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    Seth Seifman

    Vice President and Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    Seth Seifman is a Vice President and Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Securities LLC, specializing in the aerospace, defense, and industrials sectors. He covers major companies such as Boeing, TransDigm Group, Howmet Aerospace, ATI, Mercury Systems, Booz Allen Hamilton, and OSI Systems, and is recognized for a strong performance track record, with an overall average return of 46.2% and a Smart Score of 84.6%, placing him in the 93rd percentile among analysts for investment returns. Seifman began his career after earning his undergraduate degree from Yale University in 1997 and joined JPMorgan Securities in 2006, where he has remained for nearly two decades. He holds the CFA designation and maintains applicable FINRA securities licenses as an equity research professional.

    Seth Seifman's questions to OSI SYSTEMS (OSIS) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to OSI SYSTEMS (OSIS) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Rocco, on behalf of Seth Seifman, asked about the expected timing of cash flow in fiscal 2026, questioning if it would be front-loaded due to Mexico payments. He also sought to identify the specific contracts or geographies driving the strong double-digit revenue growth when excluding the Mexico business.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Alan Edrick stated that while he couldn't provide quarterly guidance, he expects operating cash flow to be strong throughout fiscal 2026, in both the first and second halves. CEO A. J. Mera attributed the robust ex-Mexico growth to broad-based international demand in aviation and cargo, solid domestic performance, and a strong future pipeline fueled by both international markets and new US government funding for agencies like CBP.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to OSI SYSTEMS (OSIS) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if the proposed $1.1 billion in homeland security funding is entirely additive and if it creates new opportunities for AI solutions. He also inquired about the potential for receivables reduction in Q4 and the specific revenue contribution from the RF acquisition.

    Answer

    President & CEO Ajay Mehra confirmed the $1.1 billion is on top of the baseline budget and presents multi-year opportunities for equipment, integration, and AI solutions like their CertScan software. Executive President & CFO Alan Edrick noted a significant opportunity to improve working capital and free cash flow by reducing receivables over the next six months. He also disclosed that the RF acquisition contributed $29 million in revenue for the quarter.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to StandardAero (SARO) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to StandardAero (SARO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman inquired about the revenue cadence for the Engine Services segment for the remainder of the year and asked for quantification of the margin dilution from new programs like LEAP and CFM56.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Russell Ford confirmed the second-half outlook remains strong, driven by the CF34 program. He explained that while new program ramps are dilutive, the company's overall margin still expanded by 80 basis points, indicating significant underlying strength in core programs. Ford noted that the new programs are on track to reach profitability late in the current year or early next year as losses narrow.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to StandardAero (SARO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about StandardAero's confidence in the CF34 platform's growth despite some airlines signaling slower capacity, and also inquired about the current M&A environment and the company's appetite for deals.

    Answer

    CEO Russell Ford stated that engine MRO is non-discretionary and historically not impacted by short-term volatility in passenger traffic, as airlines cut other discretionary spending first. Chief Strategy Officer Alex Trapp added that the company has ample balance sheet capacity and free cash flow to pursue a robust pipeline of attractive M&A targets.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to StandardAero (SARO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman inquired about the primary drivers for the strong low double-digit to mid-teens growth forecast in commercial aerospace and asked for clarification on the working capital assumptions within the 2025 cash flow guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Russell Ford explained that robust growth is anticipated across several key platforms, with the CF34 and turboprop segments showing strong performance and the CFM56 expected to be the largest revenue growth driver in 2025. CFO Dan Satterfield added that while there will be an incremental working capital build to support growth, particularly for the LEAP and CFM56 programs, it is expected to remain around 25% of revenue going forward.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to StandardAero (SARO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman inquired about the expected performance of the new LEAP and CFM56 programs over the next few years, the current contracting environment, and how to interpret additional MRO investments by GE and Safran in relation to StandardAero's workshare. He also asked for the cash flow expectation for the fourth quarter.

    Answer

    CEO Russell Ford explained that the outlook for the CFM56 program is robust, justifying the Dallas-Fort Worth facility expansion. He views OEM investment in the LEAP MRO network as a positive indicator of long-term demand. CFO Dan Satterfield added that Q4 cash flow is expected to improve sequentially as significant one-time costs from the IPO and acquisitions will not recur.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to MERCURY SYSTEMS (MRCY) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to MERCURY SYSTEMS (MRCY) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked if the 31% gross margin seen in Q4 is sustainable and whether the low Q4 operating expense levels are an appropriate run rate for fiscal 2026.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO David Farnsworth stated that while gross margins are expected to increase over the long term, quarterly fluctuations are possible. CEO William Ballhaus added that current OpEx levels are in the 'right ZIP code' for the near term, providing a solid foundation for future operating leverage as the company scales.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to MERCURY SYSTEMS (MRCY) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Rocco, on behalf of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co., questioned if the sequential revenue decline in Q3 was caused by the previously announced pull-forward into Q2 and if this acceleration also explains the implied flat revenue growth for Q4.

