Tim Switzer

Tim Switzer asked about trends in Northwest Bancshares' consumer loan portfolio, particularly regarding delinquencies, and broader consumer health indicated by deposit account activity. He also inquired about the bank's strategy for scaling up, including target size, optimal efficiency, and preferred methods like organic growth, de novo branches, or M&A.

Answer

Douglas Schosser (CFO, Northwest Bancshares Inc) explained that elevated consumer delinquencies were largely administrative due to the Penns Woods merger conversion, not a negative trend, and highlighted the high credit quality of the auto loan book. Louis Torchio (President and CEO, Northwest Bancshares Inc) stated the focus is on maximizing Penns Woods integration and efficiency, emphasizing a dual strategy of organic growth, including de novo branching in high-growth markets, complemented by opportunistic M&A that adds strategic or geographic value.

Tim Switzer inquired about Northwest Bancshares Inc.'s consumer portfolio trends, including delinquency rates and the impact of the Penns Woods merger conversion on administrative delinquencies. He also asked about broader consumer health indicators from deposit account activity and behavior. Additionally, Switzer sought insight into the bank's strategy for scaling up, including potential target sizes for optimal efficiency and returns, and the preferred methods of growth such as organic expansion, de novo branches, or M&A.

Answer

Doug Schosser, CFO, explained that elevated consumer delinquencies were primarily administrative due to the Penns Woods conversion, with no negative trend in the overall consumer book, and highlighted the high credit quality of the auto loan portfolio. Louis Torchio, President and CEO, emphasized maximizing the Penns Woods integration and efficiency, focusing on improving core organic bank financial returns through de novo branching in high-growth markets like Columbus and Indianapolis. He also noted a dual strategy of organic growth and opportunistic M&A that strategically or geographically adds value to the franchise and shareholders.

Tim Switzer from KBW asked whether the loan pricing competition is primarily driven by slowing borrower demand or lower rates from the Federal Reserve, beyond market disruption.

Answer

Ian Whinnem (SVP and CFO, Civista Bancshares Inc) stated that demand has been consistent in Ohio, attributing competition more to lower rates from the Fed and increased confidence in commercial real estate among competitors. Dennis Shaffer (President and CEO, Civista Bancshares Inc) added that customers have adapted to economic conditions, and lower Fed rates should spur activity.

Tim Switzer of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) requested guidance on future leasing fee income, excluding the one-time adjustment, and asked about the bank's analysis of its loan book's exposure to potential tariffs.

Answer

EVP & Chief Lending Officer Charles Parcher and CFO Ian Whinnem explained that leasing activity was slower in H1 due to a core system conversion and customer hesitation on CapEx. They anticipate a rebound in H2, partly due to accelerated depreciation benefits. Regarding tariffs, Parcher noted that while manufacturers are optimistic about potential reshoring, they are currently delaying major CapEx decisions pending clarity.

Tim Switzer asked about the near-term trajectory for net interest margin (NIM) given the re-entry into a rate cut cycle and the timeline for its rebound. He also questioned the competitive landscape in the SBA space, including the impact of government shutdowns and rule changes, and whether any specific industries are showing more credit stress.

Answer

Walter Phifer, CFO, explained that as an asset-sensitive bank, margin variation is expected with rate cuts, but the short-term funding base allows for quick recovery, emphasizing net interest income growth over margin alone. William Losch III, President and COO, stated that Live Oak's deep expertise in the SBA market allows them to consistently grow despite market changes and competition. He also noted that credit stress is more related to rising rates in 2021-2022 vintages and industries with limited pricing power, rather than broad-based tariff impacts.

Tim Switzer asked about the near-term trajectory of the net interest margin (NIM) in a rate cut cycle, seeking a timeline for its rebound. He also inquired about the competitive landscape in the SBA space, specifically if government shutdowns, credit cycles, or rule changes have eased competition or created opportunities. Lastly, he asked if any specific industries are struggling more than others due to rising rates or tariffs.

