Stephen Grambling

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked about long-term opportunities to streamline costs or offset tax increases, specifically focusing on state access fees, data rights, and payment processing.

Answer

Co-Founder & CEO Jason Robins confirmed there is significant opportunity across the cost of goods sold (COGS) stack. He highlighted potential to reduce rates on older agreements and unlock value through payment optimization. Robins also mentioned that AI initiatives are expected to drive efficiencies in both COGS and fixed costs, stating they are 'just scratching the surface' of potential savings.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked about long-term opportunities to streamline costs, specifically inquiring about potential savings within state access fees, data rights, payment processing, and other cost of revenue (COGS) items.

Answer

Co-Founder & CEO Jason Robins confirmed there is significant opportunity across the COGS stack. He highlighted renegotiating older market access deals and optimizing payment processing as key levers. He also noted that AI initiatives and system efficiencies are expected to drive down both COGS and fixed operating costs.

Stephen Grambling inquired about the outlook for promotional spending as a percentage of handle and GGR. He also asked for details on DraftKings' 'AI first' strategy, seeking to understand the biggest opportunities and current applications.

Answer

CEO Jason Robins stated that promotions as a percentage of GGR should continue to decline, driven by a maturing user base and rising structural hold. On AI, Robins described a company-wide movement to leverage the technology across all functions for both revenue enhancement and cost efficiency, highlighting examples from customer service to document creation.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley inquired about the key factors influencing promotional reinvestment intensity for 2025 and beyond. He also asked about the company's share buyback strategy, particularly how it's affected by hold volatility.

Answer

CEO Jason Robins corrected the premise of the question, stating that DraftKings expects a 'pretty meaningful decline' in promotional intensity in 2025. CFO Alan Ellingson clarified that the share buyback approach will be programmatic and tied to free cash flow for consistency, rather than being opportunistic based on hold results.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley inquired about the customer acquisition assumptions within the 2025 revenue guidance and the specific drivers behind the 500 basis point increase in NFL parlay mix.

Answer

CEO Jason Robins stated the guidance is built on existing customer cohort data and an expected 11% structural hold, with cautious assumptions on new customer acquisition. He attributed the significant increase in parlay mix to product improvements, including new features like live SGP, better merchandising of parlays, and marketing, expressing optimism that these trends would translate to other sports.

Stephen Grambling asked for additional color on the disruption impact from Las Vegas projects and whether these projects are primarily maintenance or expected to generate incremental EBITDA beyond 2026. He also inquired about competitive dynamics in Macau, particularly regarding promotional activity and the outlook for margins.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings stated that the impact of the Encore Tower remodel is not yet quantified, as they aim to offset it with rate, and clarified that CapEx includes both maintenance (e.g., Encore rooms) and ROI-driven, EBITDA-accretive projects (e.g., F&B enhancements). For Macau, he noted no significant uptick in promotional activity, describing the market as 'hand-to-hand combat,' and explained that margins are an outcome of revenue driving, profitable reinvestment, and cost management.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked for clarification on expense management in Las Vegas and at the corporate level, questioning if cost containment was timing-related. He also inquired about the customer profile driving recent strength in Macau.

Answer

CFO Julie Cameron-Doe and CEO Craig Billings confirmed that Las Vegas cost control is the result of diligent, ongoing operational management, not timing. For Macau, CEO Craig Billings stated that the customer mix, characterized by an influx of new, high-quality premium mass players since reopening, has remained largely consistent.

Stephen Grambling questioned the rationale behind Wynn's integrated global structure versus a potential separation of assets, given the stock's valuation disconnect. He also asked for the latest update on the New York development opportunity.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings strongly defended the integrated model, highlighting synergies in capital deployment, global marketing, and capital structure that would be lost in a separation. Regarding New York, he confirmed Wynn is in the running but will not 'get over our skis,' citing complexities like potential online gaming impacts, tariff effects on construction costs, and local politics.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley asked about alternative strategies to unlock shareholder value if share buybacks don't lift the stock price. He also requested details on the OpEx mitigation efforts in Las Vegas and the outlook for 2025.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings asserted that buybacks are a long-term value strategy, not for an immediate market reaction, and reiterated their opposition to Opco/Propco structures. He described OpEx mitigation as a 'river of nickels'—numerous small adjustments that don't impact guest experience. For 2025, he anticipates managing more modest union cost increases and other input costs through disciplined operational management.

Stephen Grambling inquired about the reasons for the decline in RevPAR at Macau hotels and asked for an update on the rollout and potential impact of smart tables in the region.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings explained that RevPAR is not a meaningful metric for Macau, as hotels run at nearly 100% occupancy with a high degree of comped rooms. Regarding smart tables, he reported that about 25% of tables are covered, with a full rollout expected by Chinese New Year 2025. While it is too early to quantify the full marketing benefits, he noted clear advantages in game security and error prevention.

Stephen Grambling requested details on the assumptions underlying the projected EBITDA step-up from the co-brand credit card in 2026 and 2027, including changes in deal terms, new cardholder sign-ups, increased cardholder spend, and the inclusion of upfront payment fees.

Answer

Joan Bottarini, CFO of Hyatt, clarified that the upfront payment from the Chase agreement will be amortized over the life of the agreement. She emphasized the significant benefit of doubling earnings by 2027, driven by strong growth in the World of Hyatt program and rooms. She noted that the estimates are based on reasonable assumptions, with potential upside from continued growth.

