Steven Wieczynski

Steven Wieczynski inquired about concerns regarding Caribbean capacity, pricing actions, specific performance by brand/itinerary in the Caribbean, and whether the 2026 yield guidance of 2.5% fits the company's 'moderate yield growth' profile.

Answer

Jason Liberty, Chairman and CEO, stated that despite industry capacity increases, Royal Caribbean Group sees strong demand and higher pricing in the Caribbean across all three brands due to superior ships, destinations, and loyalty. He confirmed that the 2.5% yield growth is within their typical 2-4% moderate range, with some impact from China redeployments. He also noted that Caribbean total revenue is expected to grow double-digits in 2026.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel Financial Corp. probed the second-half guidance, asking for a potential quantification of the yield impact if the recent strong trends in close-in demand and onboard spend were to continue. He also looked beyond the 'Perfecta' targets, asking if 2028 earnings growth could be in line with or even exceed those targets given the pipeline of new ships and destinations.

Answer

President & CEO Jason Liberty acknowledged that if current demand patterns persist, the second half of the year would be better, but declined to quantify the potential upside, stating it wasn't yet incorporated into the formal forecast. He emphasized that the 30%+ earnings growth for the year is spectacular. Regarding 2028, Liberty agreed that the full-year benefits from new ships like Oasis 7, new destinations like Perfect Day Mexico, and the ramp-up of Royal Beach Clubs should result in a significant step-up in earnings power, which does not yet account for the additional tailwind from potential share buybacks.

Steven Wieczynski questioned why the guidance for the rest of the year wasn't more conservative on onboard spending and close-in pricing, given macro uncertainty. He also asked about the company's strategy for pricing versus other promotional tools in a potential slowdown and for an update on 2026 booking trends.

Answer

CEO Jason Liberty explained that while they took a conservative position by not raising the back-half outlook despite Q1's strength, the guidance reflects real-time booking data, which remains strong. He emphasized a commitment to 'price integrity' over discounting in any environment. Regarding 2026, he noted the booked position is in line with the prior year's volume but at higher prices, which is considered an optimal position to maximize revenue.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel noted the 2025 EPS guidance was strong despite headwinds and asked if it included share buybacks. He also inquired about the new River Cruise venture, specifically regarding securing berthing rights and the potential for a future Silversea river product.

Answer

CEO Jason Liberty confirmed the EPS guidance does not factor in potential share buybacks, which would represent an upside, and that without headwinds, EPS would be over $15. On the river cruise topic, he stated that the company has already secured the necessary berthing rights and will evaluate opportunities for other brands like Silversea in the future, after establishing the Celebrity product.

Steven Wieczynski asked for the key pillars supporting the preliminary 2025 EPS guidance of a '$14 handle,' including the role of interest costs and share buybacks. He also questioned the potential yield uplift from Perfect Day Mexico, comparing it to CocoCay's impact.

Answer

CEO Jason Liberty confirmed the guidance is based on moderate yield growth, effective cost management, and benefits from lower interest costs. He explicitly stated that the '$14 handle' guidance does not include any potential share buybacks. He also affirmed that a double-digit yield uplift opportunity for the Western Caribbean from Perfect Day Mexico is 'directionally right,' similar to what was achieved with CocoCay.

Steven Wieczynski followed up for Grant Chum on the base mass business in Macau, which has not returned or improved, asking for updated thoughts on the factors holding this segment back.

Answer

Grant Chum, CEO and President of Sands China, observed that the spend per head in lower-end segments has been declining versus pre-COVID levels. He noted that despite overall GGR acceleration, base mass revenue and spend per customer in these segments have remained stagnant.

Steven Wieczynski asked if the recent 'crazy numbers' and strong performance from the existing Marina Bay Sands property (IR1) have altered the company's internal return assumptions for the upcoming expansion project (IR2).

Answer

President & COO Patrick Dumont responded that while the models have not been formally adjusted, the strong recent performance validates the company's investment-driven strategy in Singapore. He explained that the results from the renovated property, driven by high-value tourism and premium products, reinforce their confidence that the $6 billion investment in the expansion will be a high-quality one that extends their successful lifestyle and entertainment offerings.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel asked if competitors in Macau were changing their promotional activity in anticipation of the Londoner coming fully online. He also asked for an estimate of the financial impact from the President's visit in December.

Answer

President and COO Patrick Dumont and Sands China CEO Grant Chum both emphasized that the Macau market is constantly competitive and promotional, and their strategy remains disciplined and focused on leveraging their scaled assets, not reacting to others. Regarding the President's visit, Patrick Dumont declined to provide a specific financial estimate but acknowledged there was a 'noticeable change' in visitation.

