Thomas Palmer

Thomas Palmer inquired about the competitive landscape in the club channel, specifically whether smaller insurgent brands are continuing to enter or if a shakeout of less successful brands is occurring.

Answer

President and CEO Darcy Horn Davenport explained that the category is dynamic, with about 10% market share held by insurgent and crossover brands. She confirmed that some brands have not made it, especially in club where thresholds are high, and expects this 10% share to persist but with a different set of competing brands. She also noted that 30% of the category consists of declining legacy brands that continue to be share donors.

Thomas Palmer asked for a more detailed breakdown of the 280 basis point year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA margin, specifically bridging the remaining 120 basis points after accounting for tariffs and increased advertising.

Answer

CFO Paul Rode detailed that the decline is primarily driven by lower gross margins due to low to mid-single-digit input cost inflation (especially whey protein), increased promotional activity, and tariffs (80 bps impact). SG&A is expected to be modestly down, with advertising (80 bps headwind) partially offset by G&A leverage. He noted the largest margin headwinds are in the first half of the year.

Thomas Palmer sought clarification on the 280 basis point year-over-year decline in EBITDA margin, specifically bridging the remaining 120 basis points after accounting for tariffs and advertising.

Answer

Paul Rode, CFO, BellRing Brands, clarified that the 280 basis point decline is primarily due to lower gross margins, with SG&A modestly down (advertising being an 80 bps headwind, partially offset by G&A leverage). Within gross margins, he cited low to mid-single-digit inflation (especially whey protein for powders, offset by late Q1 pricing), modest inflation on shakes, and cost-savings initiatives impacting the second half. He noted that the first half of the year faces the biggest margin headwinds due to strong prior-year comps, inflation, and stepped-up promotions.

Thomas Palmer inquired about the drivers behind the retailer inventory reductions, questioning if it's a one-time reset given that BellRing's consumption trends remain strong.

Answer

CFO Paul Rode explained the inventory change is a timing dynamic, not a reflection of demand. He attributed it primarily to club store customers who had carried higher inventory levels after BellRing's prior supply constraints and are now optimizing their stock. He believes it is a one-time event unique to BellRing's situation.

Thomas Palmer of Citigroup asked for clarification on the timing and drivers of cost inflation for the fiscal year and questioned the promotional intensity and pricing actions in the Dymatize category given escalating costs.

Answer

CFO Paul Rode confirmed the full-year cost inflation outlook remains at mid-single digits, driven by whey and milk proteins, with costs now expected to be slightly more favorable in the first half and unfavorable in the second. President and CEO Darcy Davenport added that for Dymatize, they have not yet seen price increases or a significant pullback in promotions from competitors, but expect changes later in the year as higher protein costs flow through P&Ls.

Thomas Palmer asked for a refresher on the company's pricing plans and sought to confirm the magnitude of inflation and its impact on the shake and powder businesses.

Answer

CFO Paul Rode confirmed a mid-single-digit price increase was taken on Premier shakes late in Q4, which is expected to cover inflation on that part of the business. He noted that the powder business faces significant inflation, with whey protein costs up about 50%, creating a margin headwind after a favorable fiscal 2024. No new pricing on powders is planned, but it is being evaluated.

Thomas Palmer asked about Lamb Weston's strategy for rebalancing supply and demand, specifically inquiring if temporary production pullbacks or more substantial actions, similar to past North American plant closures, are anticipated in Europe. He also asked about North America's volume drivers for the second half, considering less price investment and potential seasonal upticks in Q3.

Answer

CEO Michael Smith confirmed the curtailment of a single production line in the European market as part of global supply chain rebalancing efforts. CFO Bernadette Madarieta added that North America's gross margins in the back half would be affected by a higher proportion of business with multinational chain customers and a shift from branded to private label in retail, moderating typical seasonal trends.

