Stephen MacLeod

Stephen MacLeod inquired about the margin outlook for both FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands, expecting flattish margins for the full year. He also asked about quantifying the potential impact of the recent winter storm on activity and revenue, and if the company would consider share buybacks.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Rakusin confirmed that full-year margins for both divisions and consolidated margins are expected to be roughly in line with the prior year, with FirstService Brands experiencing a Q1 margin decline before picking up. CEO D. Scott Patterson stated it's too early to quantify the winter storm's impact, but Q1 revenues are expected to be modestly up. He confirmed zero revenues from named storms in Q4, compared to $60 million in the prior year. Regarding buybacks, Mr. Patterson noted it's a board-level discussion that has not come up.

Stephen MacLeod inquired about the margin outlook for both FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands for the full year and Q1, the potential to quantify the impact of the recent winter storm on restoration activity, the comparison of Q4 named storm revenues to the prior year, and whether the company would consider share buybacks.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Rakusin confirmed that full-year margins for both divisions are expected to be roughly in line with the prior year, with Q1 FirstService Residential margins also in line, but Q1 Brands margins declining before picking up. CEO D. Scott Patterson stated it's too early to quantify the winter storm's full impact, but Q1 restoration revenues are expected to be modestly up, noting zero named storm revenues in Q4 2025 compared to $60 million in Q4 2024. Patterson added that share buybacks have not been discussed at the board level.

Stephen MacLeod followed up on the restoration business, asking for specifics on where market share gains were originating despite the weak industry backdrop. He also questioned the Q4 margin guidance for FirstService Residential, asking if recent streamlining benefits were tapering off or if the flat outlook was due to seasonal weakness, and if these benefits would extend into 2026. Finally, he asked if the near-term macro headwinds impacting restoration and roofing represented a delay of work that customers were postponing, expecting it to eventually return.

Answer

Scott Patterson (CEO) attributed market share gains to strong positioning with national accounts, solidifying the existing account base, increased wallet share with larger clients, and signing new national accounts, indicating healthier activity across the branch network. Jeremy Rakusin (CFO) stated that the performance tapering for FirstService Residential was expected as initiatives have been ongoing for over a year, leading to significant margin improvement. He noted that Q4 fluctuations are due to a mix of higher-margin ancillaries and timing of hiring/pricing, deferring 2026 outlook to the February call. Scott Patterson (CEO) confirmed that the work is expected to return but requires macroeconomic stability for improvement in commercial construction and increased buyer confidence. He reiterated the long-term opportunity in both segments, despite current fluctuations and the lightest year for named storms since 2019.

Stephen McLeod followed up on the restoration segment's market share gains despite a weak backdrop, asking for the drivers. He also inquired about the FirstService Residential business's Q4 margin outlook, specifically if streamlining benefits were tapering or if it was seasonal, and if benefits would continue into 2026. Lastly, he asked if the roofing segment's near-term macro headwinds represented a delay of work expected to return over time.

Answer

Scott Patterson (CEO) attributed restoration market share gains to efforts with national accounts, solidifying the client base, increasing wallet share, signing new national accounts, and broad branch network activity. Jeremy Rakusin (CFO) noted that FirstService Residential's Q4 margin tapering is expected due to initiatives running for over a year, quarterly fluctuations, and mix changes, deferring 2026 outlook to the February call. Scott Patterson (CEO) confirmed that roofing work is expected to return with macroeconomic stability, reiterating the long-term opportunity in both restoration and roofing despite current fluctuations.

Stephen MacLeod of BMO Capital Markets asked about FirstService's confidence in the residential business returning to mid-single-digit organic growth, the long-term margin potential for the Brands division once organic growth accelerates, and the specific catalysts needed to clear the backlog in the roofing segment.