    Answer

    CEO Will Ballhaus confirmed that the sequential revenue decline was influenced by a significant pull-forward of approximately $30 million from Q3 into Q2, driven by a focus on accelerating customer deliveries. He affirmed that this timing shift is consistent with their prior expectations and is the reason for the implied flat year-over-year revenue in Q4, with the full-year outlook remaining unchanged.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to MERCURY SYSTEMS (MRCY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked for clarification on the 'above market' growth target, including the definition of the market, and questioned the role the Common Processing Architecture (CPA) will play in achieving this growth.

    Answer

    CEO Bill Ballhaus defined the target market as the Tier 3 defense electronics market, which historically grows at 5-6%, and noted Mercury is focused on faster-growing subsegments like processing at the edge. He explained that the CPA contributes to growth by unlocking follow-on bookings, enabling new revenue-generating deliveries, and freeing up capacity to burn down unbilled receivables, which converts prior work into cash.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to MERCURY SYSTEMS (MRCY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the expected revenue mix from common processing architecture (CPA) programs once at full production and questioned the sustainability of the lower SG&A expenses observed in the quarter.

    Answer

    Executive David Farnsworth clarified that while CPA is a significant contributor, no single program accounts for 10% of revenue, and he declined to provide a specific future mix percentage. Regarding SG&A, Farnsworth acknowledged historical cyclicality but stated the company expects operating leverage to improve through the second half of the year.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS (KTOS) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS (KTOS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the source of the KGS segment's outperformance, the allocation of the full-year revenue guidance increase, and the strategic plan for capital allocation following the recent debt paydown.

    Answer

    CEO Eric DeMarco could not comment on the specific hypersonic mission driving KGS results, while CFO Deanna Lund confirmed the revenue guidance increase was primarily in KGS. Mr. DeMarco detailed the capital allocation strategy, which involves investing in new facilities for major program wins like Poseidon, Anaconda, and Helios, positioning the company for significant cash flow generation starting in the 2027-2028 timeframe.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS (KTOS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the revenue and profitability drivers for the MACH-TB contract and sought guidance on modeling future investment levels and cash flow beyond 2025, given the significant planned capital expenditures.

    Answer

    CEO Eric DeMarco explained that MACH-TB is an aerial test contract with a significant revenue ramp expected in 2026 and beyond, following initial work on long-lead items in 2025. CFO Deanna Lund clarified that while most 2025 facility investments are non-recurring, the Prometheus JV investment will be a major factor in 2026, along with the completion of the new turbojet facility.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS (KTOS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested an update on the Prometheus program, asked if it was factored into the 2025 forecast, and inquired about the primary end-markets for the company's planned large-scale turbine production.

    Answer

    CEO Eric DeMarco described progress on Prometheus as being on the 'five yard line,' anticipating a major announcement soon and calling it a potential top catalyst for Kratos. He clarified that Prometheus is factored at 'zero' in the company's forecasts, representing pure upside. The primary destination for the high-volume turbine production, he explained, will be new, low-cost cruise missile programs that emphasize affordable mass.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to CACI INTERNATIONAL INC /DE/ (CACI) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to CACI INTERNATIONAL INC /DE/ (CACI) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the expected cadence of revenue and organic growth in FY26, noting an apparent acceleration in the second half. He also inquired about opportunities or risks related to the Army's Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) initiative.

    Answer

    CFO Jeffrey MacLauchlan confirmed the expected growth acceleration, attributing it to the continued ramp-up of major programs like Focus Fox, Beagle, and ITAS, as well as the anniversary of recent acquisitions. Regarding NGC2, President and CEO John Mengucci acknowledged it as a highly competitive area and stated that CACI is evaluating its strategy but supports the Army's modernization goals.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to CACI INTERNATIONAL INC /DE/ (CACI) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked how the government's focus on software-defined capabilities changes CACI's relationship with hardware providers and inquired about the difference between gross and net bookings in the quarter.

    Answer

    CEO John Mengucci explained that the software focus fosters supportive partnerships, not fractures, as CACI provides software for platforms built by hardware providers, citing examples in optical communications and the Spectral program. He stressed that software offers the speed and agility required to counter evolving threats. CFO Jeff MacLauchlan clarified that the difference in bookings was due to a program ending in early January and using less of its ceiling than anticipated, an event unrelated to the current environment.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to CACI INTERNATIONAL INC /DE/ (CACI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    An associate on behalf of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about CACI's confidence in growing in competitive areas like communications and Counter-UAS, and whether its 6% of revenue from other federal civilian customers is at risk.

    Answer

    CEO John Mengucci expressed high confidence, citing CACI's deep mission understanding and software-defined approach as key differentiators against new entrants. CFO Jeffrey MacLauchlan clarified that the risk within the 6% civilian revenue varies, with work for agencies like NASA and the Department of Justice likely being more insulated from potential cuts.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Voyager Technologies, Inc./DE (VOYG) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to Voyager Technologies, Inc./DE (VOYG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the progress and upcoming milestones for the signals intelligence (SIGINT) and ISR business, including the partnership with Palantir, and whether the NGI CDR success would lead to content on other interceptors.