Thomas Palmer from Citi questioned the drivers behind the significant Q4 gross margin decline, particularly the fixed cost absorption headwind, and asked for an update on the progress of working through excess inventory.

Answer

Executive Bernadette Madarieta clarified that Q4's margin reflects costs from a full quarter of curtailed production, unlike Q3, leading to higher fixed cost absorption. She attributed the remainder of the decline to miscellaneous input costs. CEO Mike Smith and Bernadette Madarieta confirmed they are actively managing inventory down towards a target of approximately 65 days by year-end.

Thomas Palmer asked to what extent pricing was the determinant for unexpected customer losses versus service issues, and inquired about how aggressively the company plans to execute its share buyback program.

Answer

CFO Bernadette Madarieta clarified that customer losses were driven by a more competitive pricing environment and were not related to ERP or other service factors. Regarding capital returns, she stated that with more free cash flow expected in the second half of the year, the company will be "opportunistically" in the market buying back shares, supported by the newly increased authorization.

Thomas Palmer asked for confirmation that full-year sales growth is still expected to be volume-driven. He also questioned why fixed cost deleverage from line closures is an added pressure now if the overall volume outlook for the year is unchanged from the prior quarter.

Answer

CFO Bernadette Madarieta confirmed that full-year sales growth is still expected to be driven by volume. She clarified that the deleverage impact comes from *temporarily* idled lines, where fixed costs are allocated over fewer pounds, an action taken to help manage down elevated finished goods inventory levels. The permanent closure of the Connell facility, however, is a cost benefit.

Thomas Palmer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the breakdown of the $400 million in e-commerce profitability improvements, specifically how much is attributable to depreciation versus other operating costs. He also asked whether the planned reinvestments were pre-planned initiatives that now have better funding, or if they represent entirely new, incremental investments.

Answer

CFO David Kennerley confirmed that the $400 million in savings is split across both operating profit (EBITDA-like, cash-related) and depreciation components. He explained that the reinvestment provides fuel for both likely pre-planned investments and incremental flexibility for new initiatives, with more details to follow in 2026 guidance. Chairman and CEO Ron Sargent reiterated the focus on making the fast-growing e-commerce business profitable as a key part of Kroger's future.

Thomas Palmer asked about the expected trajectory of FIFO gross margin, excluding fuel and specialty pharmacy, for the second half of the year, given its decline in Q2. He also inquired about the ongoing CEO search, specifically what traits Kroger is seeking in a new CEO and if any business areas are being held off from review or decision-making until a permanent CEO is appointed.

Answer

David Kennerley, EVP & CFO, stated that the full-year FIFO gross margin, excluding fuel, is expected to be relatively flat, balancing price offerings with margin initiatives. He noted that core business gross margins were healthy when excluding the impact of pharmacy mix. Ronald Sargent, Interim CEO & Chairman, confirmed that no business areas are being held off; the company is moving aggressively. He mentioned the search committee is looking for critical experiences, competencies, and personal attributes like leadership and people skills, acknowledging the unique scale of the company.

Thomas Palmer from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on expected segment performance moving from Q3 to Q4 2025, specifically which segments might see a step down or improvement, and inquired about an updated view of Bunge's mid-cycle earnings target, given the Viterra acquisition and previous $11 target.

Answer

John Knepel, Bunge's Chief Financial Officer, projected a softer Q4 for soybean processing and refining and softseed processing and refining due to policy uncertainty and customer behavior, while expecting meaningful improvement in the grain merchandising and milling segment due to harvest timing. He stated that an updated mid-cycle earnings view, along with strategic planning and capital allocation, would be shared at the investor day in March, incorporating the combined company's profile and mega projects.

Thomas Palmer sought clarification on segment expectations moving from Q3 to Q4 2025, specifically which segments might see a step down or improvement given the implied lower earnings outlook. He also asked for an update on Bunge's mid-cycle earnings view, last updated at $11 with upside for M&A, considering the recent large M&A.

