Thomas Fitzgerald

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen asked for an update on the deployment of Fetcher's AI-driven revenue management solutions. He also inquired about corporate demand trends for the post-Labor Day period and performance across different business sectors.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein reported that Fetcher's solutions are now deployed on about 3% of the domestic network, with a goal to reach 20% by year-end, emphasizing a careful, data-driven rollout. Regarding corporate demand, he noted that surveys indicate stable to higher spending, with banking, consulting, and technology sectors performing favorably, while autos and manufacturing are lagging.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for an update on the deployment of Fetcher's AI-powered revenue management solutions and inquired about corporate demand trends for the post-Labor Day period, including performance by sector.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein revealed that Fetcher's solutions are now deployed on about 3% of the domestic network, with a goal of 20% by year-end, noting they are in a heavy testing phase with encouraging results. Regarding corporate demand, he said survey results indicate stable to growing spend, with banking, consulting, and technology as favorable sectors, while autos and manufacturing are lagging.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for Delta's perspective on the risk of customer "trade-down" to low-cost carriers in the current environment. He also inquired about the potential impact of tariffs on Delta's cost structure, including aircraft, catering, and spare parts.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein expressed confidence that Delta's strong brand gives it "first call" on customers, which puts more pressure on lower-end carriers. CFO Dan Janki addressed the tariff risk by noting that Delta's supply base is 85% service-related, and the goods it procures are predominantly sourced in the U.S., mitigating direct impact.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for an update on trends across customer segments, including business versus leisure and different age cohorts, and also inquired about performance in core hubs amid recent competitive capacity shifts.

Answer

President Glen Hauenstein reported that 'boomers' are currently driving premium demand, with strong trends across both leisure and corporate travel, noting corporate sales were up 10% in Q4. While declining to give hub-specific data, he expressed confidence in the competitive dynamics across Delta's hubs, highlighting Boston's resilience.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen asked if Delta would consider launching an advertising network similar to a competitor and requested clarification on whether the fuel guidance assumes a refinery benefit or headwind.

Answer

CEO Ed Bastian stated that Delta is focused on providing value to customers through personalization, not monetizing them with ads. CFO Dan Janki confirmed that the fuel guide includes a headwind of a 'few cents loss' from the refinery.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked whether the company plans to host an Investor Day within the next 12 to 18 months. He also questioned the company's strategic direction, asking if it would remain focused on low-growth organic opportunities or if it would be open to M&A.

Answer

President and CEO Gregory Anderson confirmed that they plan to schedule an Investor Day, likely within the next year, as the business simplifies. Regarding M&A, he stated that while industry consolidation could be positive, Allegiant's primary focus is on improving its own margins and returning Q3 to profitability, which he believes can be achieved without M&A. However, they always evaluate all opportunities to drive shareholder value.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for specific metrics to support the claim that the new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft are outperforming expectations, both operationally and financially. He also asked for the reason behind the 17% decline in the 'sales and distribution' expense line.

Answer

CEO Greg Anderson reported that the MAX's dispatch reliability is a full point above the system average. Financially, he noted the MAX fleet generated a 35% higher EBITDA per aircraft in Q1 compared to a similarly configured A320. CFO Robert Neal added that the MAX also benefits from a maintenance honeymoon. Regarding expenses, Neal explained the decline in sales and distribution was primarily driven by a one-time settlement with a credit card processor, along with reduced advertising spend.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked about booking trends for the spring break period, including for Allegiant Extra, and questioned the strategy behind merchandising the premium seat as an ancillary product versus a distinct fare class.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Drew Wells reported that the middle weeks of March are booking well, though the Easter shift creates a headwind for the last week. He explained that merchandising Allegiant Extra as a separate ancillary product provides tax advantages and greater flexibility, a strategy the company plans to maintain for the foreseeable future.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for a walkthrough of the Navitaire reservation system optimization cadence in 2025 and requested a refresh on the 'airlines within the airlines' concept for managing a split fleet of Airbus and Boeing aircraft.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Drew Wells stated that the vast majority of the Navitaire system's financial benefits will be realized upon the full cutover in the second half of 2025. Executive Micah Richins explained the 'airlines within an airline' strategy involves isolating fleet types by base to mitigate operational complexity, noting the new MAX aircraft will be deployed on higher-utilization routes.

