Sherif Elmaghrabi

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked about the current state and future outlook (6-12 months) of the 'dark fleet' given the increasing lift of compliant barrels by India and China, potentially reducing work for non-compliant vessels. He also questioned how the contango in the futures curve, which provides a tailwind for Middle East to Asia cargoes, affects vessel demand.

Answer

CEO Lars Barstad noted an increasing number of first-generation sanctioned vessels sitting idle and discussed ongoing initiatives for licensed recycling of sanctioned ships. He emphasized that while sanctioned oil will likely find a home, Frontline focuses on the compliant market, where incremental barrels now come from compliant nations. Regarding contango, Mr. Barstad explained that while current contango is modest, a slight carry in the oil curve (e.g., 50 cents) can extend trade lanes and grease the trading system, even without leading to floating storage, which requires a steeper contango due to financing costs.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked about the current state and future outlook for the 'dark fleet' given increased compliant barrel lifting by India and China, potentially reducing work for non-compliant vessels. He also questioned how a contango in the oil futures curve, distinct from floating storage, might influence vessel demand.

Answer

CEO Lars Barstad noted an increase in idle first-generation sanctioned vessels and ongoing discussions for licensed recycling of these ships. He acknowledged the persistence of the parallel sanctioned oil industry but emphasized Frontline's focus on the compliant fleet, which is now receiving incremental barrels. Regarding contango, Mr. Barstad explained that while not currently present, a modest contango (e.g., $0.50) could extend trade lanes and 'grease' the trading system, even if insufficient for commercial floating storage, which requires a steeper contango due to high financing costs.

Sherif Elmaghrabi inquired about the recent quietness in Atlantic VLCC fixture activity and the drivers behind sequentially higher operating costs.

Answer

Executive Lars Barstad attributed the quiet Atlantic market to an 'ebb and flow' nature, including non-public fixtures, U.S. refinery runs, and Canadian exports, while noting strong flows from Brazil and Guyana. Executive Inger Klemp clarified that Q1 operating costs represent a normal 'going rate,' as the prior quarter benefited from $4.9 million in one-time rebates.

Sherif Elmaghrabi of BTIG asked about alternative capital deployment strategies, given Frontline's substantial cash position, an aging fleet, and potential scarcity in the sale and purchase market. He also questioned if U.S. sanctions on Chinese shipyards would constrain future newbuild ordering decisions.

Answer

Executive Lars Barstad stated that Frontline is currently not pursuing alternative capital deployment strategies and is holding off on newbuild orders. He cited high newbuild prices ($125M for a VLCC) and the need to see consistently higher market rates ($50k-$55k/day) to justify the investment, preferring to return capital to shareholders via dividends. Regarding Chinese shipyards, Barstad noted it was too early to determine the impact of potential sanctions, stating the company is in a 'sit and watch mode' until there is more clarity.

Sherif Elmaghrabi of BTIG asked for color on the sale and purchase market, noting softening asset values, and questioned what factors keep larger tankers in the dirty trade once they have switched back from carrying clean products.

Answer

Executive Lars Barstad attributed softer asset values to reduced appetite from the sanctioned trade and shrinking margins in that market, reinforcing Frontline's strategy of selling older vessels. He expressed confidence in modern asset values. Regarding trade switching, he clarified that the decision is purely economic; tankers move between clean and dirty trades based on which market offers better returns at a given time, and the interconnectivity depends on the relative strength of both markets.

Sherif Elmaghrabi questioned the status of "uncommitted" work at Jafurah, asking when Aramco might tender for it and what criteria they seek. He also probed NESR's future investment needs for the contract, specifically if additional rigs or equipment beyond current acquisitions would be required.

Answer

CEO Sherif Foda clarified that the committed Jafurah contract is fully awarded to NESR, while "uncommitted" work refers to a flexible portion where Aramco can invite other approved service companies. He stated that NESR has already purchased all necessary additional equipment, reflected in the 2025 CapEx of $140 million-$150 million, enabling an immediate start on November 1st. Foda indicated that while they would continue to add equipment as needed (e.g., for a fourth fleet or other services like well testing), the CapEx for 2026 is expected to remain similar to 2025, supporting 30%-40% revenue growth by leveraging external market weakness.

Sherif Elmaghrabi (BTIG) asked about the uncommitted work scope at Jafurah, including when Aramco might tender for it, what they are seeking, and NESR's additional investment requirements beyond current countercyclical builds.

