Scott Marks

Scott Marks asked how investment dollars would be spent on mainstream loaf brands, the current portfolio mix of differentiated products versus long-term goals, and what other changes retailers are making to address market pressures beyond adding small loaves.

Answer

Chairman & CEO A. Ryals McMullian explained that investments in mainstream brands like Nature's Own will be a mix of marketing and promotional support, which is consistent with past strategy. He stated that small loaves are a small but growing part of the portfolio. He confirmed that differentiated products will become a larger part of the portfolio over time. Regarding retailers, he noted significant space gains for organics like DKB, particularly in mass channels, but said that beyond small loaf segments, not many other major shelf reallocations have occurred yet, though he anticipates more changes to reflect consumer trends.

Scott Marks asked how investment dollars would be allocated for mainstream loaf brands, the current portfolio mix of differentiated products versus long-term goals, and what other changes retailers are making to address market pressures beyond adding smaller loaves.

Answer

CEO A. Ryals McMullian explained that investment in mainstream brands will continue to be a mix of marketing and promotional support. He stated that the differentiated part of the portfolio will continue to grow and become a bigger focus. Regarding retailer actions, he noted significant space gains for organic products like Dave's Killer Bread, particularly in mass channels, which highlights the market's bifurcation. He anticipates retailers will further reallocate shelf space to reflect new consumer trends in the future.

Scott Marks of Jefferies asked for details on the performance of the private label and away-from-home segments. He also inquired about a recent bakery closure and the consumer reception of smaller loaf sizes.

Answer

CEO Ryals McMullian explained that away-from-home weakness reflects a broader foodservice decline, though segment profitability is improving. For private label, he cited lost bid business as the driver of declines, which is now being refilled. The bakery closure was part of ongoing supply chain optimization. McMullian added that smaller loafs are performing well, meeting consumer needs for value and smaller households.

Scott Marks asked about the company's observations regarding consumer health and weakening U.S. consumer sentiment, and how Hershey is thinking about this heading into the holidays and 2026. He also inquired about potential headwinds from changes to the SNAP program, including policy changes and government shutdown-related issues, and their context for the business.

Answer

CEO Kirk Tanner acknowledged a challenging consumer market but stated that the category remains resilient, running at historic levels despite pressures, and expressed confidence in the company's position. Regarding SNAP, he noted that about 2% of SNAP dollars are in the CMG category, and while it's early days, the company expects a minimal impact on the category in 2026, continuously monitoring consumer behaviors.

Scott Marks asked about Hershey's observations on consumer health, given broader weakening U.S. consumer sentiment, and how the company is thinking about this heading into the holidays and 2026. He also inquired about potential headwinds from changes to the SNAP program, including both policy and temporary government shutdown-related issues, asking for context on their impact to the business.

Answer

President and CEO Kirk Tanner acknowledged a challenging consumer market but noted the CMG category remains resilient, running at historic levels despite pressures, expressing confidence in Hershey's position. Regarding SNAP, he stated that about 2% of SNAP dollars are in the CMG category and that Hershey has seen minimal impact so far. He expects a minimal impact in 2026 due to state and federal dynamics, emphasizing continuous monitoring of consumer behaviors.

Scott Marks from Jefferies inquired about cocoa supply dynamics, specifically the balance of recovery from West Africa versus new origins. He also asked about the C-store channel outlook and retailer response to new initiatives.

Answer

SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil noted positive signs in the cocoa market, including lower grinds and a potential surplus, with other origins outside West Africa playing a larger role. Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck added that C-store retailers have responded strongly to initiatives like the 'gold standard planogram,' which has driven high single-digit category growth for them, creating momentum despite lower channel traffic.

Scott Marks asked about cocoa supply dynamics, specifically the balance of recovery from West Africa versus new origins, and about the response from convenience store retailers to Hershey's new initiatives.

Answer

SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil noted positive signs in the cocoa market and stated that a larger surplus could be achieved through both better farming in West Africa and continued growth in new origins. Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck added that convenience retailers have responded very strongly to initiatives like the 'gold standard planogram,' which has driven significant category growth for them.

