Stephen Volkmann

Stephen Volkmann asked about the ongoing auto contract negotiations, comparing the current situation to past exercises, and inquired about the potential tailwinds for 2026, including the auto project, plant closures, and price-cost dynamics.

Answer

President & CEO Richard Kyle clarified that the current auto project is different from the past as Timken no longer operates dedicated automotive plants. He confirmed a positive outlook for 2026, citing multiple tailwinds including self-help from cost actions like three plant closures, carryover pricing benefits, a favorable portfolio mix, and a potential market upturn. CFO Philip Fracassa added that plant ramp-ups will also aid 2026 margins.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked about the ongoing automotive contract negotiations, seeking to compare the potential mix of business exits versus repricing to a similar initiative in the past. He also inquired about the key tailwinds expected to benefit performance in 2026.

Answer

President & CEO Rich Kyle explained that the current auto initiative is less complex than past efforts as Timken no longer operates dedicated automotive plants. He confirmed a strong list of 2026 tailwinds, including self-help from cost actions, carryover pricing from tariff recovery, benefits from plant closures, and continued disciplined capital allocation, all of which position the company for a strong year, especially with a potential market upturn.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked for a comparison of the current automotive contract restructuring to a previous one, specifically the mix of exiting versus repricing business. He also requested confirmation of the key tailwinds for 2026, such as the auto project, plant closures, and price/cost benefits.

Answer

President & CEO Rich Kyle explained that the current auto situation is different from the past as Timken no longer has dedicated automotive plants, making it less complex. He confirmed the list of 2026 tailwinds was good, highlighting self-help from cost actions, carryover pricing, and improved portfolio mix, which should position the company well for a potential market upturn. EVP and CFO Philip Fracassa added that plant ramp-ups would also contribute positively.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked if the current automotive contract renegotiation would be similar to a past exercise in terms of the mix between exiting and repricing business. He also inquired about the potential magnitude of tailwinds for 2026, including the auto project, plant closures, and price/cost benefits.

Answer

President and CEO Richard Kyle explained that the current auto project is different from the past due to a more integrated manufacturing footprint, making the outcome's mix uncertain. For 2026, he and CFO Philip Fracassa confirmed a strong list of self-help tailwinds, including carryover pricing, cost savings from plant closures, and productivity gains, which should position the company for strong performance, especially with any market upturn.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked how the current automotive contract renegotiation compares to a similar past exercise, specifically regarding the mix of exiting versus repricing business. He also requested a summary of the expected tailwinds for 2026, including the auto project, plant closures, and price/cost dynamics.

Answer

President & CEO Richard Kyle explained that the current auto initiative is less complex than past efforts as Timken no longer operates dedicated automotive plants. For 2026, he highlighted several tailwinds: a potential market upturn, self-help from cost savings via three plant closures, carryover pricing benefits, and an improved portfolio mix. EVP and CFO Philip Fracassa added that the ramp-up of new plants in Mexico and India will also contribute positively to 2026 margins and position the company for strong incremental performance.

Stephen Volkmann questioned Timken's conservative 2025 outlook, given positive leading indicators like the ISM index, and asked about the potential cost impact from tariffs on goods from Mexico.

Answer

CEO Tarak Mehta and CFO Philip Fracassa clarified that the cautious outlook is driven by persistent weakness in Europe and general demand uncertainty. Regarding tariffs, Fracassa stated that while they would create a short-term headwind, the company has a proven playbook from 2018 to mitigate the impact over time through pricing, surcharges, and supply chain adjustments.

Stephen Volkmann inquired about the renewables business, specifically regarding market visibility, potential market share shifts, and the likelihood of a recovery in 2025. He also asked about potential portfolio changes, such as divestitures, and the company's capital allocation priorities between M&A and share buybacks.

Answer

President and CEO Tarak Mehta stated that the wind market has stabilized at a low level and the company has walked away from some low-priced business, not expecting a pickup in 2025. He noted it's too early to comment on portfolio changes but reiterated a disciplined capital allocation approach with a bias towards M&A. CFO Philip Fracassa added that M&A has been key to diversifying the portfolio and improving growth and margins.

Stephen Volkmann asked about the feasibility of offsetting tariff headwinds in 2026 and the sustainability of the vocational segment's implied 40% incremental margins for Q4, seeking insight into future expectations.

