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Tasso Vasconcellos

Research Analyst at UBS Asset Management Americas Inc.

Tasso Vasconcellos is an Associate Analyst at UBS Group AG specializing in Latin American energy and chemicals, with direct coverage of companies such as YPF SA, Vista Energy, and Braskem SA. He has participated in at least nine earnings calls for these firms and regularly produces sector analysis with a focus on Brazilian oil, gas, and biofuels. Vasconcellos began his analyst tenure at UBS around 2021 and is affiliated with UBS BB, the partnership entity between UBS and Banco do Brasil. His professional credentials include expertise in fundamental energy market research, though specific securities licensing or performance rankings have not been publicized.

Tasso Vasconcellos's questions to YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA (YPF) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos inquired about any new or adjusted legislations, such as REGI or export taxes, that YPF relies on for its projects, and asked about the upside/downside potential of the dynamic fuel pricing model and recent news regarding a 72-hour notice law for fuel price adjustments.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Horacio Marín confirmed that REGI (Investment Promotion Regime) would apply to the entire LNG and infrastructure project chain. He stated that YPF, as a private company, is not involved in regulatory discussions regarding export duties for conventional oil, which is not its core business. He also mentioned reading about the proposed 72-hour notice law for fuel price adjustments in the news but reiterated that YPF does not work on regulations.

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Question · Q3 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos inquired about any new or adjusted legislations YPF relies on for projects, specifically regarding REGI and potential 8% export taxes for the oil industry, and the impact of YPF's dynamic pricing model on domestic fuel prices, including recent news about a 72-hour notice for price adjustments.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Horacio Marín clarified that YPF, as a private company, is not involved in regulatory discussions. He noted that REGI is expected to apply to the LNG project's infrastructure and full chain. Mr. Marín stated he was unaware of specific discussions regarding an 8% export tax for conventional oil, as it is not YPF's core business. He also declined to comment on news about a 72-hour notice for fuel price adjustments, reiterating YPF's non-involvement in regulation.

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Question · Q2 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos from UBS Group AG inquired about the impact of the recent acquisition of a prime block from Total on YPF's development plans, the risks associated with an already accelerated Vaca Muerta strategy, and sought clarification on recent interview comments regarding a potential slowdown in Vaca Muerta activity.

Answer

CEO Horacio Daniel Marín explained that the acquired block is one of the most profitable in Vaca Muerta, describing it as a 'Swiss spot' that will enhance profitability and be prioritized. He clarified that his interview comments about a reduction in rigs pertained to the broader Argentinian market, not YPF, emphasizing that YPF has consistently delivered on its 4x4 plan and remains on track.

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Question · Q2 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos asked about the impact of the recent acquisition of a prime block from Total on YPF's development plans, the risks of an already accelerated schedule, and for clarification on recent comments regarding a potential slowdown in Vaca Muerta activity.

Answer

CEO, Chairman, President & Director Horacio Daniel Marín explained that the acquired block is highly profitable, located in a "sweet spot" of Vaca Muerta, and will be prioritized to maximize returns. He clarified that his previous comments about a reduction in rigs referred to the broader Argentinian market, not YPF, and affirmed that YPF is delivering on its own accelerated 4x4 plan without issue.

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Question · Q2 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos of UBS Group AG inquired about YPF's development plans following a recent block acquisition, the risks of an accelerated Vaca Muerta strategy, and recent comments by the CEO regarding a potential slowdown in the region's activity.

Answer

CEO Horacio Daniel Marín clarified that the newly acquired block is in a highly profitable "sweet spot" of Vaca Muerta and will be prioritized to enhance returns. He assured that his previous comments on a market slowdown did not apply to YPF, which remains committed to its 4x4 plan and is not reducing its rig count, having successfully delivered on all its stated goals.

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Question · Q2 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos of UBS Group AG inquired about the impact of YPF's recent Vaca Muerta block acquisition on future production plans and asked for clarification on recent comments regarding a potential slowdown in Vaca Muerta development.

Answer

CEO Horacio Daniel Marín explained that the acquired block is in a highly profitable "sweet spot" of Vaca Muerta and will be prioritized to maximize returns. He clarified that his previous comments about a development slowdown referred to broader market speculation, not YPF's own activities, emphasizing that YPF continues to deliver on its 4x4 plan.

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Tasso Vasconcellos's questions to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos of UBS Group asked if the decision to maintain the annual well connection target at 59, despite the acquisition, signaled a strategic shift towards slower growth to generate more stable cash flow sooner.

Answer

CEO Miguel Galuccio clarified that the decision reflects strong capital discipline amid a volatile macro environment. He explained the priority is to maintain a strong balance sheet and achieve neutral free cash flow in H2 2025, which requires calibrating capital spend. He reiterated that the company remains a growth story, with plans for positive free cash flow and continued growth from 2026 onward, but retains the flexibility to ramp activity up or down based on oil prices.

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Question · Q4 2024

Tasso Vasconcellos questioned the company's internal process and key metrics for potentially adding a fourth drilling rig, as well as the possible timing and impact on drilling guidance.

Answer

CEO Miguel Galuccio confirmed that Vista has an ongoing discussion and an option for a fourth rig from its strategic partner, Nabors. He outlined two primary conditions for this decision: securing sufficient midstream evacuation capacity and maintaining favorable Brent oil prices. If prices soften significantly from their forecast, it would be a 'no-go'.

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Question · Q3 2024

Tasso Vasconcellos asked about the company's maximum potential for well delivery in the future, given the addition of new equipment, and the primary bottlenecks for an accelerated plan.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Miguel Galuccio explained that the key to unlocking potential beyond the guided 52-60 wells in 2025 is the newly secured second full-time frac set. This provides crucial flexibility and optionality, as frac fleets are a more significant bottleneck than drilling rigs.

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Tasso Vasconcellos's questions to BRASKEM (BAK) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos inquired about initiatives to mitigate the industry down-cycle, including the potential for closing less profitable capacity and the status of discussions with the government on benefits like REIQ. He also asked if the low 2025 CapEx level is sustainable for the next two years and if catch-up spending would be required later.

Answer

Executive Roberto Ramos stated that lower plant utilization rates naturally extend asset life, reducing immediate CapEx needs. He clarified that the current low CapEx level is a temporary measure to preserve cash and is not a sustainable long-term run rate. He emphasized that altering the feedstock mix to improve competitiveness is always the priority over closing plants. Regarding tariffs, he noted that Europe is likely the biggest long-term loser from structural energy cost changes, not the U.S. or China.

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Question · Q1 2025

Tasso Vasconcellos inquired about initiatives to mitigate the industry down-cycle, asking about the potential closure of lower-margin units and the progress of discussions with the government on benefits like REIQ. He also questioned if the low 2025 CapEx level is sustainable for 2026 and 2027 if the downturn persists.

Answer

Executive Roberto Ramos stated that the current low CapEx is a specific measure for the current cash-constrained environment and is not sustainable long-term, though running plants at lower capacities does extend their operational life. He emphasized that closing plants is a last resort, with the primary focus being on improving competitiveness through feedstock flexibility, such as replacing naphtha with ethane. Regarding tariffs, he noted that Europe is likely the biggest long-term loser due to structural energy costs.

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