Scott Marks inquired about cocoa supply dynamics, specifically the expected recovery from West Africa versus new origins, and asked about the response from convenience store retailers to Hershey's new initiatives.

Answer

SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil noted positive signs in the cocoa market, including lower grinds and a potential surplus, driven by better farming practices and growth in origins outside West Africa. Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck added that retailer response in the convenience channel has been very strong, with new planograms driving high single-digit category growth for partners, creating strong momentum for Hershey's business despite lower channel traffic.

Scott Marks asked how Hershey would reinvest in the business if cocoa prices were to fall significantly and inquired about performance trends in retail channels beyond convenience stores.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil said they would continue investing in brands and capabilities, which haven't been short-changed, and would also deploy cash to shareholders. CEO Michele Buck noted a continued consumer shift to value channels like club and dollar, with the take-home segment showing strong mid-single-digit growth.

Scott Marks inquired about the cannibalization factor of new stores on existing markets, asking for an update on that dynamic. He also asked about Sprouts' exposure to SNAP spend and any impacts from policy changes or potential government shutdowns.

Answer

CFO Curtis Valentine stated that the cannibalization factor remains in the 125-150 basis point range, in line with expectations, and will grow as new store count increases. He noted that SNAP spend is a limited impact, historically 2-3% of sales, and while not helping, it's not a huge impact to the business.

Scott Marks asked for an update on the cannibalization factor from new stores impacting existing markets, given the strong performance of new stores. He also inquired about Sprouts' exposure to SNAP spend and any impacts observed from policy changes or the potential government shutdown.

Answer

Curtis Valentine, Chief Financial Officer, stated that the cannibalization factor remained in the same general range (125-150 basis points) and was in line with expectations, noting it would grow as the number of new stores ramps up. Regarding SNAP, he indicated it represents about 2-3% of the business, a limited impact, and that the effects of policy changes or a shutdown were just starting to be seen, not a huge impact but certainly not helping.

Scott Marks from Jefferies asked how Sprouts is approaching the increasing competition in attribute-based products like high-protein. He also inquired about the strategy for maintaining produce freshness as the company expands into new regions like the Northeast.

Answer

CEO Jack Sinclair affirmed that protein is a key trend and Sprouts is well-positioned with an expanding assortment, aiming to be a leader. Regarding freshness, he detailed the strategy of locating stores near distribution centers, empowering local sourcing teams, and managing inventory to ensure quality, even for products shipped long distances.

Scott Marks noted that Sprouts' broad-based category growth differs from traditional retailers and asked for detail on which areas were performing relatively better or weaker. He also asked for clarification on a comment from the investor deck about new store growth being offset by cannibalization, requesting insight on its magnitude.

Answer

CEO Jack Sinclair and President/COO Nick Konat explained that differentiated categories with strong attributes—like dairy, frozen, grocery, and vitamins—are outperforming. They emphasized that innovative and attribute-forward products are winning across the board, with no categories seen as laggards. CFO Curtis Valentine quantified cannibalization at approximately 100-150 basis points, primarily in established markets, but noted the strong performance of new stores entering the comp base creates a slight net benefit currently.

Scott Marks asked for insights into the softness in China food service and what gives McCormick confidence in a gradual recovery for the rest of this year and stronger performance next year. He also inquired about the magnitude of impact from reformulations, specifically potential pressure on legacy branded products, to gauge offsets to broader food softness.

Answer

Brendan Foley, Chairman, President, and CEO, explained that Q3 was impacted by austerity measures affecting high-end dining, leading to consumption shifts to lower-cost/greater-value out-of-home channels. McCormick is diversifying and expanding distribution in these shifting channels, seeing strength in its retail business (smaller format stores). This, combined with an easier Q4 comparison, provides confidence in slight to gradual growth for China, and he reiterated a long-term belief in the market's opportunity. Regarding reformulations, Brendan Foley viewed them as addressing consumer needs, having a positive impact on all brands. He emphasized the timing aspect, noting that larger projects take time (e.g., 2027 for some announcements) and it's a continuation of industry innovation to keep brands relevant.