Answer

CFO Matt Field explained that tariff mitigation is multifaceted, involving supply chain negotiations, tariff engineering, and then pricing, making it preliminary to speculate on full offset. He confirmed the Q4 incremental margin implication for vocational, noting the full-year guidance was 33% due to higher production throughput and strong airport product sales.

Stephen Volkmann inquired about the company's ability to offset tariff headwinds in 2026 and the expected incremental margins for the Vocational segment in Q4 and beyond.

Answer

Matt Field, EVP and CFO, and John Pfeifer, President and CEO, explained their multifaceted approach to tariffs, prioritizing supply chain and engineering solutions to minimize customer impact before considering price increases in 2026. Matt Field confirmed Q4 Vocational incremental margins around 40%, with a full-year guidance of 33%, driven by higher throughput and strong airport product sales.

Stephen Volkmann asked if Oshkosh can offset new tariffs with price increases as it did previously, given the current demand environment, and questioned the timeline for passing through these costs.

Answer

CEO John Pfeifer explained that while Oshkosh retains pricing power, the company's primary strategy is to mitigate tariff impacts through its supply chain first and use price increases as a last resort to avoid impacting demand. He noted that the company has more contractual flexibility now than during the last inflationary period and is focused on targeted mitigation efforts.

Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies Financial Group Inc. asked for commentary on the Defense segment's margin trajectory through 2025. He also inquired about the outlook for the telehandler business within the Access segment for 2025, given a potential gap to fill.

Answer

CFO Matt Field explained that the Defense segment's 4% average margin for 2025 reflects a transition year, with margins expected to start lower and ramp up throughout the year with NGDV production. CEO John Pfeifer added that the telehandler business is performing well, with recent share gains and optimism from a new agricultural line and the AUSA acquisition. He noted the change in the CAT agreement was a known 'speed bump' and the company will continue to supply CAT dealers.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies questioned why rising tungsten prices are not translating into a stronger margin outlook for FY26, given the historically positive correlation. He also asked if Kennametal should consider exiting underperforming business lines rather than just closing facilities, noting that competitors appear to be facing fewer headwinds.

Answer

CFO Patrick Watson explained the current tungsten price rally is unusual as it's not accompanied by the typical lift in end-market volume, though it will provide some margin benefit in the Infrastructure segment. President and CEO Sanjay Chowbey asserted that Kennametal is not losing market share and that its near-term market views align with peers. He also confirmed that portfolio optimization, including potential business exits, remains an active part of their strategy.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked about the impact of rising tungsten prices on FY2026 margins, given the historically positive correlation. He also questioned whether Kennametal is facing unique headwinds compared to competitors and suggested the company should consider exiting low-performing businesses rather than only closing factories.

Answer

Patrick Watson, VP & CFO, explained that while rising tungsten costs will be passed on via pricing, the typical margin benefit is muted because it is not accompanied by higher end-market volumes this cycle. Sanjay Chowbey, President, CEO & Director, stated that the company's performance is in line with or better than peers, attributing headwinds to broad market weakness. He also confirmed that portfolio optimization, including improving underperforming areas, is an ongoing priority.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked about potential margin impacts from mix shifts in the Aerospace segment moving into 2026 and requested an updated view on the eMobility business given market changes.

Answer

CEO Paulo Ruiz indicated a potential mix shift toward the defense market in Aerospace but noted the overall backlog is solid. CFO Olivier Leonetti added that there are still a few hundred basis points of margin opportunity from resolving inefficiencies. On eMobility, Ruiz stated the long-term electrification trend is delayed but intact, with current headwinds related to specific customer ramp-ups.

Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies asked about the sustainability of the Power Systems segment's high margins and whether there was pricing flexibility in its backlog.

Answer

Chair and CEO Jennifer Rumsey attributed the strong margins to multi-year operational improvements and robust demand, noting the pace of improvement has likely stabilized. CFO Mark Smith confirmed there were no one-time items boosting the results. Rumsey added that the segment has a two-year backlog and that pricing is generally set at the time of order, with the exception of ongoing tariff recovery negotiations.

Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies inquired about the sustainability of the record-high margins in the Power Systems segment, asking if the performance was repeatable or influenced by one-time factors. He also asked about the segment's backlog and pricing flexibility.

