Selman Akyol

Selman Akyol asked about Spire's dividend growth strategy and payout ratios, particularly in the context of achieving the higher end of its growth range. He also sought clarification on the anticipated equity needs for Spire's overall 10-year capital outlook.

Answer

Adam Woodard, Executive Vice President and CFO of Spire, stated that the dividend is expected to grow in line with earnings, targeting a common payout ratio for utilities in the 55%-65% range. Scott Doyle, President and CEO of Spire, added that refreshed financing needs indicate a minimal annual equity requirement, in the $0-$50 million range, to support the utility capital expenditure program.

Selman Akyol of Stifel Financial Corp. commended Spire's O&M cost management and asked for the outlook on how that expense line is expected to evolve going forward.

Answer

President & CEO Scott Doyle stated that Spire's goal is to keep O&M growth at or below the rate of inflation. He highlighted that year-to-date O&M was up less than 1%. He also noted that while the current quarter's comparison was affected by one-time items, the overall cost management story remains positive.

Selman Akyol asked about the 2026 outlook, specifically customer hesitancy in the current environment and the impact of supply chain lead times on securing additional units. He also inquired about opportunities for margin improvement.

Answer

CEO Justin Jacobs stated that NGS is not seeing hesitancy from customers for 2026 and 2027, noting strong demand including for gas lift in the Permian. He acknowledged varying lead times for new unit fabrication, indicating that securing units for the second half of 2026 is feasible, but the first half would be challenging. Regarding margin improvement, he expects near-term margins to remain in the low 60s, with future mix shift to large horsepower potentially increasing them, but it's too early for specific guidance on business optimization.

Selman Akyol inquired about the 2026 outlook, specifically customer hesitancy in the current environment, and the impact of extended supply chain lead times for new units on NGS's ability to meet demand.

Answer

Justin Jacobs, CEO of Natural Gas Services Group Inc, stated that they are not observing hesitancy in customer activity for 2026 and 2027, attributing strong demand to a mix of market share gains and overall market strength. He noted that while new unit lead times are challenging for the first half of 2026, certain unit types could still meet demand in the second half.

Selman Akyol from Stifel Financial Corp. asked for elaboration on the company's claims of taking market share, the role of emissions performance in winning new business, how the 2026 outlook compares to the 2025 outlook at the same point last year, and current trends in leading-edge pricing.

Answer

CEO Justin Jacobs explained that market share gains are evident by comparing NGS's high growth CapEx relative to EBITDA against its larger public peers. He confirmed that the attractive emissions profile of their relatively new large horsepower fleet is a factor for customers. Jacobs noted it was difficult to compare the 2026 outlook to 2025's due to specific large orders in the past, and stated that pricing expectations are seeing modest increases, more in line with historical inflation norms.

Tim, on behalf of Selman Akyol at Stifel, asked if crude oil volatility might encourage smaller compression providers to enter the market and if producer CapEx cuts could drive more outsourcing. He also requested an update on equipment lead times.

Answer

CEO Justin Jacobs clarified that crude prices affect large and medium horsepower, while natural gas prices drive the small horsepower segment, where he sees positive 'green shoots'. He noted that customer CapEx cuts are not impacting NGS and that the focus on productivity is a tailwind. On lead times, Jacobs reported no change from the prior quarter, with engines at 6-8 months and fabrication at 9-12 months.

Tyler, on behalf of Selman Akyol from Stifel, asked if revenue per horsepower was beginning to flatten and questioned the geographic focus of potential M&A, specifically asking if it was Permian-centric.

Answer

CEO Justin Jacobs confirmed that the rate of price increases per horsepower is flattening, though a slight upward bias remains. Regarding M&A, he clarified that potential opportunities are not specific to any single geography like the Permian Basin but are a broader market trend.

Selman Akyol asked about the reason for the sequential decline in customer count, the percentage of 2025 CapEx allocated to electric units, the 2025 funding strategy, and the oil price levels that might alter customer behavior.

Answer

CEO Justin Jacobs characterized the customer count decline as minor and not part of a deliberate strategy. He stated that approximately 40% of new horsepower being added from H2 2024 through 2025 will be electric motor driven. For 2025, Jacobs expects leverage to increase on an absolute basis to fund growth CapEx. He also noted that while existing production is resilient, a drop in WTI to the low $60s could begin to affect customer decisions on drilling new wells.