Thomas Fitzgerald from TD Cowen questioned the company's capital allocation philosophy, specifically the balance between shareholder returns and growth opportunities. He also asked if events like the 2026 World Cup could present an upside opportunity.

Answer

CEO Jude Bricker emphasized that the business is run for EPS and that free cash flow will be balanced between shareholder returns, opportunistic asset deals, and maintaining dry powder for potential industry shakeups. CFO Bill Trousdale added that inflationary pressures on aircraft assets are a consideration. Bricker noted the World Cup would likely be a slight negative.

Thomas Fitzgerald inquired about the new co-brand credit card agreement with Synchrony and its potential financial impact. He also asked about labor dynamics, including pilot upgrades, leveraging fixed costs, and the P&L impact of the new flight attendant contract.

Answer

CEO Jude Bricker stated the new Synchrony deal, launching in Q3, will significantly improve revenue share but the full P&L impact won't be felt until 2026. He noted the pilot shortage is over, with near-zero attrition, and the focus is on improving captain upgrades. CFO William Trousdale added that total cost per block hour (ex-fuel) is expected to grow in the low single digits for the year, indicating good cost control.

Thomas Fitzgerald from TD Cowen asked for clarification on the projected 30% block hour growth through 2027 and its breakdown by segment. He also inquired about the company's long-term strategy for adding new focus cities beyond Minneapolis.

Answer

CEO Jude Bricker and President and CFO David Davis clarified that the 30% growth figure is based on the passenger fleet, stemming from the redelivery of currently leased aircraft and improved utilization. Regarding new focus cities, management noted investments in markets like Milwaukee and Dallas but stated the priority for the next two years is restoring the network to 2024 levels after the cargo expansion, with new city growth being a longer-term opportunity.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked about the health of the booking window, specifically how 7-day rolling yields have trended recently, especially in Minneapolis. He also inquired about the expected seasonality of cargo block hours in 2026 once the Amazon fleet is fully deployed.

Answer

CEO Jude Bricker confirmed that 7-day trailing fares are up year-over-year across all future selling months with significant volume. He highlighted a favorable holiday calendar and late Easter as positive tailwinds for the winter season, with strong booking trends in key markets. For 2026 cargo seasonality, Bricker explained that the cargo business is very stable year-round, with the main variance driven by aircraft maintenance schedules, not demand, and this stability is expected to continue.

Thomas Fitzgerald from TD Cowen asked for a breakdown of the expected contributions from the four priority buckets of the JetForward plan for the remainder of the year. He also requested more detail on customer trends across different segments like leisure, VFR, loyalty, and corporate during Q2 and quarter-to-date.

Answer

CEO Joanna Geraghty explained that the incremental EBIT benefit from the JetForward plan is expected to be spread evenly across its four priority moves, with network ramping being a key driver in the second half of the year. President Marty St. George noted that customer trends mirror the industry, with strength in international and premium travel. He highlighted that despite network reductions on business routes, corporate revenue was flat year-over-year, a positive sign.

Thomas Fitzgerald inquired about the outlook for the spread between premium and core RASM for the second quarter and the remainder of the year. He also asked for observations on VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) versus leisure beach demand in Latin America.

Answer

President Martin St. George stated that he expects the gap between premium and core RASM not to widen, hoping that core RASM will improve as industry capacity adjusts to demand. On Latin America, he noted that VFR traffic has held up well, with no significant drops observed, particularly in key markets. He expressed cautious optimism that this segment remains resilient despite broader economic concerns.

Thomas Fitzgerald inquired about the competitive capacity environment in Fort Lauderdale and asked for perspective on non-aircraft CapEx, particularly for in-flight entertainment, Wi-Fi, and mobile app investments.

Answer

President Marty St. George noted that overall competitive capacity in Fort Lauderdale is down and that JetBlue is performing well there. CEO Joanna Geraghty highlighted the company's long-standing free Viasat Wi-Fi. CFO Ursula Hurley detailed that of the $1.4 billion in 2025 CapEx, 15% is for non-aircraft items like technology and ground equipment, while 85% is for aircraft-related investments.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked about the performance of the new Blue Basic carry-on bag policy, the seasonal rotation of Mint aircraft, and the strategic thinking behind removing hot food from transatlantic basic economy.