Answer

Chair and CEO Jennifer Rumsey attributed the strong margins to sustained operational improvements and robust market demand, noting the pace of improvement has likely stabilized. CFO Mark Smith confirmed there were no one-time items boosting the results. Jennifer Rumsey added that the business has a backlog of about two years and that pricing is generally set at the time of order, with the exception of ongoing tariff recovery negotiations.

Stephen Volkmann asked for more details on the Accelera business restructuring, questioning how its focus has changed and what activities are being emphasized or de-emphasized. He also inquired about specific unit volume targets for the HELM platform, particularly for natural gas engines.

Answer

Chair and CEO Jennifer Rumsey clarified that the Accelera restructuring aims to streamline the business by focusing investments on promising areas like battery electric solutions while pacing investments in electrolyzers and fuel cells. For the HELM platform, she noted its fuel flexibility is key, with a goal of reaching 8% penetration for the natural gas version, but stated that adoption rates depend on variable factors like fuel prices and regulations.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies inquired about the competitive landscape and how Caterpillar is managing its market position and merchandising programs relative to competitors.

Answer

CEO Joe Creed stated that the company is focused on its own customers and is pleased with the response to its merchandising programs, which are driving strong sales to users in Construction Industries, particularly in North America. He expressed confidence in the company's competitive momentum.

Stephen Volkmann drilled down into the Energy & Transportation segment, asking about demand from data centers and whether Caterpillar has seen any change in the adoption curve. He also inquired about production capacity and if the company is sold out for the year.

Answer

Joe Creed, COO and incoming CEO, confirmed that Caterpillar is 'pretty full' on large engine capacity for data centers this year but has some flexibility to shift production from weaker well servicing applications. He affirmed confidence in the demand outlook, citing constant communication with hyperscalers. Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby added that they are very encouraged by strong order and inquiry activity for Solar Turbines to provide prime power for data centers, particularly for the new Titan 350 model.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies inquired about Caterpillar's demand outlook for its data center business, asking about any changes in perspective amid long-term concerns and ongoing capacity expansions.

Answer

Executive D. Umpleby confirmed that demand for reciprocating engines and gas turbines for data centers remains very strong, with customers placing multi-year orders. He highlighted a planned 125% capacity increase for large engines over several years and strong market acceptance for the new Titan 350 turbine, reinforcing a positive outlook.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. inquired whether precision ag adoption is running ahead of expectations and asked about the broader strategic implications of the TAFE agreement beyond enabling share buybacks.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Eric Hansotia clarified that the PTX precision ag business is performing according to plan, driven by innovation and channel development. He described the TAFE resolution as a significant strategic win, allowing AGCO to cash out its stake, remove a board member, and increase focus on its core Farmer First strategy with fewer distractions.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies requested an update on the progress of AGCO's cost-cutting programs and asked whether higher incremental margins should be expected during the next industry upcycle.

Answer

CFO Damon Audia confirmed AGCO is on track with its restructuring, having expensed ~$160M of the planned $150M-$200M and is confident in achieving $100M-$125M in run-rate savings. CEO Eric Hansotia added that the program is being managed in detail. Damon Audia noted that while structural cost-outs should improve future incremental margins, some variable costs would naturally return in a recovery.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies inquired about AGCO's Q1 2025 regional profitability outlook, specifically asking if North America would operate at a loss, and questioned the proportion of North American sales sourced from Europe.

Answer

CFO Damon Audia confirmed that North America would likely post a negative margin in Q1 due to significant underproduction. He added that Europe is expected to be in the low double-digits, South America slightly negative, and Asia Pacific in the low single-digits. He also clarified that approximately 35% of North American sales are sourced from overseas, with 25% of that portion originating from the EU.

Stephen Volkmann inquired about the outlook for the PTx Trimble joint venture, asking if sales could increase in the next year as channel shifts normalize, despite weaker-than-expected initial performance. He also asked for an update on the public dispute with major shareholder TAFE and its impact on management's time.

Answer

Eric Hansotia, Chairman, President & CEO, explained that while PTx Trimble dealer sign-ups are on track, a 'last-time buy' from a former major customer is delaying new orders. Damon Audia, SVP & CFO, added that the CNH business wind-down will be a headwind on reported sales. Regarding TAFE, Hansotia stated it is a small part of the business (1% of sales) being handled by a small team, and that AGCO has made generous offers to resolve the matter.