Answer

CEO Sherif Foda clarified that the 'uncommitted' scope is already contracted with multiple approved service companies, allowing Aramco flexibility. He confirmed that NESR has already purchased necessary additional equipment, reflected in the 2025 CapEx, and will continue to invest to maintain professional execution, aiming for consistent CapEx in 2026 despite significant revenue growth.

Sherif Ehab Elmaghrabi with BTIG asked about the Fuel Line Pilot at INL, specifically its target online date and whether its selection for a GEWE program presents an immediate economic opportunity or if NRC approval is required for monetization.

Answer

CEO Jacob DeWitte explained that the Aurora INL plant, authorized under GEWE for initial build and operation, is intended to transition to an NRC license for commercial sales, though potential sales to the government under GEWE authorization exist. He noted that the Atomic Alchemy plant in Texas and the Pluto reactor are primarily focused on GEWE missions, with optionality for NRC conversion. Mr. DeWitte highlighted that GEWE-authorized facilities can provide 'products' to the Department of Energy, potentially enabling more GEWE-authorized plants, and emphasized the strong collaboration between NRC and GEWE.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG asked about the target online date for the Fuel Line Pilot at INL and whether there's an immediate economic opportunity from the GEWE program, or if NRC approval is needed to monetize it.

Answer

Jacob DeWitte, CEO of Oklo, clarified that the Aurora INL plant, authorized under GEWE, aims for initial operation and then conversion to an NRC license for commercial sales, though potential government sales under GEWE authorization are possible. He noted the Atomic Alchemy plant in Texas, also under GEWE, is primarily for GEWE missions, with optionality for NRC conversion. DeWitte emphasized that GEWE authorized facilities can support DOE use cases, potentially leading to more GEWE-authorized plants, and that NRC and GEWE collaboration will constructively inform future licensing.

Sherif Elmaghrabi of BTIG questioned if the partnership with Liberty Energy could enable earlier revenue recognition from gas-powered generation and asked for details on why Oklo's reactor design is uniquely capable of using down-blended fuel.

Answer

CFO R. Craig Bealmear confirmed that if Oklo participates in early power sales from gas generation, it could potentially lead to earlier revenue recognition. Co-Founder, CEO & Director Jacob Dewitte elaborated that Oklo's fast spectrum reactors can handle the isotopic impurities in down-blended uranium and are well-suited for plutonium-based fuels, providing a key strategic advantage while HALEU supply chains mature.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked about the delivery timeline for fuel under the Centrus MOU and the expected timeline for subsequent Combined License Applications (COLAs) for different reactor sizes.

Answer

CEO Jacob Dewitte clarified that the first plant's fuel is secured from the Department of Energy, while the Centrus MOU is for subsequent plants, with delivery timing dependent on customer offtake agreements. For future COLAs, he anticipates submitting additional applications in parallel with the first one and expects to have more under review within a year, with significant acceleration benefits for applications that follow.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked about the delivery timeline for fuel under the Centrus MOU and the potential for subsequent, accelerated Combined License Application (COLA) submissions for different reactor sizes.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Jacob Dewitte clarified that the first plant's fuel is already secured from the Department of Energy, and the Centrus MOU is for subsequent plants. He stated that the timing for commercial fuel procurement is being structured to align with customer offtake agreements. For subsequent COLAs, Dewitte anticipates having additional applications under review within a year, with significant acceleration benefits expected for those filed after the initial ones.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked if the recent softness in the inland market has created more strategic M&A opportunities, particularly for operators with weaker balance sheets. He also inquired about the coastal market's sensitivity to crude slate changes, similar to inland, and the current outlook for new build capacity and timing in the coastal segment.

Answer

David Grzebinski (President and CEO) noted that while the inland market is still generally good, dips can prompt some reevaluation by potential sellers, making M&A a possibility. He highlighted Kirby's strong balance sheet (1.2-1.3x net debt/EBITDA) and robust free cash flow, enabling share repurchases in the absence of acquisitions. Christian O’Neil (President and COO) clarified that the coastal market is less sensitive to crude slate, being more concentrated and stable, with no new capacity expected for 2-3 years due to constrained shipyard capacity focused on governmental projects.

Sherif Elmaghrabi inquired whether the recent softness in the inland market has created more strategic M&A opportunities due to competitors' balance sheet strength, and if the coastal market is sensitive to crude slate changes similar to the inland business.

Answer

David Grzebinski, Kirby's Chief Executive Officer, acknowledged that some competitors might have less robust balance sheets, potentially opening M&A opportunities, but noted that the inland market still offers good margins. He emphasized Kirby's strong balance sheet (1.2-1.3x net debt to EBITDA) and significant free cash flow, which is being used for share repurchases in the absence of acquisitions. Regarding the coastal market, David Grzebinski stated it is not as sensitive to crude slate as inland, being more concentrated and stable with no new capacity expected for 2-3 years due to constrained shipyard capacity.

