Steve Sakwa

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the breakdown of the 2 million square foot leasing pipeline across PENN 1, PENN 2, and the rest of the portfolio. He also asked about the confidence level in reaching 80% leased at PENN 2 by year-end and the decision milestones for the 350 Park development.

Answer

Executive Glen Weiss stated that approximately 50% of the pipeline is for PENN 1 and PENN 2. President and CFO Michael Franco affirmed confidence in achieving leasing targets for PENN 2, emphasizing that the timing is less critical than securing high-quality tenants and rents. Chairman and CEO Steven Roth directed the question on 350 Park to the company's 10-K and press releases for detailed information.

In a follow-up question, Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI asked if there are any unique accounting considerations for the nearly finalized master lease with NYU at 770 Broadway.

Answer

Steven Roth, Chairman and CEO, declined to comment on the specifics of the transaction prematurely. He stated that the deal is finalized and will be announced by the end of the month, at which point a press release will provide all necessary details for analysts to understand its financial implications.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the leasing timeline and competitive dynamics for the PENN 2 development, the confidence behind raising its yield projection, the rents being achieved, and any unique accounting considerations for the 770 Broadway master lease.

Answer

Executive Glen Weiss stated that PENN 2 is a top choice for large tenants, with a 330,000 sq. ft. lease imminent and an LOI for another major headquarters. He confirmed rents have been raised across the building. Chairman and CEO Steven Roth added that the 770 Broadway lease details will be announced by month-end, and he chose not to discuss the accounting prematurely.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the leasing timeline and competitive dynamics for the Penn 2 development, seeking details on rental rates and the confidence behind the increased yield guidance. He also asked about any unique accounting treatments for the 770 Broadway master lease.

Answer

Executive Glen Weiss stated that Penn 2 is a top choice for large tenants, with a 330,000 sq. ft. lease imminent and a major headquarters LOI in negotiation, confirming that rents have been raised across the building. Chairman and CEO Steven Roth deferred a detailed answer on the 770 Broadway lease, promising a full press release with all necessary details by the end of the month.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the leasing momentum and competitive dynamics for the Penn 2 redevelopment, the confidence behind raising its projected yield, and the accounting nuances of the forthcoming 770 Broadway master lease.

Answer

Executive Vice President Glen Weiss stated that Penn 2 is a top choice for large tenants, with a 330,000 sq. ft. lease out for signature and a major headquarters LOI in negotiation, leading Vornado to raise rents across the building. Chairman and CEO Steven Roth declined to comment on the 770 Broadway lease specifics ahead of the official announcement but assured all necessary details would be provided.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the leasing pipeline excluding the NYU deal, specifically asking about activity at PENN2 and the confidence level for signing leases there before year-end. He also asked for an update on potential street retail sales.

Answer

EVP Glen Weiss stated there are 600,000-700,000 sq. ft. of leases in negotiation beyond the NYU deal, with expectations to sign two or three major leases at PENN2 in Q4. Chairman and CEO Steven Roth added that while retail demand is strong, the key update is that Vornado will have monetized half of its retail preferred equity at par, significantly strengthening the balance sheet.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the specifics of the 'handshake deal' for a master lease at 770 Broadway and sought more detail on the PENN2 leasing pipeline, including the types of tenants and the drivers of their interest.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Steven Roth declined to provide further details on the 770 Broadway transaction, citing a confidentiality agreement. Glen Weiss, an executive at Vornado, elaborated on the PENN District pipeline, stating it includes a diverse mix of tenants from technology, fashion, finance, legal, and media sectors, with strong activity at both PENN1 and PENN2.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the specifics of the 770 Broadway transaction, the types of tenants in the PENN2 leasing pipeline, and the earnings outlook for 2025.

Answer

Steven Roth, Chairman & CEO, declined to comment on 770 Broadway due to a confidentiality agreement. Glen Weiss, an executive, detailed that the PENN2 pipeline includes a diverse mix of tenants from technology, fashion, finance, and legal sectors. Michael Franco, President & CFO, noted that while the 2025 earnings outlook is positive, it's too early for specifics given several major pending transactions.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the composition of Vornado's 2.5 million square foot leasing pipeline and sought clarification on the forecasted 2024 earnings drag from interest expenses and known vacancies.

Answer

Executive Glen Weiss described the leasing pipeline as a balanced mix of activity at the PENN District, early renewals, and efforts to backfill current vacancies. President and CFO Michael Franco confirmed that a potential $0.55 to $0.60 per share earnings drag is a reasonable baseline for 2024, stemming from higher interest costs and tenant move-outs. Chairman and CEO Steven Roth added that future earnings power is significant, citing re-leasing, the PENN 2 development, and potential interest rate normalization as major tailwinds.

Steve Sakwa inquired if AvalonBay views its Southern California and Mid-Atlantic markets differently on a long-term basis, considering recent softness, and if the company aims for lower exposure in these regions.

Answer

Ben Schall, CEO and President, confirmed AvalonBay's ongoing strategy to reduce overall exposure in the Mid-Atlantic and California, with a specific focus on increasing presence in Northern Virginia within the Mid-Atlantic. Sean Breslin, Chief Operating Officer, added that the government shutdown's impact is cyclical, not a long-term shift, and highlighted significantly reduced new supply projections for the Mid-Atlantic in 2026. For Southern California, he noted its diversified economy and historically low new supply, suggesting internal rotation within regions rather than broad market exits.

Steve Sakwa inquired about AvalonBay's long-term market exposure strategy for Southern California and the Mid-Atlantic, given recent market softness.

Answer

CEO and President Ben Schall confirmed the company's ongoing strategy to reduce exposure in the overall Mid-Atlantic and California, while increasing focus on sub-markets like Northern Virginia. COO Sean Breslin added that the government shutdown's impact is cyclical, not secular, and highlighted projected significant declines in new supply for the Mid-Atlantic in 2026. He also noted Southern California's diversified economy and historically low new supply.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI asked for the reasons behind the asking rent trend leveling off in mid-May and questioned why AvalonBay's bad debt expense appears to be running higher than that of its peers.

Answer

Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin attributed the rent trend moderation to softer-than-anticipated job growth. Regarding bad debt, Breslin explained that AvalonBay's policy is to charge for all amounts due under the lease, including various fees, and pointed to specific challenges from overloaded court systems and regulatory hurdles in the Mid-Atlantic and New York/New Jersey regions.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the specific criteria and checklist used for making 'go/no-go' decisions on new development starts and asked if the company is proactively changing its leasing and renewal strategies in anticipation of potential economic headwinds.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Matthew Birenbaum stated that development decisions are made on a deal-by-deal basis, evaluating project costs, projected NOI, and the transaction market. Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin noted that leasing strategies are adjusted by region, such as hedging for higher occupancy in weaker markets like Los Angeles, but there is no broad, portfolio-wide strategic shift at this time.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI requested the expected renewal rate achievement for November and December and asked about the current level of rent negotiation with residents. He also sought confirmation on the intended use of the company's forward equity proceeds.

Answer

COO Sean Breslin stated that renewal achievement is expected to be in the high 3% range for both November and December. CFO Kevin O'Shea confirmed that the forward equity proceeds are intended to fund the anticipated increase in development starts in the upcoming year and are not expected to be drawn down in the current year.

Steve Sakwa asked for clarification on the fourth-quarter outlook, specifically if November and December trends are expected to mark an improvement from a seasonal low, and requested a reminder of the puts and takes for 2026 growth.

Answer

Bryan Smith, Chief Executive Officer, confirmed that October leasing activity improved over September, indicating momentum into November, which, combined with the lease expiration management initiative, should boost occupancy and position the portfolio for 2026. Chris Lau, Chief Financial Officer, added that the implied 2026 earn-in from blended spreads in H2 2025 is just under 2%, with loss to lease not expected to be a major factor. He referenced John Burns data suggesting market rents could reaccelerate to 1.5%-2% in 2026, noting AMH typically outperforms these estimates.

Steve Sakwa followed up on comments about the fourth quarter, asking for clarification on the seasonal low and whether November/December trends are expected to be better. He also requested a reminder of the puts and takes for 2026 growth, including one-time factors.

