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    Tim Thein

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James Financial

    Tim Thein is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James, specializing in the industrial goods sector with a focus on covering major companies including Deere & Company, Parker-Hannifin, Eaton, Federal Signal, and Allison Transmission. He has built a performance record with an average recommendation success rate of around 62% to 84.2% and an average return of 17.3%, with his insights consistently recognized on platforms like TipRanks and MarketBeat. Thein began his finance career in the early 2000s and joined Raymond James after prior industry roles, achieving the title of Managing Director through years of equity research expertise. He holds FINRA registration with Raymond James & Associates and maintains active securities licenses, underscoring his professional standing.

    Tim Thein's questions to DONALDSON Co (DCI) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to DONALDSON Co (DCI) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial asked about the Mobile aftermarket outlook, the scale of the new Mighty partnership, and the duration of the power gen super cycle. He also followed up on whether the company is seeing a change in the large project pipeline related to North American re-industrialization.

    Answer

    Chairman, CEO & President Tod Carpenter explained that for fiscal 2026, Mobile aftermarket growth will be driven more by the independent channel, following a restocking-led bounce in the OE channel in fiscal 2025. He confirmed the power gen super cycle continues with no end in sight and a very long backlog, but declined to comment on the scale of a single customer partnership. Regarding re-industrialization, he stated the project pipeline remains solid and is not abating, but has not accelerated to a notable degree.

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    Tim Thein's questions to DONALDSON Co (DCI) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein from Raymond James asked for preliminary thoughts on fiscal 2026, particularly regarding optimistic markets or geographies. He also inquired about the current inventory levels within the mobile aftermarket channels.

    Answer

    CEO Tod Carpenter deferred specific fiscal 2026 guidance but emphasized that the company is performing at a record level despite OE market headwinds, positioning it for significant leverage when the cycle turns. On inventory, he stated that levels in both the OE and independent aftermarket channels are at comfortable 'pull-through levels,' suggesting normal seasonal demand ahead.

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    Tim Thein's questions to DEERE & (DE) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to DEERE & (DE) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein questioned the wide range in Deere's operating cash flow guidance with only one quarter remaining in the fiscal year, asking how much was related to channel inventory uncertainty.

    Answer

    CFO Joshua Jepsen stated that the company feels confident about its inventory reduction progress. He clarified that the wide guidance range was maintained to acknowledge the uncertain environment, but the midpoint of their internal forecast has not changed, reflecting stability in their cash flow expectations.

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    Tim Thein's questions to MIDDLEBY (MIDD) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to MIDDLEBY (MIDD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial questioned whether margin pressures are causing restaurant customers to shift product mix to lower-spec equipment and asked about the underlying growth assumptions for the commercial business that support the long-term EPS growth target.

    Answer

    CCO Steve Spittle responded that customers are not trading down; instead, they are focusing on adding new dayparts like beverage and adopting higher-technology products to improve efficiency. CEO Timothy FitzGerald stated the commercial business is viewed as GDP-plus, driven by innovation and new market penetration. CFO Bryan Mittelman added that this revenue growth, combined with operational leverage and share buybacks, supports the high single to low double-digit EPS growth target.

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    Tim Thein's questions to MIDDLEBY (MIDD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial asked if restaurant customer margin pressures are causing a shift to lower-spec equipment and inquired about the underlying growth assumptions for the commercial business that support the long-term EPS target.

    Answer

    CCO Steve Spittle stated customers are not trading down but are instead investing in technology and new categories like beverage to drive traffic, which benefits Middleby. CEO Timothy FitzGerald added that the commercial business is seen as a "GDP-plus" grower. CFO Bryan Mittelman explained that EPS growth is amplified beyond revenue growth by operating leverage and capital allocation, specifically share repurchases.

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    Tim Thein's questions to REGAL REXNORD (RRX) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to REGAL REXNORD (RRX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial asked about the long-term potential for a domestic manufacturing recovery to benefit the AMC business and how the expected pickup in IPS activity aligns with feedback from distribution channel partners.

