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    Stefan Diaz

    Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley

    Stefan Diaz is an Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley specializing in coverage of the packaging and industrial sector, with a particular focus on companies such as Sealed Air, Berry Global Group, Ball Corp, and Ardagh Metal Packaging. He has maintained key ratings and price targets, including initiating and maintaining Equal-Weight ratings on names like Sealed Air and Berry Global, with performance metrics such as a reported 57–61% price change on Sealed Air. Diaz has been publicly active as an analyst since at least 2024 and has participated in multiple earnings calls, engaging with management on key drivers and forecasts. He holds regulatory credentials supporting his analyst role and is recognized for his quantitative and qualitative research within the sector.

    Stefan Diaz's questions to BALL (BALL) leadership

    Stefan Diaz's questions to BALL (BALL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz from Morgan Stanley asked about the nature of conversations with customers regarding tariff strategies and potential impacts on 2026 ordering patterns. He also sought to clarify if the Q2 margin headwinds in North America were due to operational issues or contractual pricing changes.

    Answer

    CEO Daniel Fisher responded that discussions about 2026 have not yet occurred, as the current focus is on seeking tariff exclusions. He emphasized that customers need cans to drive volume for price-sensitive consumers. Fisher clarified the margin pressure was not from contractual pricing but from a product mix shift, as the faster-growing non-alcoholic categories inherently have lower margins than beer.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to BALL (BALL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz asked about customer conversations regarding 2026 tariff impacts and hedging, and sought clarification on whether North American margin headwinds were purely operational.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Daniel Fisher stated it is too early for 2026 tariff discussions with customers, who are currently focused on seeking exclusions. He clarified that the margin pressure was not from contractual price changes but from a portfolio mix shift towards lower-margin non-alcoholic categories, driven by higher-than-expected growth in that area.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to BALL (BALL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz asked about customer conversations regarding tariff strategies and potential impacts on 2026 ordering patterns. He also sought clarification that the margin headwinds in North America were operational rather than contractual.

    Answer

    CEO Daniel Fisher responded that it is too early for 2026 tariff discussions with customers, who are currently focused on seeking exclusions. He confirmed the margin pressure was not from contractual price changes but from a product mix shift towards lower-margin, non-alcoholic categories that are experiencing faster growth.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to BALL (BALL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz asked about the potential impact of tariffs on demand, particularly concerning Mexico beer exposure, and whether potential cuts to SNAP benefits have been a topic of discussion with non-alcoholic beverage customers.

    Answer

    CEO Daniel Fisher explained that the 232 tariff impact is negligible and key customers are compliant with trade agreements, minimizing the effect. He noted that while there are challenges for brands tied to the Hispanic consumer, it has not altered their outlook. Regarding non-alcoholic beverages, he expressed confidence that CPG customers are effectively innovating and reformulating products to meet consumer needs, mitigating concerns over SNAP.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to BALL (BALL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz inquired if low single-digit volume growth is necessary to hit the EPS guide or if it can be achieved in a flat environment, and asked for details on the supply-demand mismatch and inventory levels in Brazil.

    Answer

    CEO Daniel Fisher stated that a negative volume print would make hitting the EPS target very challenging, but a flattish environment could work if offset by strength in other regions. In South America, he explained Ball was caught with tight capacity in Brazil during a Q3 heatwave but is now reopening a plant and expects to return to growth in Q1, aided by recovery in Argentina and Chile.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to BALL (BALL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz requested specific volume growth figures for Brazil in Q3, an explanation for the segment's strong profitability despite volume headwinds, and whether recent hurricanes impacted North American volumes.

    Answer

    CEO Daniel Fisher reported that Brazil's market grew nearly double-digits, but Ball's volumes were flat to slightly down due to being caught off guard by a sudden demand surge, leaving 3-4% growth on the table. The strong profitability was attributed entirely to improved operational performance, not product mix. He also confirmed the hurricanes had no material impact on North American volumes as production was sourced from other plants.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to SEALED AIR CORP/DE (SEE) leadership

    Stefan Diaz's questions to SEALED AIR CORP/DE (SEE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz from Morgan Stanley inquired if the strength in the industrial end market was driven by the automation business and asked about the outlook for the industrial portfolio and automation into the second half and 2026.

    Answer

    President, CEO & Director Dustin Semach clarified that the company focuses on a 'solution sell' approach, combining equipment, materials, and service, rather than just automation. He highlighted that this strategy, exemplified by products like Instapack and APS auto bagging solutions, delivers higher value and margins and is a key contributor to the strong performance seen in the industrial portfolio.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to SEALED AIR CORP/DE (SEE) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz questioned the decision to maintain guidance for a second-half Protective volume recovery amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and asked about the company's exposure from international Protective products imported into the U.S.