    Answer

    CEO Dylan Taylor confirmed the ISR business is growing robustly, supported by a software-focused M&A pipeline and the 'Vista' edge computing initiative with Palantir and NVIDIA. He also highlighted the recent LEO Cloud acquisition to bolster space-based cloud services. Taylor affirmed with a definitive 'Yes' that passing the NGI critical design review gives the company high confidence that its technology will be specified for additional missile defense programs.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Leidos Holdings (LDOS) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to Leidos Holdings (LDOS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested clarification on the size of Leidos's scanning business and the scale and timing of opportunities related to non-intrusive border and TSA equipment funded by the reconciliation bill.

    Answer

    CEO Thomas Bell outlined billions in addressable markets, including $2-3 billion in non-intrusive inspection and border surveillance. He emphasized that Leidos has field-ready products that are resonating with the Department of Homeland Security. CFO Chris Cage specified that the integrated security, detection, and automation (SES) business, which includes ports and borders, is on the order of a $600 million business.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Leidos Holdings (LDOS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the challenge of achieving profitable growth with the North Star 2030 strategy, given the emergence of new, low-cost-of-capital competitors focused on rapid growth.

    Answer

    CEO Thomas Bell stated that Leidos is aware of and often partners with new entrants. He emphasized that the company's growth pillars are intentionally focused on areas where Leidos has existing and accelerating differentiation. He expressed confidence in their ability to leverage these current capabilities to stay ahead of the pack.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Howmet Aerospace (HWM) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to Howmet Aerospace (HWM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the contribution of the F-35 program to the defense business and the company's outlook for the program, given concerns about future production rates.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant highlighted two positive volume drivers for the F-35. First, the spares business for engine products has reached a tipping point, now exceeding OE production volume, a trend expected to continue as the fleet grows. Second, destocking in the structures business (bulkheads) has ended, with orders now matching Lockheed's production rate. Plant expressed optimism for solid F-35 production rates of 150 per year through the end of the decade.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Howmet Aerospace (HWM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked how much slowing air traffic growth matters to Howmet's outlook, given the strong OEM backlogs and spares demand.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant acknowledged that while end-market travel demand is important for long-term planning ('26-'27), Howmet is protected for a significant period by high aircraft backlogs, the need for more fuel-efficient planes, and strength in defense and IGT. He noted the uncertainty is a reason to further strengthen the balance sheet.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Howmet Aerospace (HWM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked how management views the Engineered Structures business's place in the portfolio now that its margin performance is improving significantly.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant reiterated his view that the Structures business could achieve high-teens margins and expects to sustain its recent performance into 2025. He stated that strong performance earns the business the right to receive more capital investment. While he does not see it reaching the intrinsic margin levels of the Engine business, he affirmed it is a valuable contributor to the portfolio and there are no concerns about its place.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Howmet Aerospace (HWM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman sought to clarify whether strong aftermarket demand is primarily driven by new engines or by legacy fleets remaining in service longer.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant confirmed that both factors are significant drivers. He noted that shop visit peaks for legacy engines like the CFM56 have been pushed out to 2026-2027. Concurrently, new engines are creating substantial demand due to time-on-wing issues and a long-term trend of more frequent maintenance, creating a dual tailwind for the spares business.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES (HII) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES (HII) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for details on the timing and financial magnitude of the expected Virginia Block VI and Columbia Build II contract awards. He also questioned if recent wage increases were immediately factored into productivity assumptions for existing contracts.

    Answer

    President and CEO Christopher Kastner and EVP and CFO Thomas Stiehle confirmed they expect the awards in the second half of the year, and the guidance range already accounts for this timing. They noted the awards primarily affect cash flow and incentives this year, not margins. Kastner clarified that wage hikes are not immediately booked into estimates; the company must first see proven performance improvements.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES (HII) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the cash flow impact of the new Virginia-class contract and its inclusion in Q2 guidance. He also inquired about the strategic potential of the new partnership with Hyundai for accelerating U.S. shipbuilding.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Thomas Stiehle confirmed that the contract and its associated cash incentives were already factored into the Q2 and full-year free cash flow guidance. President and CEO Christopher Kastner described the Hyundai MOU as an early-stage, broad relationship to explore best practices, noting that collaboration with allies to expand capacity is logical but outcomes are not yet defined.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES (HII) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman sought clarification on which specific submarine contract awards are assumed in the 2025 guidance and questioned the basis for management's confidence that these awards would be secured within the year, particularly with a new administration.