Answer

CFO John Knepel expects softer Q4 results in soybean and softseed processing and refining due to market uncertainty, while grain merchandising and milling is anticipated to see meaningful improvement due to harvest timing. He also noted a less negative corporate and other segment. Regarding mid-cycle earnings, Mr. Knepel stated that Bunge plans to share an updated view at their investor day in March, incorporating strategic planning, capital allocation, and the combined company's capabilities.

Thomas Palmer asked for an update on the expected cadence of earnings for the year and what assumptions about U.S. biofuels policy and U.S.-China trade are embedded in the full-year guidance.

Answer

CFO John Neppl stated that the overall first-half/second-half earnings split of 40/60 remains, but the Q1/Q2 dynamic has shifted to approximately 60/40 due to a pull-forward of earnings. CEO Greg Heckman clarified that the guidance only reflects the current market environment and forward curves, without making any speculative calls on future policy or trade changes.

Thomas Palmer requested a comparison of the 2025 guidance against the company's previously established $8.50 mid-cycle earnings outlook and asked about the communication plan following the Viterra transaction's close.

Answer

CFO John Neppl detailed the variances from the 2022 mid-cycle model, citing lower processing volumes, reduced merchandising volatility assumptions, and higher interest costs, which are largely offset by increased share buybacks and stronger-than-modeled margins in Refined & Specialty Oils. He stated that Bunge plans to provide an updated outlook for the combined company on the Q1 earnings call, post-close.

Thomas Palmer questioned whether Viterra's recent results alter Bunge's long-term earnings view for the combined entity. He also asked about the expected pace of farmer selling in South America heading into the first half of 2025.

Answer

CEO Greg Heckman stated that Viterra's recent performance does not change their confidence in the deal's long-term value. CFO John Neppl added that the delayed closing has allowed for more detailed integration planning. Regarding farmer selling, Heckman anticipates it will pick up in the first half of 2025 as farmers in Argentina gain policy clarity and a large South American crop materializes.

Thomas Palmer asked about the most likely timeline for clarity on outstanding regulatory items such as the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO), exemptions, and reallocation. He also inquired about the feed outlook for the fourth quarter, considering recent dips in waste fat prices and how it aligns with the core ingredients EBITDA guidance.

Answer

CFO Bob Day indicated optimism for clarity on regulatory items by the end of the year, specifically in December, despite the government shutdown, as the RVO is considered an essential process. CEO Randall Stuewe explained that the $875 million to $900 million EBITDA guidance range for core ingredients accounts for the uncertainty in waste fat prices, noting strong demand in Brazil, Canada, and Europe, and expecting a stronger food segment in Q4.

Thomas Palmer asked about the most likely timeline for clarity on outstanding regulatory items, including the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO), exemptions, and reallocation. He also inquired if waste fat prices needed to rebound for the core ingredients business's Q4 performance to be comparable to Q3.

Answer

Robert Day (CFO) indicated optimism for clarity on RVO and related policies by the end of December, despite the government shutdown, as the RVO is considered an essential process. Randall Stuewe (CEO) explained that the $875-$900 million guidance range accounts for some uncertainty, noting that waste fat prices have dipped due to policy uncertainty, but strong demand in Brazil, Canada, and Europe, along with expected stronger food segment performance, should keep Q4 close to the range.

Thomas Palmer of Citigroup asked for clarification on whether the expectation of a 5.25 billion gallon RVO is incorporated into the company's full-year 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO Randall Stuewe confirmed that the potential 5.25 billion gallon RVO, which applies to 2026, is not baked into the 2025 guidance. He noted that while it is bullish for the base business long-term, the current guidance is based on existing market conditions. CFO Bob Day added that such a mandate would significantly increase RIN demand in 2026, a factor he believes the market has not yet fully priced in.

Thomas Palmer inquired about the drivers for the implied Q4 earnings improvement and the competitive outlook for the Food segment, particularly regarding new capacity and product rollouts.