Stephen Grambling requested more details on the assumptions underpinning the expected EBITDA step-up from the co-brand credit card deal in 2026 and 2027, including changes in terms versus new cardholder sign-ups or increased spend, and if the figures include fees from the upfront payment.

Answer

Joan Bottarini, CFO, Hyatt, clarified that the upfront payment's accounting recognition will be amortized over the agreement's life. She expressed satisfaction with the new agreement, highlighting the doubling of earnings by 2027 as a strong result benefiting Hyatt, World of Hyatt, and owners. She noted that the estimates are based on reasonable assumptions, with potential upside from continued growth in World of Hyatt membership and rooms.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked for an update on hotel dispositions beyond the Playa real estate, the planned use of proceeds, and the potential impact of recent tax legislation on the company's cash taxes and free cash flow conversion.

Answer

CEO Mark Hoplamazian confirmed significant activity on other asset sales and stated that proceeds would provide more flexibility for shareholder returns. He noted that while tax law changes offer some benefit via accelerated depreciation, the primary driver of improved free cash flow conversion is the company's strategic shift to an asset-light model.

Stephen Grambling asked about the co-brand credit card, inquiring if an early renegotiation was possible, similar to peers, and whether there has been any significant change in cardholder spending patterns.

Answer

CFO Joan Bottarini responded that while there was no update to share on a renegotiation, Hyatt is confident in achieving a very competitive new deal due to its strong brand portfolio and the success of the World of Hyatt program. She also confirmed that co-brand card spending remains strong with no concerning changes in behavior.

Stephen Grambling asked about the 18% increase in co-brand credit card spend, inquiring about the current contract's expiration and the potential to drive higher fees in the next agreement.

Answer

President and CEO Mark Hoplamazian disclosed that the current five-year contract, signed in 2021, is up for renewal and that Hyatt is actively exploring alternatives. He highlighted a strong negotiating position based on a doubled loyalty member base, high spend per cardholder, a high-net-worth customer demographic, and a greatly expanded portfolio of aspirational properties.

Stephen Grambling asked about Marriott's development pipeline, focusing on the sequential improvement in rooms under construction and whether changes in the economic environment, such as interest rates, have influenced this trend.

Answer

CFO Leeny Oberg highlighted the continued momentum in conversions as a key driver for the under-construction pipeline, noting that conversions are expected to account for a third of room openings this year. She mentioned Marriott's leading share in new-build construction in the U.S. and a pickup in Q3 for new construction starts, though overall starts remain below 2019 levels due to financing environment, labor, and construction costs.

Stephen Grambling inquired about the pipeline's strength, specifically the sequential and year-over-year improvement in rooms under construction, and asked about any environmental changes impacting this trend.

Answer

Leeny Oberg (CFO and EVP of Development) identified conversions as a significant and ongoing driver, expected to account for one-third of room openings. She noted Marriott's leading share in U.S. new-build signings and under-construction projects, with a Q3 pickup in construction starts. However, she cautioned that overall construction starts remain below 2019 levels, and further improvement in the financing environment is needed for a dramatic increase.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley inquired about Marriott's technology transformation, including the timeline, spending, and expected impact of AI and new systems on both hotel owners and travelers.

Answer

President & CEO Anthony Capuano detailed the multi-year overhaul of loyalty, reservations, and PMS systems, with initial deployment in U.S. select-service hotels starting later in the year. He also highlighted the Marriott AI incubator's work on concierge services and customer engagement. CFO Leeny Oberg clarified that peak spending for this transformation occurs in 2024-2026, representing about $100 million more than typical annual tech spend.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley inquired about the trajectory of fees per room within the development pipeline and the trends in using key money for development deals. He also asked if co-branded credit card spending patterns indicated any shift in consumer behavior away from travel.

Answer

CEO Tony Capuano noted that while key money use is increasing with conversions, the average amount per deal declined in 2024, reflecting continued discipline. CFO Leeny Oberg added that fees per key are rising with RevPAR and international growth. Regarding credit cards, Ms. Oberg stated that travel remains a priority for consumers, with no significant shifts observed in spending patterns.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked for a high-level comparison of the 2025 outlook versus the guidance provided at the September 2023 Analyst Day, focusing on surprises and the implications for the long-term EBITDA and free cash flow trajectory.

Answer

CFO Leeny Oberg affirmed that the basic growth equation of rooms plus RevPAR laid out in 2023 has held up very well, despite some puts and takes like FX. She noted the effective tax rate for 2025 is now expected to be higher at around 26%. CEO Tony Capuano added that they remain confident in the 5% to 5.5% net unit growth CAGR target set at the Investor Day.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley inquired about the timing and rationale for the new efficiency initiatives, the expected run rate for SG&A growth, and the outlook for 2025 rooms growth and fees per room.

Answer

President and CEO Tony Capuano explained the initiative stems from a position of strength and the company's value of embracing change after significant growth. CFO and EVP, Development Leeny Oberg clarified the $80-90M in savings is off the current run rate and it's too early for specific 2025 guidance. Capuano added that average fees per room are expected to grow in '24 and '25, driven by luxury momentum and strong incentive management fees, despite the push into midscale.

Stephen Grambling asked about the key milestones Caesars is watching for regulatory clarity on prediction markets, specifically if it will require a Supreme Court decision, and if outsized consumer wins are influencing money kept in accounts, indicating future wagering strength.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg anticipates a prolonged "cloudy period" for prediction markets, likely requiring court-level resolution, potentially up to the Supreme Court. President of Caesars Sports and Online Eric Hession noted that while customer balances increase after good weekends, this doesn't persist, and Q3's strong core volume growth was not solely driven by favorable customer outcomes.