    Answer

    President and CEO Christopher Kastner clarified that the guidance assumes the successful negotiation of the FY '24 two-boat contract, followed by the Block VI and Columbia build 2 contracts. He expressed high confidence in finalizing the FY '24 boats in the first half of the year, noting that while his interactions with the new administration are limited, he has been assured that shipbuilding is a top priority, which supports the expected progression to subsequent contract negotiations.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES (HII) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman inquired about the impact of increased outsourcing on financial returns and whether the 3-4% long-term shipbuilding growth target remains valid given the reduced capital expenditure plan.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Kastner confirmed that outsourcing will increase and that the associated cost premium is being factored into future contract negotiations. CFO Thomas Stiehle affirmed the 3-4% growth target is still appropriate, describing the CapEx reduction as a prudent short-term measure that does not change the strong long-term demand profile and value equation for HII.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to ATI (ATI) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to ATI (ATI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman inquired about the airframe outlook, specifically regarding wide-body inventory levels in the channel, and asked about ATI's capacity utilization for jet engines and its ability to increase volumes into 2026.

    Answer

    President & CEO Kimberly Fields acknowledged ongoing airframe inventory destocking but noted signs of demand returning in the second half for specific alloys. She highlighted that new long-term agreements position ATI for growth as build rates accelerate. Regarding capacity, both Fields and EVP & CFO Don Newman confirmed ATI is well-positioned to meet 2027 targets, citing discrete debottlenecking investments and a new nickel melting project expected to add 8-10% capacity next year with modest capital expenditure.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to ATI (ATI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the drivers of the 15-20% jet engine growth forecast and the outlook for titanium demand from widebody aircraft programs.

    Answer

    Kim Fields, President and CEO, attributed the jet engine growth to a mix of prior CapEx investments in downstream debottlenecking, improved upstream reliability, and productivity gains. Regarding widebodies, she noted demand is starting to build and highlighted that ATI's new titanium capacity in Oregon is coming online to support the ramp. She also announced a new 5-year, nearly $1 billion agreement with Airbus, positioning ATI as a leading flat-rolled supplier.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to ATI (ATI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman inquired about the specific product and market drivers for growth in 2025, particularly within titanium and engine products, and asked for the expected margin progression in the High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) segment.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kimberly Fields highlighted strong engine growth driven by MRO activity and the GTF program, with an expected 50% sales increase in 2025 for the latter. Executive Vice President and CFO Don Newman projected HPMC margins to start 2025 in the 20-21% range and ramp to over 23% later in the year, driven by higher volumes, better absorption, and favorable mix from jet engine demand.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to ATI (ATI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about demand trends for wide-body aircraft like the 787 and 777X, and whether the current market slowdown presents an opportunity to drive operational efficiencies.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kim Fields identified the 787 program as a 'bright spot' with increasing demand forecasts for 2025, while noting the 777X delay was disappointing but not substantially built into near-term forecasts. EVP and CFO Don Newman agreed that any pause in the production ramp is an opportunity to accelerate efficiency and yield improvements, but emphasized this would not slow progress toward their 2025 margin targets of 18-20%.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Leonardo DRS (DRS) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to Leonardo DRS (DRS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about specific opportunities in the electric power and propulsion business, particularly related to the Charleston facility, and asked about the bookings outlook for the second half of the year.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO William Lynn highlighted the Columbia program as the core, with the South Carolina facility enhancing efficiency. He identified steam turbine generators as a key opportunity to help the Navy increase submarine throughput. EVP & CFO Michael Dippold added that the Columbia portion of the facility will come online in late 2026 and that the company expects to exit the year with a higher backlog, anticipating a book-to-bill ratio above 1.0 for the full year.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Leonardo DRS (DRS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    On behalf of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co., an analyst asked for a high-level explanation of the expected margin expansion throughout the year and questioned DRS's potential to increase its role in current ship classes given new shipbuilding funding.

    Answer

    CFO Michael Dippold explained that margin expansion is expected as quarterly revenue increases, creating greater operational leverage over fixed G&A costs. CEO William Lynn confirmed significant opportunities in shipbuilding, citing the Columbia-class program, Navy investment for second-sourcing steam turbines, and discussions to support Virginia-class submarine throughput, all leveraging the Charleston facility.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Leonardo DRS (DRS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman questioned the drivers of the Q4 EBITDA margin forecast, whether the profitability step-up in the IMS segment is sustainable, and if the company is considering capital return options beyond M&A.

    Answer

    CFO Mike Dippold attributed the Q4 margin strength to volume leverage and a favorable mix, particularly the Columbia program moving to higher-priced shipsets. He confirmed this is an ongoing mix change, not a one-time event, supporting the path to 14% margins. CEO Bill Lynn stated that while M&A is the highest priority, the company will also consider other methods of returning cash to shareholders.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to BOEING (BA) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to BOEING (BA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the expected progression of Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) margins, considering program ramps and any impact from the MAX -7 and -10 certification delays.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Brian West stated that any margin impact from the certification delay is 'modest.' He reiterated that BCA margins are expected to be negative for the full year but should improve sequentially in each quarter of the second half. West added that while it's too early to characterize 2026, there is nothing to suggest the segment cannot return to historical margin levels long-term.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to BOEING (BA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman requested more detail on the cost impact of tariffs, asking to size the financial effects and understand the duty drawback process, as well as how Boeing is managing suppliers who may pass on tariff-related costs.

