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    Shuhei Nakamura

    Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs Japan

    Shuhei Nakamura is an Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs Japan, specializing in coverage of Japanese technology and electronics companies, with a particular focus on firms such as Advantest Corp., TOELY, and SCREEN Holdings. He has been actively involved in analyzing semiconductor and electronics companies, demonstrated by his participation in multiple earnings calls and publication of research on these companies. While specific quantitative performance metrics such as TipRanks rankings or investment returns are not publicly available, Nakamura is recognized among top analysts in the sector and is listed as a coverage analyst for major listed Japanese firms as of 2024. His professional credentials and licensure details are not publicly disclosed, and there is no evidence of prior experience at other firms; his tenure at Goldman Sachs Japan is established as of at least 2024.

    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to TOELY leadership

    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to TOELY leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Questioned why the full-year forecast was unchanged despite a strong Q3, implying a Q4 decline, and asked about the drivers for outperforming the WFE market and the expected contribution from new products like the cryo etcher.

    Answer

    The full-year forecast remains unchanged as there are no major factors forcing a revision. Outperformance is driven by AI-related demand in advanced logic, HBM, and packaging, where the company has a dominant share in key tools. New products like the cryo etcher will have a small contribution next fiscal year as they are currently in pilot lines, with mass production investment expected later.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to TOELY leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Requested an update on the development and evaluation progress of cryogenic etching for NAND, its competitive advantages, and whether the company's first-comer advantage is proving beneficial in customer negotiations.

    Answer

    Evaluation of the cryogenic etching tool is proceeding steadily with very good results at customer fabs, and the company is confident it can gain market share. While an official POR has not been won yet, they expect to win one for pilot lines starting next year. The company believes it has a first-comer advantage, strong technology, and environmental benefits (reduced global warming potential). They are confident about winning share in critical processes as customers increase the number of tiers in their devices.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to TOELY leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Inquired about the progress of PORs for cryogenic etching, the company's competitive position against rivals in this technology, and the competition related to dry resist for EUV lithography.

    Answer

    The executive stated that cryogenic etching will start around 2025 and reach volume sales in 2026, with evaluations for high-volume production currently underway. The technology offers significant advantages in etching depth, speed, and environmental impact for advanced NAND. Regarding dry resist, it's noted to be a small (5%) part of the market, and the company is focusing on a promising wet development process to prevent pattern collapse.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to TOELY leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Asked about the reasons for the record-high gross profit margin in Q3, the expected slight decline in Q4 despite sales growth, and the outlook for gross profit margin in the next fiscal year.

    Answer

    The record Q3 margin was attributed to a higher proportion of high-value-added products. The slight decline expected in Q4 is due to temporary strategic expenses, such as inventory discards. The company expects the gross profit margin to continue an increasing trend in the future as they win more PORs and focus on high-value products.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership

    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Shuhei Nakamura of Goldman Sachs inquired about the calendar year 2025 Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecast, asking for the reasons behind the stated 'increasing uncertainty,' the scenarios for the wide TAM range, and if visibility for the second half of 2025 has improved.

    Answer

    Makoto Nakahara, an executive in sales, attributed the uncertainty to geopolitical risks like Sino-U.S. tensions. He explained the broad TAM range reflects a dynamic market with next-generation devices launching in late 2025, making future complexity hard to predict. He also noted the CY'25 SoC TAM midpoint was revised up due to increased device volume and complexity, with better visibility in the first half of the year versus the second.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Shuhei Nakamura asked for the rationale behind the 'increasing uncertainty' for calendar year 2025, the scenarios underlying the wide TAM estimate range, and if visibility for the second half of 2025 has improved.

    Answer

    Makoto Nakahara, an executive from sales, attributed the uncertainty to fast-changing geopolitical risks, such as Sino-U.S. relations. He explained the wide TAM range for 2025 is due to the dynamic market and the difficulty in predicting the increased complexity from next-generation devices launching in late 2025. He confirmed visibility is better for the first half of 2025 than the second half.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Inquired about the drivers of the strong Q1 gross profit margin improvement and asked for an explanation for why the full-year guidance implies a slight margin decline in the second half of the year.

    Answer

    The company attributed the strong Q1 margin to two main factors: a significantly improved product mix toward high-margin, high-end HPC/AI SoC testers, and gradual profitability improvements in the HBM business. They expect the gross margin to decline slightly in the second half because memory tester sales, which have a different margin profile, are expected to increase as a proportion of total sales as production capacity for them ramps up.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Shuhei Nakamura from Goldman Sachs Japan asked about the drivers behind the strong Q1 gross profit margin improvement. He also questioned why the full-year gross margin forecast of 52% implies a potential margin decline in the second half of the year.

    Answer

    Executive Yasuo Mihashi attributed the Q1 margin strength to a significantly improved product mix, driven by booming demand for high-performance SoC testers for HPC and AI applications. He also noted gradual profitability improvements in HBM testers. He explained that the full-year margin forecast implies a slight second-half decline because memory tester sales, which have a different margin profile, are expected to increase as production capacity expands.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Inquired about the HBM tester business, asking about the change in demand outlook since November, the reasons for the upward sales revision (demand vs. supply capacity), and visibility into 2025.

    Answer

    HBM demand has increased significantly since late last year, exceeding previous forecasts. The sales revision is driven by this strong demand, although supply capacity remains a constraint and the company is working to improve it. The company has visibility for high demand through 2024 and expects it to roll over into 2025, with the market potentially growing 1.5x to 2x year-over-year.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Shuhei Nakamura from Goldman Sachs asked for clarification on the 'increasing uncertainty' cited for the CY 2025 TAM, the scenarios behind the wide forecast range, and the current visibility into the second half of 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Makoto Nakahara explained that the uncertainty stems from fast-changing geopolitical risks, such as Sino-U.S. tensions. The broad TAM range for 2025 reflects market dynamism, with the launch of next-generation devices and process node changes making future complexity difficult to predict. Nakahara noted that while the CY'25 SoC TAM midpoint has been raised, visibility remains higher for the first half of the year compared to the second half.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked for the company's market share outlook for the next fiscal year (FY24) compared to the current year's 55-60% level, and how the growth in generative AI applications might affect their share.

    Answer

    The company forecasts its market share will remain 'roughly flat' year-over-year. They feel they are very well-positioned in the high-performance compute (HPC) and AI segments with a leadership position among traditional customers, hyperscalers, and ASIC providers, and expect to do well as these applications grow in volume.

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