Sherif El-Sabbahy

Sherif El-Sabbahy from Bank of America asked if the strong backlog has led to more favorable contract terms or increased project selectivity, and sought color on customer conversations regarding the long-term pipeline for large transmission projects.

Answer

President & CEO Duke Austin confirmed that Quanta's solutions-based approach and self-perform capabilities provide certainty, leading to longer-term, programmatic discussions with customers about work extending into 2026-2028. He noted that while the base business remains around 85%, larger programs are stacking up, with Limited Notices to Proceed (LNTPs) at record levels, indicating a robust, compounding build-out of large transmission is in its early stages.

Sherif El-Sabbahy asked how the underlying assumptions for the full-year guidance have changed, given that the initial outlook was based on a residential rebound and pricing momentum that now appear challenged.

Answer

CEO Bill Zarkalis explained that while they now expect residential softness to continue, this is being offset by accelerating strength in their infrastructure and commercial project order book. He reiterated that results were always expected to be second-half weighted due to easier weather-related comparisons from the prior year, giving them confidence to reaffirm the guidance.

Sherif El-Sabbahy from Bank of America questioned the EBITDA guidance, pointing out an implied 30% YoY decline for H&E in the second half seemed to contradict claims of revenue stabilization. He also asked about a significant increase in expenses at the Cinelese division.

Answer

SVP & CFO Mark Humphrey clarified that the EBITDA decline reflects nearly 100% negative flow-through from H&E's revenue drop during the ongoing business transition. For Cinelese, he explained the expense increase was driven by a non-cash impairment charge to fair value the assets, not a change in operational costs.

Sherif El-Sabbahy asked which of the free cash flow scenarios presented at Herc's Investor Day is most relevant to the current 2025 outlook.

Answer

CFO W. Humphrey indicated that the current outlook aligns with the 'more moderated rev growth scenario' from the Investor Day presentation. He also reiterated that the company expects to be a federal cash taxpayer in 2025 for the first time, which will impact free cash flow.

Sherif El-Sabbahy inquired about the outlook for EBITDA flow-through, particularly given the current pace of M&A. He also asked for the relative magnitude of the margin impact from M&A and greenfields versus the slowdown in local markets during the third quarter.

Answer

CFO W. Humphrey explained that while 2023 was a year of high flow-through, the current environment is different. He anticipates that Q4 2024 flow-through will be better than Q3 2024, partly due to an easier comparison. He did not quantify the specific margin impacts but noted that M&A currently constitutes a larger portion of revenue growth, which is dilutive to margins in the short term.

Sherif El-Sabbahy asked for the gross margin of the Non-union Electric segment excluding storm work to better understand the impact of fixed cost absorption. He also inquired about the typical seasonality of MSA renewals and historical Q1 backlog trends.

Answer

CFO Greg Izenstark clarified that storm work was not overly material, at about 10% of the segment's revenue, and that margin improvement was driven by higher crew counts and increased work hours. President and CEO Christian Brown added that MSA renewals are typically heaviest in Q4, with Q3 being the quietest period, and that the current year's bookings cadence reflects this pattern.

Sherif El-Sabbahy asked about the Q2 top-line outlook, questioning if the historical sequential volume decline in Q2 is expected this year. He also inquired about the expected cadence for delivery and installation revenue.

Answer

CFO Matthew Jacobsen clarified that they do not expect a sequential volume decline in Q2, as Q1 is typically the seasonal bottom and activity builds into Q2 and Q3, especially for modular units. He added that delivery and installation revenue should grow with this increased activity, potentially in the 10% range in the second quarter.

Sherif El-Sabbahy from BofA Securities asked whether WillScot expects its free cash flow margin to expand or remain consistent in 2025 compared to 2024.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Matt Jacobsen clarified that the free cash flow margin is expected to see a slight reduction in 2025. He attributed this to two key factors: a roughly $30 million increase in net CapEx at the midpoint of guidance and a $30 million increase in cash taxes as the company becomes a partial federal cash taxpayer.

Sherif El-Sabbahy asked about the drivers of margin expansion in the Americas on lower volumes and requested more detail on regional performance, particularly the 'lull' in North America.

Answer

CEO Shyam Kambeyanda attributed the margin strength to a combination of net pricing, EBX initiatives, and a favorable product mix shift toward equipment and gas control, all achieved while continuing growth investments. He described the North American market as being in a 'wait-and-see' mode, contrasting it with optimism and strength in Europe, India, and the Middle East.

Sherif El-Sabbahy from Bank of America questioned the demand cadence within the Tools Group during the quarter and asked whether the shift to quicker payback items was intensifying or if demand for those items was also weakening.

Answer

CEO Nicholas Pinchuk described the quarter's weakness as 'more uniform' rather than showing a specific negative trend. He explained that while specific quicker payback products were successful 'hits,' the overall 'underlying base' of demand dropped due to pervasive uncertainty. This drop in general demand 'outran' the progress made with the company's product pivot strategy.

Sherif El-Sabbahy inquired about the drivers behind the decline in financial services originations, asking whether it was primarily a function of product mix or if customers were financing a smaller portion of their overall purchases.

Answer

CEO Nicholas Pinchuk attributed the decline in originations principally to lower sales of big-ticket, longer-payback items like tool storage. He added that the strategic pivot to smaller hand tools and the introduction of the lower-priced APOLLO+ diagnostic tool, which are often paid for with cash or on shorter-term revolving accounts, also contributed to the reduction in extended credit originations.

Sherif El-Sabbahy requested a breakdown of the cost buckets contributing to the guided 80 basis points of margin expansion, given the 400 basis points of price realization.

Answer

G. Bohley, COO, CFO & Treasurer, provided a bridge, stating that the 400 bps of price adds about 250 bps to margin. This is offset by the negative impact of lower volume (decrementals on ~$100M of revenue) and cost increases from purchased components, which are driven by both raw materials and supplier value-add. He reiterated that engineering and SG&A are guided relatively flat, with manufacturing costs down year-over-year.

Sherif El-Sabbahy from Bank of America inquired about capital allocation, asking if the company's substantial cash position and low leverage are primarily reserved for the robust M&A pipeline or if there might be a shift in priorities.

Answer

CFO Nathan Ring affirmed that the company's capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. The primary focus is on disciplined capital use for maintaining assets (5-7% of revenue) and funding growth through both organic projects and acquisitions. He stated that spending on maintaining and growing the business is currently the best use of capital, implying no near-term shift to other returns.