Scott Marks inquired about the specific factors contributing to the softness in McCormick's China food service business and the basis for confidence in a gradual recovery for 2025, potentially strengthening into 2026. He also asked about the magnitude and timing of the impact of reformulations on legacy branded products, seeking to understand their role in offsetting broader food softness.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Brendan Foley explained that China food service softness was due to austerity measures impacting high-end dining, leading to a consumption shift to lower-cost channels. He expressed confidence in recovery based on diversification into high-growth channels, expanded distribution in smaller format stores, and strong retail business performance, noting an easier Q4 comparison. Regarding reformulations, he viewed them as a continuation of industry innovation to address consumer demands (e.g., natural ingredients), expecting a positive impact on brands over time, but with a longer validation and launch timeline.

Scott Marks inquired about the expected growth cadence for the Flavor Solutions segment in the second half of the year and asked about the current nature of discussions with retailers regarding innovation and pricing.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Brendan Foley stated that for Flavor Solutions, he expects H1 trends to be sustained in the Americas and APAC, with EMEA likely stabilizing as it laps weaker prior-year results. EVP & CFO Marcos Gabriel added that more surgical pricing will occur in the segment in H2. Foley described conversations with retailers as 'very positive and collaborative,' focused on mutual category growth, with recent distribution gains serving as proof of the strong partnership.

Scott Marks asked about the expected growth cadence for the volatile Flavor Solutions segment in H2 and the nature of current conversations with retailers on innovation and pricing.

Answer

CEO Brendan Foley expects Flavor Solutions trends in the Americas and APAC to be sustained, while EMEA should stabilize against weak prior-year comparisons. CFO Marcos Gabriel added that more pricing will occur in this segment in H2. Foley described retailer conversations as 'positive' and 'collaborative,' with their strong category performance, innovation, and brand support leading to productive discussions and distribution gains.

Scott Marks asked about the drivers behind recent business wins with QSR customers, C-stores, and other away-from-home categories, specifically whether price support or other factors were key. He also sought an update on the overall traffic environment in the U.S. and internationally, and customer expectations for the remainder of the calendar and fiscal year.

Answer

CEO Mike Smith attributed business wins to improved customer engagement, joint business planning, and a cross-functional approach, emphasizing that customers are prioritizing service quality, consistency, and innovation over just price. He noted QSR traffic was flat overall, with Burger QSR down and Chicken QSR up, and expressed interest in new value meal offerings. CFO Bernadette Madarieta added that international QSR traffic was mixed, with the UK down 4% and other markets showing varied performance.

Scott Marks asked about the primary drivers behind Lamb Weston's recent business wins, including expansion with QSR customers and in C-stores and other away-from-home categories, questioning if price support or other factors were more influential. He also inquired about the overall traffic environment in the U.S. and internationally, and what customers are communicating for the remainder of the calendar and fiscal year.

Answer

CEO Mike Smith attributed the business wins to a changed approach in customer engagement, emphasizing joint business planning and a cross-functional strategy. He noted that North American customers are increasingly prioritizing service quality, consistency, and innovation over just price, leading to high contract retention rates and tailwinds from new customers. Regarding traffic, Mr. Smith mentioned flat overall QSR traffic, with Burger QSR down (though improving sequentially) and Chicken QSR up, and expressed interest in new value meal offerings. CFO Bernadette Madarieta added that international QSR traffic was mixed, with the UK down 4% but some markets like France, Germany, and Spain showing slight increases.

Scott Marks from Jefferies sought clarification on management's comments about announced international capacity additions being potentially canceled or delayed. He also asked for more detail on the fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance and the long-term outlook for CapEx as a percentage of sales.

Answer

President & CEO Mike Smith stated that based on competitive intelligence, they believe 1 to 1.5 billion pounds of international capacity have been canceled or delayed, noting the industry has historically been rational. CFO Bernadette Madarieta clarified the $500 million CapEx plan for FY26, explaining it reflects a shift from growth to modernization and maintenance, which she expects to be around 3% and 2% of sales respectively, plus an additional $100 million for environmental projects.