Answer

CEO D. Scott Patterson stated that budgetary pressures in the residential segment are normalizing, supporting a sequential improvement towards mid-single-digit organic growth starting in Q3. CFO Jeremy Rakusin explained that the Brands division would benefit from operating leverage as top-line growth returns, particularly in restoration and home improvement. Regarding roofing, Mr. Patterson cited interest rate and tariff uncertainty as causes for project deferrals but noted that bidding activity remains strong and a pickup has been observed in recent weeks.

Stephen MacLeod inquired about FirstService's consolidated exposure to macroeconomic pressures, the nature of project delays in the Brands division, and the current M&A environment, including valuation multiples.

Answer

Executive Jeremy Rakusin quantified the company's macro exposure at approximately 20% of consolidated revenues, tied to home improvement and commercial development. Executive D. Patterson characterized commercial project delays as timing-related due to economic uncertainty, while residential slowdowns are linked to consumer confidence, noting strong home equity should fuel pent-up demand. Regarding M&A, Patterson stated that while some processes are deferred, the market remains active with stable multiples, and FirstService expects to complete transactions this year.

Stephen MacLeod from BMO Capital Markets inquired about the visibility for easing budgetary pressures in the FirstService Residential business, the typical timeline for hurricane-related restoration work to convert to reconstruction, and the full-year top-line outlook for the Brands division.

Answer

D. Patterson (executive) explained that while residential pressures are normalizing, the recovery will flow through over a few quarters, but he expects full-year organic growth to match 2024. He noted that converting hurricane backlog to reconstruction work is taking longer, reducing near-term visibility. Jeremy Rakusin (executive) added that the Brands division is targeting mid-single-digit organic growth for the year.

Stephen MacLeod inquired if high M&A multiples were specific to roofing or a broader trend. He also asked for a quantification of the drivers behind the strong Brands division margin and for more clarity on the potential for the $40 million Q4 storm-related revenue estimate to increase.

Answer

D. Patterson (executive) confirmed that high M&A valuations are 'high across the board' and not limited to roofing. Jeremy Rakusin (executive) specified that strong operating leverage in the restoration business accounted for 'more than half of the impact' on the Brands division's margin expansion. Regarding storm revenue, D. Patterson stated that while they expect reconstruction work to extend into 2025, it is currently 'very murky' to quantify any revenue beyond the initial $40 million Q4 estimate.

Stephen McLeod asked about the service mix headwind impacting engineering margins and the expected evolution of investment management margins into 2026, considering integration costs.

Answer

Christian Mayer (CFO) clarified that engineering margins were only slightly down due to service mix. Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO) explained that the costs to unify the investment management segment under the Harrison Street brand are a strategic investment for long-term shareholder value, with modest margin impact expected for two to three quarters.

Stephen McLeod asked about the service mix headwind impacting engineering margins and the expected evolution of investment management margins into 2026, considering integration costs.

Answer

Christian Mayer (CFO) clarified that engineering margins were only slightly down due to service mix. Jay Hennick (Global Chairman and CEO) explained that the costs to unify the investment management segment under the Harrison Street brand are a strategic investment for long-term shareholder value, with modest margin impact expected for two to three quarters.

Stephen MacLeod asked for an update on the engineering business backlog for the remainder of the year and into 2026. He also sought details on the expected drivers for fundraising in the second half of the year to meet the annual target.

Answer

CFO Christian Mayer confirmed the engineering backlog remains robust, exceeding twelve months of revenue. For fundraising, he highlighted the successful launch of Harrison Street Fund ten and the upcoming Basalt Fund V in Q4 as key drivers. CEO Jay Hennick added that with approximately 20 products currently in the market, including those from RoundShield, they are optimistic about finishing the year strongly.

Stephen MacLeod requested details on the engineering business backlog for the remainder of the year and into 2026, and asked about the key drivers for fundraising in the second half of the year.

Answer

CFO Christian Mayer confirmed the engineering backlog remains robust, exceeding twelve months of revenue with a healthy mix of public and private sector projects. For fundraising, Mayer pointed to the successful launch of Harrison Street Fund X and the upcoming Basalt Fund V in Q4. CEO Jay Hennick added that with approximately 20 products in the market, including from the new RoundShield platform, they are optimistic about meeting their annual target.