Answer

CFO Walter Phifer explained that as an asset-sensitive bank, margin variation is expected with rate cuts, but the short-term nature of funding allows for quick recovery, typically within a year. He emphasized focusing on net interest income growth over just margin. President and COO William Losch III stated that Live Oak's deep expertise in SBA lending allows them to focus on internal improvements, growing verticals, and serving customers, rather than external competitive shifts. He clarified that tariffs had minimal impact, with stress primarily from rising rates in 2021-2022 vintages affecting a handful of industries with limited pricing power.

Tim Switzer from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the recent pickup in USDA loan sales and the outlook for that market. He also questioned what is driving the strong demand and healthy gain-on-sale margins for SBA loans, and whether recent rule changes and credit issues have caused competitors to pull back, creating opportunities for Live Oak.

Answer

CFO Walt Phifer attributed the renewed USDA market activity to investor demand for downward rate protection in the current rate environment, though he noted the market remains choppy. He stated that SBA loan demand remains consistently strong due to attractive spreads and prepayment characteristics. President William C. Losch III confirmed that competitors have pulled back, particularly on smaller dollar loans following SOP changes, which has driven more activity to Live Oak due to its consistent execution and market presence.

Tim Switzer inquired about the drivers behind the accelerated deposit growth in OceanFirst Financial Corp.'s premier banking segment, its trajectory towards the $2-$3 billion target by 2027, and expectations for loan originations and the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) within this segment. He also sought clarification on the $10 million pre-tax benefit from residential mortgage restructuring, the implied revenue headwind, and other factors affecting the non-interest income guide.

Answer

Joseph Lebel III, President, explained that premier banking deposit growth is driven by new teams and customer acclimation, with initial excess cash followed by operational balances. He expects continued maturation to achieve the 2027 targets and expressed satisfaction with premier bankers' loan activity, though it's too early to forecast an exact LDR. Christopher Maher, Chairman and CEO, confirmed the $4 million residential revenue headwind and detailed the Q3-Q4 transition period for residential outsourcing. Patrick Barrett, CFO, added that the reduction in the title company's operations, previously contributing about $10 million annually in both expenses and revenues, also contributes to the non-interest income headwind while providing an expense benefit.

Tim Switzer asked about the acceleration of deposit growth within the premier banking segment, its trajectory towards 2027 targets, and the volume of loan originations from this segment. He also sought clarification on the financial impact of restructuring the residential mortgage business, including revenue headwinds and expense savings.

Answer

Joseph Lebel III, President, attributed premier banking deposit growth to new teams and customer acclimation, expecting a gradual shift to lower-cost transactional balances. He expressed satisfaction with premier banking loan originations. Christopher Maher, Chairman and CEO, and Patrick Barrett, CFO, detailed the residential mortgage restructuring, confirming a $10 million pre-tax benefit from $14 million in expense savings offset by a $4 million revenue headwind, with additional impacts from the title company divestiture.

Tim Switzer asked for clarification on the baseline for non-interest income guidance, the expense impact from recent strategic hires, and the company's current stance on M&A versus other capital deployment options.

Answer

CFO Patrick Barrett confirmed the GAAP number is the appropriate base for non-interest income guidance. Chairman & CEO Christopher Maher quantified the EPS impact from new hire expenses at approximately $0.06 for Q2. Barrett noted that while compensation will rise, a drop in recruiting fees should keep net operating expenses flat. Maher stated that organic growth is the primary focus, and M&A is not a priority given current share valuation.

Tim Switzer asked for an explanation regarding the increase in diluted shares, observing that the end-of-period share count did not rise proportionally.

Answer

CFO Drew LaBenne explained that the primary factor was the share price, as a higher share price results in greater dilution on outstanding equity grants when applying the treasury stock method for calculating diluted shares. He confirmed there was no fundamental step change in the vehicles contributing to the diluted share count.

Tim Switzer asked about the funding cost benefits from new deposit products, the sustainability of the 100% deposit beta, and the potential impact of Fed rate cuts on NIM.

Answer

CEO Scott Sanborn clarified that the new LevelUp checking product is strategically focused on borrower engagement and lifetime value rather than near-term funding cost reduction. CFO Drew LaBenne added that while deposit costs should move down with the Fed, the beta may be less than 100% on future cuts to ensure continued deposit growth. Scott Sanborn also noted that rate cuts could benefit loan sale prices.