Stephen Grambling asked about the key milestones for regulatory comfort on prediction markets, specifically regarding court levels, and the impact of outsized consumer wins on Digital account balances and future wagers.

Answer

Tom Reeg, CEO, expects a prolonged 'cloudy period' for prediction markets, with decisions likely at the Supreme Court level, involving states' rights versus federal rights, but no near-term clarity. Eric Hession, President of Caesars Sports and Online, noted higher balances after good weekends but said they don't persist long as customers tend to draw down or recycle funds. He added that Q3's core volume growth was strong, not solely driven by customer outcomes.

Stephen Grambling asked what is being done to manage sports betting hold volatility and inquired about major omnichannel initiatives that create synergies between digital and brick-and-mortar operations.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg described hold volatility as an inherent feature of sports betting, driven by correlated public betting on favorites and parlays. President of Caesars Sports Eric Hession added that they are improving hold in other sports, which helps raise the average. President and COO Anthony Carano and Eric Hession detailed omnichannel efforts, including host incentive programs for cross-selling, exclusive events for top digital and land-based players, and simultaneous product launches online and at properties.

Stephen Grambling asked if the $500 million Digital EBITDA goal requires sports betting handle growth and whether that target is a fully loaded number comparable to public peers if it were a standalone entity.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg stated that sports betting volume is expected to grow again in the second half of the year and that the $500 million target is achievable. He acknowledged that a standalone digital business would have 'modest dissynergies' from centralized costs but that access to the Caesars Rewards database would be a critical, documented component of any such transaction.

Stephen Grambling asked if the improving iGaming handle share was leading to a change in customer profile, such as attracting new players or increasing overlap with brick-and-mortar customers. He also requested an updated reconciliation of the company's path from its current ~$4 billion EBITDA run-rate to its long-term $5 billion target.

Answer

Eric Hession, President of Caesars Sports and Online Gaming, noted the Caesars Palace app has attracted more slot players and increased crossover with brick-and-mortar, a trend they expect to grow. CEO Tom Reeg reiterated the path to $5 billion+ EBITDA, explaining that the current ~$4 billion base will be augmented by hundreds of millions from returns on regional investments and continued Las Vegas growth, plus the inflection and significant future contribution from the Digital business, which is now starting to materialize.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked about Boyd Gaming's optimal leverage target for the business, particularly if M&A opportunities do not materialize, and how the company plans to optimize its balance sheet longer term. He also inquired about the Las Vegas Locals market, specifically the wide gap between 6% wage growth and aggregate GGR growth, asking if it's a lead-lag effect or if other factors are contributing.

Answer

Josh Hirsberg, CFO, explained that the company's long-term leverage target was around 2.5 times, but after the FanDuel transaction, it's currently 1.5 times. He anticipates leverage will gradually tick up to around 2.5 times over the next 1.5 years due to existing capital plans, primarily the Virginia development. He clarified that the company isn't actively trying to increase leverage to hit a target but will be thoughtful about capital allocation, including M&A or share repurchases. Keith Smith, President and CEO, added that it's too soon to definitively state the long-term leverage strategy but discussions are ongoing. Regarding the Las Vegas Locals market, Josh Hirsberg attributed the gap between wage growth and GGR to the impact of the destination business weakness, particularly in hotel revenues, F&B, and associated gaming revenue, which significantly affects profitability.

Stephen Grambling asked about the optimal leverage for the business, particularly if M&A opportunities don't materialize, and how leverage might be optimized longer term. He also inquired about the wider gap between Las Vegas Locals' 6% wage growth and GGR growth.

Answer

CFO Josh Hirsberg explained that pre-FanDuel leverage was 2.8x with a 2.5x target, now at 1.5x, and will gradually tick up to ~2.5x over 1.5 years due to capital plans. He emphasized a prudent approach rather than actively targeting higher leverage. Josh Hirsberg attributed the wage growth vs. GGR gap in Las Vegas Locals to the weakness in the destination business, which significantly impacts hotel revenues, F&B, and gaming.

Stephen Grambling asked which regions or business segments offer the best returns on invested capital for organic growth, and how those opportunities are ranked.

Answer

CEO Keith Smith and CFO Josh Hirsberg explained that they do not force-rank segments. Instead, they evaluate all capital allocation alternatives—including reinvestment in existing assets, new development, and share repurchases—based on which specific project offers the best risk-adjusted economic return against their internal hurdle rates.

Stephen Grambling requested clarification on the ownership structure and expected returns for the Norfolk project, the scale of the temporary facility, and the reason for the onetime revenue step-up in the Digital segment.

Answer

EVP and CFO Josh Hirsberg stated Boyd expects to own at least 80% of the Norfolk venture and will finance the full $750 million project cost itself. President and CEO Keith Smith added that the temporary casino will be much smaller in scale than others in Virginia due to site limitations. Smith also explained the onetime digital fees were from the early termination of long-term market access agreements with other operators.

Stephen Grambling asked for clarification on Wyndham's AI initiatives, specifically if it's primarily an internal tool for direct bookings, and how the company views partnerships or opportunities with indirect channels, including LLMs versus OTAs.

Answer

CEO Geoff Ballotti explained that AI is reshaping how guests book hotels, presenting an opportunity to reduce dependency on OTAs. Wyndham is optimizing its brand.com sites for LLM searches and experimenting with an MCP server to allow LLMs direct access to hotel availability and rates. He detailed Wyndham AI, leveraging a $375 million tech stack investment with partners like Salesforce and Canary Technologies, where 250 AI agents handle hundreds of thousands of guest calls, driving direct bookings, reducing labor costs for franchisees, and enabling upsell opportunities. Ballotti noted that Wyndham AI has already delivered a 300 basis point improvement in direct contribution for the hotels currently utilizing it.