    Answer

    President and CEO Dustin Semach explained that the full-year guidance remains intact because an improved foreign exchange outlook is offsetting an anticipated modest softness in volumes. He noted limited visibility into the specific impact of trade policies on end-users but stressed that the company's 'domestic for domestic' production model provides a natural hedge. To date, no changes in customer buying patterns have been observed.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to SEALED AIR CORP/DE (SEE) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz inquired about the company's automation business, asking for 2024 revenue figures, 2025 expectations, and whether it is still considered a material long-term growth vector, especially given the focus on near-shoring.

    Answer

    CEO Dustin Semach affirmed that automation remains a critically important part of the business, viewing it as an enabler that pulls through material sales rather than a standalone focus. He noted that while equipment sales have declined historically due to customer capital constraints, he is optimistic for 2025, expecting equipment growth in Protective driven by new hybrid AUTOBAG offerings. The focus is on net new placements to drive new material sales.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to SEALED AIR CORP/DE (SEE) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz asked about the company's automation business, requesting the revenue contribution for 2024 and expectations for 2025. He also inquired about any demand changes from near-shoring trends and whether automation remains a material long-term growth vector for Sealed Air.

    Answer

    CEO Dustin Semach affirmed that automation remains a critically important part of the business, acting as an enabler for material and service sales. While equipment sales have been soft due to customer capital constraints, he expressed optimism for 2025, particularly in the Protective segment with a renewed focus on Autobagging equipment. The strategy is centered on net new equipment placements to drive recurring material sales rather than just replacing older equipment.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to SEALED AIR CORP/DE (SEE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz requested an update on the company's cost takeout initiative, asking if the previous target of $140-$160 million has been revised and what additional actions are being taken.

    Answer

    President and CFO Dustin Semach confirmed they are on track for $90 million in savings this year. He stated that due to weaker volumes in the Protective segment, they are looking to increase the previously planned $50 million in savings for next year. The final target will be set in the coming months, with a primary focus on rightsizing the Protective business.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) leadership

    Stefan Diaz's questions to Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz of Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind Ardagh's strong North American volumes and the outlook for the second half. He also asked about European capacity constraints and whether the company is financially positioned to capture future growth in the region, potentially through brownfield expansions.

    Answer

    CEO Oliver Graham attributed North American strength to innovation and a favorable customer mix in soft drinks, energy drinks, and sparkling waters, noting he expects moderation but continued health in H2. For Europe, he confirmed the market is tight in certain can formats. Both Graham and CFO Stefan Schellinger affirmed that Ardagh is well-positioned to fund future European growth via capital-efficient, 'under the roof' brownfield projects that are manageable within the company's existing cash flow profile.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz inquired about the risk of substrate switching due to tariffs, whether strong Q1 demand was a pull-forward, the status of customer mix challenges in Brazil, and how can pricing is determined in the Brazilian market.

    Answer

    CEO Oliver Graham asserted that the risk of substrate switching is 'overplayed,' as hedging and lower LME prices have kept all-in metal costs stable. He confirmed there was no evidence of demand pull-forward related to tariffs. Regarding Brazil, he noted continued volatility but a strong March, leading to a cautiously maintained outlook. He explained that Brazil's pricing involves a mix of premiums, but the devaluing dollar is currently a net benefit for customers.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz from Goldman Sachs inquired about the potential demand implications of aluminum tariffs and the status of specific headwinds in the Americas, namely a customer issue in Brazil and energy drink category weakness in North America.

    Answer

    CEO Oliver Graham explained that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to be marginal (less than one cent per can) and is a pass-through for AMP, posing little risk to demand. He also confirmed that the customer volume issue in Brazil showed significant improvement late in Q4 and into the new year, while the North American energy category is also showing signs of recovery entering 2025.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz asked new CFO Stefan Schellinger for his initial impressions of the company and potential areas for improvement. He also questioned if the guided $30-$40 million in under-absorption costs for 2024 was still accurate and asked about the outlook for this cost in 2025. Later, he asked about the risk of substrate switching due to rising aluminum prices.

    Answer

    CFO Stefan Schellinger shared positive first impressions and highlighted a focus on continuous improvement in commercial and operational excellence. CEO Oliver Graham confirmed the under-absorption cost guidance for 2024 remains accurate and expects the figure to drop in 2025 as capacity is utilized. Regarding aluminum, Graham stated that while a price point for substrate switching exists, current levels are far below the threshold that would trigger such a shift.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS (LECO) leadership

    Stefan Diaz's questions to LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS (LECO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz, on behalf of Angel Castillo, questioned the Americas segment's margin performance, particularly the dilutive impact from the Vanair and RedViking acquisitions and the timeline for them to become accretive. He also asked if the automation business is still on track to achieve its $1 billion revenue target for the year.

