Thomas Scholl

Thomas Scholl asked for quantification of PHINIA's tariff exposure, both on a USMCA-compliant and non-compliant basis, and inquired about shifts in the underlying production market, particularly the softening commercial vehicle (CV) OE market.

Answer

CEO Brady Ericson explained that the bulk of PHINIA's North American business is USMCA-compliant and that over half of its Mexico production serves customers within Mexico, mitigating tariff impacts. He confirmed the analyst's calculation of the current tariff headwind was accurate and noted that the softening CV market was already factored into the reaffirmed guidance. CFO Chris Gropp added that the light vehicle market in China has strengthened and European business has remained strong, providing offsets.

Thomas Scholl from BNP Paribas Asset Management asked for an explanation of why PHINIA's tax rate is projected to remain high in 2025 and requested color on the company's performance expectations by business segment.

Answer

CFO Chris Gropp explained that the high tax rate is due to a complex legacy legal structure inherited from the spin-off, which will take a long time to unwind. CEO Brady Ericson projected continued revenue pressure in the Fuel Systems segment, driven by softness in light vehicles, which he expects to be offset by ongoing growth in the Aftermarket segment. He anticipates a potential CV-led recovery in the second half of the year.

Thomas Scholl inquired about PHINIA's end-market outlook for the fourth quarter, including expected sales and earnings by segment. He also asked if the second-half 2024 EBITDA performance should be considered a run-rate for 2025.

Answer

CEO Brady Ericson explained that market softness, particularly in Commercial Vehicles (CV), is expected to persist through Q4 and into the first half of 2025, with a potential recovery in the second half. He anticipates Aftermarket operating income margins to be around 15% and Fuel Systems margins to remain north of 10%. CFO Chris Gropp confirmed the CV market weakness. Ericson added that 2025 might see a softer first half and a stronger second half, driven by a CV recovery and new product launches.

Thomas Scholl, on for James Picariello, asked about potential top-line revenue synergies from the Dowlais transaction and questioned the 2025 free cash flow bridge, specifically how FCF remains stable despite lower EBITDA and higher CapEx, and whether this was sustainable.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Dauch stated that revenue synergies will arise from global cross-selling opportunities with the expanded, complementary product portfolio. EVP and CFO Chris May explained the free cash flow stability is driven by lower interest expenses and significant working capital opportunities in inventory, payables, and receivables, which he views as sustainable structural improvements rather than a one-time benefit.