    Answer

    CEO Louis Pinkham responded that any rebound in industrial production, with the ISM index below 50 for two years, would benefit both IPS and AMC. However, he noted that the company is not yet seeing or hearing significant customer activity related to reshoring. Regarding the distribution channel, Pinkham acknowledged that feedback indicates slower activity, which aligns with the prolonged industrial downturn. He clarified that Regal Rexnord's second-half growth expectation is primarily driven by longer-cycle projects, not an anticipated step-up in distribution sales.

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    Tim Thein's questions to CUMMINS (CMI) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to CUMMINS (CMI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein from Raymond James inquired if Cummins is seeing increased demand for reciprocating engines for primary power generation, given the 'speed to power' theme and long lead times for turbines. He also asked for drivers of the high margins in the Distribution segment.

    Answer

    CEO Jennifer Rumsey stated that while Cummins is strategically evaluating the primary power market, its business today remains focused on backup power and is not yet meaningfully impacted by this trend. CFO Mark Smith explained that the strong Distribution margins are the result of broad-based operational improvements, including in international operations, in addition to strong parts and power generation sales.

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    Tim Thein's questions to CUMMINS (CMI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein from Raymond James asked if Cummins is seeing increased demand for reciprocating engines for primary power generation and questioned the drivers of the high margins in the Distribution segment.

    Answer

    Chair and CEO Jennifer Rumsey stated that while the 'speed to power' theme is a strategic area of interest, Cummins' business today remains primarily focused on backup power. CFO Mark Smith explained that the strong Distribution margins were the result of broad-based operational improvements across its international operations, not just benefits from the power generation market.

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    Tim Thein's questions to Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein from Raymond James Financial, Inc. asked how Allison can maintain a mid-30s decremental margin when the high-margin North American vocational market is weakening, probing for offsetting positive factors.

    Answer

    CFO Scott Mell explained that strength in the Defense business and stability in the Outside North America On-Highway segment are helping to mitigate the impact. COO G. Frederick Bohley clarified that while Class 8 straight trucks are soft, the municipal business remains strong, and the most significant weakness is in medium-duty, which affects the mix.

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    Tim Thein's questions to CNH Industrial (CNH) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to CNH Industrial (CNH) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein from Raymond James questioned why the presentation chart on tractor production versus retail sales didn't show a larger gap, given the company's stated focus on under-producing to clear channel inventory.

    Answer

    CEO Gerrit Marx clarified that the chart is based on units, not value, which masks the true dynamics. He explained that high-value, high-horsepower tractors are being significantly under-produced, but each machine counts as a single unit. He stated that a value-based chart would show a much more pronounced divergence between production and retail, reflecting the company's destocking progress in key product lines.

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    Tim Thein's questions to OSHKOSH (OSK) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to OSHKOSH (OSK) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial, Inc. questioned if the 20% growth in the Fire & Emergency segment was expected to continue from a product mix standpoint in the second half. He also asked for clarification on whether the positive sales mix in the Access segment was driven by product or geography.

    Answer

    CEO John Pfeifer affirmed that the strength in the Pierce fire apparatus brand is expected to continue, supported by ongoing investments and capacity increases. CFO Matthew Field explained the favorable Access segment mix was due to multiple factors, including a stronger geographic mix in North America and a stronger-than-expected mix of independent customers year-over-year.

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    Tim Thein's questions to AGCO CORP /DE (AGCO) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to AGCO CORP /DE (AGCO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial, Inc. asked about the expected cadence of the new $1 billion share repurchase program and whether early order patterns in North America are influencing Q4 production plans.

    Answer

    Chairman, President & CEO Eric Hansotia stated that share buybacks are now a preferred method for capital return after operational needs are met, but specific timing is contingent on cash flow availability. He noted that early order programs begin in August, and current sentiment among farmers and dealers is one of 'cautious optimism' pending greater clarity on trade policies.

