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    Tim Savageaux

    Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Northland Capital Markets

    Tim Savageaux is a Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Northland Capital Markets, specializing in broadband communications infrastructure, networking systems, and enabling technologies for sectors such as AI data centers, optical networking, fiber, cable, and wireless broadband. He actively covers companies like Clearfield, LUNA Innovations, Cambium Networks, Ciena, and Fabrinet, and maintains an average price target met ratio of approximately 60%, with a documented potential price target upside of over 32% and strong track records, including high-performing recommendations like a 10.24% single-day gain on LUNA Innovations. Beginning his career at JP Morgan, Savageaux advanced through senior roles at Robertson Stephens, Volpe Brown Whelan, WR Hambrecht, and Merriman Curhan Ford (where he was Director of Research), and founded Terrapin Research and Management before joining Northland in 2015. He holds FINRA Series 7, 24, 63, and 86/87 licenses, underscoring his professional credentials and compliance with industry standards.

    Tim Savageaux's questions to Fabrinet (FN) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to Fabrinet (FN) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux questioned if management still expects accelerating growth in fiscal 2026, sought details on the accelerated expansion of Building 10, and asked if the new telecom systems win contributed materially in Q4.

    Answer

    CEO Seamus Grady reiterated strong optimism for FY26 growth, driven by Datacom, DCI, and new programs, but did not provide full-year guidance. He confirmed they are evaluating accelerating a portion of Building 10's completion to meet demand, which would increase near-term CapEx. He also noted the new telecom system win began contributing in Q4, but the main ramp is expected throughout FY26.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to Ouster (OUST) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to Ouster (OUST) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux from Northland Capital Markets asked about the total addressable market (TAM) for the emerging defense and drone opportunity and questioned which specific verticals were driving the company's sequential growth guidance for Q3.

    Answer

    CEO Angus Pacala explained that the defense market TAM is currently included within the broader robotics vertical and is not broken out separately due to its rapidly evolving nature. For the Q3 outlook, Pacala attributed the expected growth to Ouster's overall diversification and the continued strength and momentum within the industrial vertical, which has been a consistent growth driver for the company.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets inquired about the drivers for the apparent strength in the cable networking business and asked for clarification on whether the new LPO customer engagements are with new or existing MACOM customers.

    Answer

    President and CEO Stephen Daly confirmed that MACOM's cable infrastructure business, while a small part of the Telecom segment, is growing and moving in the right direction. On the LPO engagements, he stated they are with customers MACOM has previously supported with other products for their traditional pluggable optical modules, indicating they are existing relationships.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to Clearfield (CLFD) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to Clearfield (CLFD) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets questioned the performance of smaller carrier markets, asking if the seasonal build was weaker than normal. He also asked about the reasonableness of a low-double-digit growth outlook for fiscal 2026 and the key end-market dynamics behind the flat Q4 guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Cheri Beranek explained that smaller carriers have delayed projects due to uncertainty surrounding the BEAD program, shifting revenue rather than losing it. She affirmed that a growth rate around industry norms is a comfortable outlook for the core Clearfield segment, while the Nestor segment will focus on improving profitability. For Q4, she anticipates continued strong demand from the Clearfield segment will be offset by ongoing weakness in the European Nestor segment.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to Clearfield (CLFD) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Inquired about the weaker-than-usual seasonality in the small carrier market, the reasonableness of using industry growth rates for fiscal 2026 forecasting, and any notable end-market shifts underlying the flat Q4 guidance.

    Answer

    Cheri Beranek attributed the weakness in small carriers to project delays caused by uncertainty around BEAD funding. She agreed that industry growth rates are a reasonable baseline for FY26, while reiterating the goal to outpace the market and highlighting the need to view the Clearfield and Nester segments separately. For Q4, she expects continued strength in the Clearfield segment offset by weakness in the Nester segment, with a revenue mix similar to Q3.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux from Northland Capital Markets asked for details on the expected drivers of Q3 sequential growth, whether momentum implies Q4 growth, and the factors behind the strong US performance in Q2.

    Answer

    CEO & Chairman Tom Stanton indicated that all product segments are trending positively, with Subscriber Solutions and Optical expected to be particularly strong in Q3. Regarding Q4, Stanton stated that while the company doesn't give guidance that far out, he "would not be surprised" if current momentum overcame seasonal patterns. He attributed the Q2 US growth to a mix of inventory normalization and new business wins.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets asked if ADTRAN is reaching an inflection point in cross-selling synergies and inquired about the potential scale and ramp-up timeline for the new Southern European customer win.

