Stephen Powers

Stephen Powers inquired about the assumed macro environment trends for 2026, referencing previous comments about a 'light drizzle,' and sought insight into the expected contributions from emerging versus developed markets to the 4%-5% growth outlook.

Answer

James Quincey, Chairman and CEO, reiterated the 'light drizzle' macro environment and stated the expectation to return to a 50/50 balance between volume and price. He highlighted that volume growth contributors like India and China need to build back momentum through 2026, suggesting more price at the beginning of the year and more balance towards the end.

Stephen Powers followed up on the 2026 organic sales growth outlook, asking how the company assumes macro conditions will trend. He also sought insight into the expected contributions from emerging versus developed markets to the 4%-5% growth.

Answer

Chairman and CEO James Quincey reiterated the expectation for a 50/50 balance between volume and price for 2026. He noted that key volume growth contributors like India and China need to recover and build momentum throughout the year, while the Mexican tax headwind is expected to be more impactful early on. This suggests a front-loaded price contribution, balancing out with volume towards year-end.

Stephen Powers inquired about service levels and customer satisfaction during the integration process and asked for the expected cadence of the remaining synergy capture for the year.

Answer

CFO David Hass reported that key service metrics like last-mile OTIF rates and customer retention have improved slightly. On synergies, he noted the capture rate accelerated through Q1, with half of the quarter's $20 million realized in March. He expects a significant ramp in Q2, which will help the company achieve its full-year target of $200 million.

Stephen Powers asked for a comparison of service level metrics between the legacy companies and inquired about opportunities to leverage best practices for broader business benefits.

Answer

CEO Robbert Rietbroek stated that customer service is a core focus and that both legacy businesses had similar high performance on metrics like on-time, in-full delivery. He highlighted that best practices are being shared, such as implementing ReadyRefresh's customer retention strategies at Primo Water and expanding brand availability across networks. He noted retail on-time delivery is in the high 90s, and investments in digital platforms like water.com are improving conversion rates.

Stephen Powers asked about the hiring of new CFO Amit Banati, specifically what he is expected to bring to the team and whether his background signals a greater appetite for major corporate actions like separations or sales.

Answer

CEO Thibaut Mongon emphasized that Amit Banati was hired for his 30 years of global CPG experience and proven track record in driving profitable growth. He will oversee finance and strategy, focusing on operational initiatives like revenue growth management, resource allocation, and strengthening cash flow. The hiring decision was based on his operational expertise and leadership in consumer goods.

Stephen Powers asked for clarification on the gross margin outlook, questioning if any known headwinds could cause sequential moderation and how the Alani Nu business, with its different margin profile, will be layered in.

Answer

CFO Jarrod Langhans confirmed the 50% gross margin guidance was for the core Celsius business. He noted that for Alani Nu, there will be a Q2 purchase accounting impact from an inventory step-up. He reiterated a previous comment that Alani Nu's P&L profile is about 18-24 months behind Celsius, suggesting a gross margin in the low-to-mid 40s. He promised more detailed pro forma views on a future modeling call.

Stephen Powers of Deutsche Bank inquired about the direct-to-consumer (DTC) expansion, asking if the channel has held up better recently and how impactful the initiative will be for fiscal 2025.

Answer

President Scott Morris described the company's own DTC business as small but performing strongly with encouraging customer acquisition and retention metrics. He emphasized that the larger opportunity lies in broader e-commerce through retail partners, which leverages their extensive network of 37,000 fridges as 'micro fulfillment centers'. The DTC initiative itself is still in an early, albeit promising, stage.

Stephen Powers from Deutsche Bank asked about the company's goal to align trade inventories with consumer takeaway by the end of fiscal 2025, inquiring about potential outliers by category or geography and the overall confidence level in achieving this alignment.

Answer

EVP and CFO Akhil Shrivastava stated that significant progress has been made, especially in Travel Retail, and the company is actively managing inventory as retailers tighten their stock. President and CEO Stephane de la Faverie added that sequential improvement in retail sales (excluding travel retail) is helping deplete inventory, expressing confidence in their ability to realign retail and net sales to resume growth next year.

Stephen Powers asked for more color on the European market, where McCormick is seeing volume growth and taking price despite consumer weakness, and questioned the drivers of that pricing.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Brendan Foley explained that proprietary research shows European consumer sentiment is 'strikingly similar' to the U.S., with trends toward cooking from scratch and value-seeking. He clarified that the pricing actions in EMEA are not broad-based but are targeted to specific items to offset localized commodity inflation, such as in their French desserts business. The focus remains on maintaining the right price points on the shelf.

Stephen Powers asked for confirmation on the cadence of brand marketing spend for 2025 and whether the investment would follow existing strategies or shift focus.

Answer

CFO Marcos Gabriel confirmed the high-single-digit increase in brand marketing spend would be applied evenly across all quarters of 2025. CEO Brendan Foley added that while the spending vehicles remain consistent, the allocation is strategic, continuing to support high-return brands like Frank's RedHot while also flexing up investment on other brands to drive growth.

Stephen Powers from Deutsche Bank pressed for more detail on Frito-Lay's pricing strategy, noting that pricing remains positive. He asked if management's comments signal a potential shift to negative pricing in 2025 and questioned the risks of not investing more aggressively in price to boost volume.

Answer

CEO Ramon Laguarta explicitly stated that negative pricing is not part of the strategy. Instead, he detailed a more 'surgical' approach using price-pack architecture to provide consumer options without diluting value. Examples include offering multipacks with various counts and introducing new sub-$2 single-serve options, leveraging the company's DSD system for targeted channel execution.

Stephen Powers of Deutsche Bank inquired about the company's free cash flow generation, which was tracking below the annual target, and the cash impact of the ERP transition. He also asked about the expected cash cost to buy out P&G's interest in the Glad joint venture.

Answer

CFO Kevin Jacobsen stated that the base business is on track for the high end of the 11-13% free cash flow target range. However, a temporary $50-$100 million cash investment for the ERP transition in Q4 will likely bring the full-year result to the low end (~11%). He confirmed the previously disclosed fair value of P&G's interest (~$530M) is a good estimate for the buyout cost.

Stephen Powers asked for a definition of 'production attainment fees' and whether they would recur. He also inquired about profitability thresholds for new innovation and how the company manages the associated complexity.

Answer

CFO Paul Rode explained that production attainment fees are one-time payments from co-manufacturers for failing to meet volume commitments and are not expected to recur. President and CEO Darcy Davenport added that the goal for all new innovation is to be margin-accretive over time and that the business's relative simplicity makes any added complexity manageable.

Stephen Robert Powers of Deutsche Bank AG asked about the consumer appeal of higher ABV products like Twisted Tea Extreme and Truly Unruly, questioning if it's driven by value-seeking behavior.

Answer

Founder and Chairman C. Koch responded that the company is very pleased with the market performance of its higher ABV products. He indicated the positive consumer reaction is likely due to 'a little bit of everything' and that these offerings are viewed as an important component of future growth.

Stephen Powers of Deutsche Bank sought clarification on the expected "balance of volume, price and mix" in North America for the second half, asking if all three components are expected to be positive. He also questioned if the return on investment would hold up as competitors also increase their promotional spending.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Steven Cahillane declined to break down the forecast but reiterated the goal is a return to a healthy balance, with a primary focus on getting back to volume growth. Vice Chairman and CFO Amit Banati added that excluding Nigeria, the company expects volume growth in all other regions in H2. Cahillane described the competitive environment as rational and returning to pre-pandemic norms, expressing confidence that investing in strong brands and innovation will continue to drive the business effectively.