Answer

Bryan Smith, Chief Executive Officer, clarified that the seasonal low referred to a delayed pickup in September leasing activity, which improved in October, giving confidence for momentum into November. He expects occupancy to pick up, positioning the portfolio well for the 2026 spring leasing season. Chris Lau, Chief Financial Officer, added that blended spreads in the second half of 2025 imply an earn-in of just under 2% for 2026, and while loss to lease isn't expected to play a major role, market rents are projected to reaccelerate based on external data, with AMH typically outperforming average estimates.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the yield spread between potential acquisitions from homebuilders and AMH's internal development pipeline, and at what point builder acquisitions might slow down the company's own development.

Answer

CEO Bryan Smith clarified that price concessions from builders are mainly in markets where AMH does not have a development program. He noted that builder inventory yields are currently in the high 4% range and would need to improve by approximately 20% to become attractive for volume acquisitions, thus not currently competing with their development strategy.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the pricing gap between acquiring homes from national builders versus AMH's own development pipeline, and at what point the company might shift its strategy to favor acquisitions over development.

Answer

CEO Bryan Smith clarified that the pricing concessions from builders are occurring in markets where AMH does not have a development program. He noted that in their development markets, the builder inventory is of lower quality and location. To significantly increase acquisitions from builders, yields would need to move from the current high-4% range, requiring a price reduction of potentially around 20%.

Steve Sakwa asked about the yield spread between potential homebuilder acquisitions and AMH's own development pipeline, and at what point the company might slow development to favor acquisitions.

Answer

CEO & Trustee Bryan Smith clarified that the most significant price negotiations are occurring in markets where AMH does not have a development program. He stated that for acquisitions to become attractive in volume, asking prices, which currently yield in the high-4% range, would need to see a meaningful move, potentially approaching a 20% reduction.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI asked if AMH is proactively adjusting its leasing strategy due to market uncertainty and inquired about the potential price risk for its 2026 development pipeline from tariffs. He later followed up on bad debt trends.

Answer

CEO Bryan Smith explained that the company is not changing its current leasing strategy due to strong demand but has implemented a lease expiration management initiative to align with peak seasons. He estimated that potential tariffs could have a 2-3% impact on total home costs, primarily affecting the end of 2025 and beyond. In a follow-up, CFO Christopher Lau noted that Q1 bad debt was 1.0%, slightly up year-over-year but down sequentially, and the full-year outlook remains in the low 1% range.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI questioned why bad debt guidance shows little improvement and which markets are most affected. He also asked for the rationale behind pursuing development at a 5.5% yield given current capital costs.

Answer

CFO Chris Lau explained that bad debt is expected to remain in the low 1% range due to slow processing in a few municipalities, with COO Lincoln Palmer specifying Atlanta as a key example. Regarding development, CEO Bryan Smith clarified that the 5.5% is a going-in yield, not a stabilized yield, on high-quality, purpose-built homes that cannot be acquired at these prices. CFO Chris Lau added that the development program is strategically sized to be funded primarily by retained cash and recycled capital, requiring minimal external capital.

Steve Sakwa questioned the ability to materially increase occupancy from the current 95.2% given modest new lease pricing. He also asked for the rationale behind acquiring an older portfolio at a 6% stabilized yield when new developments achieve similar yields.

Answer

COO Bryan Smith expressed confidence in picking up occupancy and building momentum into 2025 due to a recent uptick in leasing activity. On the acquisition, both Bryan Smith and CEO David Singelyn clarified the strategy. They described the development program as a stable, predictable growth foundation, while acquisitions are a supplemental channel. They emphasized this specific portfolio was a unique opportunity to acquire high-quality, under-managed assets, representing a great supplemental investment without changing the core philosophy.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the current earn-in (embedded growth) as the company approaches year-end. He also asked if there were any changes in renewal behavior, or if most of the weakness was concentrated on the new lease side of the business.

Answer

Michael Manelis (COO) clarified that embedded growth for 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025 (around 80 basis points), slightly lower than anticipated 90 days ago due to Q4 deceleration. He noted some hesitation and more back-and-forth in the renewal process in select pockets, but strong resident retention continues, with expected net effective renewal increases around 4.25% for the next several months.

Steve Sakwa asked for an update on the company's earn-in or embedded growth as the year concludes. He also inquired if the observed slowdown in seasonal trends, which is pressuring new lease demand, is also impacting renewal success rates or if weakness is primarily concentrated on the new lease side of the business.

Answer

Michael Manelis, Chief Operating Officer, clarified that embedded growth for 2025 was approximately 80 basis points and expects a similar starting position for 2026, noting some dilution from expansion market assets. Regarding renewals, he observed a slight increase in hesitation and negotiation in select markets but confirmed strong resident retention, anticipating net effective renewal increases around 4.25%.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the outlook for 2026, focusing on the balance between declining new supply and a potentially slowing job market, and also questioned the long-term portfolio strategy regarding the mix between established coastal markets and new expansion markets.

Answer

EVP & COO Michael Manelis stated that the significant reduction in competitive new supply is the key positive factor for 2026, suggesting any job growth will enhance pricing power. President & CEO Mark Parrell reaffirmed the 'all-weather portfolio' strategy, explaining that while coastal markets currently benefit from low supply, the expansion markets offer long-term job growth potential, though their recovery may extend into 2027.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the outlook for 2026, focusing on the balance between declining new supply and a potentially slowing job market. He also asked about the long-term portfolio strategy regarding the mix between established coastal markets and newer expansion markets.

Answer

EVP & COO Michael Manelis stated that the significant reduction in competitive new supply is the key positive for 2026, suggesting any job growth will enhance pricing power. President & CEO Mark Parrell added that the goal remains an 'all-weather portfolio' and that the current mix is performing as expected, with strong coastal markets balancing the slower, supply-impacted expansion markets. He noted the Sunbelt recovery will take time and the company is not on a strict timeline to reach its expansion market allocation targets.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired if Equity Residential is altering its operating strategy, such as sending renewal notices earlier, and asked about any emerging pressures on the expense side.

Answer

COO Michael Manelis confirmed there are no changes to their robust, centralized renewal process, as they feel well-positioned for the leasing season. CFO Bob Garechana reported that expenses are tracking as expected in aggregate, with the benefit from insurance being offset by slight pressures in real estate taxes and utilities, but no significant impact from tariffs on materials or R&M.

Steve Sakwa asked for an update on renewal rates being sent out for the first quarter and inquired about how development yields currently compare to acquisition yields within the company's capital allocation strategy.

Answer

COO Michael Manelis stated that renewal quotes are currently being sent out at approximately 7%, with an expected achievement rate of around 5%, reflecting confidence in their centralized renewal process. CIO Alec Brackenridge addressed capital allocation, noting that in a frozen transaction market, they would target a 6% development yield against a theoretical 5% acquisition cap rate, but acknowledged that achieving this on desirable projects is currently difficult.

Steve Sakwa asked about the outlook for blended leasing spreads in 2025, questioning if they could hold steady or would likely moderate further due to a slowing economy and heavy supply. He also inquired if the ~3% expense growth rate is achievable next year given added costs from the new WiFi program.

Answer

COO Michael Manelis stated that while it's too early for specific 2025 guidance, the setup for leasing spreads feels similar to the start of 2024. CEO Mark Parrell acknowledged that expense growth might be slightly above 3% next year due to the WiFi program and inflation, but affirmed the company would be at the low end of any projected range and would quantify the impact for investors.

Steve Sakwa asked about BXP's strategy for reallocating capital to premier locations, specifically inquiring about opportunities for high-quality assets or development in smaller markets like Seattle and LA, and the long-term outlook if scaling in these markets proves challenging.

Answer

CEO Owen Thomas acknowledged that LA and Seattle are smaller, weaker West Coast markets for BXP, currently lacking near-term development opportunities. He stated that BXP would evaluate acquisition opportunities but recognized the markets' current size and challenges.

Steve Sakwa asked about BXP's strategy for reallocating capital into premier locations, specifically inquiring about the long-term outlook and scaling opportunities in smaller markets like Seattle and LA, and the availability of high-quality acquisition or development deals there.

Answer

Owen Thomas (CEO, BXP Inc) explained that development opportunities are currently limited in LA, Seattle, and San Francisco due to weaker leasing markets and higher vacancy. He noted that while acquisition opportunities are evaluated, BXP remains disciplined on quality and pricing, acknowledging these are smaller markets for the company.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI inquired about the expected unlevered return for the 343 Madison Avenue project and whether the tenants in discussion are new to BXP's portfolio or existing clients.