Tim Switzer inquired about the net interest margin (NIM) trajectory given anticipated Fed rate cuts, seeking a rule of thumb for the impact of 25 basis point cuts. He also asked about the competitive landscape for both loan and deposit pricing, identifying the types of competitors and specific geographies or categories where competition is most intense. Furthermore, Switzer probed whether loan competition is driven by competitors re-entering markets or by more tepid loan demand.

Answer

Tom Quinn, President and CEO, indicated that two 25 basis point cuts wouldn't substantially impact the NIM, with competitive pricing being a larger factor. He expressed hope to maintain the NIM around the current level, potentially 5 basis points lower, with purchase accounting accretion impacting the range of 4.0% to 4.15%. Quinn clarified that while a static model shows NIM contraction with rate cuts, proactive steps can offset this. Bob Coradi, Chief Risk Officer, noted that competition varies by growth markets like Baltimore, Lancaster, and Harrisburg, and is a mix of factors, but Orrstown's relationship model helps secure desired pricing.

Tim Switzer from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the potential impact of Fed rate cuts on the Net Interest Margin (NIM) outlook and for more details on growth initiatives within the wealth management business.

Answer

EVP & CFO Neelesh Kalani explained that as an asset-sensitive bank, rate cuts would negatively impact net interest income, though they would try to offset this by lowering deposit costs. President & CEO Thomas Quinn added that pricing their strong loan pipeline appropriately will be critical. Regarding wealth management, Quinn and Senior EVP & COO Adam Metz highlighted talent acquisition and expansion in key growth markets like Maryland, Lancaster, and Harrisburg as primary drivers for the $3 billion AUM business.

Tim Switzer inquired about the financial and operational specifics of the new Upstart partnership, including balance sheet treatment, revenue recognition, credit indemnification, and loan duration, as well as the drivers behind the quarter's secondary market revenue performance.

Answer

CEO Brett Pharr confirmed the Upstart program aligns with existing marketplace lending, featuring credit indemnifications and an off-balance-sheet approach. CFO Greg Sigrist clarified that these are held-for-sale loans with a hold period of 30 days or less, and the partnership is not exclusive. Sigrist also explained that the higher secondary market revenue was opportunistic, with future expectations returning to the $5M-$7M range, driven by renewable USDA opportunities.

Tim Switzer (KBW) inquired about the new Upstart partnership, specifically its operational structure, balance sheet impact, revenue recognition, credit loss indemnification, loan holding periods, and exclusivity. He also asked about the drivers behind the higher-than-expected secondary market revenue and future targets.

Answer

CEO Brett Pharr confirmed the Upstart program aligns with Pathward's existing marketplace lending model, featuring credit indemnifications and a temporary balance sheet presence. CFO Greg Sigrist added that these loans are held-for-sale with a hold period of 30 days or less, and the partnership is not exclusive. Sigrist explained that the elevated secondary market revenue was due to opportunistic sales, particularly in renewable energy with USDA, but the company anticipates returning to the $5 million to $7 million quarterly range.

Tim Switzer inquired about Pathward's services for crypto-related partners and any internal plans for crypto products, current credit trends in the commercial finance portfolio, the strength of the Banking as a Service (BaaS) partner pipeline, and the company's outlook on share repurchases.

Answer

CEO Brett Pharr confirmed Pathward provides USD access for crypto wallets and is evaluating further use cases, though it's still early. He reiterated that credit is strong, with recent NPL increases being episodic and well-collateralized. Mr. Pharr also described the partner pipeline as 'strong,' highlighting opportunities in consumer lending sponsorship and payments. EVP & CFO Greg Sigrist added that share repurchases will continue, though likely at a more 'muted' pace to build capital, as the stock price is still a 'green light' for buybacks.

Tim Switzer of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the drivers of the $50 million growth in commercial deposits, future deposit cost expectations, total charge-offs for the held-for-investment portfolio, and a breakdown of the net fair value line item, particularly the gain on Alternative Loan Program (ALP) loans.

