Thiago Duarte

Thiago Duarte questioned Ambev's strategic focus on core brands, noting that premium brands seemed to outperform in 2025 despite previous discussions about investing in core. He asked about the current potential of core brands and whether the portfolio is transitioning more towards premium.

Answer

CEO Carlos Lisboa reaffirmed the importance of core brands for accessibility, especially given Brazil's economic context, and their regional relevance. He emphasized Ambev's 'ambidextrous' approach, citing innovations like Skol Zero Zero to keep core brands relevant. Lisboa noted that Q4 2025 saw share gains from both new positions (premium, no-alcohol, balanced) and core brands, indicating the full portfolio's potential. CFO Guilherme Fleury added that core brands were more impacted by weather-affected occasions, while premium and zero-alcohol led category expansion.

Thiago Duarte asked about the strategic vision for core brands, their potential and relevance compared to premium brands, and the sustainability of SG&A dilution given past investments in innovation and portfolio expansion.

Answer

Carlos Lisboa (CEO, Ambev) reiterated the importance of core brands for accessibility and regional strength, citing examples like Skol Zero Zero for future relevance. He noted that Q4 share gains came from all segments, including core, indicating full portfolio potential. Guilherme Fleury (CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev) added that core brands were more impacted by weather-driven occasions, while premium and non-alcoholic led growth.

Thiago Duarte asked for a breakdown of the net revenue per hectoliter gain between price and mix, questioned the timing of Q2 price increases relative to historical patterns, and sought clarity on the strategy for the core segment amid SKU reductions and the rise of newer brands.

Answer

CEO Carlos Eduardo Klutzenschell Lisboa stated that pricing decisions are based on market dynamics, not a fixed schedule, and the rate impact was in line with inflation, with positive brand mix contributing the rest. He reaffirmed that the core segment remains a priority and a cornerstone of the category. CFO Guilherme Fleury de Figueiredo Ferraz Parolari added that the SKU rationalization targeted low-moving, low-contribution items to improve productivity, not core brands.

Thiago Duarte inquired about the drivers of consolidated margin expansion for the year, asking for the expected contribution from different geographies, particularly Brazil Beer. He also asked for an assessment of beer affordability in Brazil today.

Answer

Executive Carlos Eduardo Lisboa stated that achieving margin expansion in 2025 will require a different approach due to cost headwinds, with all markets expected to contribute through the company's three strategic pillars. Regarding affordability, he sees significant growth opportunities in Brazil by increasing consumption frequency and accessibility, leveraging Ambev's diverse portfolio to cater to both premium and value-conscious consumers. CFO Guilherme Fleury de Figueiredo Parolari added that cost visibility, focus on controllables, and productivity levers are key to achieving their financial ambitions.

Thiago Duarte of BTG Pactual inquired about the volume decline of the Skol brand in 2024 and its strategic importance as a priority for 2025. He also asked for details on Brazil Beer's Q4 volume performance, questioning if there were regional disparities, such as stronger results in the North and Northeast.

Answer

CEO Carlos Eduardo Lisboa confirmed that Skol is a priority for 2025, highlighting its importance as a core brand that leads in 17 states and embodies the popular "easy-to-drink" profile. He acknowledged 2024 was a weak year for the brand. Lisboa also affirmed that volume performance was indeed led by the North and Northeast regions, both for the full year and in Q4.

Thiago Duarte asked about Brazil beer pricing, questioning if the ICMS tax pass-through was complete and seeking guidance on the upcoming pricing season. He also requested clarification on how 'brand health' is measured and which brands the 'all-time high' status applies to.

Answer

Executive Jean Neto explained that Q2 pricing was ahead of inflation, driven by revenue management initiatives from late Q1, not Q2. He stated the long-term strategy of pricing in line with inflation remains unchanged. Regarding brand health, Neto clarified it's a combined metric of how meaningful, differentiated, and remembered a brand is, and confirmed the 'all-time high' status referred specifically to the four focus brands.

Thiago Duarte inquired about how M&A opportunities, particularly in the prepared food segment, fit into JBS's capital allocation strategy, given recent share buybacks and dividends. He also asked Wesley Batista Filho about the unfolding trends in U.S. protein prices, specifically the high beef retail prices relative to pork and chicken, and how this might affect beef demand or support other proteins.

