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    Tetsuya Wadaki

    Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley

    Tetsuya Wadaki is an Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, specializing in Japanese technology and semiconductor companies including SCREEN Holdings and Tokyo Electron. He covers 12 key Japanese stocks, with a performance track record highlighted by a 40% success rate and an impressive average return of 31.40% per rating in the past year. Wadaki has held senior analyst roles covering the sector for over a decade and previously appeared among top analysts for Nomura Securities, demonstrating longevity and expertise in tech equity research. He holds professional credentials to serve institutional clients in Japan, and is frequently cited for his industry insights and published research.

    Tetsuya Wadaki's questions to TOELY leadership

    Tetsuya Wadaki's questions to TOELY leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Asked about the proportion of sales from the China market for the current and next fiscal year, and whether a decline in China's proportion would make it difficult to grow overall sales.

    Answer

    The China sales proportion was in the high 40% range in the first half of the fiscal year and is expected to be in the high 30% range in the second half, averaging over 40% for the full year. For the next fiscal year, it is projected to be in the mid-30% range. The company is not concerned about the impact on gross profit margin, as the focus on high-value products is increasing profitability regardless of the China mix.

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    Tetsuya Wadaki's questions to TOELY leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Asked about the primary factors behind the upward revision in the financial forecast and the strong performance in the first quarter, and sought clarification on the outlook for the China market.

    Answer

    The upward revision was driven by customers pulling forward investment plans, additional investments in logic, AI, and testing processes (like wafer probers), and a recovery in memory investment. Regarding China, there are no major changes to the initial guidance; however, an acceleration of investment led to earlier-than-expected sales recognition, which may result in a decline in recognized sales in the second half of the year.

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    Tetsuya Wadaki's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership

    Tetsuya Wadaki's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Tetsuya Wadaki from Morgan Stanley expressed concern that strong 2024 performance, driven by low yields in advanced packaging, could create a high hurdle for the following year. He questioned the sustainability of this demand surge and the potential for a future drop.

    Answer

    Executive Makoto Nakahara and Executive Douglas Lefever responded. Mr. Nakahara noted that while current-gen yields are improving, the 2025 ramp-up of next-gen devices will create new challenges, sustaining tester demand. Mr. Lefever added that complexity is not slowing due to Moore's Law, chiplets, and silicon photonics, and even small test content increases on a larger installed base drive significant capacity needs.

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    Tetsuya Wadaki's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Tetsuya Wadaki expressed concern that the current year's strong performance, driven by low yields in advanced packaging, creates a high hurdle for next year and questioned if this demand momentum is sustainable.

    Answer

    Makoto Nakahara, an executive, acknowledged that while existing devices see yield improvements, the ramp-up of next-generation devices in 2025 will introduce new quality challenges, sustaining tester demand. Executive Douglas Lefever added that test complexity is not slowing due to Moore's Law, chiplet adoption, and new technologies like silicon photonics, which will continue to drive demand for testing on a larger installed base.

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    Tetsuya Wadaki's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Tetsuya Wadaki of Morgan Stanley commented on the significant upward guidance revision and asked about the company's capacity to handle the increased sales and delivery forecast for the second half of the year, especially given potential capacity constraints.

    Answer

    An unnamed executive responded that the company has been preparing for strong HBM demand for some time by working with suppliers. To meet the urgent demand for HPC SoC testers, they have been strategically increasing inventory, as reflected on the balance sheet. The executive expressed confidence in their ability to manage capacity, provided customers give advance notice.

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    Tetsuya Wadaki's questions to ADVANTEST (ATEYY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Tetsuya Wadaki of Morgan Stanley expressed concern that strong FY24 results, driven by low yields in advanced packaging, could create a high hurdle for the next fiscal year, questioning if demand will drop as yields improve.

    Answer

    Executive Makoto Nakahara acknowledged that while yields on current-generation devices may improve, the 2025 ramp-up of next-generation devices will introduce new quality challenges, sustaining tester demand. Executive Douglas Lefever added that test complexity is not slowing due to Moore's Law, the adoption of chiplets, and future technologies like silicon photonics. The high cost of advanced packages continues to justify significant investment in testing.

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