Scott Marks from Jefferies asked for clarification on the sales value represented by the Hostess SKUs being rationalized. He also inquired about the potential impact on winter pricing plans and P&L timing if a tariff exemption on coffee were to be granted.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker advised against focusing on the sales impact of the SKU reduction, expressing confidence that growth in core sub-brands like Donettes will offset any losses. CFO Tucker Marshall explained that if tariff relief were granted, the full $0.50 negative EPS impact would not be immediately reversed due to timing and costs already realized. Any update to guidance would depend on the timing and nature of the relief.

Scott Marks asked for the financial magnitude of the pet inventory reduction in Q4 and whether it was driven by more than just consumer pullback. He also requested more insight into the company's expectation for fiscal 2027 to be an "on-algorithm" growth year for EPS.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall quantified the pet inventory destocking impact at approximately $20 million in Q4 and stated it was believed to be retailer-specific, not consumer-driven. He explained that the confidence in FY27 stems from the belief that the significant headwinds of FY26 (coffee elasticity, tariffs, marketing investment) are not expected to recur.

Scott Marks asked if there was retailer pushback on the sweet baked snacks category given recent performance. He also inquired about the sustainability of coffee supply and long-term commodity trends.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker stated there has been no retailer pushback on sweet baked snacks and that the company is working closely with them on shelf sets and innovation. Regarding coffee, he described the high commodity costs as cyclical, driven by a supply deficit, and expressed confidence in long-term normalization due to industry-wide efforts in farming and crop science.

Scott Marks asked if there has been any retailer pushback on the sweet baked snacks category and inquired about long-term sustainability or supply concerns for the coffee commodity, similar to issues seen in cocoa.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker stated there has been no retailer pushback on sweet baked snacks; on the contrary, the company is working closely with them on shelf sets and has a strong innovation pipeline. Regarding coffee, he characterized the high prices as a cyclical commodity issue driven by a supply deficit, expressing confidence that the market will normalize over time, aided by industry efforts to support farmers and develop climate-resistant crops.

The analyst asked for clarification on the allocation of restructuring charges, the drivers of lower retail profitability and future marketing spend expectations, and the reasons for the volume decline in the foodservice segment.

Answer

The restructuring charges were unallocated as the facility served both segments. Retail profitability was impacted by a strategic increase in marketing spend, a difficult year-over-year comparison, and negative price/cost from ag inflation; margins are expected to be flat to growing going forward. The foodservice volume decline was primarily due to lapping LTO pullbacks from large customers, which was partially offset by growth elsewhere and is expected to be lapped in the back half of the year.

Asked about the journey to achieving the strong Q2 gross margin and its sustainability. He also inquired about the specific drivers behind the volume growth in Lancaster's owned brands (Marzetti, New York Bakery). Lastly, he asked for perspective on the current promotional environment.

Answer

The executive explained that margin recovery is due to overcoming prior inflation and a renewed focus on productivity. They expect to continue building on this margin level. Owned brand growth was attributed to specific product successes and strong retail execution. Regarding promotions, the company is cautious about increasing trade spend, as data shows it doesn't always drive significant incrementality.

Scott Marks asked about the impact of higher input costs from product reformulations and regulatory changes on the portfolio, and also inquired about the potential competitive impact of the W.K. Kellogg acquisition.

Answer

COO Jeff Zadoks explained that Post will use innovation to address new trends and take a pragmatic, tactical approach to reformulating ingredients over time, without major changes expected in fiscal 2026. Regarding the Kellogg deal, President and CEO Rob Vitale suggested the acquirer's scale could enhance the category but was hesitant to comment further until the transaction closes.

Scott Marks inquired about Post's stance on increasing promotional activity in the cereal category and asked for initial learnings from the recent acquisition of PPI.

Answer

COO Jeff Zadoks stated that cereal promotions are at normal levels and Post's strategy is to focus on programs that drive value, not just promotions for their own sake. Regarding PPI, he noted the integration ramp-up was slower than expected due to employee disruption but that the deal will fit well and has uncovered some longer-term synergies.

Scott Marks requested an update on the company's progress in rebuilding its internal inventories to target levels. He also asked about the potential impact of avian flu disruptions and price normalization in the broader commodity egg market on Vital Farms' business.