Stephen MacLeod from BMO Capital Markets inquired about the state of the engineering business backlog for the remainder of the year and into 2026. He also asked about the key drivers for fundraising in the second half of the year to meet the annual target.

Answer

CFO Christian Mayer confirmed the engineering backlog remains strong, exceeding 12 months of revenue with a resilient mix of public and private sector clients. For fundraising, he highlighted the successful launch of Harrison Street Fund X and the upcoming launch of Basalt Fund V in Q4 as significant contributors. CEO Jay Hennick added that a total of 20 products are currently in the market, bolstering their optimism for meeting the fundraising target.

Stephen MacLeod asked for an update on the engineering business backlog for the remainder of the year and into 2026. He also inquired about the key drivers for fundraising in the second half of the year to meet the annual target.

Answer

CFO Christian Mayer confirmed the engineering backlog remains strong, exceeding 12 months of revenue, with a resilient mix of public and private sector clients. Regarding fundraising, Mr. Mayer highlighted the successful launch of Harrison Street Fund X and the upcoming Basalt Fund V in Q4. CEO Jay Hennick added that with approximately 20 products currently in the market, they are optimistic about achieving their fundraising goals.

Stephen MacLeod asked for an update on the engineering business backlog for the remainder of the year and into 2026. He also sought details on the expected drivers for fundraising in the second half to meet the annual target.

Answer

CFO Christian Mayer confirmed the engineering backlog remains strong, exceeding twelve months of revenue, with a healthy mix of public and private sector work. He noted that second-half fundraising will be driven by Harrison Street Fund X, the upcoming Basalt Fund V, and other products. CEO Jay Hennick added that a total of 20 products are currently in the market, creating optimism for a strong finish to the year.

Stephen MacLeod requested details on the engineering business backlog for the remainder of the year and into 2026, and asked about the drivers for the second-half fundraising target.

Answer

CFO Christian Mayer confirmed the engineering backlog remains strong, exceeding twelve months of revenue. He noted that fundraising will be driven by the recently launched Harrison Street Fund X and the upcoming Basalt Fund V in Q4. CEO Jay Hennick added that with approximately 20 products currently in the market, they are optimistic about achieving their fundraising goals.

Stephen MacLeod followed up on the Engineering business, asking for color on its margin dynamics in Q1 and the expected evolution for the full year 2025. He also questioned if Investment Management margins could return to the mid-40% range by 2026 and what returns are being seen from recruiting investments in Real Estate Services.

Answer

CFO Christian Mayer explained that Engineering margins will see a full-year benefit from higher-margin acquisitions in 2025, expecting a ~150 basis point increase, and noted comparability differences with peers due to revenue reporting and accounting standards. Both Mr. Mayer and CEO Jay Hennick affirmed a path back to mid-40% margins for Investment Management, with Mr. Hennick detailing an aggressive strategy to streamline the business for long-term value, even at the cost of 2025 margins. On recruiting, Mr. Hennick stated they are already seeing returns through strong leasing results.

Stephen MacLeod inquired about the new reporting structure, the drivers of Q4-weighted fundraising in Investment Management, and the on-the-ground sentiment and pipeline visibility for the Capital Markets business.

Answer

CFO Christian Mayer confirmed that pro forma historicals for the new segments will be provided with Q3 reporting. Chairman and CEO Jay Hennick explained that while fundraising pipelines are strong, conversions are slower, with large LPs re-upping but smaller ones reducing investments, leading to a slightly lighter forecast. CEO of Real Estate Services Christopher McLernon added that Capital Markets sentiment is improving with expected rate cuts, growing the pipeline for a gradual recovery into 2025, and noted that larger transactions are re-emerging.

Stephen MacLeod asked for an update on the printables channel in Q3, noting its similarity to Q2, and requested a breakdown of performance within segments like Fashion Basics, Basics, and fleece. He also inquired about the impact of the benign cotton cost environment on gross margin outlook and potential incremental upside.