Answer

CEO Randall C. Stuewe cited seasonal operational improvements, higher fat prices, and a better collagen business outlook for the Q4 guidance, noting it excludes potential SAF shipment revenue. Chief Strategy Officer Bob Day added that while new capacity has pressured gelatin margins, they expect stabilization in 2025, supported by new, higher-margin collagen products.

Thomas Palmer asked for an update on the progress of expanding Hostess distribution, a key initiative mentioned at the Investor Day. He also sought clarification on the company's tariff exposure beyond green coffee and whether the guided $0.25 headwind is inclusive of coffee-related tariffs.

Answer

CEO & Chair of the Board Mark Smucker confirmed good progress on Hostess distribution, noting gains in permanent seasonal shelf space with large retailers. CFO Tucker Marshall detailed tariff exposures across direct materials (green coffee), retaliatory tariffs (on exports to Canada), co-manufactured products, and capital goods. He confirmed the $0.25 net impact is after pricing actions and over-indexes to coffee.

Thomas Palmer requested a breakdown of the investment and start-up costs for frozen handhelds and spreads in Q3 and Q4. He also asked if the pet food supply chain disruptions would linger into Q4 and if they impacted brand support.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall stated that Q3 costs for frozen handhelds and spreads were in line with or slightly better than the prior year, with elevated marketing to continue in Q4. He confirmed the $30 million pet food supply chain disruption was a one-time Q3 event that is now behind them, with no material impact or incremental investment expected in Q4.

Thomas Palmer asked for a quantification of the investment and startup cost headwinds for frozen handhelds and spreads in Q3 and Q4. He also asked if the pet segment's supply chain disruptions would linger into Q4.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall stated that Q3 costs for frozen handhelds were in line with or slightly better than the prior year, with Q4 expected to be slightly better year-over-year despite continued elevated marketing. Regarding the pet segment, he confirmed the $30 million Q3 supply chain disruption is a one-time issue that is now behind them, with no material impact expected to carry over into Q4.

Thomas Palmer inquired about the progress and customer reception of the planned changes for the Hostess brand and sought confirmation on the financial impact of stranded costs from the pet segment divestiture for this year and next.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker confirmed that discussions with key customers about Hostess brand initiatives have been positive, focusing on a partnership approach to grow the category. CFO Tucker Marshall clarified that the company will absorb a $0.60 net impact from stranded overhead this fiscal year, which is expected to become a tailwind to year-over-year growth in fiscal 2026 as those costs are mitigated.

Thomas Palmer asked about the customer reception to planned changes for Sweet Baked Snacks and sought clarification on the financial impact of stranded costs from the pet segment divestiture for the current and next fiscal year.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker reported that discussions with key customers about Hostess plans have been positive, emphasizing a partnership approach to grow the entire category. CFO Tucker Marshall confirmed the Transition Services Agreement with Post Holdings is complete and the net impact of stranded overhead is a $0.60 headwind this fiscal year. He stated these costs are being mitigated and should not be a drag on year-over-year growth in fiscal '26, implying it will be a tailwind.

Thomas Palmer requested quantification of 'Transform and Modernize' savings from the first half and asked about the drivers for the full-year range. He also inquired about the recent inventory build and visibility on its sell-through.

Answer

CFO Jacinth Smiley stated the T&M initiative is on track but did not quantify H1 savings, instead highlighting project examples like a facility closure and a new distribution center. She explained the inventory build was a strategic decision for summer demand for brands like Planters and SPAM, with higher commodity costs also impacting the dollar value. CEO Jim Snee clarified that while inventory dollars are up, inventory pounds are down.

Thomas Palmer sought clarification on the Planters recovery, asking about the progress on regaining distribution and the expected ramp in marketing and slotting investments. He also asked about the inflation in pork, beef, and nuts, and whether pricing actions were being considered for those commodities similar to turkey.