Stephen Grambling asked for clarification on Wyndham's AI initiatives, specifically if they are internal tools for direct bookings, and how the company views partnerships with indirect channels like LLMs versus OTAs.

Answer

CEO Geoff Ballotti explained that AI, particularly LLMs, offers a unique opportunity to reduce dependency on OTAs. Wyndham is optimizing its brand.com sites for LLM searches and experimenting with an MCP server for direct access to hotel data. He highlighted their $375 million investment in a cloud-optimized tech stack, enabling faster, lower-cost innovation. Wyndham AI, an industry-first, leverages Salesforce and Canary Technologies with 250 AI agents handling guest calls, driving direct bookings, saving labor costs for franchisees, and increasing direct contribution by 300 basis points for hotels utilizing it.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley followed up on the topic of key money, asking if Wyndham anticipates deploying it more aggressively and what the governing principles or 'guardrails' are for that capital.

Answer

CFO Michele Allen reiterated that the company is always 'very judicious' in deploying capital, ensuring any key money investment provides appropriate economic value and meets or exceeds hurdle rates. She stated that she does not anticipate a need to meaningfully increase key money beyond the current outlook and that the strategy remains to balance investment in high-quality growth with opportunistic share repurchases.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley followed up on development, asking how agreement terms have changed amid higher interest rates and seeking clarification on the recent increase in loan advances, including the typical payback period.

Answer

CFO Michele Allen explained the recent loan advance was for a strategic partnership with a premier developer in Germany, a key market. This deal will add over 3,000 rooms and strengthen Wyndham's footprint in Europe's largest economy. She confirmed it is an interest-bearing loan with a payback period of approximately two years, structured to be well above their cost of capital with strong guarantees.

Stephen Grambling asked about the long-term growth outlook for the non-room fee segment, specifically the credit card fee stream, and also inquired about the current percentage of bookings made with debit cards.

Answer

CEO Geoffrey Ballotti addressed the new debit card, noting it provides an opportunity for credit-ineligible customers to earn points and appeals to younger demographics. CFO Michele Allen added that due to the renewed Barclays credit card agreement, ancillary revenue growth is expected to be in the low-teens range in 2025, up from 6% and implying about $35 million of incremental revenue, nearly double the prior expectation.

Stephen Grambling asked for a scorecard on the company's progress toward its 2026 EBITDA targets and inquired if further investment is needed to scale the Project ECHO brand.

Answer

CFO Michele Allen stated the company is very confident in its 2026 driver assumptions, particularly system growth and ancillary revenues, which are tracking well. She and CEO Geoffrey Ballotti confirmed that while capital was earmarked for ECHO, the necessary operational and sales teams are already in place and reflected in current EBITDA, with no significant incremental investment needed.

Stephen Grambling inquired about Hilton's tech stack and AI opportunities, including potential partnerships with large language models for distribution and internal AI efforts for both direct and indirect benefits.

Answer

Chris Nassetta, President and CEO, outlined three main AI applications for Hilton: reinventing processes for efficiency (G&A, system costs), enhancing go-to-market strategies and distribution by leveraging Hilton's control over inventory and fulfillment, and improving customer experience (CX) through mass customization and real-time problem resolution via its agile, cloud-based tech stack. He views AI as a significant differentiator for Hilton's network.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked about development trends in China amid expectations for modest RevPAR declines and how Hilton might backfill any potential weakness in that market.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Nassetta acknowledged short-term RevPAR pressure in China due to a government austerity campaign but emphasized the long-term development fundamentals remain strong. He stated that China is significantly undersupplied in hotel rooms per capita and that Hilton's development metrics, including signings and construction starts, are expected to increase year-over-year, making it a key long-term growth market.

Stephen Grambling asked about a potential downside scenario, questioning where economic deterioration would first appear and what strategic levers Hilton would use to navigate a downturn and enhance its long-term competitive position.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Nassetta emphasized the company's resilience, citing its capital-light business model, high margins, low leverage, and significant liquidity. He stated the team is 'fully prepared' for any eventuality, referencing their ability to outmaneuver competitors during past disruptions like COVID, which resulted in significant margin improvement. Nassetta assured that the company would maintain a 'steady hand on the wheel' to capitalize on any opportunities that arise from market dislocation.

Stephen Grambling noted skepticism at the ALIS conference regarding the hotel development backdrop due to interest rates and asked how Hilton has managed to grow its pipeline and defy the more cautious industry tone.

Answer

Christopher Nassetta, President and CEO, acknowledged the friction in new construction but sensed increasing optimism due to stabilizing costs, potential for lower interest rates, and greater capital availability. He stated Hilton is outperforming because its brands are highly financeable, attracting a disproportionate share of available capital for new builds and securing nearly 50% of all conversion opportunities, which helps defy the broader development slowdown.

Stephen Grambling asked how the fee-per-room mix of Hilton's construction pipeline compares to its existing hotel base and whether the development environment has changed as interest rates have declined.

Answer

CFO Kevin Jacobs responded that the development environment is beginning to 'free up,' with more conversations around property ownership changes, which typically drives conversion activity. Regarding fees, he stated there is no dramatic change in the fee-per-room mix of the pipeline and that it is expected to grow over time, supported by RevPAR growth, mark-to-market adjustments on contracts, and a favorable brand mix.