Steven Wieczynski asked if management is concerned about the U.S.-China political environment impacting their Macao operations, and how a potential push for more tourism by Singapore's government might affect long-term EBITDA at MBS.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein stated he is not concerned about the political situation, emphasizing the company's strong, long-standing relationship with Macao and Beijing and its role as a leading investor. President and COO Patrick Dumont noted that Singapore has long focused on attracting high-value tourism, a strategy LVS has invested behind and benefited from for 15 years. Goldstein added that the MBS property itself is an extraordinary asset that helps drive that high-value visitation.

Steven Wieczynski sought more color on 2026 Caribbean demand, Carnival's ability to take pricing action, and how pure Caribbean yields might compare to the overall 2.5% yield guidance. He also asked for insights into the expected cadence of yields and costs for Q2, Q3, and Q4 2026, following the Q1 guidance.

Answer

President and CEO Josh Weinstein reiterated that Carnival is managing its business appropriately, with 4% capacity growth over 2025-2026, and expects Caribbean yields to be positive and support overall momentum. CFO David Bernstein indicated that Q2, Q3, and Q4 costs are likely to be lower than the full-year average, while yield increases on a year-over-year basis are expected to be higher in the back half of 2026 due to easier comparisons.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel Financial Corp asked for a qualitative outlook on 2026 booking trends, the meaning of 'unprecedented start' for 2027 bookings, and strategies to mitigate anticipated 2026 headwinds from the loyalty program, dry docks, and island build-out.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein clarified that 'unprecedented start' for 2027 bookings refers to a record number of bookings in the Q3 2025 13-week window. For 2026, he expressed confidence due to strong booking curves, full-year benefit of Celebration Key, and no significant capacity growth. CFO David Bernstein confirmed the loyalty program impact is second-half weighted and dry dock expenses are higher for 2026, with management actively seeking cost efficiencies.

Steven Wieczynski asked for a walkthrough of booking trends over the past three months, questioning if there were stronger or softer periods amidst global events. He also asked about the potential for upside in the second half of the year, given that the company is already 93% booked and past outperformance was driven by close-in demand.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein acknowledged that booking volatility increased in April but noted that May was better than April, and early June was better than May. Regarding the second half, Weinstein stated that while the company always strives to exceed guidance, the upside potential is not the same as it was in December due to unforeseen macroeconomic and geopolitical turbulence. He emphasized the team's strong execution in navigating the current environment.

Steven Wieczynski asked for a walkthrough of booking trends over the past three months amid global events and how to think about the potential for upside in the second half of the year, given the high booked position might limit opportunities from strong close-in pricing.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein acknowledged increased booking volatility in April but noted that May showed improvement over April, and early June improved further over May. Regarding the second half, he stated that while the company will always strive to exceed guidance, the upside potential is not as significant as it appeared in December due to unforeseen macroeconomic and geopolitical turbulence. He affirmed the team is adept at managing the yield curve in the current environment.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel inquired about booking trends for 2026, asking if there were any material differences by brand or changes in customer behavior. He also sought confirmation that there is likely upside to back-half guidance if current consumer strength persists.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated there were no concerning trends in 2026 bookings and that the company is building a strong foundation with a record book position at higher prices. He explicitly confirmed that if strong onboard and close-in demand trends continue, there would be upside to the guidance for the second half of the year.

Steven Wieczynski suggested the 2025 yield guidance of approximately 4% might be conservative, asking for its composition and what factors were underestimated in 2024's outperformance. He also asked about plans for new long-range financial targets, given the rapid progress toward the 2026 SEA Change goals.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein defended the guidance as a realistic assessment based on current data, noting that 2024's outperformance was exceptional and partially driven by occupancy recovery, a factor that is now stabilized. He confirmed his intention to set new long-term targets once the current SEA Change goals are met to maintain internal and external alignment. CFO David Bernstein also provided color on the quarterly cadence of costs for 2025, expecting higher costs in Q2 and Q3 due to dry-dock schedules.