Selman Akyol (with Tim speaking on his behalf) asked for an update on lead times for equipment, specifically if there have been any changes. He also inquired about real-time changes in customer behavior in a lower crude environment, such as shifts towards more outsourced opportunities or deferrals in aftermarket services costs.

Answer

Brad Childers (President and CEO) stated that lead times for Caterpillar engines remain around 60 weeks, an increase from approximately 42 weeks six months prior, with some limited shorter-term availability. Regarding customer behavior, Childers noted no major shifts in capital allocation or aftermarket services activity, which remains robust due to high industry utilization. He mentioned a seasonal slowdown in order activity as customers prepare 2026 budgets but no macro-level changes.

Selman Akyol of Stifel Financial Corp. sought clarification on the 2026 order book, asking if it was ahead of the prior year's pace, and requested more detail on activity in the Haynesville shale.

Answer

President & CEO D. Bradley Childers clarified that the 2026 order book is in line with prior years but with greater clarity, prompting the early guidance of a $250 million CapEx minimum to underscore confidence in future growth. Regarding the Haynesville, he stated that Archrock supports some of the largest midstream operators there and is seeing incremental, profitable demand, which provides welcome diversification from the Permian.

Selman Akyol from Stifel Financial Corp. sought clarification on the 2026 order book, asking if the company is ahead in securing orders for 2026 compared to the same point last year for 2025. He also requested more detail on activity levels and Archrock's position in the Haynesville shale.

Answer

President & CEO D. Bradley Childers clarified the 2026 guidance is for a minimum of $250 million in CapEx. He stated that while the order book is in line with prior years, there is greater clarity, prompting the early guidance to reinforce their confidence in future growth. In the Haynesville, Childers noted that Archrock supports some of the largest midstream operators and is seeing constructive, profitable demand for new horsepower, though the scale of activity is smaller than in the Permian.

Selman Akyol sought clarification on the 2026 CapEx guidance, asking if the order book is ahead of last year's pace. He also requested more detail on the activity Archrock is seeing in the Haynesville shale.

Answer

President & CEO D. Bradley Childers clarified the guidance is for a minimum of $250 million in 2026 CapEx. He stated the order book is in line with prior years but has more clarity, prompting the early guidance to underscore confidence in future growth despite market concerns. Regarding the Haynesville, he confirmed seeing incremental demand and profitable horsepower additions with some of the play's largest midstream operators, providing welcome diversification from the Permian.

Selman Akyol inquired if Archrock was seeing increased activity in basins outside the Permian and asked for an update on the demand for electric compression units.

Answer

President and CEO D. Childers responded that while there are increased bookings in other plays, it is additive to, not at the expense of, the Permian, which still accounts for 70-80% of new bookings. He stated that electric compression demand remains steady, accounting for about 30% of the newbuild budget, with the main constraint being the availability of power infrastructure.

Selman Akyol of Stifel inquired if there is a pricing power difference between gas-driven and electric motor compression units and sought clarification on the typical duration of the 'longer-term contracts' Archrock is securing.

Answer

President and CEO Brad Childers explained that Archrock does not see a significant pricing difference between gas and electric units, as both compete well on a returns basis. Regarding contract terms, he clarified that while the company seeks longer terms for new capital deployment, the overall portfolio includes various durations, and core stability comes from long-standing master service agreements with key customers.

Selman Akyol of Stifel asked for perspective on the current stage of the market expansion and whether reconfiguring compression with electric motors would lead to continued improvements in margins and contract duration.

Answer

President and CEO D. Childers characterized the market as being in the "early innings" of a long-term expansion driven by sustained demand from LNG, AI, and data centers. He affirmed his ambition for continued margin expansion, supported by platform investments, telemetry, the growing scale of the fleet, and the increasing mix of electric motor drive units.

Selman Akyol of Stifel Financial Corp inquired about quantifying the impact of adverse weather, the progress of the company's site rationalization program, the drivers behind cents-per-gallon (CPG) strength, and the current M&A outlook for terminals and retail.