Stephen Volkmann inquired about the drivers behind the strong Q2 operating margins in the Environmental Solutions (ES) segment and the outlook for the second half.

Answer

SVP & CFO Jennifer Kong-Picarello attributed the 19% margin to strong throughput at ESG, improved execution at Terex Utilities, and a favorable, non-recurring product mix in Utilities. President & CEO Simon A. Meester clarified that margins would likely moderate by about one percentage point in the second half as this favorable mix is not expected to repeat.

Stephen Volkmann sought clarification on whether the guided lower Q1 production was year-over-year or sequential. He also asked for a high-level perspective on the current Aerial Work Platform (AWP) cycle, questioning if it's a temporary lull or a more protracted downturn.

Answer

Executive Julie Beck confirmed that Q1 production will be lower year-over-year and "fairly consistent" with Q4 2024 levels. Executive Simon Meester characterized the 2025 AWP market as resilient in the U.S., driven by replacement demand for mega-projects, while Europe remains soft. He suggested upside could come from lower interest rates boosting smaller private projects.

Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies asked about the implied volume performance within the organic growth guidance and its future impact on incremental margins. He also requested details on the strong margin improvement in the Construction segment despite declining revenue.

Answer

CFO Michael Larsen clarified that core incremental margins are currently running significantly above the historical 35-40% average. He attributed the Construction segment's impressive 140 basis point margin expansion, reaching 30.8%, primarily to enterprise initiatives, which contributed 160 basis points. CEO Christopher O'Herlihy added that strong brands and technology also supported this resilience.

Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies Financial Group Inc. requested color on the Q2 outlook compared to normal seasonality and asked for an update on the full-year tax rate.

Answer

CFO Michael Larsen provided a detailed Q2 outlook, expecting flat year-over-year organic growth, a significant sequential margin step-up, and flattish year-over-year margins, leading to an EPS in the mid-$2.50s. He also noted a previous $0.30 currency headwind has dissipated. Larsen confirmed the full-year tax rate guidance is being lowered to 24%, but this benefit is not being added to the EPS guide to de-risk the forecast against macro uncertainty.

Stephen Volkmann asked for specifics on the range of enterprise initiative benefits by segment and requested a concrete example illustrating the power of Customer-Back Innovation (CBI).

Answer

CFO Michael Larsen detailed the enterprise initiative impact, noting the highest benefit of 190 basis points is in the Automotive OEM segment, while lower-end benefits of around 60 basis points are in high-margin segments like Welding. CEO Christopher O'Herlihy highlighted the Welding segment as a prime example of CBI's success, noting it contributed over 3% to growth in 2024 despite a difficult market.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies requested more detail on the 'focus branch' initiative, asking about the pace of the 200 basis point improvement and the performance gap versus the rest of the company. He also asked for the rationale behind the current M&A trend of smaller deals rather than larger ones.

Answer

CFO John Guthrie explained that 'focus branches' were defined as those under 6% EBITDA margin and that the current pace of improvement is a reasonable assumption for the coming years. Regarding acquisitions, EVP Scott Salmon and CEO Doug Black clarified that the smaller deal size is a result of the timing of when sellers choose to sell, describing it as a 'small sample size' and not a long-term strategic shift. They remain confident in their pipeline of deals of all sizes for future years.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies requested more detail on the operational improvements at 'focused stores' and Pioneer, including the timeline for margin recovery, and asked about the capital allocation priority between share buybacks and M&A.

Answer

CEO Doug Black detailed the turnaround efforts for Pioneer, including system integration, staffing, and logistics optimization, and noted that improving focused branches is a multi-year effort expected to yield significant benefits in 2025 and 2026. Both Doug Black and John Guthrie reiterated that investing in the business and strategic M&A remains the top priority for capital, with share repurchases considered for excess capital.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked about Carrier's long-term capacity and expansion plans for its data center and large applied HVAC business. He also inquired about the key factors that will enable the company to achieve its long-term 6-8% organic growth target in 2026 and beyond.

Answer

Chairman & CEO David Gitlin stated that the company is in 'good shape' on capacity, having more than doubled its North American applied capacity in recent years and possessing a global footprint to meet demand. To achieve the 6-8% growth target, Gitlin reiterated the three-pronged strategy of differentiated products, double-digit aftermarket growth, and integrated systems solutions, with each segment expected to contribute.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies questioned the unchanged mid-single-digit growth forecast for the Climate Solutions Transportation (CST) segment, given deteriorating industry forecasts for trucks. He also asked about the expected margin cadence for the segment.