    Answer

    CEO Robert Ortberg described the duty drawback process for exported aircraft and noted efforts to help suppliers benefit from it, prioritizing supply continuity. CFO Brian West quantified the net annual impact of input tariffs as manageable at less than $500 million, citing pre-tariff inventory and hedging. He added that the potential China delivery impact, while over $1 billion, was contemplated in the company's conservative annual plan.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to BOEING (BA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the financial implications of winding down the 737 and 787 'shadow factories,' including the impact on cash flow and profitability, and the expected financial effects of the Spirit AeroSystems integration.

    Answer

    CFO Brian West explained that the shadow factories for the 787 and 737 are expected to close in early and mid-2025, respectively. While the costs are factored into the 2025 outlook, the primary financial benefit will be improved BCA margins in 2026 and beyond. He stated that the financial impact of the Spirit integration would not be detailed until the deal closes.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to BOEING (BA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the root cause of persistent charges in the defense business and for a definition of the 'normal production rates' Boeing aims to achieve by the end of next year.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kelly Ortberg acknowledged that while some defense contracts are tough, Boeing needs better discipline in risk management and execution on factors within its control. EVP and CFO Brian West clarified that achieving 'normal production rates' for the 737 means getting back on track to the pre-strike plan of 38 aircraft per month, after which the company will seek FAA approval for further increases.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ (LHX) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ (LHX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for an update on the Mission Networks business within the SAS segment, including its current size and future opportunities with the FAA.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Christopher Kubasik described the business as a roughly $1 billion portfolio with good margins, focused on its 'sweet spot' of telecommunications infrastructure, broadcast, and data services. He highlighted the recent Newark Airport upgrade as an example of future opportunities at thousands of sites, while clarifying L3Harris will not be a prime integrator for a new air traffic control system.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ (LHX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for an update on the Mission Networks business within the SAS segment, including its current size and future opportunities with the FAA.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Christopher Kubasik explained that the business, around $1 billion in revenue, is focused on telecommunications infrastructure upgrades for the FAA, such as the successful Newark Airport project. He noted dozens of similar opportunities exist and clarified L3Harris will focus on its telecom and data services niche, which has more upside now than a year ago, rather than prime a new air traffic control system.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ (LHX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about L3Harris's confidence in its European sales prospects, particularly for communications and radios, given geopolitical tensions and the presence of local European suppliers.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Kubasik expressed strong confidence, citing recent major orders like a $1.1 billion deal with the Netherlands. He emphasized that customers in Poland, Germany, and Eastern Europe prioritize the superior, proven technology, interoperability, and crypto capabilities of L3Harris's software-defined radios for their modernization programs, viewing it as more critical than politics, especially given the current sense of urgency.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ (LHX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman followed up on the space program charges, asking about their magnitude, the completion timeline for the troubled programs, and the level of remaining risk.

    Answer

    CFO Kenneth Bedingfield revealed that the company took approximately $100 million in negative EACs on a couple of classified space programs in 2024, which were largely offset by performance elsewhere. He expects the risk to be mostly resolved in 2025. CEO Christopher Kubasik added that these are legacy fixed-price development programs, some pre-merger, that are now in their final stages of completion.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ (LHX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the revenue cadence at Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR), seeking the source of confidence for the significant sequential step-up required in the fourth quarter to meet guidance.

    Answer

    CFO Kenneth Bedingfield explained that while revenue growth takes time as capacity investments are made, the benefits are starting to kick in. He noted that integration costs and legacy contracts created some near-term headwinds. However, the timing of supply chain cost flow-through in the fourth quarter provides confidence in achieving the full-year revenue guidance for the AR segment, reinforcing their positive long-term outlook.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to TEXTRON (TXT) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to TEXTRON (TXT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman from JPMorgan asked about the outlook for the Textron Systems segment following recent program changes and inquired if there was potential upside to the Industrial segment's performance.

    Answer

    Scott C. Donnelly, Chairman, CEO & President, acknowledged the surprise program terminations at Systems but noted that growth in other areas like the ship-to-shore connector and Sentinel programs should offset the impact this year. For the Industrial segment, he expressed confidence in the current performance, citing successful restructuring post-powersports disposition, but was not ready to revise guidance upwards.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to TEXTRON (TXT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked why Bell's Q4 performance came in below the raised guidance from Q3 and also inquired about the composition of Aviation orders, specifically the mix between NetJets and retail customers.

