Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith • Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

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CFO Charlotte Simonelli explained that agent mix, where top-performing agents handle a larger share of transactions, is the primary driver of commission splits. She also attributed the quarterly decline in corporate EBITDA to the timing of bonus and benefits allocations and highlighted that materially higher employee benefit costs impacted results in the first half of the year.

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CFO Charlotte Simonelli explained the drag was due to several planned investments: recruiting high-producing agents, technology investments for the 'Reimagine 25' program with savings weighted to the second half of the year, and the build-out phase of the 'upward' title joint ventures. CEO Ryan Schneider added that the primary success metric for 'upward' is bottom-line profitability, complemented by strategic benefits like attracting and retaining franchisees.

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CEO Ryan Schneider revealed that, surprisingly, over 80% of buyers are signing the 6-month exclusive agreement, indicating strong agent value communication. He believes consumer shopping happens during agent selection, not by comparing physical contracts. Regarding M&A, Schneider confirmed Anywhere would be a cash buyer, using its ample liquidity and positive free cash flow, and noted that synergies from deals provide a competitive advantage.

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CEO Ryan Schneider explained that the strong October performance was surprisingly consistent throughout the month, even as mortgage rates rose, and was geographically widespread. Regarding AI, he compared its future impact to the internet, predicting it will permeate all operations to drive efficiency, create better and faster experiences, and ultimately contribute to a consolidation of agents in the industry, which he views as a positive trend.

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COO Robert Bailenson clarified that the higher-rated issuance was a business mix shift due to market volatility and does not change their full-year outlook. CEO Dominic Frederico added that the strong issuance volume shows robust underlying demand. On competition, Frederico stated it's the same single competitor as in the primary market, but Assured Guaranty is better positioned for larger, higher-rated credits. CFO Benjamin Rosenblum explained the Asset Management segment's strength was due to booking Sound Point's typically strong fourth-quarter results on a one-quarter lag.

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CEO Dominic Frederico and executive Robert Tucker stated they have no significant D.C. market exposure that causes them concern. On health care, Dominic Frederico explained that it's an operating risk driven by factors like high labor costs, but the company has an exceptional track record of managing these situations. Regarding PREPA, Frederico expressed confidence in their legal position, citing the successful LBIE litigation as a model, and stated that while government help would be welcome, they are prepared to pursue their rights through litigation for as long as it takes.

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CFO Benjamin Rosenblum stated that while the rate determination is being watched, it is not expected to significantly change their loss numbers as the issue is expected to play out over the next year. President and CEO Dominic Frederico added that there are no direct historical precedents due to the unique nature of these regulated monopolies and confirmed the company would not purchase uninsured bonds, as it would simply increase exposure without a loss mitigation benefit.

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CFO Craig Howie explained that the acquisition expense ratio increased due to a business mix shift towards higher-commission casualty and pro rata business in the Bermuda segment and property binders in International, as well as higher profit commissions. He noted the other underwriting expense ratio continues to decline with scale. CEO Pina Albo addressed the casualty growth, stating that Hamilton's relatively recent and modest entry into the space, combined with its A.M. Best upgrade, creates a unique opportunity to selectively partner with high-quality clients as larger, long-time players pull back. She noted Hamilton takes small shares (1-2%) on these quota share deals to manage exposure. Craig Howie clarified the 7.9% Two Sigma return was the year-to-date figure through April 30.

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CFO Craig Howie explained that the increase in the acquisition expense ratio was driven by a business mix shift towards casualty, pro rata business, and property binders, as well as higher profit commissions. He noted the other underwriting expense ratio continues to decline with scale. CEO Giuseppina Albo expressed conviction in their casualty growth due to their modest historical exposure, the opportune timing of their A.M. Best upgrade, a highly selective client strategy, and the use of small, balanced line sizes. Craig Howie clarified the 7.9% Two Sigma return was a year-to-date figure through April 30, 2025.

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Craig Howie, Group CFO, stated that Hamilton continues to target a better expense ratio each year as the company scales. He also explained that the share buyback program has flexibility, with capital available at the holding company but predominantly sourced from dividends from the operating companies. He noted $140 million remains on the authorization.

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CEO Alex Timm explained that the direct channel saw exceptionally strong seasonal growth in Q1, which tempered the partnership channel's mix percentage; he expects the partnership share to increase for the remainder of the year. Both Timm and CFO Megan Binkley noted that Q1 is typically the strongest quarter for marketing spend due to tax season. Regarding state expansion, Timm described a measured approach, launching with conservative pricing and ramping up marketing over 6 to 12 months as they gain confidence in loss cost data.

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CEO Alex Timm stated that while modest rate decreases may apply pressure, growth in the partnership and independent agency channels, which have higher-value policies, should keep premium per policy flat to modestly increasing. He declined to share specific retention data but noted churn has normalized. CFO Megan Binkley confirmed that the Q4 reinsurance cession rate of approximately 9% is a good run rate for the future, as the company's focus has shifted to per-risk and catastrophe covers.