Answer

CFO Thilo Wrede stated that they are continuing to build inventory, aiming for two to three weeks of egg supply to improve operational efficiency and prepare for the Q4 busy season. CEO Russell Diez-Canseco asserted that commodity egg pricing has a very limited impact on their business, as they operate in a different part of the market and appeal to a different set of consumer needs.

Scott Marks from Jefferies asked for more details on SG&A savings and targeted overhead reductions, and also inquired about the innovation pipeline and its expected contribution to sales growth for the current year and beyond.

Answer

CFO Ruben Baldew explained that SG&A savings were driven by overhead reductions, including bonus releases and a focus on indirect cost competitiveness, with these efforts continuing into 2026. CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker added that innovation and renovation are expected to nearly double their contribution from 2024's 10% level. He highlighted renovation's role in defending against private labels and new innovations in snacking, such as protein balls and fish strips, which will be scaled across countries.

Scott Marks inquired about the specifics of the retailer destocking, asking which countries or categories were most affected, and requested an updated outlook on category growth and Nomad's expected market share performance.

Answer

CFO Ruben Baldew explained that the destocking was broad-based across most of their European markets and product segments, but he believes the majority of the impact is now complete. CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker added that the frozen category remains healthy and that he expects Nomad to gain market share as the year progresses, driven by growth initiatives scheduled for later quarters, while noting the UK faces tougher comparisons.

Scott Marks asked for more detail on the retailer inventory destocking, inquiring which specific countries or categories were most affected, and for an updated outlook on category growth and market share for the year.

Answer

CFO Ruben Baldew explained that the destocking was broad-based, affecting 12 to 13 of the 15 countries they track, and was not concentrated in any specific segment. CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker added that the frozen category remains healthy, and while the company's top-line guidance was slightly reduced, they expect to grow market share in the upcoming quarters. He noted that Q1 was expected to be the softest quarter due to the timing of growth initiatives.

Scott Marks of Jefferies inquired about the retail segment's performance, specifically the reasons for reduced promotional activity in frozen novelties and the plans to restore capacity for the handhelds business following a plant fire. He also asked for details on the cost structure, particularly marketing and distribution expenses.

Answer

CEO Dan Fachner explained that promotional efforts for frozen novelties were not as deep as needed but have been course-corrected. Regarding handhelds, he stated the fire-damaged plant will be closed as another facility has successfully increased its production capacity to meet future demand. CFO Shawn Munsell added that higher marketing costs were due to seasonal summer promotions for frozen beverages and Dippin' Dots, while distribution costs are trending down due to freight optimization and exiting third-party logistics facilities.

Scott Marks from Jefferies LLC asked for more detail on the general weakness in the pretzel category, inquired about recent performance trends in the convenience channel, and questioned the company's exposure and response to new regulations on artificial ingredients.

Answer

Executive Daniel Fachner explained that while the overall pretzel category is down, the company is gaining share and reformulating its product to align with the growing Bavarian-style segment. He noted the convenience channel remains weak, down about 7% in the quarter. Regarding regulations, Fachner stated the team is proactive and has already removed red dye #3 from all products, staying ahead of legislative changes.

Scott Marks of Jefferies inquired about the extent to which tariff impacts could be mitigated through pricing and other actions, and whether the revised guidance was driven by divestitures or underlying performance.

Answer

CFO Bruce Wacha stated that the guidance reduction was almost entirely due to divestitures. CEO Casey Keller explained that while there will be a lag, the company expects to recover most tariff impacts through targeted pricing, particularly in the spices category, supplemented by productivity efforts.

Scott Marks asked if the company expects to recoup any of the volume lost from retailer inventory reductions and sought clarity on the confidence that the company will soon lap changing consumer behaviors, especially given contrary sentiment from peers.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Keller responded that he believes the retailer inventory reduction is largely permanent as retailers seek greater operational efficiency. Regarding consumer behavior, he stated it will be a gradual process rather than a single event, but the company expects to lap the largest negative comps around the middle of the year, based on its own brand and category data.

