Sean Steuart

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen inquired about Brookfield's confidence in its U.S. tax credit eligibility through 2029, particularly in light of potential policy changes, and asked for details on how the company plans to fulfill the 3-gigawatt Google hydro framework agreement, specifically regarding the M&A environment for U.S. hydro assets.

Answer

CEO Connor Teskey expressed high confidence in their ability to secure tax credits for their U.S. pipeline through 2029, noting their ability to pass through any cost changes to customers while preserving margins. Regarding the Google deal, Teskey mentioned the hydro M&A market is becoming more liquid, providing opportunities. Wyatt Hartley, Co-President, added that the agreement provides optionality, and the capacity could be fulfilled entirely by their existing fleet without requiring M&A, depending on Google's regional needs.

Sean Steuart from TD Cowen asked for the percentage of the North American advanced-stage pipeline that is U.S. solar and how much of that has secured equipment costs. He also questioned if the Microsoft framework agreement is exposed to potential data center deferrals.

Answer

Connor Teskey, an executive, stated that U.S. solar constitutes about 60% of the advanced-stage pipeline in North America. He assured that the vast majority of this pipeline has already secured its equipment, insulating it from recent tariff announcements. Regarding Microsoft, Teskey asserted that any data center lease adjustments are minor optimizations and do not change the historic growth trajectory or impact the framework agreement. He emphasized that the supply-demand imbalance for data center power remains robustly in their favor.

Sean Steuart of Scotiabank inquired about the Microsoft framework agreement, asking for context on 'exceeding targets,' updates on replicating similar deals, and the outlook for asset recycling returns amid market valuation pressures.

Answer

Connor Teskey, an executive, clarified that they are delivering capacity to Microsoft ahead of the 2026 start date and view the 10.5 GW target as a 'floor, not a ceiling.' He noted that while discussions for similar large-scale deals are ongoing, demand from hyperscalers is already increasing on a project-by-project basis. Regarding asset recycling, Teskey highlighted a strong market bifurcation, with robust demand for high-quality, de-risked operating assets, which the company plans to capitalize on.

Sean Steuart asked about the U.S. return profile and growth potential under a potential Republican administration, specifically regarding changes to tax credits, and also inquired about the company's broader strategic aspirations in offshore wind following the Orsted transaction.

Answer

Connor Teskey, an executive, explained that the business is largely insulated from U.S. regulatory changes due to its focus on low-cost production and corporate demand, not subsidies. He stated that if subsidies were reduced, the cost would be passed through in PPA prices, and their assets would remain the most cost-effective option. Regarding offshore wind, Teskey confirmed they are 'very bullish' on the asset class, viewing the Orsted deal as a partnership with a global leader and seeing more attractive investment opportunities in the sector now than in the past several years.

Sean Steuart asked for an expected timeline for the U.S. nuclear buildout under the Westinghouse agreement, its FFO contribution, and how Brookfield plans to hedge basis risk for a potential direct investment in the Santee Cooper project.

Answer

Connor Teskey (CEO, BEP) stated that the U.S. government is facilitating rapid development, with the first projects expected to begin in the next quarter or two, and FFO contributions ramping up significantly in 3-4 years. He noted Westinghouse's energy systems division historically operates at 20%+ margins. For Santee Cooper, Mr. Teskey explained Brookfield would only invest with appropriate protections against cost overruns and nuclear risks, potentially socializing these with offtakers, suppliers, or through financing.

Sean Steuart inquired about the expected timeline for the U.S. nuclear buildout under the Westinghouse agreement, its FFO contribution, and how Brookfield Renewable would hedge basis risk for a direct investment in the Santee Cooper project.

Answer

CEO Connor Teskey explained that development under the U.S. government partnership would start almost immediately, with revenues for Westinghouse beginning quickly and ramping up significantly in 3-4 years during the construction phase. For Santee Cooper, he stated Brookfield Renewable would only invest with appropriate protections against cost overruns and key nuclear risks, potentially through structuring investments to socialize these risks.

