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    Stephen Hayward

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at HSBC

    Stephen Hayward is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at HSBC, specializing in European oil and gas sectors with a particular focus on major integrated energy companies such as BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni. Known for his rigorous sector analysis and investment research, Hayward has built a track record of actionable calls, with his performance contributing to strong investor returns and consistent top rankings among European energy analysts on industry benchmarking platforms. He began his finance career in the early 2000s, previously holding analyst roles at firms including Dresdner Kleinwort and Citi before joining HSBC in 2012. Hayward holds relevant regulatory credentials such as FCA approval in the UK, and his insights are frequently recognized in institutional investor surveys for their depth and accuracy.

    Stephen Hayward's questions to AEGON (AEG) leadership

    Stephen Hayward's questions to AEGON (AEG) leadership • H2 2024

    Question

    Stephen Hayward asked about the conservatism of the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) impairments and the likelihood of them materializing. He also sought a better economic explanation for the RBC ratio's negative sensitivity to both rising and falling markets.

    Answer

    CFO Duncan Russell explained the ECL charge was driven by more prudent forward-looking assumptions, particularly on US unemployment, rather than current defaults. On RBC sensitivity, he clarified the counterintuitive result stems from the flooring of VA reserves under US statutory rules, which creates a prudence buffer in up-markets that then mitigates the impact of down-markets. He suggested IFRS sensitivities are a better guide to economic exposure.

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