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    Tim Thein's questions to TEREX (TEX) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to TEREX (TEX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein sought clarification on why MP margins were a key driver for higher expected EPS in Q4 versus Q3 and asked if the new, lower 17.5% tax rate is a sustainable run rate for 2026.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Jennifer Kong-Picarello explained the Q4 EPS lift is due to the timing of tariff mitigation, lower tariff cost impact in Q4, and sequential margin improvement in MP. Regarding the tax rate, she stated the 17.5% rate in 2025 is driven by discrete items and expects the rate to normalize back to the ~19% range in the future.

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    Tim Thein's questions to TIMKEN (TKR) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to TIMKEN (TKR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein asked whether there was a pull-forward of demand in the China wind energy business during the first half and questioned the historical role of the distribution segment as a leading indicator around cyclical inflection points.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Philip Fracassa confirmed the company believes there was some demand pull-ahead in China's wind market ahead of a June 1 regulatory change, which will likely mute second-half growth. President & CEO Richard Kyle advised against reading too much into the minor change in the distribution outlook, noting the segment is less cyclical than new equipment due to its significant maintenance and repair component.

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    Tim Thein's questions to TIMKEN (TKR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein from Raymond James Financial asked if there was a pull-forward of demand in the China wind business in the first half. He also inquired about the historical role of the distribution segment as a leading indicator around cycle inflection points.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Philip Fracassa confirmed they believe there was some demand pull-ahead in China wind due to a regulatory change, which will likely lead to more muted growth in the second half. President & CEO Rich Kyle commented that the distribution channel is less cyclical than new equipment due to its maintenance component and that he wouldn't read too much into the recent small change in its outlook.

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    Tim Thein's questions to TIMKEN (TKR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein from Raymond James Financial asked whether the company observed a pull-forward of demand in its China wind business during the first half. He also inquired about the historical role of the distribution segment as a leading indicator for cycle inflections.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Philip Fracassa confirmed that there was a demand pull-forward in the China wind business ahead of a June 1st regulatory change, which is expected to result in more muted growth in the second half. President & CEO Rich Kyle commented that the distribution channel is generally less cyclical than OEM channels due to its MRO component and advised against over-interpreting the recent minor outlook change as a major cyclical indicator.

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    Tim Thein's questions to TIMKEN (TKR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial asked if there was a pull-forward of demand in the China wind business during the first half. He also inquired about the historical role of the distribution segment as a leading indicator around cyclical inflection points.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Philip Fracassa confirmed they believe there was some demand pull-ahead in the China wind market ahead of a June 1 regulatory change, which will result in more muted growth in the second half. President and CEO Richard Kyle explained that while the distribution channel can show inventory effects, it's generally less cyclical than new equipment, and he advised against reading too much into the current small changes.

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    Tim Thein's questions to TIMKEN (TKR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial asked if there was a pull-forward of demand in the China wind energy business during the first half of the year. He also inquired about the historical role of the distribution segment as a leading indicator around cyclical inflection points.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Philip Fracassa confirmed that the company believes there was a pull-ahead of demand in China's wind market ahead of a June 1 regulatory change, which is expected to result in more muted growth in the second half. President & CEO Richard Kyle commented that the distribution channel is generally less cyclical than new equipment due to its exposure to the maintenance cycle, and he advised against reading too much into the recent small change in its outlook.

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    Tim Thein's questions to FEDERAL SIGNAL CORP /DE/ (FSS) leadership

    Tim Thein's questions to FEDERAL SIGNAL CORP /DE/ (FSS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tim Thein of Raymond James Financial inquired about the specific drivers for the Environmental Solutions Group's (ESG) strong margin performance and the potential effects of recent tax reform on customer demand and the M&A landscape.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Ian Hudson attributed the ESG margin expansion primarily to increased production leverage, followed by aftermarket growth and favorable price-cost dynamics. President & CEO Jennifer Sherman added that bonus depreciation from the new tax bill could incentivize equipment purchases by industrial customers. She described the M&A environment as very active but did not expect the tax bill to have a significant impact this year.

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