Timna Tanners

Timna Tanners asked about the heightened trade risk in Canada, Brazil, India, and Mexico, given the sharp trade restrictions in the U.S. and E.U., and whether these regions are adequately combating excess steel supply. She also sought ArcelorMittal's perspective on substitution risk and opportunity in Europe, particularly regarding steel versus aluminum in automotive and potential demand destruction from price increases.

Answer

CEO Aditya Mittal confirmed heightened trade risk in Canada, Brazil, India, and Mexico, noting progress in Canada and Brazil with government engagement on trade measures, though Mexico's pace could accelerate. He expects governments to react to direct impacts from European trade measures. In India, he highlighted significant demand growth (6-8%) which offsets some trade actions and supports profitability. Regarding substitution risk in Europe, Aditya Mittal stated that past experiences in markets like the U.S. with significant tariffs did not show major demand destruction. He emphasized growing with customers and noted ongoing EU activity to support downstream industries with potential TRQ and CBAM measures. He also highlighted steel's competitive advantages in lightweighting and cost for automotive applications, supported by ArcelorMittal's R&D.

Timna Tanners followed up on Aditya Mittal's comments regarding additional trade measures in Canada and Brazil, asking if there's increased risk in markets like India and Mexico due to sharp trade restrictions in the US and EU, and if these regions are adequately combating excess supply. She also sought ArcelorMittal's perspective on substitution risk and opportunity in Europe, specifically regarding shifts between steel and aluminum in automotive and potential demand destruction from rising steel prices.

Answer

CEO Aditya Mittal acknowledged heightened risk in Canada, Brazil, India, and Mexico, noting progress on trade measures in Canada and Brazil, with expectations for governments to react to direct impacts. He explained that India's significant growth (6-8%) helps offset some trade actions, making expansion profitable despite existing trade policies. Regarding substitution risk in Europe, Mr. Mittal stated that ArcelorMittal is not overly concerned about demand destruction from tariffs, citing the US market as an example. He emphasized growing with customers and noted ongoing EU efforts to support industrialization, including potential TRQ/CBAM measures for downstream industries. He highlighted ArcelorMittal's leading automotive steel franchise, which offers excellent lightweighting capabilities at competitive costs through R&D and process improvements.

Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo questioned ArcelorMittal's efforts to mitigate tariff costs, focusing on annual contract negotiations with automakers at Dofasco. She also asked why there were no share buybacks in the quarter.

Answer

Genuino Christino (CFO) confirmed that OEM contracts are being renewed, with customers valuing Dofasco's product, and no significant changes in automotive volumes are expected due to renegotiations. Regarding buybacks, Mr. Christino reiterated the company's clear policy of distributing 50% of free cash flow after dividends, noting that substantial buybacks were executed earlier in the year when the share price was lower, creating significant shareholder value.

Timna Tanners asked about ArcelorMittal's efforts to mitigate tariff costs, specifically regarding annual contract negotiations with automakers at Dofasco, and inquired about the absence of share buybacks in the quarter.

Answer

CFO Genuino Christino confirmed ongoing OEM contract renewals at Dofasco, noting customer satisfaction and no expected significant changes in automotive volumes due to renegotiations. Regarding buybacks, he reiterated the company's clear capital return policy of distributing 50% of free cash flow after dividends, highlighting successful buybacks earlier in the year at lower share prices.

Timna Tanners asked if ArcelorMittal might produce grain-oriented electrical steel in the U.S. in addition to non-grain-oriented, and what the company's outlook is for Chinese steel exports.

Answer

CEO Aditya Mittal clarified that the new U.S. facility is focused solely on non-grain-oriented steel for the premium automotive market. Regarding China, he noted that exports are at record levels, similar to 2015-2016. He stated the company's base case is that increasing trade actions from the U.S., Europe, Brazil, and India will level the playing field and potentially spur a reduction in Chinese exports or overcapacity.

Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo asked about the operational impact of recent winter storms, specific observations regarding cement imports and competitive dynamics in the Texas market, and the reasons for the adjusted capital expenditure forecast.