Steven Wieczynski questioned the fourth-quarter yield guidance, suggesting it appeared lower than previously implied, and asked if there was any regional or brand-specific pricing weakness. He also asked if the booking window for 2025 and 2026 had expanded too much, potentially leaving revenue on the table, and inquired about demand acceleration for itineraries including Celebration Key.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein clarified that there was no change to the Q4 yield guidance from June, stating that the 5% growth target is strong given the difficult comparison to Q4 2023. Regarding the booking curve, he explained the goal is to maximize revenue, not just extend the window, and that they actively manage this brand-by-brand. He confirmed a pricing premium for Celebration Key itineraries, particularly for 2026, but noted that the strong performance in 2024 and early 2025 is based on core demand, independent of the new destination.

Steven Wieczynski questioned the regional reinvestment and promotional strategy, contrasting it with Eldorado's historical approach of cutting promotions, and sought confidence that it wouldn't escalate into a promotional war.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg explained the strategy as optimizing existing advantages and addressing a previously too-wide promotional gap, not initiating a promotional war. He emphasized improving flow-through and discipline, expecting continued positive trends.

Steven Wieczynski questioned the regional reinvestment strategy, comparing it to past practices of cutting promotions and seeking confidence that it won't lead to a promotional war.

Answer

Tom Reeg, CEO, reiterated that the strategy is about optimizing the gap in marketing spend relative to competitors, not initiating a promotional war. He emphasized the use of granular customer data and improved discipline, expecting continued increases in flow-through and margin.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel Financial Corp. sought to clarify the underlying regional margins after accounting for one-time headwinds and increased marketing spend. He also asked if Caesars took specific actions, like increased promotions, to stabilize the FIT (Free Independent Traveler) customer base in Las Vegas.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg confirmed that regional margins would have been higher without the Q2 marketing push and are expected to improve as unprofitable programs are pared back. Regarding Las Vegas, Reeg clarified that the stabilization he mentioned was in forward 'cash room revenue' expectations, which are primarily from non-gaming customers, and was not the result of a specific new promotional effort to that cohort.

Steven Wieczynski probed for any signs of behavioral changes among lower-end or unrated customers and asked if the company could leverage its owned real estate to protect the balance sheet in a potential downturn.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg reiterated that no consumer softness is visible in their business, noting that while unrated play has been softer since the stimulus, rated play across the enterprise was up mid-single digits in April. Regarding the balance sheet, Reeg expressed confidence, highlighting that the fast-growing Digital segment and significantly improved free cash flow position the company well for any potential economic softness, a situation different from prior downturns.

Steven Wieczynski questioned the reasons behind the improved outlook for the Regional segment and asked for color on unrated play and spending patterns across different customer tiers.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg explained the improved regional outlook is due to better-than-expected performance from new properties and less severe competitive impacts than anticipated. He described the overall customer base as 'pretty solid and stable,' noting that unrated play has stabilized and even improved recently after previous softness.

Steven Wieczynski asked about the potential for a Las Vegas Strip asset sale, noting that the topic had faded due to the rate environment but might be returning. He inquired if management is seeing a resurgence in inbound interest for its Strip properties.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg clarified that while there are no active sale processes for any casinos, the biggest change in the last 90 days has been a significant increase in inbound calls from parties interested in various assets. He stated that while nothing is active, the company remains open to transactions if they make economic sense to drive value.

Steven Wieczynski asked about the broader health of the Las Vegas Strip and whether its trends impact Red Rock Resorts' locals-focused business model, suggesting historical correlations might no longer apply. He also questioned the company's long-term development strategy for new projects like Cactus and Inspirata, including potential magnitude and ROIC.

Answer

Stephen Cootey, EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, emphasized the fundamental difference between Red Rock's gaming-centric locals' market model and the Strip's tourism-driven model, citing nine consecutive quarters of record revenue and five of record EBITDA as proof of resilience. Scott Kreeger, President, and Lorenzo Fertitta, Vice Chairman, stated that the Durango North expansion is shovel-ready and doesn't delay master planning for future projects like Cactus and Inspirata, maintaining bullishness on future development and returns.

Steven Wieczynski asked about new customer sign-ups and whether there was a noticeable pickup from customers avoiding higher prices on the Las Vegas Strip. He also requested an update on the group business outlook for late 2025 and 2026.

Answer

Scott Kreeger, President, reported strong database growth, with Durango adding 108,000 new customers and core properties up nearly 10% in sign-ups, including a 15% increase in the under-35 demographic. Stephen Cootey, EVP, CFO & Treasurer, highlighted the value proposition of the locals market. For group business, Kreeger noted very positive forward bookings with mid-twenty percent increases expected through 2026.

Steven Wieczynski sought confirmation that April business trends were consistent with Q1 and asked if there were any noticeable changes in non-gaming spending patterns among customers.

