Sohrab Movahedi

Sohrab Movahedi sought insight into the 2026 adjusted EPS growth target of 6-8%, asking which business segments are anticipated to exceed or fall below this target. He also requested clarification on the 'subject to market conditions' clause regarding share buybacks, specifically under what circumstances buybacks might not occur.

Answer

CEO Raymond Chun indicated strong momentum across all businesses, with positive tailwinds for EPS and ROE in 2026, particularly from fee-income and market-driven businesses. Group Head of Wholesale Banking Tim Wiggan highlighted record Q4 revenue and NIAT, with momentum carrying into the new fiscal year. Senior Executive Vice President of Wealth Management Paul Clark noted strong market share growth and improved efficiency. Group Head of Canadian Business Banking Barbara Hooper reported strong momentum from increased frontline bankers. CFO Kelvin Tran clarified that 'subject to market conditions' primarily refers to the pace of buybacks given market volatility and regulatory limits, rather than being price-sensitive.

Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets inquired about the scale of future investment required for the Wholesale Bank to reach its top-10 North American goal, and the associated expectations for RWA growth and ROE targets.

Answer

Tim Wiggan, Head of Wholesale Banking, explained that current expenses already reflect significant investments in platforms and risk controls, with FTE levels not expected to grow materially. He pointed to the pre-Cowen ROE of 13% as a historical benchmark and emphasized that a key objective is managing RWA growth by deepening client relationships and reallocating capital effectively with the new platform.

Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets inquired about the scale of future investment needed for the Wholesale Bank to achieve its 'top 10' aspiration and the associated expectations for RWA growth and ROE targets.

Answer

Tim Wiggan, Group Head - Wholesale Banking, explained that major investments are already hitting the run rate and FTEs are not expected to grow materially. He pointed to the pre-Cowen ROE of 13% as a historical benchmark and emphasized that a key objective is managing the RWA denominator by deepening client relationships and reallocating capital effectively with the newly expanded platform.

Sohrab Movahedi of BMO Capital Markets asked for an earnings outlook for the U.S. Retail segment for the second half of the year and questioned where management expects to see credit deterioration given the complex economic environment.

Answer

Leo Salom, President and CEO of TD Bank AMCB, expressed a positive H2 outlook for U.S. Retail, citing NII tailwinds and moderating expense growth. Chief Risk Officer Ajai Bambawale stated that while deterioration could occur in both consumer and business lending, the bank's recent $500M reserve build was primarily focused on non-retail exposures sensitive to trade policy.

Sohrab Movahedi inquired about the potential growth capacity of the Wholesale Bank and the resources required for acceleration. He also asked if the current U.S. Retail quarterly expense run-rate fully incorporates all anticipated risk and control investments or if it is expected to rise further.

Answer

Riaz Ahmed, Group Head of Wholesale Banking, stated that while the business has significant room to grow, any acceleration will be balanced with risk considerations and infrastructure development. Leo Salom, President and CEO of TD Bank, America's most Convenient Bank, indicated that while he wouldn't provide specific guidance, he expects the bulk of related expenses to peak in early 2025 and that the focus remains on using productivity gains to fund these investments.

Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets asked if increased savings from the larger restructuring program would boost the bottom line and questioned if U.S. segment expenses were understated due to costs being booked in the Corporate segment.

Answer

CFO Kelvin Tran clarified that additional savings are a run-rate benefit for 2025, for which guidance is not yet provided. Leo Salom, President and CEO of TD Bank, AMCB, acknowledged that while transformational AML costs are in Corporate, the ongoing run-rate expenses will be held at the segment level and are factored into their forecasts for positive operating leverage.

Sohrab Movahedi referred to CIBC's capital waterfall on slide 13 and asked if there's a possibility that Risk-Weighted Asset (RWA) growth could exceed internal capital generation in the upcoming year.

Answer

Rob Sedran (CFO, CIBC) stated that this is not expected. He anticipates quarterly organic capital generation of around 10 basis points (earnings net of dividends at ~35 bps, RWA growth before credit migration at ~25 bps). He acknowledged elevated credit migration in the current quarter related to the housing market but still expects positive internal capital generation.

Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets asked if CIBC anticipates a scenario in the coming year where Risk-Weighted Asset (RWA) growth could exceed its internal capital generation.

Answer

Rob Sedran, CFO, stated that CIBC does not expect RWA growth to exceed internal capital generation. He outlined typical quarterly organic capital generation of around 10 basis points (earnings net of dividends at 35 bps minus RWA growth around 25 bps), noting that while there was elevated credit migration this quarter related to the housing market, positive internal capital generation is still anticipated.