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CEO Alex Timm confirmed plans to reinvest profits into growth, focusing on expanding partnerships and entering new marketing channels and geographies. CFO Megan Binkley added that while spending will increase, it will remain disciplined and dependent on market conditions, without providing specific guidance. Timm also explained that retention rates are improving as the policy book matures post-hypergrowth and that the partnership channel exhibits significantly higher retention and premium per policy compared to the direct channel.

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CFO Keith Meier explained that the mobile tariff impact is mitigated by risk-sharing program structures and collaboration with clients' large, developed supply chains. President and CEO Keith Demmings added that the monthly-pay nature of the business allows for nimble adjustments. Regarding guidance, Mr. Demmings confirmed it was a fair interpretation, noting the Lifestyle outlook now more fully incorporates macro and tariff impacts, though the segment is still expected to grow.

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CEO Keith Demmings confirmed that the $25 million invested in 2024 is expected to generate a corresponding $25 million in positive EBITDA in 2025. He stated that the 2025 investments are for entirely new programs with different 'marquee brand' clients. Regarding the Housing segment, Mr. Demmings said that despite the growth and scale, they expect a strong mid-80s combined ratio for 2025, even with the impact of California wildfires, and will reassess the long-term target as the year progresses.

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President and CEO Keith Demmings stated that the monetization for new subscribers is 'pretty well aligned' with their standard model. He confirmed that the 2024 investment spend of $21 million year-to-date will sunset, with a new bucket of investments planned for 2025 to support strong commercial momentum. For Q4, Demmings cited trade-in seasonality and revenue from new clients as key growth drivers. CFO Keith Meier added that they expect increased promotional activity in Q4 related to the new iPhone cycle.

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CFO Timothy Bixby reported that approximately half of new Car sales now come from existing customers, an increase from about one-third previously. He clarified that the Chewy partnership is performing well and that only the warrant agreement was terminated to switch commission payments from equity to cash, with the commercial relationship remaining strong and unchanged.

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CEO and Co-Founder Daniel Schreiber clarified that while absolute growth spend will continue to increase beyond 2025, the rate of that increase will decline, which is a key component of the plan to reach EBITDA breakeven. He affirmed that cross-selling is a highly efficient growth lever that will become increasingly powerful. For 2025, he indicated a gradual strategic shift where the car insurance product will begin to represent a larger portion of growth, complementing the existing drivers of pet and renters insurance.

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President Shai Wininger and CFO Timothy Bixby detailed the path to profitability, emphasizing tremendous operational efficiency, where top-line and gross profit growth far outpace expense growth. They highlighted that this dynamic has been consistent and is the primary driver. On cross-selling, Bixby noted that about 4.6% of customers are multi-policy, a stable percentage that indicates significant growth in absolute numbers, with these customers showing stronger retention and risk profiles.

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Executive Patrick Thompson clarified that 'scaling back' the under-65 business is a partial reduction, not a full exit, and the business will be 'rebaselining.' He described the Medicare Advantage market as being in a temporary 'hard market cycle' but expressed long-term optimism due to favorable demographics. Executive Steven Yi added that a more favorable regulatory and political climate could benefit Medicare Advantage carriers, citing recent positive CMS payment rate updates.

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CFO Mark Jones Jr. confirmed active discussions with large mortgage servicers, highlighting the significant market opportunity and Goosehead's capacity to scale. Regarding margins, he reiterated the full-year goal of growing Core Revenue faster than expenses but declined to provide specific quarterly guidance due to the timing of strategic initiatives.

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CFO Mark Jones Jr. explained the large contingent commission was due to better-than-expected core loss ratio performance from major carriers. While guiding conservatively for 2025, he affirmed the long-term normalized range of 80-85 basis points remains unchanged. He added that Goosehead expects core EBITDA margin to expand as core revenue outpaces expense growth, though total margin could see puts and takes from the lower contingent commission forecast.

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CEO Mark Miller affirmed that home closing transactions remain the primary go-to-market strategy, with the company adding more referral partners to maintain lead flow. CFO Mark Jones Jr. noted that new agents are performing well on a tenure-adjusted basis despite the tough housing market. Regarding hurricanes, he explained they cause temporary new business moratoriums that can shift revenue between quarters but typically do not impact long-term results.

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Chief Financial Officer Stewart Ellis explained the sale of subrogation rights was an economic decision based on the attractive present value of the proceeds versus a future legal recovery, and was not driven by liquidity needs. Both Ellis and CEO Rick McCathron clarified that the loss barely penetrated the first of three reinsurance layers, having no meaningful impact on protection for the rest of the year. Regarding full-year guidance, McCathron deferred detailed projections to the company's Investor Day on June 12, though Ellis noted that full-year trends could be inferred from existing guidance on revenue, loss ratios, and operating expenses.

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President and CEO Rick McCathron explained the shell carrier was a dormant, redundant asset that they could monetize. He also stated that while HHIP is writing new business, the IaaS and Services segments will remain the primary growth drivers in the short term. CFO Stewart Ellis characterized the share buyback as an opportunistic use of proceeds from the First Connect sale, noting the company will continue to look for such opportunities as it nears profitability.

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