Answer

President Marty St. George reported that the Blue Basic carry-on bag addition has performed above expectations. He also called the seasonal rotation of Mint aircraft a 'fantastic formula,' successfully shifting planes from the Atlantic in summer to strong winter markets like Phoenix. CEO Joanna Geraghty defended the food change, describing the new cold meal as a 'fantastic core product' that is 'far superior' to competitor offerings, allowing for cost savings while maintaining a premium experience.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen requested a 'state of the union' on the pro rate and small community market recovery, asking about demand trends and gating factors. He also inquired about capital allocation priorities if aircraft delivery delays were to free up capital.

Answer

President & CEO Chip Childs and CCO Wade Steel both asserted that demand from small and mid-sized communities is stronger than ever, with supply chain issues being the primary constraint, not demand. On capital allocation, CFO Robert Simmons and CCO Wade Steel highlighted the company's flexibility, stating they have numerous options including share repurchases and extending the life of the existing CRJ fleet to maintain growth.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen asked about potential risks from the higher variable component in Capacity Purchase Agreements (CPAs) and the company's perspective on industry consolidation and M&A.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Wade Steel reassured that the fundamental protections in their contracts, such as minimum utilization, remain strong despite optimizations made during the pilot crisis. President and CEO Russell A. Childs stated that SkyWest's culture is not suited for large-scale M&A, referencing past negative experiences. He emphasized that SkyWest's strategy is focused on organic growth, acquiring assets, and acting as a strategic partner to help major airlines de-risk their business, rather than acquiring competitors.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen asked for insights into SkyWest's long-term fleet strategy beyond 2026, the impact of secular tailwinds like deurbanization, and clarification on the non-operating expense benefits related to the E175 fleet's debt.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Wade Steel outlined a stable fleet post-2026 with 278 E175s and fully deployed CRJ550s under long-term contracts. President and CEO Chip Childs added that the long-term strategy relies on fleet flexibility and strong partner relationships, hinting at potential future E175 orders. Chief Financial Officer Rob Simmons clarified that the non-operating benefit in Q4 was a one-time event from asset sales and should not be modeled on a run-rate basis.

Thomas Fitzgerald from TD Cowen inquired about the current opportunity set for 76-seat aircraft awards, asked about capital allocation strategy, specifically if a dividend was being considered, and requested an update on the momentum of the SkyWest Charter (SWC) business.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Wade Steel noted that while some 76-seat aircraft opportunities have been filled, strong demand remains, particularly in the small RJ scope. Chief Financial Officer Robert Simmons stated that the company is not considering reinstating a dividend at this time. CEO Chip Childs expressed strong optimism for the charter business, citing significantly higher bookings for the upcoming winter season and a continued commitment to pursuing community authority.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for an analysis of the Hawaiian franchise's outperformance, seeking to distinguish between merger synergy benefits and improved market dynamics. He also questioned the outlook for the franchise's performance into 2026.

Answer

CCO Andrew Harrison attributed the success to a combination of factors, including network connectivity synergies and stable industry capacity. CEO Ben Minicucci emphasized that Hawaiian's first profitable quarter since 2019 exceeded expectations, highlighting asset optimization like repositioning A330s. CFO Shane Tackett confirmed the expectation for continued profit improvement from Hawaiian assets in 2026.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for a comparison of demand and the competitive environment in California, contrasting San Diego with San Francisco and Los Angeles. He also questioned if the softer demand environment has altered the company's strategy regarding its premium product overhaul.

Answer

Executive Andrew Harrison acknowledged competitive capacity pressure in San Francisco but highlighted that San Diego has performed "very, very well," prompting further investment there. Regarding the premium product, Harrison stated he is "very excited" about the retrofits, as the first-class cabin has been largely unaffected by the macro environment and the additional seats are needed for the growing number of elite loyalty members.

Thomas Fitzgerald from TD Cowen asked for an update on the cargo business, including the Amazon flying operations. He also inquired about performance in California, specifically the San Diego focus market and intra-California routes.

Answer

EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Jason Berry stated that the cargo business is in its early days of integration but that Q4 performance was driven by new 737 freighters and the start of new Amazon business. He expects all 10 Amazon freighters to be operational by April. CCO Andrew Harrison noted that growth in San Diego has been absorbed well, while intra-California has been softer. He added that transcon routes from California are performing well.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked about the customer mix on the new routes to Mexico, specifically whether it's primarily U.S. point-of-sale leisure or if it includes VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) traffic.