Answer

CFO Gregory Hanson explained that while the weather impact was material, it was difficult to quantify precisely. He noted the site rationalization is nearly complete and the portfolio is in a strong position. Hanson also clarified that CPG strength was due to normalized market conditions rather than specific supply advantages. President & CEO Eric Slifka added that M&A bid-ask spreads remain wide for terminals, but the retail market is still active.

Selman Akyol inquired about Global Partners' strategy for portfolio optimization, specifically the balance between retail site divestitures and terminal acquisitions. He also asked about the favorable market conditions driving the Wholesale segment's strong performance and the impact of any market dislocations, such as tariffs.

Answer

President and CEO Eric Slifka clarified that the company's strategy is opportunistic, focusing on deals that offer a competitive advantage rather than a direct repositioning of capital from retail to terminals. CFO Gregory Hanson attributed the Wholesale segment's success to a colder winter boosting distillate demand and the successful integration of newly acquired terminal assets. Executive Mark Romaine added that while tariff-related volatility was brief and minimal, the company is monitoring potential impacts on consumer spending.

Selman Akyol of Stifel inquired about the potential impact of import tariffs on M&A strategy, the company's growth plans for its Houston assets, and the current M&A environment, including deal flow and pricing.

Answer

President and CEO Eric Slifka stated that potential tariffs do not alter their M&A strategy, viewing their system's flexibility as a competitive advantage that highlights their business model. Executive Mark Romaine detailed growth plans in Houston across retail, terminals, and wholesale businesses, noting opportunities for both organic growth and acquisitions. Mr. Slifka also described the current M&A market as very active, with asset quality driving valuation, and expressed hope for completing deals in the coming year.

Selman Akyol of Stifel Financial Corp. inquired about Global Partners' strategic plans for its new East Providence terminal acreage, the M&A outlook, progress on the Houston partnership, the potential scale of its EV charger deployment, and the sustainability of recent high fuel margins.

Answer

President and CEO Eric Slifka highlighted the strategic real estate potential of the East Providence terminal and affirmed a disciplined M&A strategy amid high valuations. He also described a cautious, partnership-focused approach to the EV charger rollout. CFO Gregory Hanson attributed strong fuel margins to price volatility and industry consolidation, suggesting a structurally higher floor for margins going forward.

Selman Akyol followed up on the new commercial opportunities, asking about the potential timing for these projects to manifest in financial results, particularly looking toward 2026.

Answer

SVP & COO Curtis Dinan explained that opportunities exist on both near-term and long-term timelines. Some projects can be served quickly with minimal capital, while larger builds will take longer. President, CEO & Director Robert McAnally added that the company's strong organic growth allows it to be selective and strategic about which large-scale projects to pursue, ensuring they align with long-term system build-out plans.

Selman Akyol from Stifel Financial Corp. inquired about the timeline for new growth opportunities, such as data centers, to materialize in financial results, asking if they are expected to contribute by 2026.

Answer

SVP & COO Curtis Dinan explained that the timeline varies; some opportunities are near-term where system capacity exists, while others are longer-term projects requiring new infrastructure. President & CEO Robert McAnally added that the company's strong organic growth allows it to be selective and strategically pursue large-scale projects that align with long-term system needs.

Speaking on behalf of Selman Akyol, Tim from Stifel asked about the location of the midstream infrastructure acquired in the XTO deal. He also inquired about the higher saltwater disposal costs mentioned in Q1, asking if this was a one-off issue or a broader trend.

Answer

Executive Tom Ward clarified the acquired midstream assets are minor and located in Oklahoma's Ringwood field and the Hugoton Basin. Executive Kevin White explained that the higher saltwater disposal costs were specific to drilling in the Anadarko Basin, where the company relies on third-party infrastructure, in contrast to its Oswego area where it owns the infrastructure.

An analyst on behalf of Selman Akyol asked if the company can elect to leave more liquids in the gas stream across its entire footprint and what the expected cadence for LOE per BOE would be in 2025.

Answer

CEO Tom Ward confirmed that the election to adjust the production stream can be made across their entire asset base and that the resulting production mix stays within their guidance range. He also stated that LOE (Lease Operating Expense) per BOE is expected to be 'basically flat' in 2025.

Selman Akyol from Stifel asked for clarification on what costs are included in the 25-30% potential capital spending reduction and requested any metrics or economic details on the planned iodine facility.