Answer

CEO David Gitlin defended the forecast, stating that while North American trailer forecasts are down, Carrier expects its truck and trailer business to be up mid-single digits, supported by an aging fleet. He also highlighted expected strength in container and double-digit growth in aftermarket. CFO Patrick Goris projected CST margins would increase from 15% in Q1 to around 17% for Q2 and Q3 before moderating slightly in Q4.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies sought to clarify the components of the price/mix benefit, questioning if mix was negative. He also probed whether the trend of repair versus replace was driven more by consumer affordability and price pushback rather than just refrigerant canister shortages.

Answer

CFO Michael Quenzer clarified that mix was strongly positive, not negative, and is blended with price in their reporting. CEO Alok Maskara stated that while there are signs of consumers trading down and seeking more quotes, the primary driver of the repair-vs-replace trend was dealer confidence being impacted by the R-454B canister shortage, rather than significant consumer price elasticity.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked about the strategy for R-410A inventory, questioning if holding more would be advantageous for price competitiveness in 2025. He also inquired about the new commercial facility's ramp-up timeline, when start-up costs would abate, and if it would bring supply and demand into balance.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara explained that while having R-410A inventory provides a competitive balance, the ideal scenario for dealers is a clean industry transition to R-454B. He stated the new factory's start-up costs should fade by Q2 2025, with the facility reaching its planned initial capacity by mid-year. This will improve the supply balance but may not fully meet demand, as capacity is being added incrementally.

Stephen Volkmann asked for commentary on the European market's growth prospects and whether the vocational segment could be the next end market to weaken as backlogs are fulfilled.

Answer

EVP Kevin Baney described the European market as relatively strong, with DAF's market share up year-to-date. CEO & Director R. Preston Feight added that DAF's new truck, designed for new regulations, is providing a competitive advantage. He characterized the vocational market not as 'weaker' but as moving from 'frothy' to 'good,' supported by ongoing infrastructure spending.

Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies inquired about the growth outlook for the European truck market and whether the vocational segment might be the next to weaken as industry backlogs are worked through.

Answer

EVP Kevin Baney described the European market as relatively strong, with PACCAR's DAF brand gaining share. CEO & Director R. Preston Feight added that the new DAF truck provides industry-leading fuel economy. He characterized the vocational market not as weaker, but as moving from 'frothy' to 'good,' supported by ongoing infrastructure spending.

Stephen Volkmann questioned if Q2 would represent the trough for gross margins this year, assuming no changes to current tariff policies. He also asked about the potential for customer pre-buys ahead of either emissions changes or Section 232 tariffs.

Answer

CEO Preston Feight was reluctant to forecast beyond Q2 but suggested that as the market strengthens in the second half, it's a fair supposition that margins could improve. He does not envision a pre-buy scenario around tariffs but acknowledged that a 2027 NOx standard change could drive customer buying patterns in 2026.

Stephen Volkmann asked for color on the approximate 5% sequential decline in revenue per truck, questioning the impact of price versus mix. He also inquired if PACCAR has begun communicating the expected price increase for 2027 regulations to customers.

Answer

President and CFO Harrie Schippers attributed the lower revenue per truck to a stronger regional mix towards Europe in Q4 and unfavorable foreign exchange rates, which accounted for about half of the decline. CEO Preston Feight confirmed that PACCAR is having general conversations with customers about 2027 regulations, estimating a potential price increase in the $10,000 to $15,000 range.

Stephen Volkmann asked about PACCAR's pricing trends in Q3, the outlook for Q4, and whether the Q4 gross margin guidance of 15.5% to 16% serves as a reliable baseline for 2025.

Answer

CEO Preston Feight stated that truck pricing was flat in Q3 while costs rose 3%. He noted that while the truckload segment has stabilized, the vocational and less-than-truckload markets remain strong. Feight suggested 2025 could be a 'mirror image' of the current year, starting at a similar pace to late 2024 and accelerating, which could improve the price-versus-cost dynamic.

Stephen Volkmann asked for clarification on Deere's ultimate goal when pricing for tariffs: is it to protect the margin percentage or simply to cover the absolute dollar cost of the tariffs?

