Tim Anderson

Tim Anderson from Bank of America questioned the potential market impact of Canadian generic semaglutide launching in 2026, suggesting it could act as a replacement for the compounding channel and create a headwind for tirzepatide.

Answer

Ilya Yuffa, President of Lilly USA, responded by focusing on the current strength of Zepbound in the U.S. self-pay market. He highlighted that the vial presentation is meeting a significant patient need, generating over 1 million prescriptions in Q2, and that Zepbound's superior profile continues to drive strong growth and market share gains despite existing competitive noise.

Tim Anderson asked about the timing of trough earnings, specifically whether it is trending towards being pulled forward, pushed back, or remaining consistent with forecasts from a year ago, given recent industry and company developments. He also asked if investors had overreacted to comments made in the Q2 earnings call regarding the ADEPT program.

Answer

CEO Chris Boerner congratulated Tim Anderson on his next move and reiterated that the company has not provided long-term guidance on trough specifics, but remains focused on making the trough as shallow and short as possible, aiming for growth exiting the decade. He emphasized strong commercial performance, a robust late-stage pipeline, and maintaining financial flexibility. Regarding ADEPT, he stated that there is significant focus on execution across all stages of the strategy and advised against reading too much into prior comments, emphasizing overall confidence in the program.

Tim Anderson asked about the timing of Bristol Myers Squibb's trough earnings, specifically whether it is trending to be pulled forward, pushed back, or remaining consistent with previous forecasts, considering recent company and industry developments. He also inquired if investors were overreacting to comments made in Q2 regarding the Cabenfi ADEPT program.

Answer

Chris Boerner, Board Chair and CEO, reiterated that Bristol Myers Squibb does not provide long-term guidance but remains focused on making the trough as shallow and short as possible, anticipating exiting the decade with growth. He emphasized maximizing the exit trough trajectory through commercial performance, a strong late-stage pipeline, and maintaining financial flexibility for business development. Regarding ADEPT program nervousness, he stated that the company is highly focused on execution across all strategic stages and that investors should not read too much into previous comments beyond this focus.

Tim Anderson from Bank of America inquired about the ongoing IRA price negotiations for Ibrance and Xtandi, asking how the discussions are aligning with initial expectations.

Answer

CEO Albert Bourla explained that while he cannot legally disclose details of the negotiations, the impact on Pfizer is minimal. He noted that both Ibrance and Xtandi are losing their patents in 2027, meaning the negotiated price would only apply for a very short period of exclusivity, resulting in a very small Net Present Value (NPV) impact.

Tim Anderson of Bank of America requested color on the ongoing IRA price negotiations for Ibrance and Xtandi, which are set for 2027 implementation, and whether the administration might push for larger discounts.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Albert Bourla explained that he is legally prohibited from disclosing details of the negotiations. However, he emphasized that because both products face loss of exclusivity in 2027, the net present value (NPV) impact of the negotiated prices is very small for Pfizer.

Tim Anderson of Bank of America inquired about a recent MFN policy letter, asking why Regeneron's CEO was addressed by his first name and questioning the potential impact of a CMMI demo project on EYLEA.

Answer

President & CEO Dr. Leonard Schleifer stated he has no unique insight due to the informal address, attributing it to the President's familiarity with Regeneron's COVID-19 cocktail. He reiterated the company's view that Europe should pay its fair share for innovation but emphasized the complexity of achieving this through trade policy.

Tim Anderson of Bank of America inquired about the potential implications of a Most Favored Nation (MFN) drug pricing policy, asking why Regeneron's CEO was addressed by first name in a letter from Donald Trump and whether EYLEA could be impacted.

Answer

President & CEO Dr. Leonard Schleifer stated he has no unique insight into the MFN policy despite the informal address, which he attributed to Regeneron's role in providing a COVID-19 treatment. He affirmed agreement that European countries should pay more for innovation but noted the solution is complex and must be handled at a trade policy level.

Tim Anderson from Bank of America asked about the upcoming IRA price negotiations for Vraylar and for an update on the net impact of GLP-1 drugs on AbbVie's aesthetics business, like Botox and fillers.

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CEO Robert Michael declined to comment on active IRA negotiations but highlighted a positive policy change exempting VENCLEXTA. EVP & CCO Jeffrey Stewart assessed the impact of GLP-1s on aesthetics as 'net neutral,' stating that any potential tailwind for fillers is offset by macroeconomic pressures and consumer sentiment.

Tim Anderson of Bank of America asked for the key offsets that support management's view of the KEYTRUDA LOE as a 'hill, not a cliff,' and for a general timeframe for when the company expects to return to consistent growth.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Robert Davis detailed the over $50 billion opportunity from the pipeline, citing over $25 billion from oncology, $15 billion from cardiometabolic, and significant contributions from HIV, immunology, Animal Health, and future business development. He stated the goal is to minimize the downturn and return to growth quickly, referencing a profile shown at a prior J.P. Morgan conference.

Tim Anderson of Bank of America pressed for details on the long-term outlook, asking for the biggest offsets that support the 'hill versus a cliff' description for the KEYTRUDA LOE and for a potential timeframe for when the company could return to consistent growth.

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Chairman & CEO Robert Davis reiterated his confidence, citing over $50 billion in potential revenue from key therapeutic areas: oncology ($25B+), cardiometabolic ($15B), HIV ($5B), immunology ($5B), and a fast-growing Animal Health business. He mentioned recent proof points like Winrevir and upcoming assets like enlicitide. While not giving a specific year, he expressed confidence in minimizing the dip and returning to growth quickly.

Susan, on behalf of Tim Anderson from Bank of America, asked about the target profile for Amylyx's long-acting GLP-1 antagonist and how it compares to GLP-1 agonists from competitors. She also questioned the company's forecast for future PBH patient numbers, suggesting the market might shrink due to the increased use of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss, potentially reducing bariatric surgeries.

Answer

Co-CEO Justin Klee clarified that their drug is a GLP-1 antagonist, fundamentally different from the competitor agonists mentioned, and is designed to treat hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia. Regarding the market size, Co-CEO Joshua Cohen asserted that the PBH market will grow, not shrink. He explained that the condition is chronic in the large existing patient pool and that bariatric surgery remains in high demand for individuals requiring significant weight loss, a different use case than typical GLP-1 therapy.

Tim Anderson questioned the 2025 operating expense guidance, specifically asking how much the Royalty Pharma deal reduces R&D spending and if more such off-balance sheet transactions are anticipated.

Answer

CFO Michael McDonnell confirmed that the $200 million expected from Royalty Pharma in 2025 will be accounted for as a direct reduction to R&D expense. He characterized the deal as a 'one-off transaction' for now, noting that such structures are not easily applicable to all products.