Answer

Craig Kesler, CFO, and Michael Haack, President and CEO, stated that facilities were well-prepared for extreme cold, minimizing storm impact. They explained that Texas faces competitive pressures not only from imports but also from structural changes in market ownership, leading to different operational approaches. They clarified that the slightly lowered CapEx forecast from $500 million to $430-$450 million was due to timing of large projects and prioritization of sustaining capital, not a change in project scope.

Timna Tanners asked about any operational impacts from recent storms, specific observations on cement imports (especially in Texas and California), and the reason for the lowered CapEx forecast.

Answer

CFO Craig Kesler confirmed that facilities were well-prepared for extreme cold, with weatherproofing measures in place. CEO Michael Haack explained that Texas faces competitive pressures not only from imports but also from structural changes in market ownership. Mr. Kesler clarified that the CapEx forecast was lowered from closer to $500 million to $430-$450 million due to the timing of spending on large projects like Mountain Cement and Duke, and effective prioritization of sustaining capital.

Timna Tanners asked about Southern Copper's updated cost guidance, particularly regarding the impact of currency inflation in local currencies versus the US dollar, and the company's strategies to mitigate these effects. She also inquired about the expected cost before by-products for the upcoming quarter and year, and the potential to increase silver production in 2026 given strong market prices, similar to the company's performance in 2025.

Answer

Raul Jacob, VP of Finance, Treasurer, and CFO, explained that the company believes it has passed the worst of post-COVID inflation, with current costs being more affected by the appreciation of the Mexican peso and Peruvian sol than specific inflation. He anticipates operating costs per pound to remain relatively flat, with strong by-product production providing significant credits. Regarding silver, Mr. Jacob stated the current guidance is 24 million ounces for 2026, but noted that the Buenavista zinc concentrator has found high-grade zinc and silver ore, leading to a focus on zinc production which also boosts silver output. He added that if current silver prices persist, silver could become the company's main by-product.

Timna Tanners inquired about Southern Copper's updated cost guidance, specifically addressing the impact of currency inflation in local currencies (Mexican peso and Peruvian sol) versus the US dollar, and strategies to combat these effects. She also asked for guidance on the cost before by-products for the upcoming quarter and year, and whether the company could increase silver production in 2026 given strong prices, potentially exceeding initial expectations.

Answer

Raul Jacob, Vice President, Finance, Treasurer, and CFO, explained that the company has likely passed the worst of post-COVID inflation, with current costs more influenced by currency appreciation than specific country inflation. He projected operating costs per pound to remain relatively flat, with strong by-product production providing significant credits. Regarding silver, Mr. Jacob stated the 2026 guidance is 24 million ounces, noting that the Buenavista zinc concentrator is currently focused on zinc due to high ore grades for both zinc and silver, which is boosting silver output. He added that silver could become the main by-product if current prices persist.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research asked for details on the Mexican project pipeline, the company's exposure to the COMEX/LME spread, and its potential response to a hypothetical 25% U.S. tariff on copper imports.

Answer

Raul Jacob (executive) clarified that the Mexican projects like Angangueo and Chalchihuites are not imminent. He acknowledged that some contracts are priced on COMEX and stated that if a U.S. tariff were imposed, the company would mitigate the impact by reassigning production to other markets. He added that the U.S. government has so far made a 'wise decision' not to apply tariffs, given the country's copper deficit.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research sought details on the timeline for new Mexican projects like Angangueo and Chalchihuites, the company's exposure to the COMEX-LME price spread, and potential strategies to mitigate US import tariffs.

Answer

Executive Raul Jacob described the Mexican projects as being in early, 'not that imminent' stages. He acknowledged COMEX-based contracts are being managed commercially and stated that if tariffs were imposed, the company would redirect sales to other markets. He noted the U.S. has wisely avoided copper tariffs so far, given its domestic deficit.

Timna Tanners sought clarification on the reasons behind updated guidance, asking why 2025 copper production now appears flat instead of declining and why CapEx was lower. She also asked if the higher 2025 copper production level could be sustained into 2026.

Answer

Executive Raul Jacob explained that 2025 copper production is forecast to be stable at a higher level achieved in 2024 due to operational recoveries. He corrected that the zinc forecast is actually much higher for 2025. Regarding 2026, he noted that current mine plans suggest slightly lower production, but they are working to revise plans and it is too far out to provide a solid forecast.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research requested an update on the water supply situation and pipeline permit status at the Buenavista mine, and asked for clarification on the production guidance nuances for copper, molybdenum, and silver.

