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    Shuhei Nakamura • Goldman Sachs Japan

    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to Advantest Corp (ATEYY) leadership

    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to Advantest Corp (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Shuhei Nakamura of Goldman Sachs inquired about the calendar year 2025 Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecast, asking for the reasons behind the stated 'increasing uncertainty,' the scenarios for the wide TAM range, and if visibility for the second half of 2025 has improved.

    Answer

    Makoto Nakahara, an executive in sales, attributed the uncertainty to geopolitical risks like Sino-U.S. tensions. He explained the broad TAM range reflects a dynamic market with next-generation devices launching in late 2025, making future complexity hard to predict. He also noted the CY'25 SoC TAM midpoint was revised up due to increased device volume and complexity, with better visibility in the first half of the year versus the second.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to Advantest Corp (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Shuhei Nakamura asked for the rationale behind the 'increasing uncertainty' for calendar year 2025, the scenarios underlying the wide TAM estimate range, and if visibility for the second half of 2025 has improved.

    Answer

    Makoto Nakahara, an executive from sales, attributed the uncertainty to fast-changing geopolitical risks, such as Sino-U.S. relations. He explained the wide TAM range for 2025 is due to the dynamic market and the difficulty in predicting the increased complexity from next-generation devices launching in late 2025. He confirmed visibility is better for the first half of 2025 than the second half.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to Advantest Corp (ATEYY) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Shuhei Nakamura from Goldman Sachs Japan asked about the drivers behind the strong Q1 gross profit margin improvement. He also questioned why the full-year gross margin forecast of 52% implies a potential margin decline in the second half of the year.

    Answer

    Executive Yasuo Mihashi attributed the Q1 margin strength to a significantly improved product mix, driven by booming demand for high-performance SoC testers for HPC and AI applications. He also noted gradual profitability improvements in HBM testers. He explained that the full-year margin forecast implies a slight second-half decline because memory tester sales, which have a different margin profile, are expected to increase as production capacity expands.

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    Shuhei Nakamura's questions to Advantest Corp (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Shuhei Nakamura from Goldman Sachs asked for clarification on the 'increasing uncertainty' cited for the CY 2025 TAM, the scenarios behind the wide forecast range, and the current visibility into the second half of 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Makoto Nakahara explained that the uncertainty stems from fast-changing geopolitical risks, such as Sino-U.S. tensions. The broad TAM range for 2025 reflects market dynamism, with the launch of next-generation devices and process node changes making future complexity difficult to predict. Nakahara noted that while the CY'25 SoC TAM midpoint has been raised, visibility remains higher for the first half of the year compared to the second half.

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