Scott Marks of Jefferies asked about the current state of the supply chain and future efficiency opportunities. He also requested color on marketing strategies across different geographies and channels.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman described the supply chain optimization as nearing completion, having achieved key plant efficiency goals ahead of schedule while maintaining excellent service. CFO Bill Kelly added that these savings support the margin profile. On marketing, Friedman noted a 44% YoY increase in Q2 spending, utilizing retail media in expansion markets, social/digital campaigns, and planned support for Boulder Canyon, aiming to connect with consumers across various touchpoints.

Scott Marks asked if bonus packs were the primary driver of volume share gains in core geographies and about incremental distribution opportunities in those markets. He also questioned what consumer behavior metrics might prompt the company to bring back the bonus pack program.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman confirmed bonus packs contributed to volume share gains but also highlighted that distribution gains for brands like On The Border and Boulder Canyon within core geographies were also key drivers. Regarding a return of bonus packs, Friedman stated the company is watching consumer value-seeking behavior and will use its full marketing mix, including pricing, promotion, and innovation, to deliver value as market conditions evolve.

Scott Marks of Jefferies asked for a breakdown of the Q3 guidance for an organic volume/mix decline in the high single digits, which seemed weaker than anticipated. He also inquired about the specific categories where pricing actions are being implemented.

Answer

CFO Patrick O'Donnell attributed the Q3 volume outlook to consistent consumer trends combined with the impact of margin management actions. CEO Steven Oakland clarified the timing, noting that business exits impact Q3, while the significant benefit from the griddle recovery will primarily be seen in Q4. O'Donnell confirmed pricing actions are largest in coffee, with minor impacts from cocoa, oils, and tariffs.

Scott Marks asked for commentary on the pressure observed in snacking categories during Q1 and sought the rationale for the conviction in a material improvement in organic volume/mix in the second half of the year.

Answer

CFO Patrick O'Donnell acknowledged that some snacking categories faced difficult year-over-year comparisons but stated the consumer trend towards snacking remains intact. He explained that the expected second-half acceleration in volume is driven by normal business seasonality and, importantly, the full recovery of the frozen griddle facility. CEO Steven Oakland added that the griddle business recovery will create a favorable lap in the fourth quarter.

Scott Marks asked about the performance of new protein-focused innovations and whether the company's price investment strategy is steady-state or focused on key seasons.

Answer

Group President Dana McNabb highlighted that protein is a strong consumer trend and that new products like Cheerios Protein have exceeded expectations. Regarding pricing, she explained the strategy is to maintain the right value proposition year-round while also increasing investment and innovation around key seasons, noting a 50% increase in seasonal innovation is planned.

Scott Marks from Jefferies asked about the performance of recent protein-focused innovations and how the company approaches price investments, comparing steady-state versus seasonal or event-driven strategies.

Answer

Group President Dana McNabb highlighted that protein is a strong consumer trend and that new products like Cheerios Protein have exceeded expectations. Regarding pricing, she explained the strategy is to maintain the right value proposition year-round while also capitalizing on key seasons with a 50% increase in planned seasonal innovation, as consumers are often willing to spend more during those times.

Scott Marks from Jefferies asked if Kroger has observed any strategic changes from national brand suppliers in response to the continued outperformance of 'Our Brands'. He also inquired about the potential impact of regulations on artificial food ingredients.

Answer

Interim CEO & Chairman Ronald Sargent stated that there has been no significant change in strategy from CPG suppliers, with their pricing and promotional activities remaining steady. Regarding regulations, he acknowledged the trend toward eliminating artificial ingredients, which CPGs and Kroger are addressing through reformulation. However, he noted that the company is currently more focused on mitigating the potential impact of tariffs.

Scott Marks of Jefferies inquired if Kroger has observed any change in strategy from its branded CPG suppliers in response to the continued outperformance of 'Our Brands'. He also asked about the potential impact of regulations, such as bans on artificial food dyes, on the center store.

Answer

Interim CEO & Chairman Ronald Sargent stated that the selling strategies of CPG suppliers have remained in a 'steady state' with no notable increase in promotional aggressiveness. Regarding regulations, he acknowledged the trend towards eliminating artificial ingredients, which both CPGs and Kroger are addressing through reformulation. However, he noted that the company is currently more focused on mitigating the potential impact of tariffs, which has been minimal so far.