Answer

Executive Raul Jacob reported that Buenavista's water needs are being met via truck fleet, as they have permits for the wells but not yet for the pipeline. On guidance, he explained the copper forecast is conservative, the main issue for molybdenum is lower prices rather than volume, and the higher silver forecast is driven by improved recovery and contributions from the new zinc concentrator.

Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo asked for an update on Nucor's through-cycle EBITDA target of $6.7 billion from the November 2022 Investor Day, questioning if it could be a run rate for 2027 after project completion. Tanners also inquired about Nucor's spare capacity and strategies to incrementally gain market share from imports, particularly in the sheet segment.

Answer

Chair and CEO Leon Topalian and President, COO, and CFO Steve Laxton acknowledged the Investor Day target, noting that while West Virginia's full ramp-up would contribute, 2027 might not see the full run rate. Leon Topalian emphasized the significant opportunity from decreased sheet import levels (4 million tons) and Nucor's strong position. He stated Nucor's sheet mills operate at roughly 85% utilization, providing ample capacity to capitalize on reduced imports and strong demand.

Timna Tanners inquired about Nucor's through-cycle EBITDA target of $6.7 billion from the November 2022 Investor Day, asking if it could be a run rate for 2027, and also about Nucor's spare capacity to take market share from imports.

Answer

Chair and CEO Leon Topalian acknowledged the Investor Day target, suggesting it's a good way to think about the future as the West Virginia mill ramps up, but also noted current high import levels. President, COO, and CFO Steve Laxton clarified that the $6.7 billion was a mid-cycle guidance after all projects were completed, not a specific 2027 forecast, as West Virginia won't be at full run rate then. Leon added that Nucor's sheet mills operate at 82-84% utilization, providing ample room to take share from imports, especially with reduced sheet imports.

Timna Tanners inquired about the decision to not pursue a new rebar micromill in the Pacific Northwest and the implications for West Coast supply, as well as the rationale behind the lower share buyback volume in Q3.

Answer

Leon Topalian (Chair, President, and CEO) clarified that the decision not to build a new micromill in Seattle was based on prudent capital allocation, as existing facilities in Kingman, Arizona, Utah, and the current Seattle mill provide adequate coverage for the Western U.S. and Canada. He confirmed the existing Seattle mill continues to operate. Regarding buybacks, Leon Topalian highlighted Nucor's consistent shareholder returns over five years. Steve Laxton (Executive Vice President and CFO) acknowledged Q3's lower quarterly return but reiterated the commitment to returning at least 40% of annual earnings, balancing investments with strong liquidity and a robust balance sheet.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research, LLC requested more specific guidance on the magnitude of the expected Q2 earnings improvement in the steel mills segment and asked how Nucor is mitigating potential negative tariff impacts on its own imports.

Answer

CFO Stephen Laxton confirmed the math for a strong Q2 improvement was directionally correct but deferred specific quantitative guidance to the mid-quarter update. CEO Leon Topalian stated that tariff exposure on equipment for the West Virginia mill is minimal and that the broader benefit of a healthy domestic steel market from trade policies far outweighs any minor negative impacts. EVP Allen Behr added that Nucor's diversified raw material strategy and global relationships allow it to mitigate risks effectively.

Timna Tanners sought clarity on Q2 guidance for the steel mills segment and the impact of tariffs on Nucor's operations.

Answer

EVP John Hollatz refrained from providing quantitative guidance. CEO Leon Topalian and EVP Allen Behr discussed tariff mitigation strategies and raw material supply.

Timna Tanners asked about Nucor's shareholder return policy, questioning if the high pace of buybacks from 2024 could be sustained amid significant CapEx. She also inquired about the potential impact of new tariffs on Nucor's operations, specifically its slab imports and Mexican facilities.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian affirmed that shareholder returns are a top priority and the company will not become over-levered, noting over 60% of earnings were returned in the last five years. CFO Steve Laxton added that the 40% payout ratio is a minimum and 2024's high rate was due to excess cash. On trade, Topalian anticipates broad tariffs under an 'America-first' agenda to level the playing field against commodity-grade imports.