    Answer

    Scott Donnelly, Chairman and CEO, explained that Bell's Q4 results were affected by unfavorable program adjustments, specifically the exercise of a lower-margin, fixed-price option on the FLRAA program. Regarding Aviation orders, he stated that the mix between fleet and retail customers is generally stable over the course of a year, though some quarter-to-quarter variability can occur based on the timing of orders and deliveries.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to TEXTRON (TXT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman questioned the underlying Q3 Aviation margin, which appeared below guidance ex-strike, and asked about the margin outlook for Bell as the lower-margin FLRAA program ramps up.

    Answer

    CEO Scott Donnelly attributed the Q3 Aviation margin pressure to strike-related costs like idle facilities and lower volume against fixed overheads. For Bell, he stated the focus is on growing absolute profit dollars, with a strong commercial mix helping to offset the margin impact from the growing FLRAA program.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL DYNAMICS (GD) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL DYNAMICS (GD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the slowdown in Aerospace services during the first half, its underlying causes, and the implied second-half deceleration for the Technologies segment given its unchanged full-year guidance.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Phebe Novakovic addressed Aerospace services, noting that while the business grows with the fleet, quarterly margins are highly variable due to mix. For the Technologies segment, EVP Amy Gilliland cited a slower pace of contract awards impacting GDIT's second-half outlook. EVP Jason Aiken added that Mission Systems' H1 strength was partly from less predictable transactional business, warranting caution.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL DYNAMICS (GD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked if the strong Q1 margin in the Marine segment and potential new contracts reduce the margin risk profile for the year. He also asked about the interplay between Q1 share repurchases and potential interest expense from debt refinancing.

    Answer

    Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and CEO, acknowledged that stimulating productivity reduces risk but reiterated guidance for Marine margins to hover in the upper 6% range for the year. Kim Kuryea, CFO, clarified they are watching market rates for refinancing and expect slightly more interest expense for the year. Phebe Novakovic added that share repurchases were opportunistic as the stock was a good buy.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL DYNAMICS (GD) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the Aerospace segment's long-term delivery outlook and the path from the forecasted 150 units to the previously discussed 170. He also sought quantification of the extra costs impacting margins and inquired about the drivers of margin pressure in the Technologies segment.

    Answer

    Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and CEO, explained that the 2025 forecast of 150 deliveries is a prudent and conservative approach reflecting supply chain realities, but she remains confident in future margin expansion. For the Technologies segment, she attributed the year-on-year margin pressure to a business mix shift, with growth concentrated in the lower-margin GDIT business as it onboards new programs.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL DYNAMICS (GD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the future profitability trajectory for the Aerospace segment, considering the G700 delivery challenges and the upcoming G800 introduction. He also asked about the growth and margin outlook for Combat Systems, particularly after the 155mm shell facilitization phase.

    Answer

    CEO Phebe Novakovic stated that while supply chain issues still cause out-of-station work, she anticipates a 600-700 basis point gross margin improvement on the G700 over time and sees very strong future margins for the Aerospace group. For Combat Systems, she noted that facilitization is largely complete, and while Q4 growth will be flat due to acceleration in H1, the business is positioned for solid future growth supported by a strong backlog and demand environment.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ (NOC) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ (NOC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if the previous long-term outlook for B-21 and Sentinel as a percentage of company sales should be revised upward given new funding, and what the corresponding impact might be on the 2028 free cash flow target.

    Answer

    Chair, CEO & President Kathy Warden indicated that depending on the final agreement for the B-21 production ramp, the program could exceed 10% of total company revenue in the future, but it was too early to be definitive. She stated that while Sentinel is not expected to reach that level in the next few years, it could be revisited in the production phase. She noted that any updates to the long-term cash flow outlook would be provided once the business arrangements, including company investments and returns, are finalized.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ (NOC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked for a quantification of the B-21 charge, specifically the split between the process change and higher material costs, and whether the process change was solely driven by the need for higher production rate optionality.

    Answer

    CEO Kathy Warden stated that due to the program's classification, she could not quantify the split but confirmed the process change cost was larger than the material cost. She affirmed the change was made to reduce risk while scaling and to provide the government with optionality for future production rates.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ (NOC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked how the rise of defense start-ups and commercial technology influences Northrop's portfolio strategy and capital deployment, and also inquired about the long-term outlook for international sales.

    Answer

    CEO Kathy Warden stated that while Northrop embraces new entrants and often partners with them, it does not change the core strategy of technology differentiation, though it sharpens investment focus. She also noted that international sales are expected to see double-digit growth in 2025 and that this trend could continue for multiple years, driven by a strong backlog and pipeline for products like IBCS, E-2D, and Triton.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ (NOC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the durability of demand for missiles and munitions within the Defense Systems segment, given the significant industry investments in solid rocket motor capacity.

    Answer

    Chair, CEO and President Kathy Warden affirmed that demand is expected to be enduring for multiple years, driven by the need for the U.S. and its allies to replenish stockpiles donated to Ukraine. She confirmed Northrop Grumman is investing to triple its capacity and is confident that demand will support this expansion, though the company continues to monitor the market balance.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to RTX (RTX) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to RTX (RTX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan asked about the potential role RTX could play in the modernization of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) infrastructure, following recent reports and funding initiatives.