Answer

EVP John Ghingo stated that the Planters facility is fully recovered and that while some distribution has been regained, other gains are tied to customer shelf reset schedules. He expects sequential progress in Q2 against a tough prior-year comparison, with a stronger recovery in the second half. CEO James Snee addressed input costs, noting that while pork, beef, and nuts were slightly above plan, the company can manage these fluctuations through pass-through mechanisms, and the impact is not on the same scale as the pressures in the turkey business.

Thomas Palmer sought to bridge the gap between expected cost savings and organic sales growth versus the midpoint of operating profit guidance, asking for clarification on headwinds. He also questioned the reasons for the slow ramp-up at the Suffolk facility and the confidence that issues would be resolved after Q1.

Answer

CFO Jacinth Smiley clarified that the T&M initiative includes reinvestment for growth, not just cost savings, and noted headwinds from depressed turkey prices and double-digit investments in brand advertising. CEO Jim Snee stated that production concerns at the Suffolk facility are 'largely resolved.' EVP of Retail John Ghingo detailed that Q1 will focus on refilling shelves, with promotions and advertising ramping up in Q2 to recapture momentum for the Planters brand.

Thomas Palmer asked about ADM's expectations for the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) and how it influences the outlook for biodiesel and crush margins in the second half of 2025.

Answer

CEO Juan Luciano stated that a strong RVO is the most important driver for the biofuel outlook and expects margins to rise to increase industry run rates. CFO Monish Patolawala provided specific margin figures, noting Q2 crush margins were trending lower than Q1 but expects a ramp-up in the second half, adjusting the full-year soy crush margin guidance to a wider range of $40 to $65 per ton.

Thomas Palmer asked for clarification on the expected profit recovery in the Nutrition segment, questioning the drivers behind the significant implied improvement in the second half of the year given stated headwinds.

Answer

CEO Juan Luciano explained the recovery is based on three factors: the Decatur plant coming back online in Q2, continued strong growth in the high-performing Flavors and Biotics businesses, and steady margin improvement in Animal Nutrition. CFO Monish Patolawala added that Q1 profit, adjusted for insurance, is expected to be sequentially flat with Q4 2024.

Thomas Palmer inquired about potential cost-saving or resizing opportunities within the Human Nutrition business, given that some end markets have not progressed as anticipated. He also asked if an elevated maintenance CapEx cycle is needed for the crush operations due to recent unexpected downtime.

Answer

Chair and CEO Juan Luciano explained that Human Nutrition results are significantly impacted by the Decatur East plant downtime. He noted that despite some market softness, the Flavors and Health & Wellness businesses are still showing organic growth. Regarding CapEx, Luciano stated that while a few North American plants had issues, they are now improving, and the company is focused on deploying automation and digitization projects to enhance efficiency rather than just maintenance.

Thomas Palmer of Citigroup requested insights into third-quarter expectations and seasonality across segments. He also asked for a follow-up on the specific drivers behind the recent strength in the International business.

Answer

CFO Curt Calaway declined to give quarterly guidance but reiterated that for the full year, the Chicken segment is expected to perform at or above the midpoint of its range. CEO Donnie King provided a high-level overview of strong execution across segments. Group President Devin Cole re-emphasized that the International segment's strength stems from executing a defined strategy focused on operational fundamentals and commercial growth.

Thomas Palmer of Citi inquired about the new network optimization plan mentioned in the 10-Q and asked for more detail on the value-added products that contributed to the Beef segment's better-than-expected performance.

Answer

CFO Curt Calaway explained that the network optimization plan is an ongoing effort to improve efficiency across all segments without a specific publicly-stated savings target. Brady Stewart, Group President of Beef and Pork, attributed the strong beef results to excellent execution and strong demand for value-added products, specifically highlighting end cuts and grinds, including lean beef grinds and patties.

Thomas Palmer of Citigroup Inc. asked for specific drivers of the expected growth in the Prepared Foods segment and inquired about the quarterly cadence of this growth in fiscal 2025.