Timna Tanners asked for an update on the realized impact from government initiatives like the IRA, CHIPS, and IIJA compared to previously disclosed targets, and questioned how new capacity from projects like Lexington and Kingman will be absorbed by the market in 2025.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian acknowledged that while the CHIPS Act is driving construction of over 20 semiconductor facilities, the benefits from the IIJA and IRA have been slower to materialize and are below initial tonnage estimates. He affirmed that Nucor's investment strategy is long-term and not dictated by short-term market cycles, positioning new capacity to serve underrepresented regions and meet specific customer demands, ultimately supporting the company's through-cycle earnings goals.

Timna Tanners asked for an update on the $1.4 billion structural contribution, specifically the status of the four value-add lines and Sinton's performance, inquiring when Sinton's utilization might converge with other operations.

Answer

Theresa Wagler, EVP and CFO, broke down the $1.4 billion contribution: Sinton ($475M-$525M), Aluminum ($650M-$700M), and value-added lines (around $200M). Barry Schneider, President and COO, stated that the four value-added lines are operating well and full, benefiting from successful anti-dumping cases. He added that Sinton's quality-related costs from 2025 have been resolved, allowing it to operate at market-driven levels.

Timna Tanners asked for an update on the $1.4 billion structural contribution, specifically the status of the four value-add lines ramping up, and Sinton's current performance, inquiring when its utilization might converge with other operations.

Answer

Theresa Wagler, EVP and CFO, outlined the through-cycle EBITDA contributions: Sinton ($475M-$525M), aluminum ($650M-$700M), and value-added lines (around $200M). Barry Schneider, President and COO, stated the four value-added lines are operating very well and full, benefiting from the resolution of CORE cases against dumped corrosion-resistant steels. He added that Sinton's additional costs related to product quality in 2025 have been resolved, allowing it to operate at market-driven levels.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research asked about the factors that led the Sinton, Texas mill to achieve positive EBITDA in Q1, a shift from earlier expectations, and inquired about any updates on its potential to produce exposed automotive steel.

Answer

EVP & CFO Theresa Wagler explained that Sinton's profitability was driven by its greater exposure to spot pricing, which allowed it to capture the March price appreciation more quickly than other mills. President & COO Barry Schneider added that maturing operations and higher utilization rates were also key contributors. Regarding exposed automotive steel, Schneider noted that while it's not being advertised yet, the team is developing excellent practices and has not ruled it out for the future.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research, LLC asked for clarification on the Sinton facility's profitability, questioning why it wasn't higher given its 80% utilization rate, and what steps are needed to improve the profitability of its finishing lines. She later followed up on the balance sheet, asking if the current cash level is appropriate and if buybacks would remain steady.

Answer

COO Barry Schneider attributed the lag in profitability to extraordinary costs for improving machine reliability and the ongoing process of enhancing yields and prime rates. CEO Mark Millett highlighted recent exponential performance gains and projected profitability for Sinton in Q2. CFO Theresa Wagler later affirmed comfort with the capital structure and confirmed plans for a continued active share repurchase program, funded by cash flow from new projects.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research probed for more detail on the ramp-up of the four new value-add coating lines, asking about their current utilization rates and the expected timeline for their full contribution.

Answer

COO Barry Schneider reported the lines are operating at 65-75% utilization, with quality being very good. CFO Theresa Wagler clarified that their earnings impact has not been significant yet but will become a key contributor in 2025. CEO Mark Millett added that the Sinton lines' throughput is directly linked to the hot side's ongoing ramp-up.

Timna Tanners asked for Alcoa's updated views on aluminum volumes in the U.S. and Europe, specifically if there's pressure to increase U.S. production due to tariffs and how CBAM might encourage European domestic volumes. She also sought clarification on the timeframe for Alcoa to be free to exit Spain under its existing framework.

Answer

William Oplinger, President and CEO, stated Massena is running full, and restarting Warrick's idle line is unlikely due to high cost ($100M) and long lead times. He believes the Rotterdam Premium increase from CBAM is insufficient to incentivize European restarts due to high energy prices. He confirmed Alcoa will have largely fulfilled the San Ciprián viability agreement by the end of 2027.