    Answer

    Christopher Calio, Chairman & CEO, described FAA modernization as a critical, bipartisan priority and a significant opportunity for RTX. He noted the $12.5 billion in recent funding as a 'good down payment' and highlighted RTX's strong market share in installed radars and tower automation systems. He also pointed to opportunities for the Collins Aerospace business in aircraft equipage for ground control systems.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to RTX (RTX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about recent order activity in the shorter-cycle areas of the Collins aftermarket and which parts of the business might be most exposed to a potential slowdown in air traffic.

    Answer

    CFO Neil Mitchill reported that Q1 order activity was strong and no major changes in customer behavior were seen in early April. He noted that while aftermarket demand remains robust, the company's guidance range is built to absorb some potential softening later in the year. CEO Christopher Calio added that RTX uses a bottoms-up analysis with airline customers to monitor buying patterns daily.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to RTX (RTX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the drivers of Collins Aerospace's aftermarket growth, particularly the effect of aircraft coming off warranty, and also requested the expected number of large engine deliveries for Pratt & Whitney in 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Neil Mitchill explained that as more recently delivered aircraft come off warranty, it creates a growing tailwind for the Collins aftermarket. He also noted the V2500 aftermarket remains robust. For Pratt & Whitney, he clarified that large commercial engine unit deliveries are expected to grow by about 14% in 2025, similar to the growth seen in 2024.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to RTX (RTX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. followed up on Collins Aerospace, asking for the key drivers behind the expected margin improvement in Q4, given the Q3 shortfall and reduced full-year guidance.

    Answer

    Executive Neil Mitchill detailed the Q3 margin headwinds, including 200 basis points from lower OE volume and unfavorable mix, and 100 basis points from higher R&D and a $35 million contract headwind in the interiors business. He explained that the Q4 margin is expected to increase by about 130 basis points due to mitigation actions addressing the temporary OE slowdown and the non-recurrence of the Q3 interiors contract charge.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL ELECTRIC (GE) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL ELECTRIC (GE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the margin trajectory from the implied lower second-half 2025 level to the higher 2028 target, seeking to understand the bridge between the two points.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Rahul Ghai advised against over-indexing on a single half due to the timing of R&D, corporate costs, and GE9X shipments, suggesting the full year is a better baseline. He noted strong momentum from supply chain improvements and a stable services growth algorithm (LEAP installed base growth, widebody work scopes, pricing) will drive performance into 2026 and beyond.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL ELECTRIC (GE) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the mechanics of duty drawbacks within the supply chain and how GE is managing its suppliers in light of tariffs.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO H. Culp stated that GE is focused on strengthening its supply base and is not reducing inventory, given the strong demand outlook. While suppliers on firm-fixed contracts bear the initial tariff burden, GE will work with them. CFO Rahul Ghai added that GE is actively sharing its knowledge on mitigation programs and will provide necessary documentation to help suppliers claim their own duty drawbacks.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL ELECTRIC (GE) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the impact of provisioning third-party MRO shops on spares growth and the long-term balance of internal versus external LEAP maintenance work.

    Answer

    CFO Rahul Ghai explained that while internal shops currently handle about 90% of LEAP visits, the external network is ramping up. In 2025, he expects about 15% of visits to be external. Over time, as this external volume grows, it will drive higher spare part sales and improve overall program margins. He also noted that margins on internal service contracts remain stable due to durability improvements.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to GENERAL ELECTRIC (GE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if lower-than-expected 2025 engine deliveries would result in smaller original equipment (OE) losses and whether LEAP aftermarket profitability is expected to improve next year.

    Answer

    Executive Rahul Ghai confirmed both points. He agreed that lower engine output should reduce engine losses, though other factors are at play. He also stated that LEAP aftermarket profitability is 'shaping up to be a lot better' than expected, driven by durability improvements and growing, high-margin spare part sales to the external MRO network. Executive H. Culp added that the delayed 777X ramp and higher-for-longer CFM56 utilization are also key factors for 2025.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to TransDigm Group (TDG) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to TransDigm Group (TDG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked how the volatile market environment is affecting M&A models and seller expectations. He also inquired about the primary risks to the commercial aftermarket growth forecast, particularly from potential airline capacity cuts.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kevin Stein noted the main change in the M&A environment is the willingness of others to pay "aggressive multiples," but TransDigm's disciplined approach remains unchanged. Regarding aftermarket risk, Stein stated that while they monitor headlines, their order book remains strong with no signs of a downturn, but they are prepared to react quickly on costs if conditions change.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to TransDigm Group (TDG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked if the strong Q1 aftermarket performance alters the outlook for the rest of the year and posed a hypothetical question about using pricing concessions to pay for an acquisition.