Sohrab Movahedi of BMO Capital Markets inquired about CIBC's intention to complete its renewed Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) and whether this signals confidence in the bank's earnings trajectory.

Answer

Robert Sedran, Senior EVP, CFO & Enterprise Strategy, confirmed that CIBC expects to utilize the buyback program as a consistent part of its strategy, offering flexibility while prioritizing organic growth. He stated that strong performance in revenue, margins, client acquisition, and expense discipline, leading to a rising ROE, reinforces the management's conviction in the bank's earnings power and strategic direction.

In a follow-up, Sohrab Movahedi of BMO Capital Markets asked if the current allowance for credit losses at 77 basis points is considered the 'right level' or if it might require future adjustments.

Answer

Frank Guse, Senior EVP & Chief Risk Officer, stated that 77 basis points is the right level and represents prudent coverage based on all currently available information, though it is subject to reassessment each quarter.

Sohrab Movahedi asked for details on the margin dynamics between deposits and assets in the personal and business banking segment. In a follow-up, he questioned if the current allowance for credit losses at 77 basis points is considered the appropriate level.

Answer

Hratch Panossian, Head of Personal and Business Banking Canada, attributed margin strength to a strategic focus on profitable relationships, resulting in a favorable mix shift from GICs to demand deposits and investment sales. Frank Guse, Chief Risk Officer, confirmed that the 77 basis point allowance coverage is considered the 'right level' and a 'prudent' measure based on all currently available information.

Sohrab Movahedi of BMO Capital Markets asked about the margin dynamics between deposits and assets in the Canadian P&C business. In a follow-up, he questioned if the current allowance for credit losses at 77 basis points is the appropriate level.

Answer

Hratch Panossian, Head of Personal and Business Banking Canada, attributed margin strength to a strategic mix shift towards higher-margin demand deposits and away from GICs. Chief Risk Officer Frank Guse confirmed that the current 77 basis point allowance coverage is a 'prudent' and 'right level' based on all available information.

Sohrab Movahedi noted that U.S. segment earnings are flat compared to two years ago despite a significant increase in FTEs. He asked if this represents a stable earnings base, if FTE growth has plateaued, and when revenue benefits from the buildout will materialize.

Answer

Shawn Beber, head of the U.S. Region, positioned the current earnings as a 'good starting point' for future growth. He explained that about half the expense growth funds growth initiatives expected to pay off in coming quarters. While investment will continue, he does not expect the same pace of expense growth going forward, and the FTE build is intended to drive future revenue.

Sohrab Movahedi questioned if RBC's ROE target improvement from 16%+ to 17%+ was solely due to reducing the targeted CET1 ratio from 14% to 13%. He also sought clarification on RBC's risk appetite, asking if the bank can achieve accelerated growth for a 17% ROE or slow growth for an 18% ROE within the same risk parameters. In a follow-up, he asked for a reasonable RWA growth outlook for the bank in totality for the next year.

Answer

Katherine Gibson, CFO, clarified that the ROE MTO change is not dependent on altering the CET1 outlook, as RBC had paths to both 16%+ and 17%+ without lowering CET1. Dave McKay, President and CEO, emphasized that the goal is total shareholder return, balancing ROE with EPS growth, and that the 17%+ target optimizes value. Mr. McKay affirmed that RBC is not changing its risk appetite, which is focused on return on risk and consistent earnings volatility. The ROE toggle relates to marginal decisions on deals and balancing growth opportunities, not altering the quantum of risk. Ms. Gibson guided RWA growth to align with loan growth: low to mid-single digits for mortgages, mid to high for commercial, and moderate for wholesale, confirming no reason for RWA growth to exceed loan growth.

Sohrab Movahedi asked if RBC's increased ROE target was solely due to a reduced CT1 target. He also inquired if RBC's risk appetite was changing to achieve higher ROEs and if the growth/ROE toggle primarily resided in the Capital Markets business. Finally, he sought guidance on a reasonable RWA growth for the bank in the next year.

Answer

Katherine Gibson, CFO, clarified that the ROE target change is not dependent on altering the CT1 outlook, emphasizing ongoing confidence and a prudent operating range of 12.5%-13.5%. Dave McKay, President and CEO, affirmed no change in risk appetite, stating the focus is on return on risk and optimizing shareholder value through a balance of growth and ROE. He confirmed that the growth/ROE toggle applies to Capital Markets and U.S. Commercial Banking. Katherine Gibson guided RWA growth to align with loan growth projections: low to mid-single digits for mortgages, mid to high for commercial, and moderate for wholesale.