Answer

CFO Josh Jepsen provided a direct answer, stating, 'ultimately, the goal would be to find ways to protect margin.' He clarified that this is a comprehensive effort that includes not just pricing actions but also a strong focus on improving the cost structure and adding value. The overall objective is to protect the margin rate, not just offset the dollar impact.

Stephen Volkmann questioned Deere's confidence in the agricultural market bottoming process, citing the weak Combine Early Order Program (EOP) results and recent industry data.

Answer

Executive Josh Beal acknowledged the combine EOP was down more than the industry guide but emphasized it provides high visibility as it represents over 90% of the planned annual build, attributing the weakness to timing. CFO Josh Jepsen added that the company took early action on used combine inventory, which peaked in July 2024 and has since improved, indicating proactive management.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked if the $150 million in tariff-related pricing was evenly distributed between the ITS and PST segments. He also questioned the timing of cost-sourcing benefits relative to pricing actions, noting the lack of an expected margin dip in Q2.

Answer

CFO Vik Kini explained that the pricing actions were commensurate and proportional across both segments. He clarified that the margin impact was mitigated in Q2 because pricing actions were implemented in two tranches (April 1 and May 1), which helped offset the tariff costs as they folded in, while the benefits from cost actions are expected to materialize over a longer period.

Stephen Volkmann asked if the company's incremental margin targets were similar for both segments and questioned how the company balances high PST margin goals with its active M&A strategy, which can be dilutive.

Answer

CFO Vik Kini confirmed that incremental margin expectations are broadly similar for both segments. CEO Vicente Reynal addressed the M&A question by stating that not all acquisitions are dilutive, citing a past deal (ABI) that was highly accretive. He emphasized that the M&A strategy is balanced, and the current funnel includes targets that could be accretive to PST's fleet average margin.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies asked for clarification on whether WESCO's revised 2025 outlook incorporates recent tariff-related price increases and the financial benefit from its preferred stock redemption.

Answer

David Schulz, EVP and CFO, explained that the outlook does not include any tariff-related price increases from Q1 or Q2, consistent with the company's standard practice of waiting for price changes to impact revenue, which typically has a two-quarter lag. He also confirmed that the financial benefit from the preferred stock redemption was already factored into the original and reaffirmed guidance for the year.

Stephen Volkmann questioned whether the rapid growth in large, lower-margin data center projects would create a persistent margin headwind and asked about the 2025 free cash flow guidance.

Answer

CEO John Engel explained that while the initial direct-ship phases of data center projects carry lower gross margins, profitability normalizes and improves over the project lifecycle as WESCO provides more products and higher-margin services. EVP and CFO David Schulz added that working capital is expected to grow at half the rate of sales in 2025, driving further efficiency, though some inventory builds for new contracts will occur in Q1.

Stephen Volkmann sought more detail on the tariff impact, asking about the timing of price increases and confirming if the dollar-for-dollar pass-through implies a lower margin rate. He also questioned the potential to recover the original margin target over the long term.

Answer

CFO Rocky Kraft stated that price increases are expected to be fully in place by July 1. He confirmed that a dollar-for-dollar pass-through will negatively impact the margin rate by approximately 300 basis points long-term. Kraft noted that recovering to the previous 47% structural margin target would be challenging and likely require a substantial reduction in tariffs.

Stephen Volkmann asked about the timing and potential impact on gross margin from the upcoming renegotiation of ocean freight container rates. He also inquired about the key factors that would support the company's ability to maintain a gross margin of 47% or better in 2025.

Answer

COO John Michael Adinolfi explained that new ocean freight contracts take effect May 1, 2025, but due to inventory turn times, any financial impact would be nominal and not materialize until late in Q4 2025. CEO Doug Cahill added that the expected return to growth of the high-margin RDS segment provides a natural floor for the overall gross margin rate, giving them confidence in maintaining the 47%+ level for the foreseeable future, even as mix shifts within the HPS business.

Stephen Volkmann sought more detail on the areas of price competitiveness, including product types and competitors, and asked why the current inflationary environment isn't providing the same gross margin benefit as it did during the pandemic.

Answer

CEO Peter Arvan explained that price competition is not new and often comes from competitors who lack POOLCORP's value proposition, forcing them to compete on price. He noted that the company responds strategically and will not chase unsustainable pricing. CFO Melanie M. Hart and CEO Peter Arvan clarified that unlike the pandemic's high-demand environment, the current weaker end-market for discretionary products limits the ability to expand margins from inflation, although they are positioned to take advantage of strategic pre-buy opportunities.