Answer

Guilherme Cavalcanti, Global CFO of JBS, stated that small M&As are feasible with current leverage and cash generation, but no large M&A is currently being pursued. He emphasized maintaining investment grade and consulting rating agencies for any significant M&A. Wesley Batista Filho, CEO of JBS USA, explained that high beef prices are due to tight supply and reflect strong demand. He noted that this drives some substitution to pork and chicken, supporting their demand, and expects beef prices to normalize when supply increases, likely from 2027 onwards.

Thiago Duarte asked about JBS's capital allocation strategy, specifically how M&A opportunities, particularly in prepared foods, fit into their plans given comfortable leverage and share buybacks. He also asked Wesley Batista Filho about the unfolding trends in U.S. retail protein prices, considering beef's near all-time highs versus pork and chicken, and whether high beef prices would eventually cool demand or continue to support other proteins.

Answer

Guilherme Cavalcanti (Global CFO, JBS) stated that small M&As are manageable with current leverage and cash generation, but for large M&As, rating agencies would dictate the capital structure to maintain investment grade. Wesley Batista Filho (CEO, JBS USA) explained that beef prices are high due to tight supply and will fall when supply increases. He noted strong demand for beef even at high prices, and that expensive beef drives some substitution demand for pork and chicken, which will continue as long as beef supplies are tight.

Thiago Duarte from BTG Pactual sought clarification on cane quality, specifically TRS levels, and how the company expects to maintain flat crushing volumes despite lower yields. He also asked if the favorable ethanol-equivalent price in Mato Grosso do Sul would lead other regional mills to also prioritize ethanol over sugar.

Answer

Renato Junquera Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol and Energy VP, clarified that while yields are expected to be similar to last year, TRS content will be slightly lower due to harvesting frost-impacted cane. He confirmed that for mills in Mato Grosso do Sul with similar tax incentives and logistics, it would be rational to follow Adecoagro's strategy of maximizing ethanol production over sugar at current price levels.

Thiago Duarte of BTG Pactual inquired about several key areas: how Adecoagro plans to meet its full-year sugarcane crushing target after a weak first quarter, the unit economics of its various crops explaining the low margin in the Crops segment, and the specific organic and inorganic growth opportunities in Latin America that new majority shareholder Tether finds compelling.

Answer

Executive Chairman Juan Jose-Pineyro Sartori detailed Tether's growth strategy, highlighting support for organic expansion, potential acquisitions, and new ventures like energy, all backed by Tether's financial strength. Executive Renato Pereira explained that the Q1 crushing pace was a deliberate strategy due to dry weather, and with recent heavy rains, he expects yields to recover and be 5-10% higher, making the annual target achievable. Executive Mariano Bosch clarified that crop economics are best viewed by campaign, not quarter, and ranked the current priorities as full-season corn, followed by wheat/soybean double crop, and then full-season soybean.

Thiago Duarte from BTG Pactual asked for more detail on the Move segment's volume recovery dynamics post-fire. He also sought an update on Cosan's portfolio recycling and divestiture priorities for debt reduction, questioning if the strategy or urgency has changed given the high interest rate environment.

Answer

CFO Rodrigo Araujo stated that Move's strategy prioritized preserving its customer base, leading to a rapid volume recovery, with positive dynamics seen each month. Executive Marcelo Martins added that deleveraging is a major priority and that while discussions for partial asset sales are ongoing, the company will not sacrifice portfolio quality for speed. He also reiterated that Cosan will not inject new capital into Raizen.

Thiago Duarte of BTG Pactual asked for greater clarity on the primary direction of Cosan's deleveraging strategy, given the multiple options available such as asset sales or capital increases. He also pressed for a specific debt reduction target to gauge the company's immediate goals.

Answer

Executive Rodrigo Alves outlined a conceptual framework, stating that full asset sales are an option while capital increases are not the primary path. He signaled a strategic shift away from using holding company debt for new growth, favoring expansion within the operating companies instead. Executive Marcelo Martins provided a clear sequence: asset sales at both Cosan and Raizen must precede any consideration of capitalization. He committed to a tangible goal, stating the objective is to reduce debt by 'at least 30% in the coming months.'

Thiago Duarte of BTG Pactual asked about the potential size of the market opportunity if Japan and South Korea open to Brazilian beef, and questioned whether a corporate merger between Marfrig and BRF is still under consideration.

Answer

Executive Rui Mendonca indicated that Japan, Korea, and Indonesia could be large, important contributors, citing the positive impact already seen from accessing Japan via Uruguay. Executive Marcos dos Santos stated that a merger with BRF is 'in the back burner' and not a current focus, as the priority is on growing both companies independently while capturing operational synergies.