Sherif Elmaghrabi of BTIG, LLC asked for confirmation that Q4 remains the most significant quarter for inland fleet contract renewals. He also inquired about the flexibility of Kirby's barge fleet to switch between carrying refined products and petrochemicals based on market demand.

Answer

CEO David W. Grzebinski confirmed that the contract renewal cadence is unchanged, with Q4 being the largest quarter, accounting for approximately 40% of renewals. President and COO Christian O'Neil explained that a large portion of the clean barge fleet is homogeneous and can flexibly switch between services after cleaning, while more specialized assets like black oil and pressurized barges are less interchangeable.

Sherif Elmaghrabi of BTIG asked about the potential for inland barges to operate beyond the typical 35-year lifespan and inquired about the longer-term growth opportunities in the natural gas power generation market.

Answer

CEO David W. Grzebinski explained that while barge lifespans are historically driven by customer vetting rules and economics, the average retirement age for a recent batch was 42 years, suggesting some flexibility. He also detailed the multifaceted growth in power generation, including stationary diesel, mobile backup power, and the rapidly growing natural gas generation segment, which serves various industrial needs.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG asked if Bloom Energy has any capital commitments or other costs associated with the Brookfield partnership's joint ventures, beyond the previously announced Fremont CapEx investments.

Answer

Maciej Kurzymski, Acting Principal Financial Officer of Bloom Energy, clarified that aside from very small, agreed-upon equity investments in current respective projects, there are no other capital commitments or costs for Bloom under the Brookfield joint ventures.

Sherif Elmaghrabi of BTIG, LLC asked if the newly clarified Investment Tax Credit (ITC) framework provides an opportunity for Bloom Energy to increase its pricing.

Answer

KR Sridhar, Founder, Chairman & CEO, clarified that the new ITC is a flat 30%, which is less than the 40-50% available under prior safe-harbored rules. Despite the lower subsidy, he expressed confidence in maintaining margins due to the company's ongoing cost reductions and the high price of grid electricity, which keeps their solution highly attractive.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked about the need for new gas infrastructure for large utility agreements and the associated timing. He also inquired about the 15-year duration of the Conagra contract and the typical lifespan of Bloom's Energy Servers.

Answer

K.R. Sridhar (Founder, Chairman, and CEO) explained that gas infrastructure needs are location-specific and typically align with the customer's own construction timeline. For long-term contracts like Conagra's, he noted that the system's life is extended by replacing the fuel cell 'hot box' (which currently lasts about 5 years) multiple times, ensuring customers receive technology upgrades over the contract's term.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked if growth in Asia beyond South Korea would be incremental or covered under the existing agreement with SK ecoplant. He also questioned if the Fremont factory expansion could be accelerated and what business triggers would prompt such a move.

Answer

CEO KR Sridhar clarified that Asian growth could occur through both channels: Bloom's direct sales efforts and deals brought by their partner SK. On capacity, he emphasized that Bloom is committed to not being a bottleneck for customers needing 'time to power' and has a clear strategy to ensure production capacity meets demand without specifying triggers for the Fremont expansion.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked if Asian market expansion beyond South Korea would be part of the SK ecoplant agreement and inquired about the potential triggers for accelerating the Fremont factory expansion.

Answer

CEO KR Sridhar confirmed that Asian expansion could occur both through Bloom's direct sales and via deals from their partner, SK ecoplant. Regarding capacity, he emphasized that Bloom is committed to meeting customer demand for rapid power deployment and has a clear plan to scale, ensuring production will not be a limiting factor.

Sherif Elmaghrabi of BTIG inquired about the energy server installation process and the risk of downstream bottlenecks, such as permitting, causing delays in project acceptance.

Answer

CEO K.R. Sridhar explained that while revenue recognition varies, the goal is rapid installation. He detailed that site prep and interconnections are typically ready before servers ship. The new platform-mounted "skids" have significantly shortened the process, though he acknowledged that permitting times can vary widely.

Sherif Elmaghrabi followed up on the potential to debottleneck the Gimi FLNG to boost production and asked about the economies of scale, specifically regarding CapEx per ton, when comparing a large Mark III unit to a smaller Mark I.