Answer

President, Chairman & CEO Barry Sloane attributed deposit growth to integrated solutions like lending and payroll linked to zero-fee, high-rate business accounts, emphasizing the 'Newtek Advantage' platform. EVP & CFO Frank DeMaria stated that quarterly charge-offs were $5.1 million, flat sequentially. DeMaria and Sloane clarified the fair value line was impacted by a $35.1 million reversal of a prior unrealized gain on ALP loans, which was offset by a new $32.4 million gain on the retained securitization interest and other gains.

Tim Switzer of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the new partnership with Block's Cash App, the drivers behind lower deposit balances, credit quality in the 'Rebel' and SBL loan portfolios, the resolution timeline for the Aubrey property's earnest money dispute, and The Bancorp's capacity for future growth.

Answer

CEO Damian Kozlowski explained that the Block partnership is a significant expansion for card issuance, aiming to replace the current issuer over time. He stated that the Q2 deposit decline was a deliberate balance sheet management action. Regarding credit, Kozlowski noted that issues in the Rebel portfolio have likely peaked and are being managed, while the small increase in SBL non-performing assets was isolated. He expressed confidence in resolving the earnest money dispute in the next quarter and affirmed that the company's infrastructure is built to handle multiples of its current transaction volume.

Tim Switzer of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the company's target capital levels and appetite for share repurchases, the drivers behind the updated NIM guidance, and whether the slight decline in the loan pipeline signaled a potential slowdown.

Answer

CFO Thomas M. Lyons stated he is comfortable with a CET1 ratio around 11.25%. He noted the NIM guidance of 3.35% to 3.45% already incorporates two 25-basis-point rate cuts and is driven by significant asset repricing. President and CEO Anthony Labozzetta clarified that the loan pipeline remains robust and the quarterly decrease was a result of very strong loan closings, not a slowdown in demand, and he views the pipeline as a bright spot.

Tim Switzer asked for clarification on updated guidance for loan growth and expenses, the drivers behind the revised outlook, the strategy for capital deployment, the state of deposit competition, and the forward trajectory for Net Interest Margin (NIM).

Answer

CFO Brian Richardson provided updated guidance of 1-3% loan growth and 2-4% expense growth for 2025, attributing the loan growth moderation to significant prepayment activity despite strong originations. CEO Jeffrey Schweitzer stated that Univest will remain active with share buybacks and is open to non-bank M&A. Richardson also confirmed the deposit environment remains competitive and projected a slight pullback in Q3 core NIM due to sub-debt repricing and seasonal public funds, followed by stable to slightly up performance.

Tim Switzer of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) requested details on the current profitability of the small ticket leasing business, including its ROA and expense structure. He also asked about the bank's assessment of its portfolio's exposure to potential tariffs, specifically which industries and markets are being monitored most closely.

Answer

CFO Katie Bailey acknowledged that the leasing business's profitability has tightened considerably but is on a path to improvement. President & CEO Tyler Wilcox added that the unit's infrastructure is being restructured to align with its smaller portfolio size. Regarding tariffs, Wilcox confirmed a broad portfolio review was conducted, with a deep dive into the auto and manufacturing sectors. He stated that no material impacts on credit or loan growth have been observed to date.

Tim Switzer requested details on the overall profitability of the small ticket leasing business, including its current return on assets (ROA), and asked about the company's review of its loan portfolio for potential exposure to tariffs, including specific industries or markets of concern.

Answer

Kathryn Bailey, EVP & CFO, acknowledged that the leasing business's profitability has tightened significantly but is on a path to recovery. Tyler Wilcox, President, CEO & Director, added that its infrastructure is being restructured to align with its smaller portfolio size. Regarding tariffs, Wilcox described a comprehensive review of the commercial portfolio, with a deep dive into auto and manufacturing sectors. He noted a temporary spike and subsequent drop in indirect auto applications but stated no material credit impacts have been observed to date.

Tim Switzer of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) questioned the current profitability of the small ticket leasing business, asking for an update on its ROA compared to prior years. He also asked about the company's review of its loan portfolio for tariff exposure and which industries or markets were most at risk.