Sean Steuart inquired about the potential impact of political changes and executive orders on U.S. tax credit eligibility for Brookfield's pipeline and asked about the M&A environment for U.S. hydro assets needed to fulfill the Google framework agreement.

Answer

CEO Connor Teskey stated that Brookfield is confident in its ability to secure tax credits for its U.S. pipeline through 2029, leveraging its global supply chain to adapt to any policy changes and passing costs to customers to preserve margins. Regarding the Google deal, Teskey noted the hydro M&A market is becoming more liquid, and the agreement provides a 'hunting license' to pursue opportunities. Co-President Wyatt Hartley added that the agreement could also be fulfilled by their existing fleet, providing valuable optionality without requiring M&A.

Sean Steuart from TD Cowen asked for the percentage of U.S. solar within the North American advanced-stage pipeline and what portion of that has secured equipment costs. He also questioned if the 10.5-gigawatt Microsoft framework agreement is exposed to potential data center deferrals.

Answer

Executive Connor Teskey, with input from Executive Patrick Taylor, stated that U.S. solar constitutes about 60% of the advanced-stage North American pipeline. Teskey emphasized that the 'absolute vast majority' of this pipeline has already secured its equipment, insulating it from recent tariff announcements. Regarding Microsoft, he expressed increased confidence in their partnership, viewing any data center lease adjustments as minor optimizations that do not alter the massive growth trajectory or impact the framework agreement.

Sean Steuart asked for a breakdown of the U.S. advanced-stage development pipeline, specifically the percentage of solar and how much of that has secured equipment. He also questioned if the Microsoft framework agreement is exposed to recent data center deferrals.

Answer

Connor Teskey, an executive, and Patrick Taylor, an executive, stated that U.S. solar constitutes about 60% of the advanced-stage pipeline. Teskey emphasized that the 'absolute vast majority' of this pipeline has already secured its equipment, insulating it from recent tariff announcements. Regarding Microsoft, he expressed high confidence, stating any data center changes are minor optimizations and the supply-demand imbalance for power remains robust, with no negative impact on their agreement and potential for the partnership to grow.

Sean Steuart asked for more context on exceeding targets for the Microsoft framework agreement, updates on efforts to replicate such deals, and the outlook for returns on asset recycling versus organic development.

Answer

Connor Teskey (executive) explained that Brookfield Renewable expects to deliver significant capacity to Microsoft ahead of the 2026 start date and that the 10.5 GW target is a 'floor, not the ceiling.' He noted that while discussions for similar framework deals are ongoing, demand from hyperscalers is already increasing on a project-by-project basis. Regarding asset recycling, Teskey highlighted a market bifurcation with strong private demand for high-quality operating assets, which the company will capitalize on, contrasting with weaker public market sentiment.

Sean Steuart followed up on M&A, asking if more opportunities for quality assets have emerged during the three-year lumber downturn and how the opportunity set has changed. He also questioned the reluctance to take more permanent or indefinite lumber mill shutdowns given the potential proximity to the end of the downturn.

Answer

Sean McLaren, President and CEO, indicated no significant change in the M&A pipeline, noting that high-quality assets are typically held for better market conditions and no such opportunities are currently prominent. Regarding shutdowns, Sean McLaren, President and CEO, explained that decisions are based on an asset's performance in the current and future downturns, focusing on lowering costs and increasing competitiveness, irrespective of predicting the cycle's end.

Sean Steuart followed up on M&A opportunities, asking if more quality assets have become available in the North American lumber downturn and if West Fraser is reluctant to take more permanent or indefinite mill closures, given the potential nearing of the downturn's end. He also asked about working capital management.

Answer

President and CEO Sean McLaren indicated that there hasn't been a significant change in the availability of high-quality M&A assets, as sellers typically wait for better market conditions. Regarding mill closures, Sean McLaren stated that decisions are made based on an asset's performance in the current and projected future down cycles, continuously challenging operating models to lower costs and improve competitiveness, regardless of predictions about the downturn's end. EVP and CFO Chris Virostek credited operations teams for tight working capital management across receivables, lean inventories, and procurement, noting it's an ongoing focus that has been a source of strength.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen inquired about the logistics of government-industry consultation on lumber trade issues, the pipeline for discretionary CapEx projects beyond 2025, and the current M&A opportunity set for bolt-on acquisitions.