Timna Tanners asked for Alcoa's updated thoughts on aluminum volumes in the U.S. and Europe, considering the impact of tariffs and CBAM, and the earliest timeframe for Alcoa to exit Spain under its existing framework.

Answer

William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer, stated that Massena (U.S.) is at full capacity with a new long-term power contract, while restarting the idle line at Warrick (U.S.) is expensive and time-consuming, making it unlikely. He believes the Rotterdam Premium uplift from CBAM is insufficient to incentivize restarts in Europe due to high energy prices. He confirmed that Alcoa expects to have largely fulfilled the viability agreement in Spain by the end of 2027.

Timna Tanners asked for an update on negotiations between the U.S. and Canada regarding any carve-out of aluminum tariffs and questioned if Alcoa is rethinking expanding domestic capacity, such as at the idle Warwick pot line, given reported lower U.S. production costs.

Answer

William Oplinger, CEO, stated Alcoa is providing market flow data to both governments to inform tariff decisions. He clarified that globally competitive long-term energy prices are not consistently available in the U.S., making a Warwick restart (estimated $100 million, 1-2 years) unfeasible based solely on tariffs. He emphasized the significance of the new long-term energy contract and $60 million investment for the Massena operations.

Timna Tanners asked for an update on Canadian-U.S. negotiations regarding aluminum tariffs and whether Alcoa is rethinking domestic capacity expansion, specifically at the Warwick idle pot line, given claims of the U.S. having the lowest aluminum smelter production costs.

Answer

William Oplinger, CEO, stated Alcoa is providing market flow data to both Canadian and U.S. governments to inform tariff decisions. He expressed surprise at the 'lowest cost' claim for U.S. aluminum production, noting a lack of competitive long-term energy prices ($30-40/MWh) compared to data centers paying $100/MWh. He clarified that a Warwick restart would be complex, cost $100 million, and take 1-2 years, and Alcoa would not invest solely based on tariffs. He highlighted the significant 10-year energy contract and $60 million investment in the anode bake furnace at Massena, securing its future.

Timna Tanners asked for clarification on the financial math behind the U.S. tariff impacts, questioning the difference between the net annual and gross quarterly figures, and inquired if the tariffs' persistence would trigger a restart of the Warrick smelter.

Answer

EVP and CFO Molly Beerman explained the $100 million annual figure is a net impact, accounting for higher Midwest premium benefits against the gross tariff cost, while the $105 million is a quarterly gross cost baseline. She noted the premium's slow response is due to market uncertainty and inventory stockpiling. President and CEO William Oplinger added that the company would not restart capacity based on a volatile tariff that could easily change.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research inquired about the criteria for restarting curtailed capacity like the Warrick and Lista smelters and requested an update on the progress of key technology initiatives such as ELYSIS.

Answer

President and CEO William Oplinger stated that any restart decision first requires clarity on tariffs. He also noted that the current high price of alumina creates a significant opportunity cost for using it internally versus selling it on the spot market. Regarding technology, he reported a delay at ELYSIS but anticipates a key cell start in 2025, alongside progress in other R&D areas. EVP and CFO Molly Beerman added that technology-related CapEx is not significant.

Timna Tanners asked about the proposed partnership for the San Ciprian smelter in Spain, inquiring about the status of government and union approvals, plans to ramp up production, and the company's capital allocation strategy in light of strong commodity prices.

Answer

CEO William Oplinger explained that the announcement marks the start of discussions with stakeholders to secure cooperation on key issues like CO2 compensation and permitting, which is a prerequisite for the partnership with IGNIS. Regarding capital allocation, CFO Molly Beerman and CEO William Oplinger both stated that while they will evaluate all options, deleveraging the balance sheet is the primary focus for early 2025 to create shareholder value.

Timna Tanners requested an update on the 45X tax credits, the potential for a broader IRA repeal, and guidance on how to model potential exit costs for the San Ciprián facility.

Answer

President and CEO William Oplinger stated there were no new updates on 45X but reiterated its importance. On San Ciprián, he explained the ongoing dual-track process of improving competitiveness and pursuing a sale. He noted that if both fail, cash would run out by year-end, forcing 'hard decisions,' but could not provide a specific range for potential exit costs.