Answer

Owen Thomas, Chairman & CEO, stated that BXP projects an unlevered cash yield of 7.5% to 8% upon delivery for 343 Madison. He estimated a high single-digit unlevered IRR and a mid-to-high teens levered IRR, depending on the exit cap rate and timing. The source of tenants was not directly addressed in the initial response.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI inquired about the development strategy for 343 Madison, including the pre-leasing approach, the timeline for a go-forward decision, and the targeted yield on the project.

Answer

An executive, likely CEO Owen Thomas, stated the goal is to secure a pre-lease in the 50,000 to 250,000 sq. ft. range, with a final project decision due by the end of July. He expressed confidence due to strong market demand and an 8% target yield. President Douglas Linde and executive Hilary Spann added that there is significant interest from tenants for pre-commitments, driven by the scarcity of high-quality space near Grand Central.

Steve Sakwa asked for clarification on BXP's 2025 lease rollover, including the expected retention ratio and the outlook for new leasing activity on currently vacant space.

Answer

President Douglas Linde explained that retention rates vary based on the size of expiring leases. For 2025, with most large move-outs already known, the focus is on smaller tenants where retention is typically higher. He detailed a 2025 leasing goal of over 4 million square feet, with about 2 million targeting vacant space. Linde emphasized that with significantly lower expirations in 2026 and 2027, this leasing pace should lead to a material improvement in occupancy.

Steve Sakwa questioned how BXP is assessing the pre-leasing risk for the 343 Madison development, particularly given the slower-than-anticipated lease-up at other projects like 360 Park Avenue South.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Owen Thomas explained that the market for 343 Madison, north of 42nd Street, is driven by strong financial and legal services demand. EVP Hilary Spann added that several recent large-scale leases in Midtown proper by tenants like Bloomberg and Ares demonstrate robust demand for premier workplaces, contrasting with the more tech-dominated and slower Midtown South market.

Steve Sakwa asked for more color on the Noy House lease, specifically its rent contribution in the third quarter to help adjust revenues. He also inquired whether the rent for the backfilled space would be a roll-up, roll-down, or flat compared to the prior rent.

Answer

CEO Angela Aman stated that the company does not typically disclose individual tenant rent contributions but noted the 50-60 basis point occupancy impact. She emphasized efforts to re-lease the high-quality space quickly. EVP, Chief Leasing Officer Rob Paratte highlighted strong interest from various sectors, including hospitality and entertainment, due to the space's unique design, existing facilities, and historic studio. He indicated that the rent roll would be deal-specific and hard to predict due to potential capital needs for different uses.

Steve Sakwa asked for more details on the NeueHouse lease, its impact on Q3 occupancy, and the rent contribution, as well as how potential new rents for the space might compare to prior rates.

Answer

Angela Aman (CEO) stated that individual tenant rent contributions are not typically disclosed but noted NeueHouse's 95,000 sq ft departure would impact Q4 occupancy by 50-60 basis points, with overall guidance remaining flat. Rob Paratte (EVP, Chief Leasing Officer) highlighted strong interest from hospitality and entertainment sectors for the highly designed, historic space, emphasizing its unique features. He added that predicting future rent (roll-up, roll-down, flat) is difficult due to varying capital needs depending on the new use.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI asked for details on the 100,000 sq. ft. of leasing activity at KOP2, including tenant type and economics versus underwriting. He also questioned the outlook for 2026 lease expirations and when portfolio occupancy might bottom out.

Answer

CEO Angela Aman confirmed the KOP2 activity involves primarily life science and healthcare tenants. While rents are holding up well, she noted that more capital is required for deals compared to original underwriting. Regarding occupancy, Aman expects a Q3 decline due to redevelopments entering the pool, positive net absorption in Q4 2025, but anticipates some larger vacates in the first half of 2026, making it too early to call an occupancy trough.

Steve Sakwa requested quantification of Kilroy's current leasing pipeline and the specific volume of deals that slipped from Q1 into the beginning of Q2.

Answer

CEO Angela Aman stated that the leasing pipeline grew approximately 15% from the end of Q4 2024. While not providing an absolute size, she highlighted a 40% year-over-year increase in tour activity as a key leading indicator. She quantified the deals that slipped into April as being at least 50,000 to 60,000 square feet.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI sought clarification on the 2026 lease expirations, specifically how a major lease with a subtenant is reflected in the schedule. He also asked about the Flower Mart project, inquiring about the milestones required to continue capitalizing costs and what would trigger the cessation of capitalization.

Answer

Executive Angela Aman clarified that the significant 2026 lease deal is with a subtenant and will not be reflected in the expiration schedule until the new lease commences, though footnotes have been added for transparency. Regarding the Flower Mart, she explained that the focus is on redesigning the project for phased construction and evaluating the mix of uses, with capitalization expected to cease around the beginning of Q4 2025 if development is not warranted by then.

Steve Sakwa sought clarification on large known move-outs for Q4 2024 and any significant known move-outs in 2025 beyond DermTech. He also asked if the three buildings in KOP Phase 2 would have interest capitalization cease simultaneously.

Answer

CEO Angela Aman confirmed the key Q4 move-outs, including Capital One and a Microsoft/LinkedIn lease. For 2025, she identified an additional large lease of about 80,000 sq. ft. expiring in Q1 where a vacate or significant downsize is expected. She also clarified that interest capitalization for KOP 2 will cease for the buildings at roughly the same time, predominantly in Q4 2025, with one building potentially slipping into Q1 2026.

Steve Sakwa asked about the MH rent increase process for the remaining 50% of customers not yet noticed for 2026, and for comments on the decline in MH portfolio occupancy. He also sought broad thoughts on expense containment for the next year, including puts and takes from the current year.

Answer

Paul Seavey, EVP and CFO, explained that the other 50% of MH agreements are CPI-linked or long-term, with January notices typically higher and more Florida-weighted. Patrick Waite, President and COO, clarified that MH occupancy increased in the quarter, moving past hurricane impacts and trending upwards. Paul Seavey also highlighted 2025 benefits from payroll savings (trending flat), a favorable April 2025 insurance renewal (down 6%), and some relief in real estate taxes compared to 2024 increases.

Steve Sakwa asked about the trend of MH rent increases for the remaining 50% of customers not yet noticed for 2026, and commented on the decline in MH portfolio occupancy. He also inquired about the outlook for expense containment in 2026, considering current year's puts and takes.

Answer

Paul Seavey, EVP and CFO, explained that the remaining 50% of MH agreements are linked to CPI or are long-term agreements, with January notices typically higher. Patrick Waite, President and COO, clarified that MH occupancy increased in the quarter, moving past hurricane impacts, and the trend is now towards increasing occupancy. Paul Seavey highlighted 2025 benefits from flat payroll expenses, a favorable 6% reduction in insurance renewal, and some relief in real estate taxes, while noting potential volatility in real estate taxes for 2026.

Steve Sakwa asked if the transient RV business is expected to settle back to pre-COVID revenue levels or if it has a structurally higher floor. He also inquired about the expense growth outlook for 2026, given the favorable 2025 renewal.

Answer

CEO Marguerite Nader described the transient business as a volatile but crucial feeder for the annual business, making it difficult to predict a specific revenue floor. For 2026 expenses, EVP & CFO Paul Seavey noted that key expense lines like utilities, payroll, and R&M have historically faced pressure and remain a focus, especially with potential impacts from tariffs and CPI on wages.

Steve Sakwa asked whether the transient RV business is expected to settle back to pre-COVID revenue levels or establish a new, higher floor. He also inquired about the expense growth outlook for 2026, considering this year's favorable comparisons.

Answer

CEO Marguerite Nader described the transient business as a volatile but crucial feeder for converting customers to the more stable annual segment, making it difficult to predict a new revenue floor. Regarding 2026 expenses, EVP & CFO Paul Seavey acknowledged that key expense lines like utilities, payroll, and R&M have historically faced pressure and that factors like tariffs and CPI are key considerations.

Steve Sakwa asked whether the transient RV business, which is declining from its COVID peak, is expected to settle back to pre-COVID revenue levels or if it now has a structurally higher floor. He also inquired about expense growth comps heading into 2026.