Answer

Executive Scott Kreeger confirmed that non-gaming spend remains healthy, with food and beverage covers up despite tough comps from Durango's opening. He also noted that forward hotel bookings for group and catering are substantially up for the remainder of 2025. Executive Stephen Cootey cautioned that construction disruption at several properties is expected to increase in the second quarter.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel requested a high-level outlook on the 2025 customer base, including rated versus non-rated play and group business, and also asked about the company's appetite for M&A versus organic growth.

Answer

Executive Scott Kreeger described the core customer as stable and noted that while group business would be soft in Q1, it shows strong pickup for the rest of 2025. Executive Stephen Cootey reiterated that while they evaluate all opportunities, their strategic focus remains on developing their own land bank in the Las Vegas market.

Steven Wieczynski asked for more detail on the softness in group sales, its effect on Food & Beverage margins, and any notable headwinds or tailwinds anticipated for 2025.

Answer

Executive Scott Kreeger attributed group sales softness to tough year-over-year comparisons against post-COVID rebookings, a trend expected to continue into early 2025 before improving. Executive Stephen Cootey confirmed this softness, primarily in catering, impacted F&B margins and identified approximately $23 million in 2025 renovation disruption as a key headwind. Executive Lorenzo Fertitta added that the core business remained stable and strong entering Q4.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel asked if the strong performance in the Midwest and South segment was broad-based across all properties or if specific markets, excluding Treasure Chest, showed particular strength. He also questioned the current CapEx positioning of Boyd Gaming's Las Vegas Locals assets relative to competitors and if more spending would be needed to keep pace with new supply, specifically mentioning Orleans and Suncoast.

Answer

Keith Smith, President and CEO, confirmed that the strong performance in the Midwest and South segment was generally broad-based across the 17 properties, with Treasure Chest continuing to show positive growth even after its anniversary. Regarding Las Vegas Locals CapEx, Keith Smith highlighted ongoing renovation work at Suncoast Casino, which is performing in line with the prior year despite construction, and planned updates for the Orleans Hotel. He stated that other properties are well-positioned, with competitive slot floors and planned restaurant projects. Josh Hirsberg, CFO, noted that Suncoast and Orleans renovations are categorized as maintenance capital.

Steven Wieczynski asked about the performance trends in the Midwest and South properties, specifically if strength was broad-based or concentrated, excluding Treasure Chest. He also inquired about the capital expenditure positioning of Las Vegas Locals assets relative to peers and new supply.

Answer

President and CEO Keith Smith stated that strength in the Midwest and South segment was generally broad-based, with Treasure Chest continuing to grow post-anniversary. Regarding Las Vegas Locals CapEx, Keith Smith highlighted the positive impact of Suncoast renovations and the need for updating at the Orleans, while other properties are well-positioned with ongoing restaurant projects.

Steven Wieczynski asked for a high-level outlook on Boyd's core versus retail customer segments for 2025, and inquired about expected margin flow-through and corporate expense guidance.

Answer

EVP and CFO Josh Hirsberg stated that the core customer segment is expected to continue growing, while the retail segment remains stable outside Las Vegas and is showing stabilizing trends within Las Vegas. He projected 2025 corporate expense at approximately $95 million. President and CEO Keith Smith added that overall margins should remain consistent with recent performance.

Steven Wieczynski sought to confirm the baseline run-rate EBITDA for the online segment heading into 2025 after stripping out non-recurring fees, and asked for an update on the promotional environment in the Las Vegas Locals market.

Answer

EVP and CFO Josh Hirsberg confirmed the math was correct and that the $75 million figure is the right baseline to use for 2025 growth projections. President and CEO Keith Smith stated that the aggressive promotional spending from a competitor has not abated and has remained at an elevated level since late last year, and Boyd will not participate, instead waiting for the situation to normalize.

Steven Wieczynski asked if the company is seeing softness in unrated play like some competitors, whether non-gaming spend has changed, and if the promotional environment has become more aggressive.

Answer

Executive Josh Hirsberg responded that non-gaming spend in areas like F&B and hotel is up on a cash basis, with any softness isolated to Las Vegas due to the difficult Super Bowl comparison from the prior year. Executive Keith Smith added that they have not seen any significant or structural changes in the competitive promotional environment across their markets.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel Financial Corp. inquired about the booking progress for 2026 over the past few months, specifically asking for trends in June, July, and August following a previously mentioned slowdown. He also asked for clarification on the recent uptick in marketing spend, questioning if it was broad-based or targeted at specific itineraries or cabin classes.