Answer

CCO Andrew Harrison responded that the new Mexico routes are mostly expanding the core U.S. leisure, point-of-sale business. He noted these are 100% new revenue sources and are strategically timed to begin in December/January to bolster performance during the weaker winter period in the first quarter.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen asked about American's organic strategy for the New York market and the potential P&L impact from new Wi-Fi offerings versus an increasingly premium-heavy fleet.

Answer

CEO Robert Isom described the New York franchise as specialized and strong, centered on LaGuardia and the oneworld hub at JFK, with growth potential via upgauging. Regarding P&L impacts, he stated that the sponsored satellite Wi-Fi partnership with AT&T should mitigate financial headwinds, and that investments in the premium product are already factored into the capital plan and will not have a material impact.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen asked about any resilient sectors or green shoots in corporate travel and inquired about discussions with policymakers regarding the importance of smooth cross-border travel.

Answer

Vice Chair Steve Johnson described business travel as "pretty vibrant" across the board with no significant pullback yet. CEO Robert Isom detailed advocacy efforts with the government on improving travel infrastructure, including reducing visa wait times and modernizing air traffic control.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked if American is concerned about a potential revenue headwind if free WiFi becomes an industry standard. He also inquired if the company would consider accelerating debt paydown given that some CapEx is shifting to later dates.

Answer

CEO Robert Isom expressed no concern about free WiFi, stating American will remain competitive and that having a high-quality, high-speed product, which they are expanding, is the first priority. On capital allocation, CFO Devon May said they feel good about their $15 billion debt reduction goal and will evaluate options for 2025 maturities, including accelerated paydown, based on free cash flow and liquidity at the time.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen inquired about Volaris's pricing and RASM scenarios for the second half of 2025 and the expected timeline and financial contribution of the new in-house loyalty program, Altitude.

Answer

EVP Holger Blankenstein noted that constructive demand trends and recovering cross-border traffic should lead to better TRASM outcomes in the second half. Regarding the Altitude loyalty program, he explained it is designed to drive repeat travel but is not expected to have a material financial impact in 2025, as the focus is on scaling enrollment for future benefits.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen inquired about Volaris's pricing and RASM scenarios for the second half of 2025 and asked for details on the ramp-up timeline and potential revenue impact of the new 'Altitude' in-house loyalty program.

Answer

Holger Blankenstein, EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations, responded that demand trends have been constructive, with potential for cross-border traffic to recover, leading to stronger demand and better TRASM outcomes in the second half. Regarding the 'Altitude' program, he explained it is designed to reward repeat travel but is not expected to have a material financial impact in 2025, as the immediate focus is on scaling member enrollment.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked about the potential range for 2026 capacity growth under both recovery and downturn scenarios, and also questioned the rationality of competitive capacity deployment in the domestic market.

Answer

President and CEO Enrique Beltranena indicated a preliminary outlook of 'low single-digit growth' for 2026, emphasizing the current focus on managing 2025 capacity. Airline Executive Vice President Holger Blankenstein added that they are observing capacity moderation from peers, which they expect will support a TRASM recovery.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked if the Q4 aircraft ownership cost (DAR) represents a good run rate for 2025 and requested a reminder on how the Indigo order book is expected to create a long-term tailwind for these costs in 2026 and 2027.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Jaime Pous clarified that aircraft ownership costs would be higher in 2025 than the Q4 run rate. He explained that while FX currently impacts the right-of-use asset, future financing costs will benefit as grounded planes become productive without adding new fleet, thus not requiring deleveraging.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for the outlook on the 'other operating income' line for 2025 and requested color on booking and fare trends for early 2025 across U.S. and Mexico routes.

Answer

CFO Jaime Pous projected that other operating income will be slightly lower in 2025 as the number of grounded aircraft decreases. Airline EVP Holger Blankenstein described bookings as solid into the Q4 high season, with a healthy fare environment expected to continue into Q1 2025 as new trans-border capacity matures.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for more detail on the growth in other operating revenue from the ConnectMiles program and inquired about the long-term fleet size outlook for 2027-2028.