Answer

CEO Marguerite Nader described the transient business as a volatile but crucial feeder for annual customers, making it difficult to predict a specific revenue floor. EVP & CFO Paul Seavey noted that looking ahead to 2026, key expense lines like utilities, payroll, and R&M will continue to face pressure from factors like tariffs and wage inflation.

Steve Sakwa asked whether the transient RV business will settle back to pre-COVID revenue levels or has a new, structurally higher floor, and also inquired about the expense growth outlook for 2026.

Answer

CEO Marguerite Nader described the transient business as a volatile but crucial feeder for annual customers, making a specific revenue floor difficult to predict. EVP & CFO Paul Seavey noted that key expense lines like utilities and payroll have faced pressure and that potential impacts from tariffs and CPI on wages are key considerations for 2026.

Steve Sakwa asked whether the transient RV and Marina business revenue is expected to settle back to pre-COVID levels or if it has a new, higher structural floor. He also inquired about the expense growth outlook for 2026, considering the favorable comparisons in 2025.

Answer

CEO Marguerite Nader described the transient business as a volatile but crucial feeder for the more stable annual business, making it difficult to predict a specific revenue floor. For 2026 expenses, EVP & CFO Paul Seavey noted that key line items like utilities, payroll, and R&M have historically faced pressure, and the company remains focused on potential impacts from inflation and tariffs.

Steve Sakwa asked for more details on the reduced revenue growth guidance for seasonal and transient RVs, questioning the drivers. He also inquired about the decline in home sales during the quarter and the outlook for the rest of the year.

Answer

Paul Seavey, an executive, explained the guidance change reflects current reservation pacing for Q2. Patrick Waite, an executive, specified that while most properties are pacing normally, a small subset in northern markets is seeing demand normalize. Regarding home sales, Patrick Waite attributed the quarterly decline to hurricane after-effects and a mild winter but affirmed the overall demand profile remains strong compared to pre-COVID levels.

Steve Sakwa probed the RV and Marina annual rental income guidance, noting the 5.2% midpoint was below the expected 5.5% rate increase. He also asked for details on the insurance renewal process and cost controls for R&M and payroll.

Answer

Executive Patrick Waite clarified the 5.2% guidance reflects a lower starting occupancy point for 2025 due to higher post-COVID attrition. Executive Paul Seavey added that an insurance growth assumption is included in guidance but not disclosed during active negotiations, and that R&M and payroll expenses are expected to normalize toward CPI-level growth after a favorable 2024.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the absence of share buybacks in Q3 2025, asking if it was due to internal deal activity or an active decision. He also asked CEO Robert Sulentic about the ultimate Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the facilities management business and CBRE's global market share within it.

Answer

CFO Emma Giamartino clarified that the absence of buybacks was not an active decision, reiterating the belief that the share price is undervalued and that buybacks will occur when cash flow is available, while declining to comment on specific M&A pipeline activity. CEO Robert Sulentic explained that CBRE has consistently expanded its TAM in facilities management through acquisitions (e.g., data centers, J&J, DirectLine) and does not believe the company is anywhere near bumping up against its total addressable market.

Steve Sakwa asked for clarification on the absence of stock buybacks in Q3, questioning whether it was due to internal M&A activity or an active decision. He also inquired about the ultimate Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the facilities management business and CBRE's global market share within it.

Answer

CFO Emma Giamartino stated that the absence of buybacks was not an active decision, reiterating the belief that the share price is undervalued and that buybacks occur when cash flow is available, while declining to comment on specific M&A activity. CEO Robert Sulentic explained that the facilities management TAM has consistently expanded through strategic acquisitions and growth in new asset classes like data centers and government work, indicating significant remaining growth potential.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI questioned the outlook for capital markets sales activity given the interest rate environment and inquired about the pace of share buybacks and capital deployment plans for the second half of the year.

Answer

President, CEO, and Chairman Robert Sulentic stated that sales activity is expected to remain strong due to a narrowing bid-ask spread and pent-up demand. CFO Emma Giamartino added that while U.S. sales are strong, Europe is slower. She reiterated that M&A is prioritized over buybacks and that the current guidance includes neither.

Steve Sakwa asked if the 2025 EPS guidance includes potential capital deployment from M&A or buybacks and sought to understand the drivers of strong office leasing growth, specifically volume versus lease term.

Answer

CFO Emma Giamartino confirmed the EPS guidance does not include incremental M&A or buybacks, making any such activity accretive. CEO Bob Sulentic attributed office leasing strength to a broad-based recovery across gateway and other major markets. Emma Giamartino added that the growth was driven by a mix of larger average lease sizes and longer lease terms.

In a follow-up, Steve Sakwa asked for clarification on the flat performance of the loan servicing business during the quarter.

Answer

CFO Emma Giamartino explained that the reported flat result was due to an accounting change. The underlying growth of the loan servicing business was actually 5%, but the reported figure was impacted by the reclassification of some escrow income to the commercial mortgage origination line.

Steve Sakwa asked what factors could trigger a sharp, rather than modest, recovery in the transaction business and questioned whether a higher stock price would temper the company's enthusiasm for share buybacks.

Answer

Chair and CEO Bob Sulentic suggested a sharp recovery would be driven more by buyer-seller psychology than just interest rates, potentially catalyzed by thought-leading investors making significant moves. CFO Emma Giamartino stated that the current stock valuation does not temper their interest in buybacks and that they would consider more repurchases, believing the stock trades at a significant discount to its intrinsic value.

Steve Sakwa asked about the activity from big tech firms, particularly those driven by AI, and how SL Green evaluates large public M&A deals versus single-asset acquisitions like Park Avenue Tower.

Answer

Steve M. Durels, EVP and Director of Leasing and Real Property, confirmed that tech is back in a big way, driven by AI, leading to significant demand and rising rents, especially in Midtown South. Marc Holliday, Chairman and CEO, explained that SL Green's acquisition strategy involves a relative analysis of capital deployment across various opportunities, emphasizing discipline and targeting deals with strong relative value, such as Park Avenue Tower's attractive cap rate and levered returns.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the slight dip in second-quarter occupancy, the timing of the leasing pipeline, and any known move-outs that could impact the company's ability to reach its 93.2% year-end occupancy target.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Marc Holliday dismissed quarter-to-quarter fluctuations for a 30 million square foot portfolio, reiterating confidence in the annual guidance and the strength of the one-million-square-foot leasing pipeline. EVP & Director of Leasing Steven Durels added that the dip was primarily due to an unbudgeted tenant default and that strong leasing in redevelopment properties, which are not in the same-store pool, showcases the portfolio's true strength.

Steve Sakwa questioned the feasibility of securing a new high-quality development site in Midtown amid macro uncertainty. He also requested an update on the timeline and status of the downstate casino license plan.

Answer

CEO Marc Holliday asserted that underwriting a 5-7 year development project is 'completely de-linked' from short-term market volatility, emphasizing strong long-term confidence in the NYC market. On the casino license, Brett Herschenfeld described the process as 'full speed ahead,' with an expected license submission on June 27 and a potential year-end award.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired if market tightness is accelerating renewal discussions for future expirations and asked for an update on the search for a new development site and its expected return profile.

Answer

Marc Holliday, Executive, stated that while tenants are not yet anxious, they are becoming aware that the favorable leasing market is ending, which will soon shift leverage to landlords. He added that for a new trophy development, expected levered returns would be in the low teens, consistent with historical norms for prime assets.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI inquired about the transaction market, asking for a comparison of opportunities between the DPE (Debt and Preferred Equity) business and direct asset purchases. He also questioned if the lower-than-modeled real estate taxes and operating expenses were normalized or included one-time items.

Answer

CEO Marc Holliday explained that both debt and equity liquidity are returning to the market, citing the $5.3 billion in recent SASB deals as a positive indicator. He noted that while SL Green is tracking direct equity deals, the company's focus and capital allocation will be more heavily weighted towards DPE, which is typical coming out of a downturn. Executive Matthew Diliberto addressed the expense question, stating there was nothing unusual in the quarter and attributed the lower costs to the team's effective management of real estate taxes and operating expenses.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI questioned the drivers behind the forecasted revenue decline in the second half of the year and sought details on the company's capital deployment strategy, including return hurdles and reasons for cost savings on recent development projects.