Timna Tanners asked for updated thoughts on recycling opportunities for secondary materials and the potential for substitution of copper with other metals, such as silver in solar or aluminum in other applications, in light of recent copper price increases.

Answer

Kathleen Quirk, President and CEO, mentioned the completion of their circular project at Atlantic Copper in Spain for processing electronics scrap by mid-year, and some existing scrap processing in the U.S., though it's not their core business. Regarding substitution, she affirmed copper's superior conductivity makes it compelling for applications like data centers, acknowledging that thrifting and substitution will occur as prices rise, but significant copper demand will persist. Richard Adkerson, Chairman of the Board, added that substitution is inevitable but will happen in the context of higher copper prices.

Timna Tanners asked for fresh thoughts on recycling opportunities beyond the Atlantic Copper Circular Project and potential initiatives for secondary material, as well as insights on substitution trends for copper.

Answer

Kathleen Quirk, President and CEO, mentioned the Atlantic Copper Circular Project in Spain for electronics scrap (completing mid-year) and some US scrap processing, but clarified that mining and processing mined material is their core business. Regarding substitution, she believes copper's superior conductivity remains compelling for applications like data centers, and while thrifting/substitution will occur as prices rise, significant copper supply is still needed for secular demand trends. Richard Adkerson, Chairman of the Board, added that substitution is inevitable but will happen in the context of higher copper prices.

Asked a broad question about U.S. government support for copper, inquiring about measures Freeport could take to accelerate growth, the possibility of adding U.S. smelting capacity, and any updates on potential 45X tax benefits.

Answer

Freeport is well-positioned to expand U.S. production through its integrated operations, especially its leach production which doesn't require a smelter. They are exploring expanding leach capacity, potentially expanding the Miami smelter, and processing scrap. While copper has been named a critical mineral, legislation is still needed to make it eligible for the 45X production tax credit, which the company is advocating for.

Requested more detail on North American cost-cutting initiatives, including the role of mine plans, labor challenges, and the consideration of the 45X tax credit.

Answer

The 45X tax credit would be an incremental benefit. Cost reductions are focused on operational basics like improving asset efficiency and uptime, rationalizing contractors, and automation. The labor situation has stabilized, and the company's internal cost reduction goal is significantly more than the 10% offered by the tax credit.

Timna Tanners requested more detail on North American cost-cutting initiatives, including the influence of mine plans, labor challenges, and how the potential 45X tax credit factors into growth plans.

Answer

President and CEO Kathleen Quirk stated that the 45X credit would be an incremental benefit, but the company's internal cost reduction goals are much larger. She detailed that cost initiatives focus on improving asset efficiency, reducing unplanned downtime, and leveraging automation. She also noted that the labor situation has stabilized, which aids productivity.

Timna Tanners from CSTM asked for indicators to watch for a turnaround in the broader European market, beyond aerospace, including sentiment and interest rates, given its prolonged weakness. She also sought clarification on the impact of rising aluminum and Midwest premium prices on Constellium's EBITDA and cash flow, specifically quantifying any benefits to EBITDA and addressing the cash flow implications, and whether current spot prices are reflected in the guidance.

Answer

COO and CEO Appointee Ingrid Joerg noted that some European markets appear to be bottoming out after three years of weakness, with packaging remaining strong and stable. Automotive is impacted by tariffs and EV transition uncertainties, while industrial markets show mixed pictures. CEO Jean-Marc Germain added that Germany's economic stimulus and increased defense spending could be positives, emphasizing Europe as a market of diverse niches. Regarding metal prices, Jean-Marc Germain explained that the only EBITDA benefit from rising LME and Midwest premium comes through scrap spreads, making recycling more profitable. He clarified that rising metal prices act as a drag on cash flow due to higher inventory replenishment costs, approximating a $60-$90 million drag this year, which is why free cash flow guidance remained unchanged despite raised EBITDA guidance. CFO Jack Guo confirmed that the higher metal price environment is a significant factor in increased working capital needs. Jean-Marc Germain confirmed that the guidance fully reflects today's spot aluminum prices.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research asked about Constellium's long-term strategic responses to sustained pressure on U.S. scrap markets, persistently weak EU auto demand, and the potential for customers to switch away from aluminum due to higher prices.