Answer

CEO Karl Fredrik Staubo detailed that debottlenecking the Gimi involves technical fine-tuning of equipment like air inlet chillers and turbo expanders, as well as optimizing the interaction with the FPSO to improve gas composition and temperature. Regarding economies of scale, he stated that while CapEx per ton is not significantly lower for a Mark III due to the cost savings of using a conversion vessel for the Mark I, there are substantial operating cost efficiencies due to similar manning requirements for a much larger output.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG requested an update on the FLNG agreement with NMPC in Nigeria and the likelihood of a project being sanctioned by year-end. He also asked about the land-based infrastructure requirements and timeline needed to support a second FLNG unit in Argentina.

Answer

CEO Karl Staubo stated that while Golar signed a development agreement with NMPC, it is unlikely a Nigerian project will be sanctioned by the end of 2024, though it remains a contender for a contract in 2025. For Argentina, he explained that a second FLNG would require a new, dedicated pipeline from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, as the Hilli will utilize the spare capacity in the existing network. He estimated a construction time of about two years for such a pipeline, which would need to be developed in tandem with the FLNG project.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG asked about the annual production capacity of NuScale's partner Doosan and what conditions would need to be met for NuScale to order long-lead items for an additional six modules within the year.

Answer

President & CEO John Hopkins responded that Doosan has the capacity to manufacture up to 20 modules per year. He highlighted that Doosan's advanced production is a significant marketing advantage, noting a recent, successful visit with a customer and a state government official to observe the manufacturing process firsthand.

Sherif Elmaghrabi inquired about the delivery timeline for modules to a U.S. plant after an order is booked and asked for details on the Phase 2 extension for the RoPower project in Romania.

Answer

CEO John Hopkins stated that a 2030 delivery is achievable if an order is signed soon, otherwise it could shift to 2031, crediting their proactive work on long-lead items. CFO Ramsey Hamady added that a signed contract would trigger immediate cash flow, with about 25% of module costs received in the first year. Hamady also explained the RoPower extension involves funding the next step of the FEED phase to support a final investment decision (FID) in late 2025 or early 2026.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG asked how OPEC's decision to unwind production cuts has impacted conversations with charterers and questioned the company's fleet renewal strategy, particularly regarding maintaining fleet size versus a case-by-case approach.

Answer

President & CEO Svein Moxnes Harfjeld responded that there is increased interest from customers in securing VLCC capacity, which he views as a bullish signal. On fleet renewal, he clarified that the primary focus is on creating shareholder value and maximizing earnings per share, not strictly maintaining fleet size. The recent sale of two vessels and acquisition of another was a strategic, value-driven decision.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG asked about the potential benefits for smaller tankers from OPEC+ unwinding production cuts and the company's strategy regarding the balance between crude and product tankers in its fleet.

Answer

SVP & Chief Commercial Officer Derek Solon explained that increased VLCC employment from OPEC+ production would reduce VLCC cannibalization of Suezmax and Aframax routes, benefiting smaller crude segments. President, CEO & Director Lois Zabrocky added that the company has modernized its MR fleet and is taking delivery of new LR1s, balancing its product carrier segment.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked if the recent OPEC+ production increase has impacted conversations with charterers and questioned the company's leverage target following significant deleveraging.

Answer

CEO Lois Zabrocky noted a slight lag in the market's reaction to OPEC+ news but anticipates increased liftings in the next quarter. CFO Jeffrey Pribor addressed leverage, stating the company is comfortable with its current sub-15% net loan-to-value, as this low level provides optionality for future growth investments.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked about charterer sentiment, specifically if they might relax vessel age requirements due to tight supply, and whether they are currently pushing for vessels to resume transits through the Red Sea.

Answer

CEO Lois Zabrocky suggested that while some charterers might show flexibility on vessel age 'on the margin' in a strong market, it would not be a wholesale change. Head of Ops William Nugent stated he is not aware of any pressure from charterers to resume Red Sea transits, as the market is awaiting sustained stability in the region.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG asked for catalysts that could drive higher ship recycling rates given the aging global fleet. He also questioned if there were any upcoming repurchase options on sale-leaseback vessels that could allow for accelerated deleveraging.

Answer

CEO Lois Zabrocky identified tightened sanctions on the 'dark fleet' as a potential catalyst for recycling, forcing aged vessels out of sanctioned trades. CFO Jeffrey Pribor confirmed there is a purchase option on a sale-leaseback vessel in late 2025 and others in 2026, which the company will evaluate on a case-by-case basis.

Sherif Elmaghrabi inquired about the recent ITC transfer for the Georgia plant, asking if other similar monetization opportunities exist and why the credit was taken only on the liquefier.