Answer

CEO Sean McLaren confirmed that open and collaborative lines of communication with government have been well-established over the past year. CFO Chris Virostek explained that while contractor availability is improving, major new CapEx decisions will await more clarity on macro and trade conditions. He added that while West Fraser has the capacity for M&A, any deal must involve quality assets that provide clear, strong synergies.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen inquired about the logistics of government-industry consultation on lumber trade, the pipeline for discretionary CapEx beyond 2025, and the current M&A opportunity set for bolt-on acquisitions.

Answer

President and CEO Sean McLaren described the government-industry relationship as collaborative, with open lines of communication established over the past year. CFO Chris Virostek explained the near-term CapEx focus is on completing current projects, with major new decisions pending greater macro and trade clarity. Regarding M&A, Virostek stated that while West Fraser has the capacity to act, any potential acquisition would be highly selective and focused on quality assets that improve the company.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen inquired about the logistics of industry consultation with the government on lumber trade issues, the company's pipeline for discretionary CapEx beyond 2025, and the current M&A opportunity set for wood products.

Answer

CEO Sean McLaren confirmed that extensive collaboration and open lines of communication with federal and provincial governments have been established over the past year. CFO Chris Virostek added that the near-term CapEx focus is on completing current projects, with major new decisions pending greater macro clarity. Regarding M&A, Virostek stated that while West Fraser has the capacity to act, any acquisition must be of high quality with a clear path to synergies.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen asked about the logistics of government-industry consultation on lumber trade issues, the future pipeline for discretionary CapEx projects, and the current M&A opportunity set in the wood products sector.

Answer

President & CEO Sean McLaren confirmed that extensive, collaborative dialogue with federal and provincial governments has been ongoing. SVP & CFO Chris Virostek explained that the near-term CapEx focus is on completing existing projects, with major new investments pending greater macro and trade clarity. On M&A, Virostek stated that while West Fraser has the balance sheet to act on opportunities, any potential acquisition would be highly selective and focused on quality assets that improve the company.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen inquired about the logistics of government-industry consultation on lumber trade, the pipeline for discretionary CapEx projects beyond 2025, and the current M&A landscape for wood products.

Answer

CEO Sean McLaren confirmed that there is a long-standing and collaborative dialogue between the industry and government. CFO Chris Virostek explained that the near-term CapEx focus is on completing current projects, with major new decisions pending greater macro clarity. On M&A, Mr. Virostek stated that while West Fraser has the balance sheet to pursue opportunities, any acquisition must be of high quality and strategically accretive.

Sean Steuart of TD Securities inquired about the logistics of government-industry consultation on lumber trade, the pipeline for discretionary CapEx projects beyond 2025, and the current M&A opportunity set for bolt-on acquisitions.

Answer

President and CEO Sean McLaren confirmed that open lines of communication with the government have been well-established through long-term collaboration. CFO Chris Virostek stated that while there is a pipeline of good projects, major new CapEx decisions will await more clarity on macro and trade conditions. On M&A, Virostek noted that West Fraser has the capacity to act but will remain selective, focusing on quality assets that offer a clear strategic benefit.

Sean Steuart asked for perspective on the potential timing and scope of the Section 232 investigation, particularly if OSB could be included, and questioned if the company was shifting production to the U.S. South. He also asked about the 2025 CapEx guidance in light of inflation risks.

Answer

President and CEO Sean McLaren stated that West Fraser has no specific visibility into the timing or what products might be included in the Section 232 investigation. He emphasized the company's focus is on operational readiness and leveraging its balanced U.S./Canadian platform to navigate any outcome. Regarding CapEx, McLaren confirmed that a large portion of the 2025 budget is for completing the Henderson project. He assured that future projects are evaluated individually and must meet return thresholds based on costs at the time of commitment, even if inflationary pressures increase.