Answer

CEO Donnie King and Kyle Narin, Group President of Prepared Foods, attributed the growth to a multiyear strategy focused on operational discipline. Narin highlighted improved yields, throughput, service levels, and distribution gains on core items and new innovations. He stated that over 100% of the expected FY25 profit growth is based on controllable improvements. CFO Curt Calaway added that the profit growth is expected to be more balanced across the quarters of FY25 compared to historical patterns.

Thomas Palmer asked how contingent the 2027 margin targets are on achieving the 2027 sales target and if there were levers to hit those margin goals even with lower-than-planned sales.

Answer

CFO Todd Cunfer acknowledged that faster growth helps but affirmed they have tools to hit margin targets, such as controlling hiring and deploying new technology. CEO William Cyr added that strong operational performance provides a cushion, and slower demand could even accelerate the rollout of new, margin-enhancing technologies, potentially allowing them to achieve margin goals regardless of the top-line outcome.

Thomas Palmer sought quantification on two timing-related items: a quality cost benefit in Q3 expected to reverse, and the status of a gross margin leverage benefit from Q1.

Answer

CFO Todd Cunfer specified that the quality cost timing benefit was approximately 50 basis points in Q3, which will reverse in Q4. He also stated that only a very small portion of the 100 basis point inventory leverage benefit from Q1 has reversed, and most of it is expected to hold through the end of the year.

Thomas Palmer asked for quantification on two timing-related items: the quality cost benefit in Q3 that is expected to reverse, and whether the operating leverage benefit on gross margin from Q1 had fully reversed.

Answer

Executive Todd Cunfer quantified the Q3 quality cost timing benefit at approximately 50 basis points, which is expected to reverse in Q4. He also stated that only a very small portion of the 100 basis point inventory-related benefit from Q1 has reversed, and most of it is expected to hold due to the company's rapid growth.

Thomas Palmer asked for color on the tariff exposure beyond cocoa and Canada and questioned the nature of the volume headwind in salty snacks from reduced private label manufacturing.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil noted other tariff exposures include imported raw materials, with some from China, but they are smaller than cocoa and Canada. He explained the private label reduction is a strategic choice to redirect manufacturing capacity to the strongly growing branded Dot's business.

Thomas Palmer inquired about the revised COGS inflation outlook, asking for a breakdown between tariffs and other drivers, its timing, and whether the unchanged pricing outlook implies a mix of price investments and new pricing actions.

Answer

Executive Andre Maciel detailed that base COGS inflation rose from 3% to 5% due to commodities like coffee and meat, with potential tariffs adding another 150-200 bps, expected mainly in the second half. He clarified the new guidance does not include further price investments beyond the previously planned 100 bps; instead, incremental funds are directed to marketing, product renovation, and sampling.

Thomas Palmer inquired about the revised COGS inflation outlook, asking for a breakdown between tariffs and other drivers, its timing, and whether the pricing outlook now includes incremental pricing to offset it.

Answer

CFO Andre Maciel stated that base COGS inflation guidance increased from 3% to 5% due to commodities like coffee and meat, with new tariffs expected to add another 150-200 bps, primarily in the second half. He clarified that the new guidance does not include further price investments beyond the initial 100 bps, with incremental funds directed toward marketing, media, and product renovation.

Thomas Palmer of Citigroup Inc. inquired about the drivers of the updated COGS inflation guidance, specifically the impact of tariffs, and asked for clarification on the pricing strategy.

Answer

EVP & Global CFO Andre Maciel explained that base COGS inflation rose from 3% to 5%, with tariffs adding an estimated 150-200 bps, primarily in the second half. He clarified that the pricing outlook is unchanged, with incremental investments focused on marketing and product renovation, not deeper price cuts.