Answer

CEO George Chappelle attributed the conservative revenue outlook to pricing pressure and a combination of demand headwinds like interest rates and inflation, leading them to remove the typical seasonal lift from forecasts. He and President Robert Chambers affirmed their commitment to a 10-12% return hurdle on low-risk developments, citing enhanced procurement and local incentives as key drivers for recent project cost savings.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI questioned the widening spread between economic and physical occupancy, its potential risk to future renewals, and the lease-up expectations and costs for development projects.

Answer

CEO George Chappelle and President of Americas Rob Chambers defended the occupancy spread as intentional, providing customers with valuable flexibility. They highlighted that fixed commitment revenue grew to their 60% target, with these long-term contracts lacking annual resets. On development, they noted many projects are strategic, not purely demand-driven, and final payments are tied to completion, explaining the remaining spend.

Steve Sakwa asked about Americold's 2025 occupancy target, questioning how to reconcile the flat guidance with the widening gap between economic and physical occupancy. He also inquired about the conservatism of the 12% service margin target and its long-term potential.

Answer

CEO George Chappelle explained that while the occupancy guide is flat, they anticipate a return to normal seasonal trends. President of Americas Rob Chambers added that the gap between economic and physical occupancy is a natural result of increasing fixed-commitment contracts. Regarding service margins, Chappelle noted that the >12% target represents an expansion from the recast 2025 same-store pool's baseline and, while potentially conservative, depends on business mix and throughput volumes.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the development outlook, asking how Camden is adjusting its strategy for new starts in light of economic uncertainty and what development yields are being targeted.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Ric Campo stated that Camden is more cautious on new starts due to market uncertainty, particularly in weaker submarkets like downtown Nashville. While development remains part of the long-term strategy, they are targeting yields of 5.75% to 6% and are seeing some relief from flattening construction costs. He noted these factors will contribute to lower overall supply in the coming years.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about Camden's current underwriting standards for new developments, specifically focusing on assumptions for construction costs, tariff impacts, future rents, and expenses.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ric Campo explained that they are underwriting a 2-3% cost increase related to tariffs, which is being partially offset by subcontractors shrinking their margins as new construction starts decline. For underwriting, they assume flat-ish rents for the current year, followed by better-than-normal growth next year and outsized revenue growth in 2027-2028, reflecting a strong future rental market.

An analyst on behalf of Steve Sakwa requested more details on the 2025 transaction guidance, which includes $750 million each of acquisitions and dispositions, asking about timing, cap rates, and the profile of buyers and sellers.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Richard Campo explained that the bid-ask spread in the transaction market is narrowing. He noted that sustained higher interest rates are pressuring sellers, while buyers are underwriting more aggressive future rent growth, making deals more viable. Campo anticipates a capital recycling strategy similar to the one executed post-GFC, focusing on selling older assets to fund the acquisition and development of newer properties.

Steve Sakwa asked about the lease-up velocity for projects currently in development and the significant cost increases for future starts, questioning if the yields still meet return thresholds.

Answer

President and CFO Alexander Jessett explained that the lease-up pace is in line with expectations. Single-family rental communities lease slower (10-15 units/month) than traditional multifamily, while the Durham project is leasing at a strong 25 units/month. Regarding cost increases, he stated that after a full analysis and updated pricing, the projected yields for the Nashville and Denver projects still work, which is why they are planned for 2025 and early 2026 starts.

Steve Sakwa questioned the leasing progress at the Neuhof project in Nashville and asked which markets Cousins Properties finds most promising for potential new construction projects.

Answer

EVP and Chief Investment Officer Kennedy Hicks reported strong residential leasing at Neuhof and a recent pickup in office tour activity. President and CEO Colin Connolly identified Austin's Domain, Uptown Dallas, and potentially Atlanta as key areas where market rents are approaching levels that could justify new development, driven by strong demand and limited supply.

Steve Sakwa requested more detail on the leasing pipeline by market and industry, with a specific interest in tech demand. He also asked about the strategy for activating new development, particularly in Austin, and the required yield compared to acquisitions.

Answer

EVP of Operations Richard Hickson described the pipeline as diversified but overweight in legal, with strong activity in Atlanta and Charlotte. President and CEO Colin Connolly added that new development is weighed against acquisitions, but Austin shows unique potential for a new start sooner than expected due to the Domain project being nearly 100% leased.

Speaking on behalf of Steve Sakwa, an analyst asked about leasing tour activity for the Neuhoff office project and inquired about the key factors that would push the full-year 2025 guidance toward the high or low end of its range.

Answer

EVP and CIO Kennedy Hicks reported positive market feedback and late-stage lease negotiations at Neuhoff, noting that tenants who don't sign typically seek a lower-cost product. CFO Gregg Adzema identified interest rates as the largest variable for guidance, stating the midpoint assumes no rate cuts in 2025. He also mentioned the refinancing of a $250 million note as another factor.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI inquired about the use of 1031 exchange proceeds, including the volume of expected acquisitions and any tax implications from not fully deploying the funds. He also asked about the performance of the transient RV business and the specific strategies used to mitigate its recent softness.

Answer

EVP & CFO Fernando Castro-Caratini confirmed there is no expected adverse tax impact from releasing $431 million from the 1031 exchange accounts, noting the company has until October to close on approximately $565 million of identified assets. President John McLaren addressed the transient RV business, stating that while headwinds exist due to successful conversions to annual sites, the company is managing the segment by flexing operating expenses and surgically targeting revenue opportunities, keeping performance in line with revised guidance.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI inquired about the progress of the G&A cost savings plan and the potential for further efficiencies, and also asked for the real property NOI guidance figure.

Answer

Executive John McLaren expressed satisfaction with the progress on the $15-$20 million expense savings plan, noting that G&A savings are embedded in guidance and property-level savings are expected to expand. He highlighted a focus on fundamentals like the sales funnel and centralized procurement. Executive Fernando Castro-Caratini clarified that specific real property NOI guidance was not provided because the same-property portfolio now constitutes over 99% of the total.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI asked about the drivers for new lease pricing, which has been slower than renewals, and whether an acceleration is expected in 2026 as new supply moderates.

Answer

President Charles Young acknowledged that new lease rates are facing pressure from build-to-rent supply in key markets. He stated that while the peak of deliveries has passed, absorption will continue through the second half of the year, setting up for a better 2026. He emphasized the strength in renewals, which constitute over two-thirds of the business and hit 5% growth in July.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI asked about the drivers needed to accelerate new lease pricing and whether management expects an improvement in 2026 as new supply moderates.

Answer

President Charles Young acknowledged that new lease rates are facing pressure from build-to-rent supply in key markets. He stated that while the peak of deliveries has passed, absorption will continue through the second half of the year, setting up for a better 2026. Young emphasized that the strength in renewals, which constitute over three-quarters of their business and hit 5% growth in July, provides a strong counterbalance.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI followed up on acquisitions, asking about the volume of deal flow, pricing expectations, and the capital allocation strategy for funding new investments.

Answer

CEO Dallas Tanner stated that while deal flow volume is increasing, which they hope will lead to better pricing, their strategy remains focused on recycling capital from dispositions into new homes at a target 6% yield on cost. He noted that with development costs not decreasing, the focus is on finding partners willing to accept more accretive margins. CFO Jonathan Olsen's perspective was also referenced regarding the current difficulty of using the bond market for long-term debt capital.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI asked about the capital deployment landscape, specifically how the yield expectations on new home purchases from builders are changing amidst interest rate volatility.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Scott Eisen stated that the company is pleased with the deal flow from builders and is still targeting acquisition yields around a 6% cap rate. He mentioned that year-to-date, Invitation Homes has closed on about 1,600 homes for $560 million. Eisen added that dialogues with builders are strategic and long-term (3-9 months out), and it's too soon to tell if there will be a material change in opportunities, but they remain happy with what they are seeing.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about changes to development underwriting and trends in construction costs, as well as the outlook for real estate tax expenses.

Answer

President and CEO A. Bradley Hill confirmed no significant changes to their conservative underwriting, with construction costs currently flat. EVP and CFO A. Clay Holder suggested that favorable real estate tax trends could be a tailwind going forward, as municipalities factor in recent periods of negative NOI growth during revaluations.