    Answer

    CFO Gabriel Bruno explained that acquisitions typically take up to three years to reach normalized margins. He detailed that the Americas Q1 margin was impacted by an 80-basis-point dilution from acquisitions and a 40-basis-point impact from corporate cost reallocations, but the primary driver was lower volumes in automation. Bruno stated he no longer expects the automation business to hit the $1 billion target this year due to delayed capital investment decisions. CEO Steven Hedlund added that these order delays put the second half of the year at risk.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS (LECO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz, on behalf of Angel Castillo, inquired about the competitive dynamics in the Welding business, questioning why Lincoln Electric's organic growth has recently lagged a key competitor and asking for insights into potential shifts in the competitive landscape.

    Answer

    CFO Gabe Bruno attributed the variance to differences in business models, highlighting Lincoln's larger automation portfolio's focus on heavy industry and automotive. CEO Steven Hedlund added that Lincoln has a higher concentration of OEM customers, who have seen weaker demand than the distribution channel, where he believes Lincoln is gaining share.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to TIMKEN (TKR) leadership

    Stefan Diaz's questions to TIMKEN (TKR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz, on behalf of Angel Castillo, asked if there was evidence of customers pulling forward demand to get ahead of tariffs. He also requested more details on the strategic actions being taken in the automotive OE business, including its scope and similarity to past portfolio restructuring.

    Answer

    CEO Richard Kyle and CFO Philip Fracassa confirmed they have not seen any material demand pull-forward related to tariffs, noting that April revenue and May backlog remain in line with expectations. Regarding the auto OE business, Kyle explained the company is targeting more than half of its light vehicle OEM business for restructuring due to persistent unacceptable margins post-COVID. He expects this to provide a material uplift to corporate margins in 2026 and 2027. Fracassa quantified that the auto OE business represented about 8% of total company sales last year.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to CROWN HOLDINGS (CCK) leadership

    Stefan Diaz's questions to CROWN HOLDINGS (CCK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz questioned why the full-year guidance was raised by less than the Q1 earnings beat, asking if it reflected conservatism or specific second-half headwinds. He also asked for an update on the full-year share repurchase plan and the company's current foreign exchange assumptions.

    Answer

    CEO Timothy Donahue explained the guidance aims to be thoughtful and encapsulate potential risks from tariffs, particularly in the Transit business, given the fluid environment. Executive Kevin Clothier confirmed the full-year share repurchase target is around $300 million. He also noted the FX forecast for the euro was updated from $1.03 to $1.08, and some of this benefit is already included in the revised guidance.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to CROWN HOLDINGS (CCK) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz of Morgan Stanley inquired about how customers might react to potential aluminum premium inflation from tariffs, referencing the 2022 experience. He also asked for an update on consumer strength and growth drivers in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.

    Answer

    President and CEO Timothy Donahue recalled that in 2022, customers passed on costs, and he expects significant Midwest premium increases again if tariffs are implemented. He described Brazil as a long-term growth market, noted Colombia's plant is running excellently and sold out, and characterized Mexico as a large, solid business in excess of $1 billion, despite a minor customer mismatch.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to CROWN HOLDINGS (CCK) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Stefan Diaz asked about the consumer shift to cans in Mexico and potential capacity needs, as well as market trends in Asia and the risk from new competitors entering markets like Vietnam.

    Answer

    President and CEO Timothy Donahue acknowledged strong volume performance in Mexico but stated he does not see a need to expand capacity there or anywhere else globally at this time. For Asia, he noted that while the overall Southeast Asia market is up about 5%, Crown's volumes are down due to deliberate capacity reductions and pruning of low-margin customer business. He specified that a Chinese competitor's expansion in Vietnam is tied to a specific multinational filler and does not represent a broader market threat.

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    Stefan Diaz's questions to DONALDSON Co (DCI) leadership

    Stefan Diaz's questions to DONALDSON Co (DCI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Stefan Diaz, on for Angel Castillo, asked for a breakdown of Mobile Solutions aftermarket growth between market expansion and share gains, and requested an update on the status of previously delayed CapEx projects within Life Sciences.

    Answer

    CEO Tod Carpenter asserted that internal models with factual data confirm Donaldson has been consistently winning market share in the aftermarket for many quarters and expects those gains to continue. Regarding Life Sciences, he explained that large, multi-million dollar upstream bioprocessing projects that shipped last year have not been replaced by new orders, leading to tougher comps and a more guarded outlook, with no significant recovery in capital spending yet visible.

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