    Answer

    Co-COO Joel Reiss reiterated that the aftermarket is lumpy and they are maintaining their existing guidance despite the strong start. Regarding the hypothetical acquisition, CEO Kevin Stein stated that such a scenario has never occurred and is not their usual process, though they remain opportunistic in all dealings.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to LOCKHEED MARTIN (LMT) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to LOCKHEED MARTIN (LMT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the effectiveness of the Q4 charge in derisking the Aeronautics classified program, the potential for future charges, and the impact on the company's multiyear financial targets.

    Answer

    CFO Jesus Malave stated that the risk on the program has been 'significantly reduced' due to a comprehensive review, a conservative cost reset, and enhanced monitoring processes. He noted that the 2025 outlook of 4-5% growth is an improvement from the prior baseline, reflecting realized opportunities and growing confidence in operational throughput, which will inform the outlook for 2026 and beyond.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Science Applications International (SAIC) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to Science Applications International (SAIC) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman asked about the rationale for the continued prevalence of cost-plus contracts and whether the incoming administration transition poses a timing risk to achieving the 1.2 book-to-bill target.

    Answer

    CFO Prabu Natarajan and CEO Toni Townes-Whitley explained that shifting from cost-plus to fixed-price contracts is a core strategy, as it offers efficiency for the government and better returns for SAIC, citing past successes. Regarding timing risk, Toni Townes-Whitley expressed confidence in hitting the 1.2 book-to-bill target in H1 FY26, citing a significant backlog of submitted bids, $0.5 billion in awards under protest, and continued high submission volume as mitigating factors.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Science Applications International (SAIC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan asked about the drivers behind the high volume of submitted bids in the first half and the potential risks to the book-to-bill targets from factors like a Continuing Resolution (CR), the election, and contract protests.

    Answer

    CEO Toni Townes-Whitley attributed the increased bid velocity to the centralization of the business development function, which improved resource allocation and process efficiency. While on pace to exceed the $22B full-year submission target, she noted that some large Q4 bids could slip. CFO Prabu Natarajan addressed the risks, stating that the high volume of bids awaiting adjudication provides a buffer, so the movement of one or two awards would not have a material negative impact on their book-to-bill expectations.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to TRIUMPH GROUP (TGI) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to TRIUMPH GROUP (TGI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Asked for a go-forward outlook on the Interiors business's profitability and revenue, and for clarification on which aftermarket programs might be declining to offset the strong growth seen in others.

    Answer

    The Interiors business has been rightsized, and the Boeing settlement was significant. The full-year EBITDAP margin for Interiors is expected to be around 6%, returning to double digits in the long term. In the aftermarket, some end-of-life programs and a temporary pause on V-22 spares were down, but key growth drivers like the 787, 777, and NG are strong and expected to continue growing.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to TRIUMPH GROUP (TGI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Asked about potential destocking at Boeing, the impact of the Airbus rate ramp delay, and concerns over the V-22 grounding affecting defense results.

    Answer

    The company has adjusted its backlog for Boeing's MAX pushouts. The Airbus delay has a modest impact due to already robust rates. The V-22 grounding has caused some near-term softness in military results, but the long-term outlook for the platform remains strong.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to TRIUMPH GROUP (TGI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Sought clarification on the long-term Boeing production rate assumptions baked into the fiscal '26 plan and asked for the specific end-market growth rates (commercial OE, aftermarket, etc.) assumed in the fiscal '25 sales forecast.

    Answer

    The company has adopted conservative assumptions for Boeing rates, reducing expected revenue by about $70 million, and is waiting for official new schedules before providing more detail. They have confidence in Boeing's recovery plan. For fiscal '25, they did not provide specific end-market growth rates but highlighted that the overall trend is continued growth in the high-margin aftermarket business.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (SPR) leadership

    Seth Seifman's questions to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (SPR) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarity on the 737 delivery trajectory for 2024, questioning if the rate would be 31 per month plus the Q1 backlog, and how the excess fuselages would be delivered over time.

    Answer

    CEO Pat Shanahan explained that the production rate will remain a steady 31 aircraft per month for the year, with the existing inventory of undelivered fuselages acting as a 'buffer' or 'surge capacity' for when Boeing is ready to increase its rate. CFO Mark Suchinski added that Q2 cash deliveries would be consistent with Q1, with an increase in Q3 and Q4 to average approximately 31 per month for the full year.

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    Seth Seifman's questions to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (SPR) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Seth Seifman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarity on the 737 delivery trajectory for 2024, questioning how to reconcile the Q1 delivery shortfall with the stated production rate of 31 aircraft per month.

    Answer

    CEO Pat Shanahan explained that the inventory of undelivered fuselages serves as a 'buffer' or 'surge capacity' for when Boeing is ready to increase its rate to 38 per month. CFO Mark Suchinski added that Q2 cash deliveries will be consistent with Q1, with an increase in Q3 and Q4, aiming for a full-year average of approximately 31 deliveries per month.

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