Stephen Grambling asked about the timing of new pricing and marketing communication efforts, specifically whether associated costs would be incurred this year or in fiscal 2027, and if a step-up in incremental costs is expected for 2027's recovery. He also inquired about the net impact of the Park City disruption from last year on current expectations.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz indicated that while additional investments in marketing and employee experience are planned, opportunities exist to offset these costs through increased efficiency from sophisticated marketing technology. The goal is to avoid pulling down margins. Regarding Park City, Katz views it as a tailwind for the upcoming season, expecting a significantly improved guest experience compared to last year's challenges, with positive evidence already seen in broader market bookings.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley asked about the timing of costs associated with new pricing and marketing communications, inquiring whether these expenses would be incurred in fiscal 2026 or primarily in fiscal 2027, and if a recovery in visitation and top-line in 2027 would necessitate a step-up in incremental costs. He also followed up on the anticipated net impact of the Park City disruption from the previous year, asking if it is expected to be a tailwind or a headwind in the current fiscal year's expectations.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz explained that while additional investments in marketing and employee experience are planned, the company aims to offset these by driving greater efficiency through sophisticated technology in marketing and other areas, ensuring investments do not pull down margins. He confirmed that the Park City situation is viewed as a tailwind for the current year, acknowledging past challenges but expressing confidence in the team's preparations and the expected high level of experience, which is also supported by broader market bookings for Park City.

Stephen Grambling asked if the costs associated with communicating new pricing and marketing efforts would be incurred in fiscal 2026 or if they are more of a fiscal 2027 consideration. He also inquired if a potential recovery in visitation and top-line in fiscal 2027 would involve a step-up in incremental costs. Additionally, he asked about the anticipated net impact of the disruption at Park City last year on fiscal 2026 expectations, specifically if it's viewed as a tailwind or headwind.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz explained that while there will be additional investments in marketing and employee experience, the company aims to offset these through increased efficiency in the marketing department and other areas, ensuring investments do not pull down the margin. Regarding Park City, Rob Katz views it as a tailwind for fiscal 2026, expecting a much-improved guest experience compared to the challenging prior season, with positive evidence already seen in broader market bookings.

Stephen Grambling asked whether the costs associated with communicating new pricing and marketing initiatives would be incurred in fiscal year 2026 or primarily in fiscal year 2027, and if a recovery in visitation and top-line in fiscal year 2027 would lead to a step-up in incremental costs. He also inquired about the anticipated net impact of the Park City disruption from last year on the current fiscal year, asking if it's expected to be a tailwind or a headwind.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz explained that the company sees opportunities to offset marketing costs through more sophisticated technology and resource efficiency, aiming to redeploy savings into productive investments without pulling down margins. Regarding Park City, Mr. Katz views it as a tailwind for the current year, believing the challenging experience was primarily last season. He expressed confidence in the team's preparation for the upcoming season and the delivery of a high-level experience, supported by broader market bookings.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked for more detail on management's comment about securing "good pricing on ships," questioning if this was relative to peers or historical costs, and what drives this capital efficiency. He also inquired about the key factors that bridge the gap between the gross pricing shown in advanced booking data and the final reported net yields.

Answer

Torstein Hagen, Founder, Chairman & CEO, explained that their efficiency comes from standardized, nearly identical ship designs and direct, hard-nosed negotiations without brokers. He stated their ship prices are attractive compared to both past costs and what competitors would pay now. Linh Banh, EVP of Finance, clarified that booking curves show the core price (cruise, land, air), while reported net yields also incorporate costs, onboard spending, and other ancillary revenues, which accounts for the difference.

Stephen Grambling inquired about the key signals that would indicate a change in consumer demand and the strategic levers Viking would pull in response, such as marketing, pricing, or balance sheet actions.

Answer

President and CFO Leah Talactac and Chairman and CEO Torstein Hagen identified booking pace as the primary demand signal. They emphasized that their first response to any softness would be to leverage their direct marketing engine to stimulate demand, not to use pricing promotions. Hagen stressed, 'It's marketing first.' Talactac added that any change in booking patterns would likely be observed across both River and Ocean segments simultaneously.

Stephen Grambling asked what key indicators Viking monitors for potential shifts in demand and which strategic levers, such as marketing or promotions, it would deploy in response. He also questioned if a demand change would appear in one segment first.

Answer

President and CFO Leah Talactac and Chairman and CEO Torstein Hagen explained that booking pace is the primary signal. In response to any softness, their first lever is to increase direct marketing to stimulate demand, not to cut prices. Hagen emphasized a 'marketing first' approach. Talactac added that any demand shift would likely be seen across both segments simultaneously due to the unified brand strategy.

Stephen Grambling inquired about the potential for gross margin expansion through leverage on the 'commissions and transportation' cost line and other mix shifts. He also asked what types of business models Viking might avoid in potential M&A.

Answer

EVP of Finance Linh Banh explained that margin expansion comes from focusing on overall yield, including ancillary revenues from pre/post-cruise extensions and optional excursions. She also pointed to SG&A leverage as a key opportunity. CEO Torstein Hagen added that for M&A, the company would be very careful about diversifying away from its successful 'One Viking' brand strategy.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley inquired about the long-term impact of inventory efficiency on product costs and asked about the potential for monetizing financing receivables through private credit markets.