Thiago Duarte from BTG Pactual inquired about South American operations, asking if sales volumes could reasonably exceed 200,000 tons in the future due to recent capacity buildups. He also asked for details on the margin profile of fresh versus processed meat.

Answer

An executive confirmed that a 30% capacity increase coming online early next year makes volumes above 200,000 tons achievable. Regarding margins, the executive stated that processed/boxed products deliver double-digit margins, and the focus on branded, higher-quality fresh beef, combined with feedlot supply, should bring its margins to a similar level.

Thiago Duarte questioned the sustainability of the long-term thesis of converting pastures into farmland, asking if the expected real estate gains and operational returns hold up against rising land prices.

Answer

Executive André Guillaumon strongly reaffirmed the company's belief in this strategy. He detailed that the IRR for converting pasture to agricultural land (7-9%) is substantially higher than holding it for cattle (2.5-3%). He emphasized that these converted lands mature quickly and achieve high productivity, making the model of intensifying land use a highly advantageous and sustainable value-generation strategy.

Thiago Duarte questioned the sustainability of the company's long-term strategy of converting pastures into farmland, especially with rising input costs.

Answer

Executive André Guillaumon strongly affirmed the thesis, stating that the IRR from converting pasture to agricultural land (7-9%) is substantially higher than holding it for cattle (2.5-3%). He emphasized that the land matures quickly and achieves high productivity levels, citing a new operation in Guapira Valley as a successful example. He believes this intensification model 'will make a major, major sense' for Brazil's agricultural future.

Thiago Duarte of BTG Pactual inquired about the reasons for the projected drop in grain yields, particularly for soybeans, questioning if it was related to recent late planting issues. He also asked for an update on the previously stated margin expectations for the soybean harvest, which were between BRL 1,700 and BRL 2,500 per hectare, and sought to gauge the company's level of concern about the planting progress.

Answer

Executive André Guillaumon clarified that the lower projected yield is not due to climate problems but is a result of incorporating 15,000 hectares of new, less mature land, which naturally has lower initial productivity. He confirmed that the margin expectation of BRL 1,700 to BRL 2,500 per hectare remains valid, supported by production costs of around BRL 4,000 per hectare. Regarding planting, he expressed concern about Mato Grosso's tight window for the second corn crop but noted that planting in other key areas like Xingu was historically fast. For Bahia, the concern is managing potential excess rain from El Niño, not a lack of it.

Thiago Duarte questioned the outlook for the cost curve in the second half of the year, the company's capital allocation priorities given its low leverage, and the sustainability of its export price premium over market benchmarks.

Answer

CFO Fabio Mariano indicated there is marginal room for cost reduction in H2 2024, driven by efficiencies from the BRF+ program and some remaining grain negotiations. Regarding capital allocation, he mentioned potential investments in Brazil and Saudi Arabia, and noted that while conditions for dividend payments are improving, the decision rests with the board. CEO Miguel Gularte explained the export price premium is sustained by an assertive pricing system, strong brands, innovation, and the strategic flexibility provided by new export permits.

Thiago Duarte from BTG Pactual asked about the company's view on the structural, sustainable profitability margin for the business now that the turnaround has consolidated. He also questioned the revenue dynamics in Brazil, pointing out the year-over-year drop, particularly in processed products, which seemed to contrast with positive commentary on demand and a rise in finished product inventories.

Answer

CEO Miguel de Souza Gularte explained that the BRF+ program has made the company's foundations more resilient across all segments, from the field to commercial execution, giving them confidence in sustained performance. CFO Fabio Mendes Mariano addressed the Brazil revenue, clarifying there was no change in demand. The volume dip was due to trade-offs (redirecting products to export), challenges from an inspector strike, and the strategic elimination of ~20% of unprofitable SKUs over the last nine months. Price was affected by mix changes and pressure in categories like margarine.

Thiago Duarte of BTG Pactual inquired about the projected decline in grain yields, particularly for soybeans, questioning if it stemmed from planting delays. He also sought confirmation on whether the previously guided soybean margin of BRL 1,700 to BRL 2,500 per hectare remains valid for the current harvest.

Answer

CEO André Guillaumon clarified that the diluted yield is not due to climate factors but is a result of incorporating 15,000 hectares of new, less productive land. He affirmed that the margin guidance of BRL 1,700-2,500 per hectare is still accurate, based on production costs of around BRL 4,000 per hectare. Regarding planting, he noted that while there are some delays in Mato Grosso, the company is managing the situation by focusing on areas without winter crop pressure and is prepared for potential excess rain in Bahia.