markets. She noted the focus for 2025 is on maturing existing capabilities and adding new ones like trade credit and order management. The biggest challenge, she said, is the complexity of ensuring all parts of the ecosystem work in concert at different stages of maturity to avoid customer failure points.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for an estimate of the broader weather impact beyond hurricanes and for the performance difference in the 17 markets with enhanced Pro capabilities versus the rest of the company.

Answer

EVP and CFO Richard McPhail explained it was difficult to quantify the weather impact as it was favorable nationwide. Regarding the Pro ecosystem, executive Chip Devine specified that the 17 investment markets are seeing outperformance and share gains in the 'low single digits.' Executive Hector Padilla added that in-store teams are also focused on improving the Pro experience through strategic adjustments and better resource integration.

Scot Ciccarelli asked whether the company's turnaround efforts are primarily focused on marketing analytics or if there are also significant in-center operational changes. He also requested color on the behavior of different customer cohorts.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Chris Morris responded that the focus is on both marketing and operational execution in close partnership with franchisees. He noted that while the core guest base remains stable and loyal, the company's enhanced data analytics now allow them to identify and re-engage 'downtrending' guests, successfully improving their visit frequency and returning them to a regular routine.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities inquired about the significant reduction in China sourcing from 55% to 30-35% and requested the size of the Q1 indirect tax settlement.

Answer

CEO Corie Barry explained the sourcing shift resulted from mitigation efforts with vendors, including leveraging manufacturing flexibility in other countries and diversifying the supply chain. She noted that cost increases are lower than tariff rates. CFO Matt Bilunas indicated the tax settlement was at least $13 million, as it was the primary driver for the year-over-year decrease in domestic SG&A.

Scot Ciccarelli inquired about the extent to which the early start to Black Friday deals drove the sales improvement in Q4 and asked for an assessment of the current promotional environment.

Answer

CEO Corie Barry stated the earlier start was a strategic decision to cater to a value-oriented consumer, using tactics like 'Doorbusters' and targeted digital offers. CFO Matt Bilunas added that the Q4 promotional environment is expected to remain intense, similar to the rest of the year. He noted that while promotional elasticity has been inconsistent, the company's price perception has improved, and promotions are effective during key value-seeking moments.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked for clarification on the sales comparisons for the remainder of the quarter and inquired about the consumer adoption mix for new AI-enabled laptops.

Answer

CFO Matt Bilunas provided the prior year's comparable sales declines for August (-6%), September (-7%), and October (-8%). CEO Corie Barry added that while new CoPilot+ laptops were a small part of sales, the overall laptop category remains strong due to a replacement and upgrade cycle. She highlighted the 'halo effect' of AI innovation, which boosts the entire category by creating excitement and leveraging Best Buy's enhanced in-store experiences and expert labor.

Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities, Inc. asked for quantification of the comp contribution from hubs and mega hubs, whether new national account wins had an outsized impact on commercial growth, and if there was any related merchandise margin impact.

Answer

CEO Philip Daniele declined to quantify the specific comp lift from hubs but stated it was 'pretty robust.' He indicated that share gains were broad-based across national, regional, and local accounts, driven by internal initiatives rather than any single factor. He also confirmed that different customer segments have slightly different margin rates but that it was not a material impact on the overall commercial business.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities asked for a quantification of the sales comp contribution from hub and mega hub stores and questioned whether new national account wins had an outsized impact on commercial growth.

Answer

CEO Philip Daniele described the comp lift from hubs as 'robust' but declined to provide a specific number. He emphasized that commercial growth was broad-based across national, regional, and local accounts, attributing the success to core initiatives like assortment and delivery speed rather than any single factor. He added that margin impacts from customer mix were not material.

Josh Young, on for Scott Ciccarelli at Truist Securities, asked how potentially higher new car prices from tariffs could impact AutoZone's business in calendar 2025, as consumers might opt to repair existing vehicles.

Answer

CFO Jamere Jackson agreed that higher vehicle prices historically create a tailwind for the repair business, as consumers hold onto cars longer. Executive Philip Daniele supported this, adding that other key industry drivers, like the increasing average age of vehicles (now 12.6 years) and miles driven, remain favorable for the aftermarket.

Scot Ciccarelli of Truist Securities sought clarification on whether expected performance improvements were due to easier comps or underlying business momentum and asked about the competitive pricing environment from mass retailers.

Answer

CFO Jamere Jackson and Executive Philip Daniele stated that improvement is expected from both easier comps and momentum from growth initiatives, improved execution, and potential market share gains. Daniele noted that AutoZone's strategy remains unchanged as mass retailers do not compete in the vast majority of its hard parts categories.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for a reconciliation between the strong reported growth in advertising (50%) and membership (15%) and the lower growth in the 'Membership and other' P&L line, and also inquired about the scale of past eCommerce losses.

Answer

CFO John David Rainey clarified that the 50% advertising growth included the VIZIO acquisition; the comparable growth was 27%. He explained that the 'Membership and other' P&L line includes other items like sustainability and recycling revenue, which accounts for the different growth rate. He declined to quantify historical eCommerce losses but confirmed they have been consistently improving for years.

Scot Ciccarelli asked for an update on the contribution of ancillary revenue streams to EBIT growth and whether the drivers (advertising, membership, 3P) could be ranked.

Answer

CFO John David Rainey stated that membership and advertising contributed slightly more than half of the operating income improvement and nearly one-third of the total operating income, similar to the prior quarter. Walmart International CEO Kathryn McLay added that these higher-margin businesses are the primary reason profit is growing faster than sales, highlighting strong growth in international advertising and membership.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about the size of the big-ticket project business and what catalysts, such as consumer confidence or lower interest rates, are needed to unlock demand in that segment.

Answer

CEO Marvin Ellison stated that while consumer balance sheets are healthy, the DIY customer continues to pull back on large discretionary projects due to elevated mortgage rates. CFO Brandon Sink added that affordability remains the primary concern and a recovery is not baked into the 2025 outlook. EVP, Merchandising, Bill Boltz highlighted appliances as a consistent bright spot within the big-ticket category, showing strength across all major product lines.

Scot Ciccarelli asked about the relative size of the big-ticket project business and what catalysts, such as improved consumer confidence or lower interest rates, are needed to stimulate demand in that segment.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Marvin Ellison stated that while the consumer's financial health is solid, the DIY customer continues to delay large, discretionary projects, a trend he attributed to elevated mortgage rates. EVP and CFO Brandon Sink added that housing affordability remains the primary headwind and that a significant rebound in big-ticket discretionary spending is not factored into the 2025 outlook. However, EVP, Merchandising Bill Boltz identified the appliance business as a consistent bright spot within the big-ticket category.