Steve Sakwa asked for clarification on the company's debt financing assumptions, specifically questioning where MAA's 10-year bond spreads are currently trading relative to treasuries.

Answer

Tim Argo, EVP and Chief Strategy Officer, responded by referencing their December 2024 bond issuance, which achieved a record-low spread of 78 basis points. He estimated that given movements in the treasury market since then, the spread has likely widened slightly but remains in the 80 to 85 basis point range.

Asked for more details on development opportunities, given their high yields, and the level of discussion with national retailers for new projects.

Answer

The company sees continued strong demand from best-in-class grocers for new stores. They are leveraging their expertise and capital to partner on these challenging but rewarding ground-up development projects, expecting to start over $250 million this year with yields around 7%.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI asked for more details on development opportunities, including yields and ongoing discussions with national retailers for new projects.

Answer

West Region President and CIO Nick Wibbenmeyer confirmed strong and active demand from best-in-class grocers looking to expand. He stated that Regency expects to start $250 million or more in new projects in 2025, with a majority being ground-up developments. He anticipates maintaining development yields in the 7%-plus range, leveraging Regency's relationships, expertise, and capital.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the pipeline for high-yield development opportunities and the nature of discussions with national retailers for new projects.

Answer

CIO Nick Wibenmeyer confirmed strong and active demand from best-in-class grocers for new physical locations. He stated that Regency expects to start $250 million or more in new projects in 2025, with a majority in ground-up developments, and anticipates maintaining development yields in the 7%-plus range due to the company's expertise, relationships, and access to capital.

Speaking for Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI, Manas asked for more detail on the credit loss assumptions, specifically how conservative the allowance for bankruptcy-related lost rent is and what underlying assumptions are being made.

Answer

CFO Michael Mas described a ground-up analysis where the team evaluates the rent roll on a tenant-by-tenant basis to handicap the likelihood of lease rejections. He emphasized that they are not assuming all at-risk leases will be rejected and that the guidance represents a practical outlook on a factor that is largely outside of the company's control, though they hope to outperform it.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI asked about ESRT's leasing strategy, questioning if high occupancy is creating tenant urgency and leading to earlier renewals. He also inquired about the company's capital allocation strategy, specifically how it weighs new investments against share buybacks given the current stock valuation.

Answer

EVP of Real Estate Thomas Durels responded that while the team is focused on leasing remaining vacancy, they are also proactively pursuing early renewals for 2026 and 2027 expirations, noting that brokers are advising tenants to act quickly. On capital allocation, Chairman & CEO Anthony Malkin emphasized that the primary focus is on the existing portfolio, with a high bar for new investments. President Christina Chiu added that share buybacks remain part of the equation and that the company maintains discipline, seeking higher returns for new investments funded by the balance sheet versus recycled capital.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the current leasing environment, asking for color on how conversations with different tenant types have evolved recently and about the long-term run rate for capital expenditures once the portfolio reaches a stabilized occupancy.

Answer

EVP of Real Estate, Thomas Durels, stated that there has been no change or pause in lease negotiations over the last 60 days, with a strong pipeline across TAMI, consumer products, and professional services. EVP and CFO, Stephen Horn, detailed that while TI spend will remain elevated in the near term due to past leasing success, leasing commissions and building improvements are expected to decrease, with Q1's building improvement spend of $5 million serving as a good go-forward run rate.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the leasing dynamics driving early renewals and asked for the ultimate lease percentage target for the portfolio. He also questioned the flat year-over-year guidance for the Observatory's NOI, seeking clarity on potential upside drivers like pricing or visitor volume.

Answer

EVP of Real Estate Thomas Durels highlighted a strong leasing pipeline and three years of positive absorption, projecting the Manhattan portfolio could exceed 95% leased. Chairman and CEO Anthony Malkin explained the conservative Observatory guidance is due to macro factors, including a strong U.S. dollar and significantly reduced airline capacity from China, while noting their focus remains on maximizing net revenue per customer.

Steve Sakwa inquired about tenant renewal dynamics, asking if there was increased urgency from tenants given market tightening, and separately questioned the drivers needed to return the Observatory to positive visitor growth.

Answer

Executive Vice President Thomas Durels confirmed that ESRT is actively managing early renewals, citing the HNTB lease extension as an example. He noted that tenants recognize there are fewer high-quality options, which drives demand for ESRT's modernized and well-located properties. Chairman and CEO Anthony Malkin addressed the Observatory, explaining that while visitor volume was softer across NYC in Q3, higher net revenue per visitor drove strong NOI. He stated that future growth would follow overall tourism recovery and noted a doubling of independent travelers from China, off a low base.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the recent board change and CIO departure, the impact of tough comps on back-half guidance, and the future strategy for dispositions given the rapid progress.

Answer

CEO Mahbod Nia explained the CIO departure was a strategic decision and the investment team remains strong. He noted the departing board member remains a supportive shareholder. CFO Amanda Lombard detailed that guidance accounts for potential insurance and tax increases in the second half. CEO Nia added that while the transaction market is challenging, Veris will continue to opportunistically sell non-core assets and land to further reduce leverage.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the progression of blended lease spreads through the first quarter and into April, renewal rate expectations for the upcoming months, the drivers behind demand, particularly from out-of-state and Manhattan, and the outlook for completing the company's asset sale program in the current capital markets environment.

Answer

Chief Operating Officer Anna Malhari detailed the acceleration in blended lease spreads, noting they exceeded 4% in March and reached 4.8% in April, with renewal offers for the second quarter settling in the mid-single digits. Chief Executive Officer Mahbod Nia added that while move-ins from Manhattan remain consistent at 20-25%, there has been a recent increase in out-of-state move-ins, likely tied to return-to-office mandates. Regarding asset sales, Nia expressed confidence in the team's proven ability to execute on its strategic plan despite market volatility.

Steve Sakwa asked about the specific market conditions that would lead the Board to pursue a larger strategic transaction and requested more details on the planned $300-$500 million in asset sales, particularly concerning land values and potential buyer profiles.

Answer

CEO Mahbod Nia explained that the Board and Strategic Review Committee continuously evaluate a combination of factors, including economic outlook, interest rates, and capital flows, to determine the best path to maximize shareholder value. He noted that current market dislocations make larger transactions challenging. Regarding the asset sales, Mr. Nia clarified that the plan includes $100-$130 million of the company's land bank, with $45 million already under contract, and that these sales are a primary catalyst for deleveraging.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI inquired about the competitive dynamics with the New York City market, asking for evidence of rent fatigue in the New Jersey portfolio. He also requested the total capital budget for the Liberty Towers renovation and asked about the progress on simplifying joint venture structures.

Answer

CEO Mahbod Nia explained that Veris's portfolio continues to benefit from strong NYC rent growth, offering a significant value proposition with larger units at a discount and limited new local supply. He stated the Liberty Towers renovation budget is approximately $30 million over 3-4 years. Regarding JVs, he noted that simplification is a goal but complex, with no immediate updates.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI asked for more color on the cadence of leasing throughout the second quarter, seeking to understand the velocity from April through June and into July.

Answer

President Dan Letter explained that while leasing volume was down 20% from normal in early April amid tariff uncertainty, activity accelerated through May and June, finishing the quarter down only 10% from normal. Chris Caton, MD of Global Strategy & Analytics, added that the company looks at a wide range of metrics, including the leasing pipeline and build-to-suit dialogues, for a complete picture.

In a follow-up question, Steve Sakwa asked for clarification on the level of leasing activity assumed in the company's base case guidance, given the recent 20% slowdown.

Answer

Timothy Arndt, CFO, did not provide a specific leasing volume number. Instead, he explained that the potential for slower activity is reflected in their guidance through the assumption of a more severe and sustained drop in occupancy. He emphasized that the company's stress test scenarios are designed to cover this uncertainty.

Steve Sakwa asked about two specific trends: the larger sequential drop in occupancy for smaller spaces (under 250k sq. ft.) and the demand dynamics in Southern California, where the leased percentage increased.

Answer

Chris Caton, Managing Director, provided a positive medium-term outlook for Southern California, citing it as a major consumption hub with high barriers to new supply. He noted short-term demand is better in the Inland Empire than L.A. Dan Letter, President, added that the occupancy drop in smaller spaces is not unusual, as that size category historically tends to have lower occupancy than larger spaces.