Answer

Glenn Chamandy, President and CEO, stated that Gildan is performing well in a challenging printables market, which is down low single digits. He highlighted strong performance from Soft Cotton Technology, Comfort Colors, American Apparel's resurgence, and new brands like AllPro and Champion. Regarding cotton costs, Chamandy noted they are currently stable, with no significant impact on margins. Luca Barile, Executive Vice President and CFO, clarified that while lower raw material costs contributed slightly to Q3's strong margin, the primary and sustained driver of margin improvement is lower manufacturing costs.

Stephen MacLeod asked for details on the printables channel performance in Q3, specifically what Gildan is observing within each segment: Fashion Basics, Basics, and Fleece. He also inquired about the impact of the benign cotton cost environment on Gildan's gross margin outlook and whether incremental upside is expected.

Answer

Glenn Chamandy (President and CEO, Gildan Activewear) reported that Soft Cotton Technology continues to drive the basic strategy, Comfort Colors is performing very well, and AA is seeing good growth. He reiterated that Gildan is doing well in a market that is down low single digits. Regarding cotton costs, Chamandy stated they are 'going sideways,' implying no significant impact on margins. Luca Barile (EVP and CFO, Gildan Activewear) added that while there was a slight benefit from lower raw material costs in Q3, the primary driver of sustained margin improvement is lower manufacturing costs.

Stephen MacLeod from BMO Capital Markets requested color on the components of Activewear growth, such as POS trends by product type, and asked for specifics on new products launching in the second half of the year.

Answer

President & CEO Glenn Chamandy attributed the 12% Activewear growth to the success of its brand strategy, including Gildan Soft Cotton, Comfort Colors, American Apparel, and new brands All Pro and Champion. EVP & COO Chuck Ward added that new product launches are occurring across all channels, including distributors, national accounts, and large retailers. Glenn Chamandy emphasized these programs are meaningful and will drive growth in the back half of the year.

Stephen MacLeod of BMO Capital Markets asked about quarter-to-date sales trends in the North American distributor channel and sought more details on plans to expand manufacturing capacity in Central America.

Answer

EVP and COO Chuck Ward described an accelerating sales trend through Q1 that has continued into April. EVP and CFO Luca Barile reiterated the Q2 guidance for mid-single-digit revenue growth. President and CEO Glenn Chamandy explained that capacity expansion in Central America would likely involve leveraging existing structures for speed and cost-efficiency. He noted strong customer interest driven by a need to secure supply chains away from Asia, supporting a strong business pipeline into 2026.

Stephen MacLeod requested an update on the ramp-up of the Bangladesh manufacturing facility, including its Q4 2024 exit run rate and plans for Phase 2 investment. He also asked about the impact of recent distributor consolidation on industry dynamics.

Answer

President & CEO Glenn Chamandy confirmed the Bangladesh facility exited 2024 at a 75% run rate and is expected to be near 100% by the end of Q2 2025. EVP & CFO Rhodri Harries added that future expansion will be capital-efficient as the core infrastructure is already in place. Regarding distributor consolidation, President Chuck Ward and CEO Glenn Chamandy viewed it as a net positive, expecting it to lead to brand consolidation within the channel, which will benefit Gildan.

Stephen MacLeod requested specific POS performance data for Gildan versus the industry in fleece, Fashion Basics, and Basics. He also asked about the expected evolution of gross margin for the rest of the year and into the 3-year plan, and whether warm weather has impacted fleece sell-through.

Answer

CFO Rhodri Harries provided POS color, noting Gildan saw positive POS in Basics, mid-to-high single-digit growth in ring-spun, and low-to-mid-single-digit growth in fleece, outperforming the market in each. He confirmed gross margin is expected to remain strong. CEO Glenn Chamandy addressed the weather question, stating that while early July was soft, the key fleece selling season is still ahead and the company has a 'huge order book' it is actively working to fulfill.