Answer

CFO Stephan Tompsett explained that the potential capital reduction is dynamic and would depend on customer activity, but it could include spending on new pipelines, well connects, ponds, and surface facilities. President and CEO Amanda Brock stated that the iodine project will be on a royalty basis dependent on production volume. She noted they will provide more information next quarter after their partner finalizes the facility's size.

Selman Akyol of Stifel asked for an outlook on 2025 capital expenditures following the "investment year" of 2024 and inquired about the pipeline for continued acquisitions in the water utility segment.

Answer

CFO Raymond Kaszuba indicated that 2025 CapEx would likely be "pretty close to 2024 or maybe a little bit lower," while reaffirming the company's long-term 4% to 6% EPS growth target. CEO David Anderson and executive Justin Palfreyman confirmed a "fairly robust pipeline" of smaller, tuck-in water acquisition opportunities around their expanding service territories.

Tyler Rakers, on behalf of Selman Akyol, asked about the CapEx outlook for the Puttman Water acquisition, the company's strategic focus on Turquoise Hydrogen versus other forms, and the sensitivity of future earnings to warmer weather.

Answer

Executive Justin Palfreyman detailed that the Puttman acquisition includes long-term CapEx for growth in partially developed communities. CEO David Anderson clarified that the company supports all forms of hydrogen, with the Turquoise pilot being unique for its decentralized potential. Regarding weather, Justin Palfreyman and David Anderson explained that while Q1 and Q4 are most sensitive, over 80% of the load is covered by weather normalization, making the overall impact minor.

Selman Akyol of Stifel inquired about the operational status and timeline for the ELSA project, the potential for securing term contracts in the marine transportation segment, any lingering impacts from the recent bridge and pipeline incidents, the extent of Hurricane Barrel's impact, and the outlook for refinery turnarounds in the upcoming quarter.

Answer

COO Randall Tauscher confirmed the ELSA project is on schedule, with processing and testing to begin in mid-August. He stated that all marine contracts are currently on term, with some extending into early 2025. Regarding the incidents, Tauscher noted the bridge allision is in maintenance mode while the pipeline spill requires longer remediation, but CEO Robert Bondurant added the full financial impact has been accrued via insurance deductibles. Tauscher described Hurricane Barrel's physical damage as nonmaterial but acknowledged a week of lost operations, while refinery sulfur production was unaffected. He concluded that refinery turnarounds are typical for late Q3/early Q4, but the company has no specific knowledge of impacts at this time.

Selman Akyol asked for details on the number of barges scheduled for dry dock, whether the ELSA joint venture is in discussions with other customers, the timeline for JV revenue, the potential for new transportation contracts, and the reasons for the high Q1 turnaround expenses.

Answer

COO Randall Tauscher explained that 2024 is a heavy dry-dock year, with most work completed by the end of Q2. Regarding the ELSA JV, he confirmed that Samsung, as the marketer, is in discussions with other parties, and significant sales are now expected in H2 2025, with a reservation fee to begin no later than October 2024. Tauscher described the transportation market as stable with no major growth initiatives planned. He attributed the high turnaround costs to a heavy maintenance year, inflation, and specific projects including a refinery turnaround.

Asked for details on the marine dry-docking schedule, potential new customers for the ELSA joint venture and its timeline, the outlook for new transportation contracts, and the reasons for the high turnaround expenses.

Answer

Executives confirmed it's a heavy dry-docking year with most work completed by the end of Q2. The ELSA JV has other potential customers, but significant sales are delayed until H2 2025, though a reservation fee will start in Q4 2024. The transportation market is stable with no major growth initiatives planned. The high turnaround expense is due to a heavy, front-loaded schedule of major projects including the refinery, Plainview facility, and marine fleet, compounded by inflation.

Asked for clarification on the ELSA project's reservation fee structure and potential for expansion. He also inquired about the contracting strategy and rate trends in the marine transportation business, and the use of free cash flow for debt reduction and its impact on the leverage ratio.

Answer

Executives confirmed the ELSA reservation fee is a steady quarterly payment with no catch-up mechanism, and while expansion is possible, no formal talks are underway. In marine transportation, they are using short-term (3-6 month) contracts for inland tows, with rates expected to increase upon renewal, which is factored into guidance. Free cash flow will continue to pay down debt, with the year-end leverage target expected to be met despite potential quarterly fluctuations.