Answer

Leah Talactac, President & CFO, confirmed that demand remained strong with an "outstanding" June and July, and this strength continued into August, reflected in the 55% booked position for 2026. She stated that consumer behavior was consistent with the past. Regarding marketing, she explained that Viking's strategy is to use marketing as the primary lever, not pricing, to address any demand softness. The increased spend was a strategic move to stimulate demand and promote the brand, consistent with their direct-to-consumer business model.

Steven Wieczynski inquired about 2026 pricing trends, asking if the company has resorted to promotions or discounting to drive bookings, and questioned if there have been any material changes to its elongated booking window.

Answer

President and CFO Leah Talactac confirmed that Viking has not used pricing promotions for future seasons, explaining that pricing dynamics are nuanced and compared against a very strong 2025. She stated that with nearly 40% of 2026 sold, management is confident pricing will trend towards mid-single-digit increases, assuming a stable macro environment. Talactac also affirmed that there have been no material changes to the booking window.

Steven Wieczynski asked about Viking's 2026 pricing strategy, questioning if recent solid booking levels in April and May were driven by promotions or discounting, and inquired about any changes to the company's elongated booking window.

Answer

President and CFO Leah Talactac confirmed that Viking has not used pricing promotions for future seasons, describing the pricing environment as nuanced and noting the high comparison bar from 2025. She expressed confidence that pricing would trend towards mid-single-digit increases, supported by consumer resilience and strong recent demand. Talactac also stated there have been no material changes to the booking window.

Steven Wieczynski inquired why Viking has not yet released its 2026 booking curve charts, asked for color on how 2026 bookings are trending, and questioned how the company plans to respond to new competition, such as Royal Caribbean, entering the river cruise market.

Answer

Leah Talactac, President and CFO, stated that the current focus is on finalizing the 2025 season but confirmed that 2026 bookings are ahead of 2025 at the same point in time. Chairman and CEO Torstein Hagen addressed competition by highlighting Viking's dominant 52% market share, extensive order book, high customer satisfaction, and unique operational advantages, including premier docking rights and a powerful direct marketing model, suggesting new entrants will not have a substantial impact.

Steven Wieczynski asked about Viking's optimal booked position, questioning if being 70% sold for 2025 is historically high and potentially too far in advance. He also probed whether 2026 bookings are tracking ahead of historical patterns.

Answer

CFO Leah Talactac explained that the booking curve was intentionally accelerated for 2025 due to the election year but acknowledged it is more advanced than pre-COVID levels and will likely normalize. She noted the balance between achieving yield and booking far out, stating that future focus remains on closing out 2024 and ensuring 2025 is in good shape.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel Financial Corp. asked whether Wynn's initial EBITDAR projections for the UAE project could be conservative, given new information about the market and a potentially less competitive landscape.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings suggested the base case projections could indeed be conservative. He highlighted that the original forecast assumed multiple competitors, whereas Wynn now expects to be the sole operator for some time. He also noted that some analyst GGR estimates for the market exceed Wynn's initial assumptions, creating potential upside.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel inquired about the Macau cost structure and the outlook for OpEx per day. He also asked how management balances share buybacks against investing capital in new projects given the current stock price.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings declined to give specific OpEx guidance for Macau but stated the approach is disciplined, day-to-day management, similar to Las Vegas. On capital allocation, he explained that Wynn's strong liquidity and leverage profile allow them to do both. With Wynn Al Marjan's budget set and other new projects having a longer capital spend timeline, they are in a strong position to continue share repurchases while the stock offers good value.

Steven Wieczynski asked if the strong visitation at Orlando parks, despite the opening of Universal's Epic Universe, was driven by increased marketing spend. He also questioned the reasons for the nearly 10% year-over-year decline in deferred revenue, given the positive commentary on forward bookings.

Answer

CEO Marc Swanson confirmed that the company strategically increased its marketing focus on Orlando in anticipation of the new competition and also ran promotions across the company due to poor weather. Regarding deferred revenue, Swanson and CFO Jim Mikolajczyk explained the decline was due to a mix of factors, including the types of passes sold, a lower overall pass base, and weather-related promotions. They reiterated that positive indicators from Discovery Cove, group bookings, and Howl-O-Scream sales provide confidence for the future.

Steven Wieczynski questioned management's confidence in achieving record EBITDA in 2025, considering the opening of Universal's Epic Universe and the missed forecast in 2024. He also asked for clarification on why management believes Wall Street's 2025 consensus estimates are significantly below internal plans.