Thomas Palmer of Citi questioned why the Hog Production outlook was not raised given the profitable Q1 and positive commentary for Q2 and Q3. He also asked for clarity on the expected sequential profitability trend for the Packaged Meats segment in the second quarter.

Answer

President & CEO Shane Smith responded that despite strong Q2/Q3 futures, the company remains cautious on the Hog Production outlook due to potential revenue volatility from tariffs and expected seasonal losses in Q4. Regarding Packaged Meats, President of Fresh Pork Donovan Owens noted that a cautious consumer and trade-downs could compress margins year-over-year in Q2. He added that while raw material costs have eased from Q1, they remain elevated compared to the prior year, which may impact margins as formula pricing adjusts.

Thomas Palmer of Citigroup Inc. questioned why the Hog Production outlook wasn't raised given the profitable Q1 and positive expectations for Q2/Q3. He also asked for clarity on the expected profitability flow-through for Packaged Meats in Q2, both sequentially and year-over-year.

Answer

CEO Shane Smith responded that while Q2 and Q3 look strong for Hog Production, the company remains cautious due to potential revenue volatility from tariffs and expects normal seasonal losses in Q4, believing the current forecast is appropriate. Donovan Owens, President of Fresh Pork, noted that the cautious consumer and trade-downs could compress margins year-over-year in Q2. He added that while raw material costs have eased from Q1, they are still inflated versus Q2 of last year, causing a lag in formula pricing catch-up.

Questioned why the Hog Production outlook wasn't raised given a strong Q1 and positive Q2/Q3 commentary. Also asked about the expected profitability trend for Packaged Meats in Q2, both sequentially and year-over-year.

Answer

The Hog Production outlook remains unchanged due to caution around potential tariff-related revenue volatility and expected seasonal losses in Q4. For Packaged Meats in Q2, year-over-year margin compression is possible due to the cautious consumer and still-elevated raw material costs compared to the prior year, as formula pricing takes time to catch up.

Thomas Palmer sought clarification on the Q1 outlook for Hog Production, asking if management's comments implied counter-seasonal strength. He also inquired about the broader U.S. hog supply and whether current profitability levels are sufficient to incentivize industry-wide production increases.

Answer

President and CEO Shane Smith confirmed that while Q1 is typically a weak season for Hog Production, Q1 2025 is expected to perform significantly better than the prior year. Regarding supply, both Smith and President of Fresh Pork Donovan Owens stated that the industry is currently in balance and they do not anticipate a rush to expansion, as producers remain cautious after the severe losses of 2023.

Thomas Palmer asked about potential tailwinds for Q4 that support the reiterated annual outlook and requested more detail on major imported items that could be affected by tariffs.

Answer

CFO Dave Marberger outlined Q4 building blocks, including strong consumption, improved shipment volumes, better gross margins versus Q3, and favorable SG&A. CEO Sean Connolly addressed the tariff question by noting the situation is highly volatile but mentioned items like tinplate steel and vegetables from Mexico as examples of materials sourced internationally due to limited domestic supply.

Thomas Palmer sought clarification on the SG&A outlook for Q2 following the Q1 pull-forward and asked about performance in Canada amid reports of weakness for U.S. brands.

Answer

EVP and CFO Marcos Gabriel advised looking at Q1 and Q2 SG&A on a combined basis for a more normalized view, as the Q1 expense shift will create a tailwind in Q2. Chairman, President and CEO Brendan Foley addressed the Canada question, stating that McCormick had a 'really robust quarter' there and is not currently experiencing the difficulties that have been reported in the press for other U.S. brands.

Thomas Palmer inquired about the expected quarterly cadence of earnings in 2025 relative to the annual guidance. He also asked for clarification on the underlying performance of the joint venture business, excluding currency impacts.

Answer

CFO Marcos Gabriel projected consistent top-line momentum throughout 2025 but noted that Q1 operating profit would be flat to slightly down due to lapping pricing investments and a shift in stock compensation timing. This will be offset by stronger growth in Q2. He also confirmed the underlying McCormick de Mexico JV business remains robust and is growing, with the reported decline being entirely due to unfavorable foreign exchange translation.