Sean Steuart from TD Cowen questioned whether the 2025 volume guidance for SPF and OSB accounts for potential tariffs, asked about the company's ability to pass on tariff costs to customers, and sought more detail on the mentioned modest labor cost relief in the U.S.

Answer

President and CEO Sean McLaren and CFO Christopher Virostek clarified that the 2025 guidance is based on current conditions and does not speculate on potential border measures, with plans to update it as the situation evolves. Regarding pricing, McLaren and SVP Matt Tobin stated that tariffs would add to the cost floor but declined to comment on specific pricing strategies. On labor, McLaren noted that while the market is still tight, pressures have eased compared to the last few years.

Sean Steuart asked for context on recent Southern Yellow Pine price momentum, questioning if it was driven by actual market tightening or speculative buying ahead of announced capacity closures. He also sought updated thoughts on the softwood lumber trade dispute and the potential to monetize duty receivables.

Answer

President and CEO Sean McLaren and SVP and CFO Christopher Virostek clarified that the impact of their capacity reductions in the South was swift, a matter of 'days or weeks,' due to low inventory levels, suggesting the price response was based on actual tightening. Regarding the trade file, Virostek stated West Fraser has ample liquidity and does not need to borrow against duty deposits, highlighting a recent Moody's credit rating upgrade. McLaren added that while West Fraser supports managed trade, no short-term resolution is expected.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen asked about OSB operational dynamics, specifically the cost curve variance across LP's mill portfolio and how it informs downtime decisions. He also requested an updated perspective on the timing and economics of the Houlton Siding mill expansion.

Answer

CEO Brad Southern explained that the OSB cost curve is relatively flat at the mill level, so downtime decisions are primarily driven by delivered margin, which considers geographic location, transportation costs, and local demand, rather than just variable production costs. Regarding the Houlton project, he stated that detailed engineering is ongoing and more specific cost and return details will be available in the next one or two quarters, noting the project's returns remain healthy despite inflation.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen asked about the cost and margin variance across LP's OSB mill portfolio and how that informs downtime decisions. He also requested an update on the timing and economics of the Houlton Siding mill expansion project.

Answer

CEO Brad Southern explained that OSB downtime decisions are based more on delivered margin, which considers geographic location and transportation costs, rather than a simple ranking of mill production costs. Regarding the Houlton project, he stated that detailed engineering is ongoing to account for inflation, with more specific cost and return details expected in the next one or two quarters, noting the project's returns remain healthy.

Sean Steuart asked if LP's perspective on the return profile for the Houlton Siding expansion has changed, given a competitor cited cost inflation for delaying a project. He also inquired about how much of the capital for the Houlton project is already locked in.

Answer

CEO William Southern differentiated the investment decision, stating that Siding's stable margins and demand generation make it a top priority. He affirmed the Houlton project still offers a strong return above the cost of capital. CFO Alan J. Haughie added that while not all capital is locked in, it would take a significant change for them to alter their 'full steam ahead' approach to accelerating Siding capacity.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen inquired about LP's strategy for passing on potential tariffs for both OSB and Siding, and asked if 10% annual Siding sales growth is achievable in a more normalized housing market.

Answer

CEO William Southern explained that for OSB, tariffs would impact the entire industry cost curve, while for Siding, LP has supply chain flexibility. He affirmed that in a stronger housing and R&R market, growth above the guided 7-9% would be achievable through both higher volume and better pricing, making 10% growth feasible.

Sean Steuart asked for context on the available Siding expansion options, such as converting existing mills versus new builds, and posed a hypothetical question about the potential impact of a blanket U.S. tariff on Canadian imports.

Answer

CEO Brad Southern detailed the expansion options, including converting Canadian OSB mills, developing the Wawa site, or adding press lines to existing facilities. He noted the decision will be driven by capital efficiency, network optimization, and SKU mix needs. Regarding tariffs, he stated the primary risk is on MDI resin imported from China, not on Canadian panel flows, which have historically been tariff-free.

Sean Steuart of TD Cowen asked about the minimum liquidity level Mercer is comfortable maintaining, given the business's capital intensity. He also sought perspective on longer-term opportunities to reduce working capital as part of the company's broader cash management and cost-saving initiatives.