Answer

CEO Marc Swanson responded that the opening of Epic Universe is a positive opportunity that will increase overall visitation to the Orlando market. He expressed confidence in capturing a fair share due to United Parks' differentiated product, value proposition, and new attractions. Swanson stated that the Wall Street consensus of ~$701M in adjusted EBITDA for 2025 would be "totally unacceptable" and that internal plans are significantly higher, driven by strategic initiatives and a strong track record of per capita spending growth.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated inquired about the 2025 financial outlook, specifically whether United Parks could surpass its previous EBITDA record after weather-related setbacks in 2024, and how the company plans to address increased competition in the Orlando market.

Answer

CEO Marc Swanson acknowledged that 2024 record targets are no longer expected due to severe weather. However, he conveyed confidence for 2025, citing strong forward demand indicators and a strategy to recapture lost attendance and grow through new initiatives. Regarding Orlando competition, Swanson highlighted the company's differentiated product, value proposition, and historical ability to thrive in a growing market, expressing confidence in their specific strategies to attract visitors.

Steven Wieczynski asked for details on the company's confidence in achieving record revenue and EBITDA for the year, given the Q1 results. He also requested more color on April's attendance growth, the impact of the Easter calendar shift, and any changes in consumer spending behavior or discounting tactics.

Answer

CEO Marc Swanson explained that confidence stems from strong April attendance (up over 8%), which outpaced the Easter shift benefit, and year-to-date attendance being up over 3% on a like-for-like basis. He also pointed to upcoming attraction openings, strategies to improve admissions per capita, the opportunity to capture more visitors from the Epic Universe opening, and new high-margin sponsorship revenue expected in 2024.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel Financial Corp asked for clarification on the term "macro pressures," questioning if it referred only to weather or also to a material change in consumer spending. He also questioned why recent headwinds would significantly impact the long-term 2028 financial targets, which presumably accounted for some volatility.

Answer

CEO Richard Zimmerman and CFO Brian Witherow explained that "macro pressures" were dominated by weather but also included some softness from lower-income consumers. They noted that while guest spending inside the parks remains solid, the urgency to visit was lower in the first half. Regarding long-term guidance, they stated the current challenges are transient and do not alter the company's long-term potential, but they will formally reassess the targets after the 2025 fiscal year concludes.

Steven Wieczynski sought clarification on the first quarter's contribution to full-year results, contrasting the 5.5% mentioned on the call with the 7% in the press release. He also asked about the strategic rationale for closing the Maryland park and whether similar opportunities exist across the portfolio.

Answer

CFO Brian Witherow confirmed that Q1 is tracking to represent about 5.5% of full-year attendance and 6% of revenue, with the 7% figure being a more historical norm. CEO Richard Zimmerman explained the Maryland park closure is a unique opportunity to unlock significant land value, similar to a past transaction in Santa Clara. He stated that while the company will continue to evaluate its portfolio, it does not have plans to close other parks at this time, though it may consider transactions involving smaller locations to maximize value.

Steven Wieczynski asked for the high-level assumptions embedded in the 2025 guidance, including attendance and per caps, and inquired if the 55 million attendance target for 2027 remains valid. He also sought clarity on the factors driving the high and low ends of the guidance range.

Answer

CEO Richard Zimmerman highlighted the strong 2025 capital lineup as a key driver for market penetration and visit frequency. CFO Brian Witherow added that the guidance assumes normal weather patterns, a stable economic environment, and accounts for some foreign exchange pressure. He explained that the high end of the guidance range would be achieved through stronger-than-expected attendance growth, which also boosts guest spending.

Steven Wieczynski inquired about the expected cadence for reaching the 55 million attendance target by 2027 and whether the $800 million unlevered free cash flow target includes the previously mentioned revenue synergies.

Answer

CFO Brian Witherow explained that attendance growth will not be linear but will ramp up, with an inflection point expected in 2026 and beyond. He clarified that the primary driver of revenue growth is increasing attendance, which is a greater opportunity than the initial revenue synergy estimates. CEO Richard Zimmerman added that high guest satisfaction and a compelling capital program are the key drivers for demand.

Steven Wieczynski questioned the implied second-half 2025 EBITDA guidance, which appears lower than the prior year despite strong momentum, and asked what drove the mid-year guidance increase, a historically uncommon move for the company.