Answer

CFO Peter Donkersloot Ponce and CEO Pedro Heilbron explained that ConnectMiles revenue growth is steady and driven by expanding relationships with various non-air partners, particularly banks in new countries. Regarding the fleet, Heilbron outlined that of the 57 pending MAX deliveries, 13 are due this year, 6 in 2026, and the remainder over the following four years.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked about Copa's revenue management strategy in response to foreign exchange volatility and inquired about the demand outlook from corporate clients.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron clarified that the company prices in U.S. dollars but is exposed to translational FX impact on its net assets. He noted that Copa hedges half of its sales in Brazil to mitigate this risk. Regarding corporate travel, he stated that the share of business traffic is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with overall growth tied to capacity increases rather than a change in revenue mix.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen inquired about the performance of growth in major hub markets like LAX and JFK and requested specific growth metrics for the loyalty program, such as sign-ups and spend rates.

Answer

President James Dempsey stated they are 'quite encouraged' by performance in large markets like LAX and JFK, noting strong leisure and VFR traffic on the still-maturing routes. CCO Robert Schroeter declined to provide specific sign-up numbers but revealed that co-brand credit card spend was up 30% year-over-year, with overall program growth tracking to expectations.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked about the timeframe required to determine if a new route is successful before cutting it and requested an update on customer demographics given the recent product and loyalty program changes.

Answer

President James Dempsey explained that while the typical evaluation period is 6-12 months, the decision can be made much sooner based on booking trends or competitive dynamics, calling the process 'very fluid.' Chief Commercial Officer Bobby Schroeter stated that recent changes have attracted more business travelers and that incomes and FICO scores for new credit card applicants have gone up 'fairly dramatically,' indicating the new products are appealing to their target demographics.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen asked about the expected timeline to increase loyalty revenue per passenger from a few dollars to the $5-$7 range. He also inquired about the muted year-over-year fuel efficiency despite taking delivery of new A321neo aircraft.

Answer

CEO Barry Biffle estimated that reaching the $5 to $7 per passenger loyalty revenue target would likely take a couple of years. Regarding fuel efficiency, he explained that the metric is heavily impacted by stage length. The recent reduction in average stage length has masked some of the neo's efficiency gains, as benefits are most pronounced during the cruise phase of longer flights, while taxi and climb times remain fixed.

Thomas Fitzgerald from TD Cowen inquired about the reduction in the number of planned extra legroom seats compared to the Investor Day presentation. He also asked about long-term fleet and network strategies, such as regional jets or wide-bodies.

Answer

COO Andrew Watterson clarified that the cabin layout was refined to better monetize the entire cabin, concentrating extra legroom seats where they are most attractive and creating a 'preferred' seating zone elsewhere to maximize revenue per square foot. CEO Bob Jordan reiterated that Southwest has the strongest domestic network and most loyal customers, and will continue to evolve to meet their needs without dismissing the core differentiators like hospitality and operational excellence.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for an update on the revenue management system's impact and whether the company is benefiting from rising inter-island fares in Hawaii.

Answer

COO Andrew Watterson confirmed that new revenue management systems and processes implemented in Q2 are now providing a tailwind, driving yield growth on high-demand flights. He also stated that Hawaii RASM is increasing significantly, for both inter-island and mainland routes, with CEO Bob Jordan adding that future network changes should provide further benefits.

Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen asked for a long-term perspective on the international market amid geopolitical risks and inquired about the rollout cadence and potential share gains from Starlink WiFi.

Answer

EVP and CCO Andrew Nocella expressed bullishness on international markets, citing strong Q1 results and future growth supported by the order book. CEO Scott Kirby added that long-term international outperformance is likely due to structural supply constraints in aircraft and airport capacity. Regarding Starlink, Nocella highlighted its importance for the customer experience and its link to the MileagePlus program, noting it's part of a broader, effective investment strategy.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for an update on the deployment of generative AI beyond customer search and inquired about the potential for expanding in Florida, possibly with a new hub, given the focus on 'sunshine capacity.'

Answer

CEO Scott Kirby highlighted GenAI's use in improving customer communications during disruptions and interpreting complex labor contracts, calling it a key technology embedded throughout the organization. EVP and CCO Andrew Nocella stated that while the Florida franchise is successful, the company's focus remains on maximizing growth and connectivity at its seven existing hubs.

Thomas Fitzgerald asked for the expected contribution from MileagePlus and Kinective Media to 2025 margin expansion and inquired about the customer and brand reaction to the Kinective platform.

Answer

EVP & CFO Mike Leskinen clarified that 2025 is an 'investment phase' for Kinective, with material contribution not expected until 2026 and beyond. EVP & CCO Andrew Nocella added that MileagePlus is performing well, with revenue from Premier members up 9%, but noted Kinective's activities have been too small to generate customer reaction yet.