Stephen Volkmann asked for details on Watsco's 10% growth in residential replacement systems, inquiring about the sales mix between 454B and 410A refrigerants and the impact of pricing on gross margins.

Answer

Paul Johnston, an executive, clarified that first-quarter sales were predominantly 410A (75-80%), with the transition to A2L products accelerating in the second quarter. He noted that Q1 gross margin improvement was mainly due to a favorable sales mix, with significant OEM price increases occurring in April, which will impact future margins.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies followed up on the tariff discussion, asking about the unprecedented magnitude of the potential price increases and whether Fastenal would attempt to smooth out the impact for its customers.

Answer

CEO Daniel Florness stated that while there is no mathematical way to fully cushion a 145% tariff, the company's inventory serves as a buffer, providing time to explore sourcing optionality. CFO Holden Lewis clarified that pricing actions are aligned with when the higher costs impact the P&L. He noted that tariffs affect costs much faster than general inflation, which is why the company began implementing price changes in April following tariff announcements in February and March.

Stephen Volkmann asked for the outlook on operating expenses for the upcoming year, considering normal employee cost increases and other factors.

Answer

CFO Holden Lewis stated that as growth reasserts itself, the company should be able to leverage operating expenses and achieve the high end of its 20% to 25% incremental margin target. He cautioned that in the first year of a recovery, the return of employee bonuses acts as a "shock absorber" on leverage, which is factored into that expectation.

Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies inquired about the outlook for branch growth in 2025 and whether recent inventory additions would create a material gross margin tailwind.

Answer

CEO Dan Florness stated he expects branch growth to resume in 2025 as the company anniversaries operational changes, noting the Eastern U.S. is already seeing positive growth. CFO Holden Lewis clarified that while a gross margin tailwind from inventory is expected, it likely won't materialize until mid-2025 as lower-cost imported product takes several quarters to arrive.

Stephen Volkmann asked for an explanation for the slight price decline in the quarter and the outlook for Q3. He also posed a broader question on how MSC views price-cost dynamics in the current inflationary but soft-demand environment compared to past cycles.

Answer

CFO Kristen Actis-Grande attributed the Q2 price metric to unfavorable customer mix, noting same-item pricing was more positive. CEO Erik Gershwind addressed the broader question, stating that inflation is generally constructive for distributors and that MSC expects to pass on costs, supported by its Made in USA offering and productivity playbook. He cautioned, however, that the current environment is 'uncharted water' due to its fluidity and scope.

Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies inquired if a potential tariff-induced inflationary environment would serve as a gross margin tailwind for the company, consistent with historical patterns.

Answer

Kristen Actis-Grande, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that the company sees no reason why the dynamic would be different in this situation, implying it would likely be a positive for gross margins.

Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies asked about the historical behavior of distributors, specifically whether they tend to restock inventory based on improving sentiment or if they wait for actual demand to materialize.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek explained that distributor restocking is more of a "quick pass-through" tied to actual demand rather than sentiment. He attributed this to Gates' extremely high service levels and fill rates, which allow distributors to optimize their working capital and avoid restocking significantly in advance of a market recovery. They will likely wait to see a definitive turn before increasing inventory.

Stephen Volkmann inquired about capacity utilization for Applied products and large chillers, asking if capacity additions are expected. He also asked about field engineer utilization and the need for additional hiring to support growth.

Answer

CFO Marc Vandiepenbeeck provided a regional breakdown, stating North America is near capacity, EMEA/LA is at capacity and may need expansion, while Asia Pacific has significant spare capacity. He noted that while AI and other tools are improving technician productivity, continued investment in field labor is critical to support service growth.

Stephen Volkmann asked if Parker is seeing an increase in business inquiries as other manufacturers look to localize their supply chains, potentially creating a share gain opportunity. He also questioned if the recent step-up in share repurchases signals that M&A is further out.

Answer

Executives Jennifer Parmentier and Todd Leombruno agreed there could be share gain opportunities, with Leombruno noting that for any business lost to tariffs, there's an opportunity to win other business. On capital allocation, Leombruno stated the increased repurchase was to manage leverage toward their 2.0x target, not because M&A is delayed. He reiterated that the M&A pipeline is active, but timing is hard to predict.