Answer

CFO Rick Goldberg and CEO Natalya Leahy explained that the second-half outlook reflects planned investments for future growth, particularly in international expansion, which are front-loaded. Goldberg added that the guidance was raised because strategic initiatives to boost occupancy and net yield are delivering results ahead of schedule.

Steven Wieczynski asked about the drivers behind the unexpectedly strong Q1 occupancy, the current booking environment amid macroeconomic uncertainty, and the expected cadence for net yield growth for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CEO Natalya Leahy attributed the strong occupancy to a combination of an expanded audience via the Disney partnership, growth in charter business, and dynamic pricing. She noted that while April bookings were less consistent, recent weeks have shown positive momentum. CFO Rick Goldberg added that lower Q1 capacity due to dry dock timing also boosted occupancy and that the full-year net yield growth guidance of 7% to 10% remains firm.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel asked for confirmation on the 2026 timeline to return to historical occupancy levels and inquired about the potential EBITDA progression. He also questioned the company's strategy for free cash flow use, particularly regarding debt reduction versus opportunistic ship acquisitions.

Answer

CEO Sven-Olof Lindblad confirmed the strategy to rebuild the past guest base to achieve historical occupancy levels by 2026. Executive L. Dyson Dryden agreed with the directional earnings power potential but did not provide specific long-term guidance. Regarding capital allocation, Sven-Olof Lindblad highlighted the potential to acquire existing ships from less successful competitors as a cost-effective alternative to new builds, a strategy the company has used historically.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel Financial Corp. asked about the recent increase in demand, specific changes to 2026 European deployments, the market's response to those changes, and how 2026 pricing compares to 2025. He also requested insight into the puts and takes for 2026 yield and cost outlooks.

Answer

CEO Harry Sommer explained that for 2026, European itineraries will be slightly shorter with a modest reduction in capacity, noting the company is already in an optimal booked position for the region. CFO Mark Kempa added that these deployment shifts were planned years in advance, not as a reaction to recent softness. For the 2026 outlook, Kempa highlighted expected tailwinds from lapping the Q3 2025 occupancy dip and the halo effect from the Great Stirrup Cay investment, reaffirming the goal of low to mid-single-digit yield growth.

Steven Wieczynski asked for a breakdown of booking trends between the Norwegian brand and the luxury brands, questioning if the observed 'choppiness' was more pronounced in luxury. He also inquired about a recent Oceania promotion and whether the revised yield guidance was solely due to Q3 booking challenges or if it assumed a change in onboard spending.

Answer

CEO Harry Sommer stated that all three brands are seeing similar booking patterns, with pressure concentrated on Q3 Europe itineraries. He clarified that a recent Oceania promotion was more about marketing packaging than significant discounting, reaffirming a focus on price integrity. He attributed the booking softness to a 2-3 week period in April but emphasized that the company is maintaining strong pricing for the back half of the year. CFO Mark Kempa added that they are not anticipating any significant reduction in onboard spend.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel questioned if there was potential upside to the 3.5% net yield growth guidance for Q2-Q4 2025, particularly from onboard spending. He also inquired about the company's long-term strategy for retiring its older ships.

Answer

President and CEO Harry Sommer expressed confidence in the current guidance, stating the company's philosophy is to drive onboard revenue by delivering exceptional products that guests value. Regarding fleet management, Sommer noted that the oldest ships are not yet 30 years old and are well-maintained, so no retirements are imminent. EVP and CFO Mark Kempa added that recent financing activities have created more structural flexibility for potential vessel disposals in the future.

Steven Wieczynski posed a long-term question about whether strategic changes in the industry could drive yield growth above historical low-single-digit rates, and asked if the $300 million cost savings target through 2026 might prove conservative.

Answer

CEO Harry Sommer and CFO Mark Kempa reiterated their commitment to the long-term algorithm of low-to-mid-single-digit yield growth, calling 2024 an exceptionally positive year but not a new baseline. Regarding costs, Mark Kempa stated they are ahead of pace on their savings program but are not yet ready to call the $300 million target conservative, emphasizing it's a multiyear journey.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel asked if MGM was implementing aggressive promotions or cutting resort fees to stimulate the FIT customer segment in Las Vegas and inquired about the expected margin flow-through given the current customer mix.

Answer

CEO & President Bill Hornbuckle stated that while the company is priced competitively, it is not making panicked changes to its resort fee or parking programs, instead leveraging its strong casino database. CFO Jonathan Halkyard provided a general rule of thumb for flow-through, estimating that approximately 50% of a revenue change, whether an increase or decrease, would impact the bottom line.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel asked for a high-level outlook on whether MGM expects to grow EBITDA in Las Vegas and its Regional assets in 2025, given known headwinds. He also inquired about the margin pressure in Macau during Q3 and the current promotional climate.