Answer

CFO Kathryn Bailey stated that the leasing business's profitability has 'tightened and reduced significantly' but is on a trajectory to improve. President & CEO Tyler Wilcox added that the business's infrastructure is being restructured to match its smaller size. Regarding tariffs, Wilcox confirmed a broad portfolio review was conducted, with deep dives into auto and manufacturing, but no material impacts have been observed on credit metrics or loan health to date.

Tim Switzer asked about the current profitability and return on assets (ROA) of the small ticket leasing business, given its historical performance. He also requested details on the bank's portfolio review for tariff exposure, specifically asking which industries and geographic markets are most exposed.

Answer

CFO Kathryn Bailey acknowledged that the leasing business's profitability has tightened significantly but is on a trajectory to improve. CEO Tyler Wilcox added that the business's infrastructure is being restructured to align with its smaller portfolio size. Regarding tariffs, Wilcox stated that a broad review, with a deep dive into auto and manufacturing, has not revealed any material impact on the portfolio's health, though they continue to monitor it closely.

Tim Switzer of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) questioned the current overall profitability of the small ticket leasing business, asking about its expenses and return on assets (ROA). He also asked about the company's review of its loan portfolio for tariff-related risks and which industries or markets are most exposed.

Answer

CFO Katie Bailey and CEO Tyler Wilcox acknowledged that the leasing business's profitability has significantly tightened but stated they are restructuring its infrastructure to align with its smaller portfolio size and restore its positive contribution. Regarding tariffs, Mr. Wilcox confirmed a broad portfolio review was conducted, with a deep dive into the auto and manufacturing sectors. He noted that while there was a temporary spike in indirect auto applications, no material impact on credit metrics or loan health has been observed to date.

Tim Switzer from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the near-term financial run rate for the GreenScreens acquisition, including revenue, expenses, and the timeline to break even. He also asked for clarification on credit trends, specifically normalized net charge-offs and the provision outlook.

Answer

W. Brad Voss, CFO, confirmed the quarterly run rate estimates of roughly $2.5M revenue and $4.5M expense. Aaron Graft, Founder, Vice Chairman & CEO, acknowledged the near-term earnings drag but projected the intelligence segment would grow fastest among transportation businesses. Regarding credit, Graft stated normalized net charge-offs were under $1 million, and Todd Ritterbusch, President of Payments & Banking, guided that annual credit loss expense would likely be at the low end of the historical $10-20 million range.

Tim Switzer of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods questioned the near-term financial run rate for the GreenScreens acquisition, including revenue, expenses, and the path to profitability. He also asked for details on normalized credit trends and the outlook for loan loss provisions.

Answer

CFO W. Brad Voss confirmed the Intelligence segment's near-term run rate of roughly $2.5M in quarterly revenue and $4.5M in expenses. CEO Aaron Graft added that he expects the segment to grow rapidly and reach profitability. Regarding credit, Graft stated normalized net charge-offs were under $1M for the quarter. President of Payments & Banking Todd Ritterbusch guided that full-year credit loss expense would likely be at the low end of the historical $10M-$20M range.

Inquired about credit performance within the SBA portfolio, asking if specific industries or borrower types are under pressure. Also asked about the potential impact of a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment and the drivers of growth in fintech deposits.

Answer

The executives stated there are no specific industry trends causing SBA pressure, aside from some lingering hurricane and pandemic-related build-out issues. They believe the current rate environment is manageable as loans were underwritten with stress tests, but a rate increase would be problematic. Fintech deposit growth is primarily from existing customers, and while the pipeline is good, new partner onboarding is slow and cautious due to heightened regulatory scrutiny.

Asked about the drivers for the 2025 SBA origination growth target, secondary market pricing expectations, and the net interest margin (NIM) trajectory into 2025 considering Fed rate cuts and balance sheet dynamics.

Answer

The SBA growth target for 2025 is around $600 million, supported by a strong team. The bank has the flexibility to hold loans if secondary market pricing is weak. The NIM is expected to expand significantly in 2025, driven by the repricing of high-cost CDs and deposits outweighing the impact on variable-rate loans, with potential for 10 bps of expansion per quarter. This could drive EPS from a target of $4 to $5.