    Answer

    CEO Thomas Stanton affirmed that cross-selling momentum is significantly increasing, citing the new European win and expanded business with two U.S. Tier 2s as proof. He suggested this is partly due to customers completing inventory destocking. For the new European carrier, he indicated they are 'in a hurry' and the opportunity could reach 'tens of millions a quarter' once fully ramped.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to CommScope Holding Company (COMM) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to CommScope Holding Company (COMM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets requested a deeper analysis of the A&S segment, focusing on the revenue mix between next-generation DOCSIS 4.0 and legacy products, and the potential long-term growth rate for RemainCo.

    Answer

    CFO Kyle Lorentzen clarified that the majority of A&S revenue is now from next-gen products, with legacy technology accounting for less than 50%. He declined to provide a specific growth guide for 2026, citing the cyclical, project-driven nature of the A&S business. CEO Charles Treadway emphasized that the 2025 EBITDA guidance for RemainCo represents a significant improvement over 2024.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to CommScope Holding Company (COMM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux from Northland Capital Markets sought details on the A&S segment's revenue mix between next-generation DOCSIS 4.0 and legacy products, and asked if RemainCo could achieve double-digit growth.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Kyle Lorentzen stated that next-gen products now constitute the majority of A&S revenue. He declined to provide a specific 2026 growth guide, citing the cyclical, project-based nature of the A&S business. President & CEO Charles Treadway added that the 2025 EBITDA guidance for RemainCo represents a significant year-over-year improvement.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to AXT (AXTI) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to AXT (AXTI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets asked for more details on the indium phosphide market growing too fast for just two players, how the backlog has trended amid export issues, and the specific breakdown of the $10 million backlog between indium phosphide and gallium arsenide.

    Answer

    Tim Bettles, VP of Business Development, elaborated that the move to higher-speed transceivers for AI not only requires higher quality material, where AXT has an advantage, but also increases the acreage of indium phosphide used per device. He confirmed that new orders are still being received daily. Mr. Bettles stated that over 50% of the $10 million backlog is for indium phosphide and that the company has the capacity to ship this backlog quickly once permits are approved, suggesting a potential upside to Q3 guidance.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to AXT (AXTI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets sought more detail on the indium phosphide market growing too fast to be serviced by only two players, the potential for accelerated growth, and the composition of the $10 million backlog between indium phosphide and gallium arsenide.

    Answer

    Tim Bettles, VP of Business Development, explained that the move to higher-speed transceivers for AI creates a dual benefit: it requires higher-quality, low-EPD material and larger device sizes, both of which favor AXT. He noted that with AXT holding about 40% market share, it's difficult for competitors to fill the gap quickly. He also confirmed that over 50% of the $10 million backlog is for indium phosphide and that AXT has the capacity to ship it rapidly once permits are approved.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to HARMONIC (HLIT) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to HARMONIC (HLIT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux from Northland Capital Markets questioned the baseline for the "above trend growth" expected in 2026, asking about Q4 seasonality. He also probed whether 2026 revenue could reach a new high watermark and sought to assess the inventory situation at Charter.

    Answer

    CFO Walter Jankovic indicated an expectation for sequential growth from Q3 to Q4 but refrained from specific guidance due to uncertainties. He stated it was too early to provide a 2026 revenue target but reiterated confidence based on positive tailwinds. He declined to comment on any specific customer's inventory or ramp schedule, speaking only in general terms about the deployment process.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to Ribbon Communications (RBBN) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to Ribbon Communications (RBBN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets requested specifics on the record quarter with Verizon, including its revenue contribution, and asked about the dynamics of Verizon's revenue in Q3 and Q4. He also inquired about the strategy of bundling routing solutions with voice deals.

    Answer

    President, CEO & Director Bruce McClelland confirmed Verizon was over 20% of total sales in Q2, a new record. He explained that while Verizon's equipment shipments would be lower in Q3, strong enterprise growth would lead to a consistent overall quarter. McClelland highlighted the "land and expand" strategy of bundling IP routers for traffic aggregation in voice modernization deals, which serves as a key differentiator and entry point into major service provider networks.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to CALIX (CALX) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to CALIX (CALX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux asked about the dynamics driving strong revenue from large and medium carriers, referencing specific customers like Verizon and CityFibre, and how that might affect the second-half outlook. He also requested more color on a newly won large cloud customer.