Answer

CFO Jason Marino explained that despite plans to reduce inventory on hand, the product cost as a percentage of sales is expected to rise slightly over time due to a mix shift to new projects. CEO John Geller noted that while they always evaluate options for their financing business, their current securitization program is highly efficient, and a third-party deal would need to prove superior value creation.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked about recent owner growth trends, whether the company has specific targets for owner growth, and how the guidance balances the push for new owners against VPG performance.

Answer

CEO John Geller stated the goal is to increase the first-time buyer mix to above 35-40% to support the long-term health of the system, while balancing the lower VPG from new buyers against the higher VPG from existing owners. CFO Jason Marino clarified that the midpoint of the updated guidance assumes VPG will be down for the year, while the high end would require VPG to be flat to slightly up. Geller confirmed that net owner growth is expected to be positive.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley asked for a comparison of the profit flow-through from an increase in VPG versus an increase in tour flow. He also inquired about conversion rates for new owners and whether the long-term adjusted free cash flow conversion rate could drift higher.

Answer

CEO Mark Wang noted that owner VPGs are extremely strong while new buyer VPGs are stable. President & CFO Dan Mathewes detailed that VPG flow-through is materially higher at over 50%, compared to roughly 30% for tour flow. He also highlighted that acquisitions have significantly lowered the long-term inventory spend outlook to $300M. Regarding the free cash flow conversion rate, Mathewes was hesitant to forecast it higher than the 65-70% range, citing uncertainties like future tax rates.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley followed up on VPG, asking for the typical profit flow-through on a point of VPG versus tour flow, any changes in new owner conversion rates, and whether the long-term free cash flow conversion rate could rise above the guided 65-70% range.

Answer

CEO Mark Wang noted owner VPGs are extremely strong while new buyer VPGs are stable. President & CFO Dan Mathewes detailed that VPG flow-through is materially higher at over 50% compared to roughly 30% for tour flow. He explained that while acquisitions are lowering long-term inventory spend, which benefits cash flow, he was hesitant to guide for a higher conversion rate due to uncertainties like future tax policy.

Stephen Grambling asked for more detail on two strategic initiatives mentioned: 'more flexible financing' and 'new features to drive engagement,' inquiring about their specific components and rollout cadence.

Answer

CEO Mark Wang and CFO Daniel Mathewes explained that the financing initiative involves standardizing and simplifying programs across the legacy HGV and Bluegreen systems to improve cash at sale and unify underwriting standards. The engagement initiatives are a 'stacking' of efforts, including refining tour qualification models and enhancing the value proposition, with benefits expected throughout the back half of the year.

Asked about recent changes in customer behavior, how guidance might have differed a quarter ago, the anticipated inventory investment for 2025, and the rationale for the 18-month ramp-up of the securitization program.

Answer

Customer behavior trends are stable, with the lower-tier customer stabilizing and leisure travel remaining strong. Improved execution and the HGV Max launch are key drivers. Inventory investment for 2025 is expected to be at the high end of the combined range, around $450 million. The securitization program is being ramped up over 18 months, rather than all at once, to allow the company to execute at tighter spreads.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley questioned the reasons for the lowered full-year CapEx guidance and asked about the timing of major projects. He also inquired about the outlook for this year's Formula 1 event in Las Vegas compared to last year.

Answer

CFO Jonathan Halkyard attributed the lower CapEx to normal annual plan refinements, while CEO & President William Hornbuckle noted a strategic delay in a hotel system upgrade also played a role. Regarding Formula 1, Hornbuckle expressed strong optimism, citing improved pricing, robust ticket sales, and enhanced event content for this year's race.

Stephen Grambling highlighted MGM's significant share repurchases and discounted stock multiple, asking about other potential value-creation strategies like asset sales. He also inquired about the omnichannel benefits of BetMGM on the retail business.

Answer

CFO Jonathan Halkyard emphasized that share repurchases are a compelling use of capital, contrasting the stock's low implied multiple with high multiples from past asset sales. CEO William Hornbuckle added that the Northfield Park and Springfield properties remain under discussion for potential monetization. Regarding omnichannel benefits, executives noted marketing synergies and that the rewards ecosystem drives incremental trips and significant spend from that customer channel.

Stephen Grambling asked for color on Macau's performance during Chinese New Year and for details on the run-rate for wages and expenses in Las Vegas.

Answer

Executive Xiaofeng Feng reported a solid Chinese New Year in Macau, with traffic up 18% YoY and a maintained mid-teens market share. On Vegas expenses, Executive William Hornbuckle noted that the next union wage increase is smaller than prior years, and Executive Corey Sanders added that cost-saving initiatives are expected to help neutralize the increase.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley asked about underlying operating expense growth in Las Vegas and the Regional segments, excluding insurance proceeds, and sought clarification on the revenue growth split between iGaming and OSB for BetMGM.

Answer

Executive Jonathan Halkyard identified approximately $20 million in unusual collections expense in Las Vegas and $15 million in non-recurring operational expenses in the Regions. He also noted that FTE counts were flat to down year-over-year. CEO William Hornbuckle clarified that for BetMGM, both sports betting and iGaming revenue growth were 'on par,' at just over 20% each.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley posed a multi-part question on the HDFS transaction, asking why a 4.9% equity stake was the right amount to sell, whether the $1.25 billion cash distribution was a pre-tax or post-tax figure, and about the exchange rate.

Answer

CFO Jonathan Root explained the 4.9% stake per partner was chosen for regulatory ease related to the FDIC and Harley-Davidson's industrial loan corporation. He confirmed the $1.25 billion distribution is a pre-tax figure. CEO Jochen Zeitz added this deal structure was the optimal outcome among many bids, aligning with their stated objectives.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley asked a multi-part question about the HDFS transaction, focusing on why a 4.9% equity stake was chosen, the tax implications of the $1.25 billion cash distribution, and a clarification on an exchange rate.