Sohrab Movahedi asked whether the bank's strong performance and confidence would make it willing to pursue an inorganic growth opportunity, despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Answer

President & CEO David McKay confirmed his confidence in the bank's organic growth momentum, especially with management's full focus after the HSBC integration. While RBC remains open to strategic M&A, particularly in U.S. and European wealth management, he stressed that any deal would face a very high bar, given the opportunity cost of distracting from the highly successful organic strategy.

Sohrab Movahedi asked for details on the specific industry sectors targeted by the reserve build in the commercial bank and questioned the timeline for the Commercial Banking segment to achieve its 18% ROE target.

Answer

Chief Risk Officer Graeme Hepworth identified sectors like industrial, manufacturing, and transportation as being targeted due to supply chain and tariff impacts. Group Head of Commercial Banking, Sean Amato-Gauci, reiterated that the 18% ROE is a three-year target, with current results impacted by the reserve build and HSBC acquisition goodwill.

Asked which commercial banking sectors were most affected by the credit reserve build and questioned the timeline for the commercial segment to achieve its 18% ROE target.

Answer

The reserve build targeted sectors like supply chain, manufacturing, and transportation that are sensitive to trade uncertainty. The 18% ROE target for the commercial bank is a three-year goal, with current performance impacted by the reserve build and HSBC acquisition goodwill.

Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets inquired about the specific industry sectors targeted by the performing loan reserve build in the commercial bank and asked for the expected timeline to achieve the segment's 18% ROE target.

Answer

Chief Risk Officer Graeme Hepworth identified supply chain, industrial, manufacturing, and transportation as key sectors. Sean Amato-Gauci, Group Head of Commercial Banking, reiterated that the 18% ROE is a three-year target, with current results impacted by the reserve build, capital changes, and HSBC-related goodwill.

Sohrab Movahedi sought to reconcile the cautious macroeconomic commentary with the bank's strong business momentum, buyback plans, and the potential benefits of a steepening yield curve for the Capital Markets business, asking if the PCL outlook was overly conservative.

Answer

CEO David McKay acknowledged the cautious tone but emphasized the strong underlying momentum and opportunities in a lower rate environment, such as improved mortgage margins and increased M&A activity. He stated the caution reflects uncertainty around the full impact of mortgage repricing on consumers, but the bank is confident in its ability to manage through it. He confirmed the bank is still calling for a soft landing, not a recession, which supports the positive outlook.

Sohrab Movahedi asked about the impact of the three broad economic environments (faster growth, austerity, managed rates below inflation) on fundraising, specifically if any environment is more favorable. He also inquired about the likelihood of investor day targets being upgraded in any of these scenarios.

Answer

President and CFO Nick Goodman stated that demand for alternatives, especially real asset alternatives and essential service investing, has remained strong through various cycles, and he believes demand for real assets will stay strong regardless of the environment. He suggested that an environment of lower nominal yields could make real assets even more attractive, potentially leading to an upside, but no changes to current plans as the growth outlook is already strong.

Sohrab Movahedi referred to Bruce Flatt's earlier remarks about three potential economic environments and asked if any one of these environments would be more favorable than the others from a fundraising perspective.

Answer

Nick Goodman, President of Brookfield Corporation, stated that demand for alternatives, particularly real asset alternatives and essential service investing, has remained strong through various economic cycles. He believes that demand for real assets will continue to be robust regardless of the specific economic environment. Mr. Goodman added that an environment of lower nominal yields could potentially make real assets even more attractive, offering an upside, but emphasized that Brookfield's current growth outlook is already incredibly strong.

Sohrab Movahedi asked if Brookfield has a preference to monetize assets before making new investments and questioned where the greatest opportunities and risks lie amidst current market uncertainty, and if the 2025 outlook has changed.

Answer

President Nick Goodman responded that the company remains opportunistic and is not dependent on monetizations to fund new investments due to its significant scale and liquidity. He stated that opportunities are broad-based and that market volatility creates attractive entry points across their sectors. He confirmed their optimistic outlook for 2025 has not changed.

Sohrab Movahedi inquired about the eventual plan for the real estate transition and development (T&D) portfolio, which has seen dispositions. He also asked if Brookfield is considering changing the discount rates used to value its portfolios given recent movements in interest rates.

Answer

President Nick Goodman reiterated that the plan for the T&D portfolio remains consistent: monetize assets as their value-creation strategies are executed and market conditions become favorable. On discount rates, he explained that the firm did not significantly lower them when rates were at zero and has only made slight upward adjustments, with no major changes anticipated at year-end.

Sohrab Movahedi inquired about Brookfield's credit business, specifically the higher-than-usual blended fee rate this quarter, whether it's a new trend or a one-off, and the company's perspective on the broader private credit market given its growth aspirations. He also asked about potential negative surprises from partner managers and associated risk management.