Steve Sakwa asked about the impact of the tariff situation on retailer conversations and leasing activity, and how sales assumptions have changed in the last three months.

Answer

CEO David Simon explained that tariffs have had a minimal direct impact on leasing, affecting only four deals from one European retailer, with overall demand remaining strong. He noted that predicting sales is difficult due to inventory uncertainty from potential China tariffs, which is why the company is guiding towards the midpoint of its range despite a solid start to the year. He emphasized that retailers are looking long-term and are hopeful for stabilization.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI asked about the evolution of leasing discussions and pricing power given high occupancy levels, and questioned why 2025 NOI growth guidance is 'at least 3%' when the company has surpassed 4% for the last three years.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Simon explained the 3% guidance is conservative as it assumes flat retail sales, which impacts overage rent. He noted that 25% of 2024 leasing was new deals, reflecting a strategy of improving tenant mix rather than simple 'pricing power'. He also highlighted growth opportunities in 'B' malls and a goal to exceed the peak 2014 occupancy of 97.1%.

Steve Sakwa asked about Simon Property Group's strategy for managing its lease expiration schedule and whether the company is experiencing increased pricing power, given strong leasing momentum and occupancy rates exceeding 96%.

Answer

David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President, explained that the company's primary focus is on improving the merchandise mix across the portfolio rather than simply maximizing rent. He stated that while favorable supply and demand dynamics and high construction costs provide a positive backdrop, the main goal is to enhance property quality for long-term growth. He downplayed the term 'pricing power,' emphasizing a more holistic, balanced approach to remerchandising.

Steve Sakwa asked for more detail on the pace of leasing for tenants over 10,000 square feet and inquired about the drivers of the multifamily portfolio's strong performance, specifically questioning the roles of pricing, rent growth, and occupancy gains.

Answer

Stuart McElhinney noted strong, diverse demand for larger leases, which President and CEO Jordan Kaplan added was key to achieving positive absorption. Regarding multifamily, Kaplan explained that while asking rents haven't changed post-fire due to regulatory monitoring, the portfolio is exceptionally full, and revenue is growing as tenants roll from older, lower rents to the current market rates.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore Inc. requested insight into the economics of the new Westwood acquisition, asking about stabilized yields or IRRs for the combined office and residential project. He also asked how the new multi-tenant rents at the redeveloped Studio Plaza would compare to the prior Warner Bros. rent.

Answer

President and CEO Jordan Kaplan, while noting his dislike for cap rates as a metric, stated the Westwood acquisition was purchased at a 'little over a 10%' going-in cap rate and is expected to yield 'over 10%' upon stabilization of the combined office and residential project. Regarding Studio Plaza, he expressed strong satisfaction with early leasing activity but did not provide specific rent comparisons.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI questioned the sustainability of the high new leasing volume seen in the quarter and whether it's sufficient to consistently drive occupancy higher. He also requested an update on the Barrington Plaza redevelopment, including the insurance claim status and project timeline.

Answer

President and CEO Jordan Kaplan reiterated that the current leasing pipeline looks good but was hesitant to extrapolate that into a full-year prediction, emphasizing that future lease roll is favorable. Regarding Barrington Plaza, Kaplan stated the project is nearly ready for permits, with construction hoped to begin in 2025. He noted the company is in 'extreme disagreement' with its insurer over a significant claim, which will take time to resolve.

Steve Sakwa asked for an assessment of the Nashville center's performance since its opening and questioned the strategy behind the Howell asset sale and plans for the lower-tier portfolio.

Answer

President and CEO Stephen Yalof explained that new centers like Nashville take time to mature and that they are actively refining the tenant mix. He noted the Howell sale was due to the asset no longer fitting Tanger's strategy of focusing on national, high-credit tenants, a situation he described as unique within the portfolio. He stated there are no current plans for further dispositions of that nature.

Speaking on behalf of Steve Sakwa, an analyst asked about the 2025 lease expiration schedule, the status of renewal conversations, and whether any significant move-outs could impact the company's high retention rate.

Answer

President & CEO Stephen Yalof responded that there are no major risks to speak of. He explained that the retention rate has been strategically managed downward to capitalize on the significant rent spread upside from re-tenanting spaces, which allows Tanger to upgrade its tenant mix with new, high-demand brands like Sephora and Ulta to attract a broader customer base.

Steve Sakwa asked how a major cancellation of a U.S. pork order by China might impact the U.S. system and potentially increase occupancy. He also questioned if economic uncertainty could create more M&A opportunities and affect investment hurdles.

Answer

CEO W. Lehmkuhl acknowledged that such trade disruptions could create upside for occupancy, as displaced product would need to be stored domestically or rerouted. He noted customers are adept at managing these issues. On M&A, he agreed that uncertainty can create opportunities as customers rethink supply chains, and Lineage continuously evaluates these based on risk-adjusted returns and its cost of capital.

Steve Sakwa inquired about current pricing trends for acquisitions and how Lineage's own cost of capital is influencing its approach to new deal pricing.

Answer

CFO Robert Crisci acknowledged that the challenged market has affected both public and private valuations. He emphasized that Lineage seeks the best risk-adjusted returns and that its strong balance sheet, lower cost of capital, and industry leadership provide a competitive advantage. The company is prepared to capitalize on any market dislocations to drive shareholder value.

Steve Sakwa followed up on the Iowa data center development, asking if the timeline to secure power has been extended and if this uncertainty dampens enthusiasm for similar speculative land acquisitions.

Answer

President and CEO Stephen E. Budorick confirmed the timeline for securing power has elongated from an initial two-year hope to a potential three-to-four-year reality. He acknowledged this experience has tempered enthusiasm for future land acquisitions without having clear visibility on power availability beforehand, given the overwhelming demand utilities are currently facing.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the Des Moines land acquisition, focusing on the timeline for infrastructure and construction, the leasing process with the primary tenant, and the long-term ownership strategy. He also asked about the potential for more opportunistic acquisitions like 3900 Rogers Road and how their yields compare to development yields.

Answer

President and CEO Stephen E. Budorick outlined that infrastructure work for the Des Moines project is planned for 2025-2026, with initial deliveries expected in 2027 or 2028. He stated the company intends to retain 100% ownership, using joint ventures only as a financing mechanism if development outpaces self-funding capacity. Budorick noted that while a few more opportunistic deals might be possible, they benchmark acquisition yields against the same targets as pre-leased developments.

Steve Sakwa asked for a breakdown of the leasing pipeline across the operating portfolio and key development projects like Uptown ATX, and inquired about the economics of the 300 Delaware office-to-residential conversion.

Answer

Executive Vice President Jerry Sweeney detailed the pipeline strength, noting the operating portfolio is at 1.7-1.8 million sq. ft., with specific updates on progress at 3025 JFK, Uptown ATX, and 3151. Regarding 300 Delaware, he stated the NOI loss from the conversion is minimal as they had already halted capital investment. The project, potentially starting in late 2026, targets a 7.5% yield, with the primary driver being the unviability of continuing it as an office building.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI questioned the delays in finalizing leases for development projects like 3151 Market and Uptown ATX, asking about the reasons for the holdup and whether any prospects had been lost. He also inquired about the confidence in achieving projected cash yields and whether pricing or timing was the primary issue.

Answer

Executive Jerry Sweeney stated that no major prospects have been lost to competitors; the delays are due to protracted timelines as tenants act cautiously amidst macro uncertainty. He noted a positive trend in tenants solidifying their return-to-work policies, which is helping advance discussions. Sweeney and EVP of Operations George D. Johnstone both affirmed it's a timing issue, not a pricing one. Sweeney added that while TI costs might be higher, they are being offset by securing longer lease terms, keeping overall returns in line with expectations.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the source of tenant demand in the Austin market, specifically for the 600,000 sq. ft. pipeline at Uptown ATX, and asked for the cap rates on recent and planned dispositions. He also followed up on the apartment lease-up velocity in Philadelphia and the potential for FFO dilution in 2025 due to development projects coming online.