Answer

CFO Paul Middleton confirmed additional opportunities exist, including a similar ITC for the Louisiana plant's liquefier and $15-$20 million in ITCs from PPA assets. He explained that for the rest of the Georgia plant, the company opted to take the Production Tax Credit (PTC) instead, based on a cash benefit analysis that they perform for each project.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked about the potential speed of converting older power plants in Puerto Rico to natural gas and how the island-wide supply contract renewal process works long-term.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Wesley Edens responded that conversions can happen very quickly, as soon as regasification units are installed, noting several plants are already gas-ready. For the long-term contract, he revealed that the government has expressed interest in running an RFP for a new, longer-duration contract of 10-15 years or more to enhance energy security, with an update expected in the not-too-distant future.

Sherif Elmaghrabi of BTIG pointed to a potential bifurcation in the time charter market, with Capesize rates holding up better than smaller vessels, and asked for the reason. He also inquired about the expected ramp-up cadence for the major iron ore and bauxite projects highlighted in the presentation.

Answer

CEO John Wobensmith clarified that one-year time charter rates for Capesize vessels have indeed seen downward pressure, similar to other segments, due to low spot rates. Regarding the new projects, Wobensmith provided an "educated guess," expecting a slow start with symbolic shipments by late 2025, a real ramp-up beginning in the second half of 2026, and full run-rate production by early 2028. He also noted additional growth from Vale and West African bauxite.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG questioned if Genco would consider acquisitions outside of its core Ultramax and Capesize segments and asked for clarification on the time it takes for a newly acquired vessel to begin generating revenue.

Answer

Executive John Wobensmith stated that Genco will 'stick to our knitting,' focusing on its established Capesize and Ultramax commercial platforms and would not pursue one-off deals in other vessel classes. CFO Peter Allen explained that a new vessel, like the Genco Intrepid, begins generating revenue very promptly, typically within a few days of delivery after crew familiarization.

Sherif Elmaghrabi from Evercore ISI inquired about SFL's potential to engage in container ship sale and leasebacks and asked for an update on contracting prospects for the Hercules rig as it mobilizes to Norway.

Answer

CEO Ole Hjertaker explained that SFL has shifted its strategy away from purely financial sale-leasebacks towards long-term time charters with an operational platform, which they find more valuable for major clients. Regarding the Hercules rig, he confirmed it is moving to the North Sea and that SFL is actively exploring opportunities in both the North Sea and West Africa for the near term, noting a positive market outlook from the rig's operator, Odfjell.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked if there is an upper capacity limit for Chart's hydrogen liquefaction technology and about the medium-term margin trajectory for the Specialty segment as hydrogen's mix increases.

Answer

CEO Jillian Evanko stated there is technically no upper limit to their hydrogen liquefaction technology, mentioning they are working with a partner on a potential 300 tonne per day project. She expects the Specialty segment to maintain a strong growth and margin trajectory, with mature markets like mining providing stability while hydrogen, water, and carbon capture are expected to accelerate later in the decade.

Sherif Elmaghrabi asked about the revenue opportunity for a specific mid-scale LNG deal and whether the record Carbon Capture (CCS) orders were from large industrial-scale projects.

Answer

CEO Jillian Evanko quantified the combined Chart content for three known but unbooked Big LNG projects at approximately $1.5 billion. For CCS, she confirmed that project scales are getting larger across a broader range of end markets. These 'pragmatic, practical' projects drove record CCS orders for a second consecutive quarter, indicating growing traction.

Sherif Elmaghrabi requested details on the two Jefferson contracts that will contribute $20 million in EBITDA, including the remaining investment. He also asked about GE's role and any potential lead time for the Long Ridge power plant upgrade.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Nicholson detailed the two fully funded Jefferson contracts: an $8 million/year crude oil deal starting April 1 and a $12 million/year, 15-year ammonia contract starting July 1. Regarding Long Ridge, he clarified the power plant upgrade to 505 MW is a simple software change that can be done in a day post-regulatory approval, requiring no new hardware or operational involvement from GE.

Sherif El Maghraby inquired about how the startup of Nigeria's Dangote refinery has altered trade flows and its expected future impact. He also asked if the four new methanol-capable vessels are expected to run on methanol upon delivery and about the general availability of methanol bunkering.

Answer

EVP Commercial, Jens Christophersen, responded that the Dangote refinery has so far been a net positive, creating more trading activity. He sees potential for the refinery to export higher-spec products, benefiting the tanker market. Regarding the newbuilds, he clarified that the choice of fuel is up to the charterer, TotalEnergies, and that it is too early to comment on the broader availability of methanol bunker fuel.