    Answer

    CFO Cory Sindelar stated that demand is broad-based and the outlook is not reliant on any specific customer, noting large customer revenue is inherently lumpy. CEO Michael Weening attributed demand to providers choosing Calix as a long-term partner for the AI transition. He confirmed the new win was a 'net new, very large' cloud-only customer, which he views as a positive indicator for the future.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to CIENA (CIEN) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to CIENA (CIEN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets observed that Ciena's cloud business appeared more diversified among providers in the quarter and asked management to comment on this trend.

    Answer

    President and CEO Gary Smith confirmed the trend, stating that Ciena is seeing a "step function" increase in demand from all four major hyperscalers. He also highlighted that the customer base is broadening to a larger group of cloud players who now recognize the network is critical to monetizing their massive GPU investments, making the demand more diversified and durable.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to DZSI leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to DZSI leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Inquired about the second-half guidance, specifically the expected growth from the organic DZS business and the possibility of achieving breakeven by year-end. Also asked for an update on the opportunity pipeline related to the U.S. rural fiber market and the BEAD program.

    Answer

    CEO Charles Vogt confirmed the analyst's breakeven assessment was reasonable but stated the company is providing only a 'soft guide' for H2 2024. He highlighted synergies from the NetComm acquisition as a key factor. Regarding the BEAD program, Vogt noted progress in state-level fund allocation and confirmed DZS has certified its products with the NTIA, expecting meaningful revenue from the program in H2 2025.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to Cambium Networks (CMBM) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to Cambium Networks (CMBM) leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    Questioned the 2024 CapEx guidance, which he initially thought was doubling, and asked for growth expectations for the Point-to-Point (PTP) and Point-to-Multi-Point (PMP) segments.

    Answer

    The CFO clarified that the 2024 CapEx outlook of $9 million to $11 million is actually slightly lower than 2023, not doubling. For 2024, the Point-to-Point business is expected to see flat to modest growth, while the Point-to-Multi-Point business is expected to grow in the mid to upper teens.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to EMKR leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to EMKR leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    Asked for confirmation that the annual revenue guidance accounts for the TAIMU contract cancellation and inquired about the timeline to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA and positive cash flow.

    Answer

    The company confirmed the annual guidance includes offsets for the TAIMU cancellation. They expect to be close to or achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in the December quarter, or the following one. Positive cash flow is anticipated one to two quarters after reaching EBITDA breakeven, contingent on revenue growth.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to UTSTARCOM HOLDINGS (UTSI) leadership

    Tim Savageaux's questions to UTSTARCOM HOLDINGS (UTSI) leadership • Q1 2019

    Question

    Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital inquired about the 5G optical transport opportunity in China, asking about the partner involved, the potential timing and size of the opportunity, and the overall demand environment. He also questioned whether the weaker Q2 guidance was driven by volatility in India or Japan.

    Answer

    CEO Tim Ti confirmed a partnership for a 5G backhaul project with a major China carrier but could not disclose the partner's name. VP of Finance Eric Lam added that it was too early to predict the timing or size of the opportunity as it is still in the testing phase. Regarding the Q2 outlook, Lam explained that Japan's revenue is facing uncertainty due to its 5G transition, while India is expected to be a more dominant contributor in the short term, following a Q1 with a relatively even mix between the two regions.

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    Tim Savageaux's questions to UTSTARCOM HOLDINGS (UTSI) leadership • Q4 2018

    Question

    Tim Savageaux from Northland Capital inquired about the 2019 growth outlook, questioning if the company could sustain its growth given drivers like 5G and India versus potential lumpiness. He also asked about the timing of Japan's 100-gig upgrade and the potential for revenue from China.

    Answer

    VP of Finance Eric Lam acknowledged uncertainty for 2019 revenue, noting that while India's contribution would be strong, significant 5G-related revenue might not materialize until late in the year, causing potential "hiccups." CEO Tim Ti added that Japan's 5G migration is slowed by new vendor selections and that India's revenue is tender-based, leading to quarterly fluctuations. Regarding China, he expects some 2019 revenue from the Tongding partnership and the uSTAR goBox product.

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