Answer

Executive Jerry Sweeney and Executive Vice President of Operations George Johnstone explained that the Austin pipeline primarily consists of existing in-market tenants looking to expand. Mr. Sweeney stated the blended cash and GAAP cap rate for the dispositions is expected to be around 8%. He clarified that the Philadelphia apartment project leased approximately 14 units per month and acknowledged a transitional earnings impact in 2025 as development projects stabilize, before a significant FFO uplift.

Speaking for Steve Sakwa, an analyst asked if any parts of the 'Path Forward' plan were progressing slower than expected, what the biggest risk for 2025 was, and whether higher tenant improvement costs would increase near-term CapEx.

Answer

President and CEO Jackson Hsieh stated that higher-than-expected landlord work and TI costs were a 'negative surprise' and that a key risk is potential delays in the development pipeline. He confirmed that achieving higher leasing volumes with more new tenants will theoretically lead to higher capital costs in 2025 and 2026. CFO Daniel Swanstrom added this spending is more front-loaded than initially planned.

On behalf of Steve Sakwa, an analyst asked if any areas of the 'Path Forward' plan were progressing slower than expected, what the biggest execution risk is for 2025, and how to think about the trajectory of CapEx.

Answer

President and CEO Jackson Hsieh identified that anticipated landlord work and tenant allowance (TA) costs were higher than expected, which was a 'negative surprise.' He also cited potential delays in the development pipeline as a key risk. CFO Daniel Swanstrom added that the higher CapEx spend is expected to be concentrated in 2025 and 2026 before leveling off, rather than being spread smoothly over the plan's horizon.

Steve Sakwa asked how leasing discussions are changing with the portfolio over 96% leased and about the strategy for pricing space. He later asked for more detail on the quarterly FFO guidance cadence, particularly the sequential drop from Q4 to Q1.

Answer

CEO Donald Wood stated that high occupancy provides leverage to secure better rent, rent bumps, and crucial control provisions in leases. For the follow-up, EVP & CFO Daniel Guglielmone attributed the Q1 FFO dip to seasonality, including typical post-holiday occupancy drops, higher snow removal expenses, and the cessation of COVID-era deferral collections.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI inquired about the current pricing environment and the nature of leasing conversations with both small shop and big-box retailers.

Answer

EVP, Eastern Region President Wendy Seher responded that demand continues to exceed supply, giving Federal Realty significant pricing power. She noted that strong tenant sales (e.g., over $900/sq ft for QSRs) support rent growth. Beyond base rent, she highlighted success in securing higher contractual rent bumps and, importantly, limiting restrictive lease clauses and controls, leading to more favorable overall lease terms.

Steve Sakwa asked about the pace of leasing activity, noting reports from peers of a pickup post-election. He sought to understand what STAG has observed and if there's a difference in demand between the existing portfolio and the development pipeline.

Answer

CEO William Crooker confirmed a 'pretty material uptick' in tours and inquiries to start the year, describing it as broad-based across markets like Greenville, Spartanburg, and the Sunbelt. He stated that the current activity level is the highest seen in approximately 12 months and that both new builds and existing buildings are seeing strong demand.

Asked for details on the leasing momentum and timing at Penn 2, the competitive dynamics, and the rationale for raising the yield. He also inquired about the specific rents being achieved and later asked about any unique accounting considerations for the 770 Broadway lease.

Answer

Management stated that Penn 2 is a top choice for large tenants, with a lease out for 330,000 sq ft and an LOI for another major headquarters. They have raised rents across the building. Regarding the 770 Broadway lease, management declined to provide specifics before the official announcement but assured all necessary details would be released.

Asked for clarification on the 770 Broadway transaction, details on the PENN2 leasing pipeline, and the earnings outlook for 2025.

Answer

Management declined to comment on the 770 Broadway deal due to confidentiality. The PENN2 pipeline is strong with a diverse mix of tenants including tech, fashion, and legal. The 2025 earnings outlook is still preliminary due to many moving parts, but the assumption of earnings bottoming in 2024 remains.

Asked for details on the 2 million sq ft leasing pipeline, upcoming 2024 lease expirations including Meta, the delayed stabilization of PENN 2, the G&A outlook for 2024, and the status of the 280 Park Avenue refinancing.

Answer

The leasing pipeline includes PENN 1 and PENN 2. A 275,000 sq ft Meta lease at 770 Broadway will expire in June. PENN 2 stabilization was pushed to 2026 to be realistic, but the yield calculation remains unchanged. G&A is expected to decrease in 2024 as a one-time development fee item from 2023 will not recur. The 280 Park refinancing is a complex CMBS loan workout, but they are making good progress toward a resolution.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI requested commentary on the pricing of Q4 acquisitions and the current capital flow environment, specifically asking about the level of unlevered IRRs for industrial assets today.

Answer

Executive Marshall Loeb detailed that the Q4 acquisitions had a blended straight-line rent yield just above 6%, with a stabilized yield in the mid-7s, which he considered attractive compared to a market where cap rates tightened significantly in H2 2024. He expressed caution about relying on 10-year unlevered IRRs due to their speculative nature, preferring to focus on near-term mark-to-market potential and cash returns.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI asked about Kimco's appetite for ground-up retail development, given the tight supply and retailers' need for growth.

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COO David Jamieson responded that ground-up development is primarily occurring in second and third-ring suburbs, not Kimco's core first-ring markets where rents don't yet justify new construction costs. CEO Conor Flynn added that this lack of new supply provides confidence in their credit loss reserve, as retailers have few options beyond backfilling second-generation space from bankrupt tenants.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI asked about retention expectations for 2025 lease expirations, any large known move-outs, and clarified if the guided 100 basis point occupancy decline applied to the same-store or total portfolio.

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COO Laura Clark explained the guided occupancy decline is primarily driven by longer projected downtime (6.5 months vs. 5 months in 2024) and that 70% of this impact is from four specific tenants. CFO Mike Fitzmaurice added that approximately $20 million in NOI will go offline for redevelopments, impacting Q1 occupancy. He then confirmed the 100 basis point decline applies specifically to the same-property portfolio.

Steve Sakwa inquired about the sentiment around new development from the NMHC conference and asked for clarification on the key drivers and risks within the 2025 expense growth guidance, particularly for personnel and real estate taxes.

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CFO & CIO Joe Fisher acknowledged industry optimism for 2026-27 fundamentals but noted that a lack of LP equity is constraining new development starts. CEO Tom Toomey added that capital currently favors buying below replacement cost. On expenses, COO Mike Lacy explained that the elevated 2024 personnel cost was due to a one-time CARS refund, with 2025 returning to a normal run rate. Fisher added that real estate tax growth reflects regional variations, with some appeal wins in 2024 but pressure in markets like Boston and Nashville.

Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI asked about the narrow spread between new and renewal lease rates compared to peers and questioned why other income growth is guided at only 10 basis points, while peers see more from initiatives like bulk Wi-Fi.

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Executive Angela Kleiman attributed the narrow lease spread to Essex's operating strategy of pricing renewals close to market rates to optimize total revenue. Executive Barb Pak explained that other income growth is muted by the normalization of outsized lease installation fees from 2024 and the company being in a piloting phase for new initiatives, with potential benefits expected in 2026.

Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI asked for color on the cap rate pricing for recent acquisitions and dispositions, and about the company's current perspective on starting new development projects.

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Executive Rylan Burns detailed that JV buyouts were executed at attractive yields in the high-4s, a significant discount to replacement cost. A separate portfolio acquisition was in the low-5s cap rate range, while a disposition was at an approximate 5 cap. On development, he stated that while no new projects have started in five years, they are 'getting closer' as market conditions like falling hard costs make returns more feasible.

Steve Sakwa asked about Paramount's capital deployment strategy, questioning how the company balances new acquisitions against its current valuation and share buybacks. He also inquired about the specific needs of AI tenants in San Francisco and whether Paramount's portfolio is positioned to capture this demand.

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Chairman, CEO, and President Albert Behler stated that share buybacks remain a leverage-neutral option. For acquisitions, he emphasized that any deal would involve strategic partners, requiring a 'very, very limited' equity commitment from PGRE while targeting double-digit returns through fees and equity returns. EVP, Head of Real Estate Peter Brindley addressed the AI demand, noting that these companies are often new to the market, are taking sublet space, and are helping stabilize the market. He believes Paramount's portfolio, particularly its built-out spaces, is well-positioned to appeal to these fast-moving tenants.