Answer

CFO Jonathan Root explained the 4.9% stake was chosen for regulatory ease related to its FDIC-regulated Industrial Loan Corporation. He confirmed the $1.25 billion distribution is a pre-tax figure. CEO Jochen Zeitz added this structure best met their strategic objectives with minimal complexity, despite receiving offers for a majority stake.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked about the rationale for the 4.9% equity sale level in the HDFS deal, potential tax ramifications of the cash distribution, and details on the stock exchange rate.

Answer

CFO & President - Commercial, Jonathan Root, explained the 4.9% stake was chosen for regulatory ease related to its FDIC-regulated bank. He confirmed the $1.25 billion cash distribution is a pre-tax figure. Chairman, President & CEO, Jochen Zeitz, added that this deal structure was the best outcome among many bids, including offers for a majority stake.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked for more details on the company's initiatives to improve inventory and working capital. He also inquired about the long-term impact on free cash flow conversion, particularly if the retail cycle begins to turn.

Answer

CEO David Foulkes described the initiatives as diligent management of the incoming supply chain to align inventory with production requirements, noting there is more room for improvement. CFO Ryan Gwillim added that significant production cuts in the second half of 2024 were a key driver of the current healthy inventory position. This balance now provides a benefit for the second half of 2025, as production and wholesale shipments are set to increase.

Stephen Grambling asked about Las Vegas Sands' strategy to reverse its market share shortfall in Macau, including key performance indicators and timing for a turnaround. He also followed up on capital allocation, specifically questioning the timeline for resuming the dividend at the Sands China Ltd. (SCL) subsidiary.

Answer

Grant Chum, President & CEO of Sands China, explained that a more aggressive customer reinvestment program began in late April, with encouraging initial results in May and June. He noted the company will continue to adjust to market conditions and sees further potential in the Londoner property. Patrick Dumont, President & COO of Las Vegas Sands, added that as CapEx from the Londoner project decreases, the company intends to resume and increase the SCL dividend over time, consistent with its historical focus on returning capital to shareholders.

Stephen Grambling inquired about the timeline for disruptions at Marina Bay Sands (MBS) to subside and how the addition of new suites would impact EBITDA into the next year, and also asked about changes to the scope and expected returns for the MBS IR2 project.

Answer

President and COO Patrick Dumont detailed the ongoing room and casino disruptions, while Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein projected clear sailing by May 2025. Regarding IR2, Robert Goldstein confirmed the scope now includes a full-scale casino focused on the premium mass segment, expressing confidence the new development could generate over $1 billion in EBITDA on top of the original tower's expected $2.5 billion.

Stephen Grambling asked about the strategy to reinvigorate growth at lagging properties as the Londoner Macao ramp-up completes, and how initial results from the Londoner might influence future CapEx allocation.

Answer

An executive, likely Grant Chum, explained that while the primary focus is ramping up the new Londoner product over the next 12 months, the company also intends to grow its other properties concurrently. President and COO Patrick Dumont affirmed a strong belief in the Macao market and a commitment to continued investment for growth. The executive added that future investments in other properties would be regular, modest upgrades rather than major redevelopments like the Londoner.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley inquired about the specific initiatives Travel + Leisure is implementing to improve its new owner mix and enhance conversion rates for this customer segment.

Answer

CEO Michael Brown explained that the new owner mix percentage can fluctuate based on outperformance in the existing owner segment. He detailed key growth initiatives, including new marketing partnerships like Hornblower and the expansion of brands such as Margaritaville and Sports Illustrated, which are designed to attract incremental new customers from different demographics. He also highlighted that new owner close rates are already up 11 percentage points from pre-COVID.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley inquired about the company's ability to pivot sales efforts towards existing owners in a potential downturn, comparing the current opportunity to past cycles. He also asked about the composition of owner growth.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Brown responded that while the option to pivot to existing owners is always available, they are not at that point, viewing Q1 as a return to normal. He highlighted that investments in owner experience, like the Club Wyndham app, are driving engagement and sales organically. CFO Michael Hug added that new owner sales constituted 31% of the mix in Q1, with an expectation to reach the mid-30s for the full year.

Stephen Grambling asked about the 2024 net owner growth, the outlook for 2025, and the consistency of the new owner upgrade cycle.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Brown reported that net owner growth was minimal in 2024, with the company in a 'replacement mode' focused on swapping long-tenured owners for new ones with higher lifetime value. The strategic goal is to maintain a new owner transaction mix above 35% to drive a return to net owner growth. He also confirmed that the historical upgrade cycle for new owners has remained 'super consistent' over the last five years.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked about the outlook for competitive supply growth and developer behavior. He also inquired about which markets would be attractive for M&A if capital markets improved.

Answer

CEO Jeff Donnelly stated that 40-50% of their markets have high barriers to entry, estimating overall supply growth near 1%. President and COO Justin Leonard noted brand acquisitions are a bigger competitive factor. For M&A, Donnelly said they look thematically for recovery opportunities, which have recently skewed toward urban markets.

Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley asked for details on the company's recyclable capital program, inquiring whether it would be a source or use of cash in 2025, the total book value deployed, and the associated EBITDA contribution from these investments.