Thomas Palmer asked if the planned Q4 SG&A increase would be concentrated in a particular segment. He also questioned the guidance for unconsolidated operations, noting its conservatism given strong year-to-date growth despite a tough Q4 comparison.

Answer

President and CEO Brendan Foley clarified that the SG&A step-up would be across both the Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments. Regarding unconsolidated operations, EVP and CFO Mike Smith explained that a key factor for the Q4 outlook is the significant headwind from foreign exchange rates, specifically the Mexican peso, which impacts the translation of earnings from their large joint venture, McCormick de Mexico.

Thomas Palmer asked for more detail on the expected cadence of earnings and COGS inflation throughout 2025. He also inquired about the specific price elasticity assumptions embedded in the company's guidance.

Answer

CFO Luca Zaramella explained that the high cocoa cost pressure seen in Q4 2024 is expected to persist through 2025. However, profitability should improve sequentially throughout the year as pricing actions are implemented, with benefits becoming more apparent from Q2 onwards. He stated that the guidance embeds an average elasticity of 0.4x to 0.5x, which is higher than the levels observed in 2024.

Thomas Palmer asked about the implied acceleration in organic sales growth for the fourth quarter, seeking to understand which regions would drive the improvement and whether it would be led by volume or pricing.

Answer

CFO Luca Zaramella confirmed that Q4 growth is expected to be slightly higher than Q3. He stated that pricing is done for the year, so no sequential increase is expected. He anticipates strong performance in North America and EMEA, the latter of which will begin lapping the boycotts from the prior year. He also expects strong results in Europe and a slight improvement in Latin America.

Thomas Palmer from Citigroup Inc. inquired about the gross margin outlook for the upcoming quarters and sought details on discussions with a club channel customer to offset Atkins' distribution losses.

Answer

CFO Shaun Mara confirmed the full-year gross margin guidance of a ~200 basis point decline, noting Q1's outperformance would offset future inflation. He projected a Q2 gross margin decline of approximately 300 basis points. CEO Geoff Tanner added that discussions with the club customer about repurposing space for Quest and OWYN are productive, with more details anticipated by April.

Thomas Palmer of Citigroup questioned the raised operating profit guidance, asking why the increase was attributed mainly to first-half upside with second-half expectations unchanged, and what specific pressures might limit further upside. He also asked about the full-year inflation outlook.

Answer

Vice Chairman and CFO Amit Banati explained that the year-over-year gross margin progression will naturally moderate in the second half as the company laps several items, including the TSA pass-through, the resolution of supply bottlenecks, and the largest currency devaluation in Nigeria. He also noted that brand-building investment growth will moderate against a higher base from H2 last year. On inflation, he reiterated the outlook of neutral to slightly inflationary, with costs tracking in line with expectations.

Thomas Palmer of Citigroup asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind North America's strong profit improvement, excluding the TSA impact, and inquired about the cost environment's progression. He also asked if the full-year guidance for all operating segments remains in line with their long-term algorithms.

Answer

Vice Chairman and CFO Amit Banati attributed the strong North America profit to prior revenue growth actions, a moderating cost environment, and lapping prior-year supply chain bottlenecks. He noted the pace of profit growth would likely moderate but remain strong. Banati also confirmed that segment performance expectations for the year are broadly in line with the previously communicated long-term algorithms.

Asked for an update on the operating profit distribution by segment compared to the Investor Day guidance and inquired about the rationale and timing of the newly announced network optimization projects.

Answer

The company does not plan to provide ongoing regional guidance, but all regions are expected to perform within their long-term growth algorithms in 2024. The network optimization projects are being initiated now due to increased organizational bandwidth post-pandemic and supply chain crises, aiming to improve efficiency in the frozen and UK cereal businesses.