Answer

CEO William Hornbuckle stated that MGM believes it can improve EBITDA in 2025, aided by a new initiative targeting $200 million in cost efficiencies and revenue enhancements. For Macau, he and executives Kenny Feng and Hubert Wang attributed Q3 margin pressure to one-time costs for new non-gaming amenities, affirmed a disciplined promotional environment, and projected margin improvement in H2 2025 as capital projects are completed.

Steven Wieczynski asked for more detail on real-time guest spending patterns, questioning if there were any changes in attachment rates, demand for high-end services, or differences between land-based and maritime assets. He also inquired about the sensitivity of the full-year guidance to a potential deterioration in consumer spending.

Answer

Executive Leonard Fluxman stated that the company has not observed any decline in consumer spending; in fact, April trends showed a slight improvement with continued high demand for premium services like medi-spa. He confirmed no significant increase in discounting has been necessary. Executive Stephen Lazarus added that the low end of the annual guidance already assumes some moderation in spending, and a significant slowdown would be required to fall below that range, which they do not currently foresee.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel Financial Corp. asked for the rationale behind the flat margin guidance for 2025, given opportunities from pricing and prebooking. He also questioned the company's capital allocation strategy, specifically the balance between dividend growth and share repurchases.

Answer

CFO Stephen Lazarus explained that the flat margin guidance is a comfortable baseline that does not yet incorporate potential pricing increases. CEO Leonard Fluxman added that the company would opportunistically repurchase shares during stock price weakness and intends to grow its dividend over time.

Steven Wieczynski asked about the drivers behind the significant Q3 EBITDA margin expansion and the reasons for the performance gap between the maritime and land-based spa operations.

Answer

CFO Stephen Lazarus attributed the margin strength to robust onboard guest spending, which minimized the need for promotional activity, and a more even spread of performance-based compensation costs this year. Regarding land-based spas, both CEO Leonard Fluxman and CFO Stephen Lazarus explained that performance was negatively impacted by renovation projects at several large hotel locations and general softness in Asia, but they anticipate a recovery in 2025.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel asked about the cost assumptions underlying the 'SEA Change' program, specifically the expected spread between net yield growth and cost growth. He also questioned the rationale for increased advertising spend given the already strong demand environment and two consecutive quarters of raised cost guidance.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein explained that the company expects to return to low single-digit cost increases, creating a favorable spread against yield growth. He clarified that advertising investments are strategic, aimed not just at filling ships but at achieving higher price points. The company will continue to optimize this spending based on its effectiveness in driving both volume and pricing power.

Steven Wieczynski from Stifel questioned the conservatism of the full-year EBITDA guidance, noting the strong Q1 outperformance and robust demand, and asked if there was an assumption of a consumer slowdown. He also inquired about the potential timeline for Carnival to regain its investment-grade credit status.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein responded that the company works hard to exceed its own expectations and has not seen any decline in consumer booking or spending activity. Regarding the credit rating, Weinstein, a former treasurer, affirmed it as a key goal. CFO David Bernstein added that achieving investment-grade status requires both improving EBITDA and paying down debt, a process they expect to accelerate in 2024 due to lower capital expenditures.

Steven Wieczynski of Stifel inquired about the strategy behind maintaining high marketing spend throughout 2023, its expected quarterly cadence, and the potential for reduction in 2024. He also asked for clarification on the disposition of two ships leaving the Costa fleet.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein explained that the increased advertising is successfully driving momentum and reaching new customers, noting the spend can be adjusted as needed. CFO David Bernstein added that ad spend would likely be highest in Q1 and lowest in Q3. Regarding the ships, Bernstein confirmed that two of the three vessels being removed from the Costa fleet have contracts for sale, with the third being worked on.

Steven Wieczynski asked about the disparity in EBITDA recovery between Carnival and its peers, questioning if non-U.S. brands were underperforming and if this might lead to a re-evaluation of the nine-brand portfolio. He also inquired about the possibility of 2023 EBITDA exceeding 2019 levels.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated he could not comment on peers but affirmed Carnival's positive momentum. He clarified that performance is not a simple North American versus European issue, as all brands are at different recovery stages with high expectations for revenue improvement. Regarding 2023 EBITDA, Weinstein expressed confidence in a strong performance but declined to provide specific guidance, citing fuel and currency volatility.