Answer

Connor Teskey, President, attributed the elevated fee rate to an evolving private credit business mix and an outsized quarter for Castle Lake with one-off transaction fees, noting a broader positive trend. Hadley Peer Marshall, CFO and Managing Partner of Infrastructure, clarified that recent high-profile credit events are isolated, and Brookfield's portfolio, focused on real asset, asset-backed finance, and opportunistic credit, has no relevant exposure. She emphasized their expertise in structuring and underwriting, leading to low default and high recovery rates, and expressed confidence in the diversified platform, especially with Oaktree's integration.

Sohrab Movahedi asked about the credit business, specifically the higher blended fee rate observed this quarter and whether it's a new trend or a one-off. He also sought insight into Brookfield's private credit growth aspirations amidst recent market headlines, and followed up on potential negative surprises from partner managers.

Answer

Connor Teskey, President, explained the elevated fee rate was due to a mix shift and an outsized quarter for the Castle Lake business with one-off transaction fees, while noting a broader positive trend. Hadley Peer Marshall, CFO and Managing Partner of Infrastructure, emphasized Brookfield's focus on real asset, asset-backed, and opportunistic credit, avoiding commoditized direct lending, and expressed confidence in the diversified platform's growth and resiliency, with no expectation of negative surprises from partner managers due to robust due diligence and collateral.

Sohrab Movahedi requested a breakdown of the drivers for fee-related revenue and earnings growth similar to the fee-bearing capital plan from Investor Day, and asked what market dynamics make it both a good seller's and a good buyer's market.

Answer

CFO Hadley Peer Marshall offered to discuss the detailed earnings buildup offline but reiterated that growth will come from flagships, complementary strategies, and credit. President Connor Teskey explained the dual market dynamic by noting a robust bid for high-quality, cash-generative assets (seller's market) coexists with a shortage of capital for new development and construction opportunities (buyer's market), a bifurcation seen across multiple asset classes.

Sohrab Movahedi of BMO Capital Markets asked which segment, Canadian Banking or International Banking, is likely to exhibit stronger growth over the next six quarters.

Answer

CEO Scott Thomson responded that while International Banking is pivoting to steady 5-7% growth, he is particularly excited about significant net income growth in the Canadian bank through 2026-2027. This growth is expected to be driven by achieving positive operating leverage and the full benefits of its strategic pivot from optimization to growth.

Sohrab Movahedi asked how the updated target of a 12.5% CET1 ratio, which is higher than the 12%+ mentioned at Investor Day, affects the bank's medium-term goal of achieving a 14%+ return on equity (ROE).

Answer

President and CEO Scott Thomson stated that the 14%+ ROE target remains achievable and that the bank's internal plans had already embedded a capital level significantly in excess of 12%, providing a buffer. He expressed confidence in reaching the target, citing strong performance in Wealth and International Banking and a clear path to improvement in the Canadian bank through deposit growth, primacy, and productivity gains.

Sohrab Movahedi asked how the updated CET1 ratio target of 12.5%, which is higher than the 12%+ mentioned at Investor Day, affects the bank's medium-term Return on Equity (ROE) target of 14% or more.

Answer

Scott Thomson, President & CEO, confirmed that the 14%+ ROE target remains fully intact. He explained that the original financial plan presented at Investor Day had already embedded a significant capital buffer well in excess of 12%. He expressed confidence in achieving the target, driven by outperformance in Wealth and International, future growth, and productivity improvements in the Canadian Bank.

Sohrab Movahedi asked if the bank's tariff assumptions would be different if the quarter ended today, and which of the December 2023 Investor Day assumptions are being tested the most.

Answer

Chief Risk Officer Philip Thomas stated the assumptions would not change, as there is still no official clarity on tariffs to act upon. Before the call was cut short, President and CEO L. Thomson began a review, noting International Banking is on track, Wealth is ahead of plan, and GBM had a strong quarter, while Canadian banking is executing on its primary client strategy.

Sohrab Movahedi asked if the 12.5% CET1 target implies GBM optimization is complete, questioned the tangential benefits of the KeyCorp investment, and inquired about the bank's past experience with similar strategic 'optionality' investments.

Answer

President & CEO Scott Thomson clarified that GBM's focus on primary client relationships is a continuing strategy, not a completed exercise. He stressed the KeyCorp investment is financially attractive and provides long-term optionality, but is strategically separate from GBM's organic growth and does not involve balance sheet synergies. He referenced the bank's successful entry into Mexico as a past example of a similar strategic approach.