Answer

CFO Scott Oaksmith stated that the company is at the tail end of its investment cycle for the Cambria brand and expects recycling to begin in 2026-2027. Net outlays were ~$150M in 2024 and are expected to be lower at ~$115M-$120M in 2025. The total outstanding pool of these investments is about $600M on the balance sheet. He clarified that only owned hotels contribute to reported EBITDA (about $30M in 2024), while JVs and lending are below the line.

Stephen Grambling questioned the outlook for SG&A expense growth into 2025 and beyond, and also asked about the free cash flow conversion forecast, probing whether recent capital spending was front-loaded.

Answer

CFO Scott Oaksmith indicated that the company expects to maintain SG&A growth in the mid-single-digit range. Regarding free cash flow, he projected a similar conversion percentage for 2025, excluding recyclable capital investments, and anticipates a similar level of recyclable capital outflow (~$135 million) in 2025 before more meaningful recycling begins in 2026.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked for more detail on the factors impacting 2025 EBITDA, such as renovations and the Durango ramp, and sought confirmation on the incremental nature of the projected $25 million disruption impact.

Answer

Executive Scott Kreeger confirmed a potential $25 million disruption impact from renovations but expressed optimism about growth from new investments. Executive Stephen Cootey added that key factors include lapping Durango's opening, backfilling Red Rock, and lapping 2024's proactive salary increases. He confirmed the $25 million disruption is incremental.

Stephen Grambling asked about potential business impacts from the election, such as changes to corporate taxes or investment incentives.

Answer

Executives Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta noted that a potential elimination of tax on tips could boost the local economy and save the company $2-3 million in payroll taxes. Executive Stephen Cootey added that the company has already achieved a low effective tax rate of under 13% through tax planning for Durango and intends to apply similar strategies to upcoming projects in 2025.

Attempted to ask about the strategic offer again, inquired about the drivers of choppy performance in North America, and asked about the timeline for cost investments related to the ERP system and a return to normal flow-through.

Answer

The company again declined to comment on the deal. The North American choppiness was attributed to pre-election uncertainty, with a bounce-back seen since. They confirmed 2025 will be a transformation year for the ERP system, but cost savings from restructuring are underway, and they expect significant efficiencies and better flow-through after the ERP is implemented.

Stephen Grambling probed for details comparing the current strategic offer to the prior review, sought clarity on the drivers of choppy North American performance, and asked if 2025 will be an investment year due to ERP and staffing costs.

Answer

CFO Thomas Allen reiterated that management could not comment on the Board-led strategic review. CEO Andrew Carnie attributed the North American choppiness to pre-election uncertainty but noted a subsequent bounce-back and strong Q1 bookings. Regarding costs, Allen and Carnie explained that savings from recent restructuring would fund the ERP and back-of-house investments, with significant efficiencies and better flow-through expected post-implementation in 2025.

Stephen Grambling asked for a comparison between the current offer and the previous strategic review, and sought more detail on the drivers of choppy Q3 performance in North America. He also questioned if 2025 will be an investment year due to the ERP implementation and team expansion, delaying normalized cost flow-through.

Answer

CFO Thomas Allen reiterated that management would not comment on the deal. CEO Andrew Carnie attributed the slight Q3 downturn in North America to pre-election uncertainty but noted a post-election bounce back and strong Q1 bedroom bookings. Regarding costs, Thomas Allen and Andrew Carnie explained that while the ERP implementation will continue through 2025, significant severance charges from recent restructuring will fund these investments, with significant efficiencies and better flow-through expected once the system is fully implemented.

Stephen Grambling asked about the outlook for wage inflation next year and whether any policies from the new administration could potentially impact the business.

Answer

CEO Bryan Giglia stated that wage inflation is expected to remain in the 4% to 6% range for the near term, consistent with recent trends and recently settled union contracts. He noted that it is too early to speculate on the potential impact of any new administration policies on the business.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley inquired about the digital business in Ontario, Canada, asking how customer spend compares to the U.S. and if the segment is profitable. He also asked if iGaming cross-sell in Ontario is similar to the U.S.

Answer

CEO Jay Snowden described Ontario as a contribution margin positive market and a good story for Penn, with a similar mass-market user base as the U.S. He noted that Ontario's parlay mix is higher, in the low 30s, serving as a positive indicator for the U.S. market's potential. He also confirmed that cross-sell percentages to iGaming are higher in Ontario, suggesting further opportunity in the U.S.

Stephen Grambling asked about the current state of the hotel transaction market and whether Host Hotels & Resorts would more likely be a buyer or seller. He also requested a breakdown of the company's underlying run-rate EBITDA, accounting for recent acquisitions, hurricane impacts, and the Maui recovery.

Answer

President and CEO James Risoleo explained that the transaction market is becoming more active as debt markets improve and post-election clarity emerges. He stated that Host may test the market with non-core assets but aims to be a net acquirer, leveraging its strong balance sheet. EVP and CFO Sourav Ghosh detailed the calculation for the underlying run-rate EBITDA, starting with the $1.630 billion guidance midpoint and adjusting for business interruption proceeds, acquisitions, and the estimated $75-$80 million long-term impact from Maui.

Stephen Grambling of Morgan Stanley asked about the fleet's retirement cycle, inquiring if the company has returned to a normal attrition rate or if retirements were pulled forward. He also asked about the potential yield and revenue impact from non-ship investments like the Grand Bahama port and private island enhancements.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein explained that some ship retirements were pulled forward, so no significant attrition is anticipated over the next couple of years. Regarding land-based projects, he detailed that the new Grand Bahama port will boost yields and lower fuel costs for Carnival Cruise Line, while the pier at Half Moon Cay will allow larger ships, enhancing ticket prices and on-island revenue.