Tammy Qiu

Tammy Qiu inquired about the High NA order pattern, noting a lack of new orders for two-plus quarters, and whether this implies a lumpy revenue ramp-up with potential quarters of zero High NA revenue in 2027 or 2028. She also asked for the specific reasons behind the expected significant decline in China revenue for 2026, questioning if it's due to demand uncertainty, weak end markets, or conservatism.

Answer

CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed ASML is working through a healthy High NA backlog, with the next wave of orders expected in the second half of next year after qualification data confirms tool maturity, leading to shipments in 2028 and beyond. CFO Roger Dassen explained the China revenue decline is based on ASML's assessment that past sales were exceptionally high due to eating into backlog, and 2026 represents a return to a more normalized level for the mainstream market, based on market understanding and customer dialogues.

Tammy Qiu from Berenberg asked if higher tool productivity implies that ASML now requires customers to expand capacity more aggressively to drive unit sales. She also sought to clarify if the uncertainty around 2026 reflects a potential delay in customer decisions or a fundamental change in their plans.

Answer

President & CEO Christophe Fouquet clarified that ASML's market is defined by total wafer capacity needed, not tool units, and that higher productivity tools deliver more value to customers and better margins for ASML. Regarding 2026, he characterized the situation as customers having more 'interrogation' about their decisions due to geopolitical uncertainty, rather than a confirmed delay or change at this stage, noting that underlying fundamentals like AI remain strong.