Simon Clinch

Simon Clinch from Rothschild & Co Redburn challenged the notion that portfolio trading (PT) only thrives in low-volatility environments, noting its continued growth through volatile periods, and asked if PT could become a larger part of the market than previously thought.

Answer

CEO Christopher Concannon acknowledged that while PT is typically easier to price in low-volatility, clients have increasingly used it during volatile times to move large notional sums, especially in high yield. He affirmed PT is an important market share driver but reiterated that the overall revenue opportunity remains relatively small due to very low fee rates, estimating it at around $50 million in U.S. IG.

Simon Clinch asked about the relationship between fee per million and duration, wanting to know what macro conditions could cause duration to fall below recent lows.

Answer

CFO Ilene Bieler explained that calling a bottom is difficult as duration is driven by trading behavior tied to central bank policy and rate expectations. She noted that as rate cut expectations get pushed out, traders shorten duration, which negatively impacts fee capture. She reiterated the sensitivity, with a one-year change in duration worth about $15 in high-grade fee per million. CEO Christopher Concannon added that clients are focused on functionality and execution quality, and fees are not a primary competitive tool.

Simon Clinch inquired about the specific assumptions built into FICO's FY2026 guidance regarding the direct licensing model, including the cadence throughout the year and sensitivity to the mix of historical versus performance-based pricing models.

Answer

CFO Steve Weber explained that the guidance is conservative due to macro uncertainties and timing complexities, especially with the performance model's potential payment lag. He noted that the mix of models chosen by customers is still unknown, and more information will be available in a couple of quarters.

Simon Clinch inquired about the assumptions built into the guidance for the direct licensing model, its cadence throughout the year, and its sensitivity to the mix of historic versus performance pricing models.

Answer

CFO Steve Weber explained that FICO's guidance is conservative due to macro uncertainties and the timing complexities of the performance model, where payment might spill into the next fiscal year. He noted that the mix of models is still unknown, and more information will be available in a couple of quarters.

Simon Clinch from Rothschild & Co Redburn inquired about FICO's approach to engaging with regulators and whether the company might increase pricing more in non-mortgage categories if mortgage pricing growth slows.

Answer

CEO Will Lansing explained that FICO maintains close relationships with the FHFA and GSEs and expects significant industry input on recent proposals. Regarding pricing, he stated that FICO reviews its entire portfolio annually and that this comprehensive approach to identifying growth opportunities remains unchanged.

Simon Clinch sought clarification on the Q4 2025 guidance, specifically if it implies continued model conservatism despite signs of UMI improvement, and whether refinancing credit card debt remains the primary driver for personal loan demand.

Answer

Sanjay Datta, CFO of Upstart, confirmed that Q4 guidance assumes some lag in model response to UMI improvements, meaning the Q3 model impact will extend into Q4. He also stated that refinancing debt continues to be the dominant use case for personal loans, though they are broadly useful for many purposes.

Simon Clinch inquired about the implied Q4 application volume and conversion rate, questioning if model conservatism would persist despite signs of UMI improvement, and also asked if personal loan demand was still primarily driven by credit card debt refinancing or broadening to other use cases.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta confirmed that Q4 would still be impacted by the UMI rise from Q3, despite recent subsiding, due to Upstart's conservative approach. Sanjay Datta also noted that credit card debt refinancing remains the dominant use case for personal loans, but they are broadly useful and can compete with secured loans for various purposes.

Simon Clinch from Rothschild & Co Redburn requested a breakdown of the factors driving the significant outperformance in contribution margin and asked about the underlying macro assumptions in the company's guidance.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta attributed the stronger contribution margin to a favorable mix shift towards core loans, improved take rates, and unit cost efficiencies from Model 22. He stated the guidance assumes a stable macro environment, with the UMI remaining in the 1.4-1.5 range, steady interest rates, and a resilient labor market.

Simon Clinch asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the significant contribution margin beat and questioned the macro assumptions embedded in the company's forward guidance.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta attributed the margin outperformance to a favorable loan mix, improved take rates, and unit cost efficiencies driven by Model 22. He stated the guidance conservatively assumes a stable macro environment, with the UMI remaining in the 1.4-1.5 range, steady interest rates, and a resilient labor market.