Answer

CFO Richard Short responded that the company is far from any uncomfortable liquidity level and has multiple levers it can pull, such as reducing maintenance CapEx if necessary. He added that working capital reduction initiatives, particularly around wood inventory, are ongoing and that the company is confident in hitting its 'One Goal 100' targets.

Sean Steuart from TD Cowen requested specifics on the $100 million cost savings program, including the cost buckets and timeline. He also asked about the pulp market's resilience in North America and Europe if the Chinese market weakens significantly in the latter half of the year.

Answer

Executive Juan Bueno detailed that the company-wide program targets operational efficiency and cost savings, with a focus on assets like Torgau and Peace River. He expects to realize $40-50 million in 2025, with the rest in 2026. Regarding market resilience, Bueno believes constrained softwood supply, rising fiber costs, and currency impacts will support prices. He also noted that U.S. tariffs on European pulp create a competitive opportunity for Mercer's Canadian pulp to shift sales to the U.S.

Sean Steuart of TD Securities inquired about the drivers behind pulp input cost trends, seeking a breakdown between Europe and Canada, and asked about the market conditions and potential for margin improvement in the European wood business.

Answer

Juan Bueno (Executive) explained that pulp fiber costs decreased about 5% in 2024 but are expected to rise in 2025, particularly in Germany (6% for pulp, 10% for lumber) due to reduced harvesting. He noted the company's Friesau sawmill is highly competitive and can navigate difficult markets, while the Torgau mill's resilience will improve as it increases lumber production to offset its current dependency on the weak pallet market. Bueno added that even with potential tariffs, European lumber would remain more competitive than Canadian lumber in the U.S. due to Canada's additional anti-dumping duties.

Sean Steuart asked about the company's deleveraging targets, questioning how they would be achieved given modest free cash flow prospects and inquiring about potential non-core asset sales. He also asked for management's view on the potential impact of a U.S. election outcome involving tariffs on European lumber and Canadian pulp shipments.

Answer

Juan Bueno, an executive, confirmed that debt reduction is a primary focus, supported by expectations of improved EBITDA from a strong softwood market. He noted the sale of Santanol is progressing and will provide cash. Richard Short, an executive, added that the long-term target is to reach approximately 2.5x net debt. Regarding potential tariffs, Bueno stated they have flexibility to shift lumber sales to other markets, such as the improving U.K. market, and that falling interest rates are expected to boost construction and lumber prices, mitigating potential tariff impacts.

Sean Steuart asked about ongoing regulatory investigations in Arkansas and New Hampshire, their relation to Missouri's billing issues, and their potential resolution timelines. He also requested an update on the potential divestiture of the Hydro portfolio.

Answer

CEO Roderick West confirmed the investigations relate to billing system deployment issues and acknowledged a shortfall in prior stakeholder engagement, committing to resolve the issues. Regarding the Hydro assets, West and CFO Brian Chin reiterated that a sale must be value-accretive and that while the leadership transition has slightly delayed the timeline, the core strategy remains unchanged.

Sean Steuart asked for more context on the focus areas for optimizing the utility platform beyond rate cases and inquired about the potential timeframe for achieving above-peer EPS growth.

Answer

Executive Chris Huskilson explained that the primary focus for optimization is on simplifying the service company structure and enhancing accountability by empowering utility presidents. Interim CFO Brian Chin addressed the growth question, stating that while no specific timeframe is set, the goal to reach a 60-70% dividend payout ratio in a few years remains, with potential for acceleration. He highlighted the unique opportunity for growth as an under-earning utility now singularly focused on its core business.

Sean Steuart from TD Securities asked for clarification on the basis for the new 60-70% dividend payout ratio and questioned the expected duration of the company's 'capital-light' investment approach.

Answer

CFO Darren Myers stated the target payout ratio is based on the regulated assets achieving their optimized earnings potential, which will be a multi-year journey due to rate case delays. CEO Chris Huskilson added that the capital-light approach will likely last for a 'few years' as the company prioritizes improving returns and operational discipline before increasing capital spending.