Simon Alistair Clinch of Redburn Atlantic asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind strong borrower demand and questioned how the company is planning for various macroeconomic scenarios, such as potential rate changes, within its annual guidance.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta attributed the demand growth roughly equally to model accuracy improvements and macro factors like a subsiding UMI and prior rate cuts. He explained their guidance assumes a stable macro environment, relying on the platform's resilience and quick model adjustments rather than predicting future economic shifts. CEO David Girouard added that default index changes have a much larger impact than interest rate movements.

Simon Clinch of Redburn Atlantic questioned the modest increase in conversion rates given the significant impact of 'Model 18' and asked if the historical 'optimal' conversion rate of 22% is still a relevant benchmark.

Answer

CEO Dave Girouard explained that conversion rate gains are often reinvested into growth initiatives like marketing, preventing the metric from rising indefinitely. CFO Sanjay Datta added that the metric is now more complex in a multi-product environment, as shifting a borrower to a higher-value loan doesn't increase the conversion count but improves economics.

Simon Clinch asked about BrokerTec Chicago, its strategy to change BrokerTec's fortunes in U.S. Treasuries, and its competitive impact on different trading protocols like club versus streaming.

Answer

Mike Dennis, Global Head of Fixed Income, reported that BrokerTec Chicago, launched October 6th, had a successful start with over $1 billion notional traded and 25+ firms connected. He noted that 66% of volume traded at price points not available on BrokerTec New York, attracting new clients. Terry Duffy, Chairman and CEO, emphasized that dealer demand was a key driver for co-locating cash fixed income with futures, which is expected to grow the cash and futures franchises.

Simon Clinch asked about BrokerTec Chicago, its strategy to change the fortunes of BrokerTec in U.S. Treasuries, and its competitive implications for different trading protocols.

Answer

Mike Dennis, Global Head of Fixed Income, CME Group, reported that BrokerTec Chicago, launched on October 6th, had a successful market open with over $1 billion notional traded and 25+ firms connected. He noted that 66% of volume traded at price points not available on BrokerTec New York, attracting new clients. Terry Duffy, Chairman and CEO, CME Group, emphasized that dealer demand was a key driver for co-locating cash fixed income with futures and options, which is expected to attract more participants and grow both cash and futures franchises.

Simon Clinch from Rothschild & Co Redburn asked about the size of CME's retail trader base and their activity patterns, specifically whether new traders are active immediately or if there is a maturation period.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Terrence Duffy explained that it's a gradual process, emphasizing the importance of education for client longevity rather than immediate high activity. Chief Commercial Officer Julie Winkler added that new traders are increasingly sophisticated and that CME focuses on client retention and cross-selling them into new products over time, helping them mature from micro equities to other asset classes like crypto and metals.

Simon Clinch of Rothschild & Co Redburn asked about the size of CME's retail trader base and the typical activity pattern of new traders, questioning if they are active immediately or mature over time.

Answer

Terrence Duffy (Chairman & CEO) and Julie Winkler (Chief Commercial Officer) responded. Duffy emphasized that traders evolve and that education is key to ensuring longevity rather than immediate high activity. Winkler added that modern retail traders are more sophisticated and that CME focuses on retention by educating them and cross-selling into new products over time, helping them mature along their trading journey.

Simon Clinch of Redburn Atlantic asked for details on the strong expense control in the quarter, the expected expense ramp through the year, and a breakout of the spending related to the Google partnership.

Answer

Lynne Fitzpatrick, CFO, attributed the strong result to expense discipline but expects costs to ramp up. She cited growing technology spend on the Google Cloud migration, a likely increase in professional fees tied to projects, and typical Q4 marketing spend. She noted the Google spend in Q1 was just under $20 million.

Simon Clinch asked about the funding aspect of discussions with states regarding expanding their use of Twin to improve SNAP error rates, and whether OB3 covers these increased expenditures. He also inquired about the impact of trigger leads on mortgage inquiry volumes and the anticipated effects of new legislation coming in March.

Answer

Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer, clarified that OB3 generally does not cover these costs directly, but states must view it as an ROI. He explained that Twin delivers caseworker productivity (reducing adjudication time) and helps states avoid paying billions in increased SNAP benefits if error rates exceed the 6% threshold, creating a strong incentive for investment. John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer, stated that the impact of trigger leads on Equifax's volumes is relatively small. He noted that while there could be a shift from pre-qual/pre-approval towards hard inquiry transactions, the overall effect on Equifax is not significant.

Simon Clinch asked about the funding side of government discussions with states, specifically how states would fund expanded use of the Twin indicator to reduce SNAP error rates. He also inquired about the impact of trigger leads on inquiry volumes and the introduction of new legislation in March.

Answer

CEO Mark Begor explained that states gain productivity from instant verification and must weigh the cost of using Equifax's solution against potentially paying billions in SNAP benefits if error rates are not reduced, especially with new OB3 requirements. CFO John Gamble stated that trigger leads have a 'relatively small' impact on Equifax's volumes, and CEO Mark Begor added that there could be a shift from pre-qual/pre-approval to hard inquiry transactions.

Simon Clinch asked what alternative verification methods states are using amid budgetary headwinds and whether the new OBBBA bill expands the existing $5 billion TAM for the government business.

Answer

CEO Mark Begor explained that states may revert to using lagged and less complete state wage data but ultimately want to return to Twin for its accuracy and efficiency. He confirmed that the OBBBA bill does expand the $5 billion TAM, noting it's a great reminder to re-evaluate that figure, but emphasized the current TAM already represents a massive growth opportunity.

Simon Clinch of Rothschild & Co Redburn inquired about the potential scale of the growth opportunity in global natural gas markets as the TTF contract establishes itself as a global benchmark, asking for a comparison to Brent crude's market position.

Answer

President Benjamin Jackson highlighted significant long-term tailwinds for natural gas, driven by global energy demand and new trade agreements. He provided metrics for scale, noting that TTF has roughly half the active market participants of Brent and that its open interest is only about 15% of Henry Hub's, indicating a substantial runway for growth.

Simon Clinch of Rothschild & Co asked about the future growth potential of ICE's global gas markets, particularly as the TTF benchmark establishes itself globally, and how its scale might compare to Brent's role in the oil market.

Answer

President Benjamin Jackson described significant long-term tailwinds for natural gas, driven by geopolitical shifts, rising energy demand from data centers, and its inclusion in recent U.S. trade agreements. To illustrate the growth potential, he noted that TTF currently has about half the number of active market participants as Brent and its open interest is only about 15% of Henry Hub's, indicating substantial room for expansion.

Simon Clinch asked for an update on the $14 billion Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the Mortgage business and whether the company's thinking on its size has evolved.

Answer

President Benjamin Jackson confirmed that the company's view on the TAM has not changed. He stated the focus remains on executing against the revenue synergies from the Black Knight acquisition by leveraging the complete end-to-end platform to cross-sell services. He cited examples like selling MSP to Encompass clients (e.g., United Wholesale Mortgage) and cross-selling proprietary data across the network as key to realizing this opportunity.

Simon Clinch of Rothschild & Co Redburn requested more color on the dynamics within the Index business, focusing on the drivers behind the strong ETP flows and the perceived durability of this trend.

Answer

Chair & CEO Adena Friedman attributed the success to a focus on 'alpha' factors within their control, such as new product innovation (33 launched in Q2) and a three-pillar growth strategy targeting institutional adoption, international expansion, and new products. She noted record net inflows of $88 billion over the last twelve months were supported by a strong partnership approach with investment managers.

Simon Alistair Clinch asked about the resilience of Nasdaq's Index business, questioning how its current structural drivers differ from the 2022 market downturn.

Answer

CEO Adena Friedman explained that the Index business has become more resilient since 2022 due to a defined strategy of product diversification beyond the Nasdaq 100, international expansion, and institutional client growth. Friedman noted that 50% of Q1 inflows were into non-Nasdaq 100 products and highlighted multiple growth vectors, including new products, derivatives volumes, and data revenue, which provide stability even when market values fluctuate.

Simon Clinch of Redburn Atlantic asked about the long-term competitive environment in the core credit business, questioning if increased product bundling and innovation by all bureaus would change the intensity of competition.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Cartwright stated his perspective that the market is not zero-sum. He sees each bureau pursuing differentiated strategies to expand the services offered to clients, effectively growing the overall market by taking over work done internally by clients and gaining wallet share. He believes TransUnion is well-positioned to grow with and above the market due to its constant stream of proven, value-adding innovation.