Answer

CEO Jean-Marc Germain explained that on scrap, the company can use other scrap types and high prices could attract imports, capping further increases. For EU auto weakness, he stated the company will not invest growth capital in auto and can pivot flexible assets to produce more can sheet. Regarding material substitution, he argued that aluminum's cost is a small part of the final product and switching involves significant infrastructure challenges for customers, making it unlikely.

Timna Tanners asked about any visible signs of market recovery, particularly concerning the aerospace sector where weakness was just beginning to be seen. She also questioned how existing contracts protect the company in a soft market and inquired about potential tax increases in Paris.

Answer

CEO Jean-Marc Germain stated there are no clear signs of recovery yet, characterizing the aerospace issue as a temporary demand shift due to OEM production delays, which affects mix but not fundamental long-term margins. He explained that contracts are requirement-based but provide protection through mechanisms like compensation claims in automotive. CFO Jack Guo added that A&T margins remain historically attractive excluding the Valais flood impact and clarified that any potential French tax increase would have a modest, temporary cash impact in 2025 and 2026, not 2024.

Timna Tanners followed up on cement pricing, asking about the impact of imports and whether tariffs are reducing the competitiveness of overseas tons.

Answer

Jan Jenisch, Chairman and CEO of Amrize, highlighted the value customers place on Amrize as a local producer with consistent quality and reliable supply. He declined to comment on specific price increases or import costs/tariffs, stating the company is focused on its own action plan to improve pricing for next year.

Timna Tanners asked about cement pricing, specifically if Amrize is seeing any impact from imports and whether tariffs are reducing the competitiveness of overseas tons.

Answer

Jan Jenisch, Chairman and CEO, highlighted that Amrize's customers value local production, consistent quality, and reliable supply. He preferred not to comment on market information regarding price increases or import costs from tariffs, stating Amrize is focused on its own action plan to improve pricing for next year.

Timna Tanners inquired about the status of destocking in the industry, asking if excess inventory issues are nearing an end, how Reliance wins new business (execution vs. price), and sought clarification on when the LIFO accounting method might become neutral or result in LIFO income, given recent price trends.

Answer

Karla Lewis, President and CEO, stated that while service center inventories have come down, Reliance wouldn't definitively say destocking is over but sees positive signs like extended lead times. She emphasized that new business is won through execution, expanded processing capabilities, and high customer service, not primarily price, expecting to retain most of this business. Arthur Ajemyan, Senior Vice President and CFO, explained that LIFO expense in Q3 reflects cost increases from the first half of the year, spread pro-rata annually, and expects LIFO expense to be in the rearview mirror if costs remain flat in 2026.

Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo asked for an update on inventory levels across the industry, specifically whether destocking was nearing an end, and how Reliance Inc. wins new business. She also sought clarification on why LIFO expense continued in Q3 despite recent price declines.

Answer

Karla Lewis, CEO and President, stated that while service center inventories have come down, Reliance Inc. focuses on buying based on shipment levels and is seeing lead times extend, suggesting a potential inflection point. She attributed new business wins to execution, expanded processing capabilities, and high customer service, especially for just-in-time small orders. Arthur Ajemyan, CFO, explained that LIFO expense in Q3 was due to the pro-rata application of an annual estimate, reflecting cost increases from earlier in the year, and would smooth out annually.

Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo asked about the impact of tariffs on Kaiser Aluminum, specifically regarding customer price pushback, opportunities to gain market share from imports, and the effect on premiums. She also inquired about potential cost inflation impacting packaging demand, whether Kaiser is shielded due to its product mix (ends and tabs), and if the company has spare capacity for can sheet to fill in for a competitor's recent outage. Finally, Tanners sought clarity on the expected cadence of the ramp-up for Kaiser's new facilities in 2026, questioning if it would be a full run rate in Q1 or a more gradual improvement throughout the year.

Answer

Keith Harvey, Chairman, President, and CEO of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, stated that tariffs have been neutral to slightly positive for Kaiser, benefiting from North American operations and increased LME premiums, which are passed through to customers. He noted better demand for domestic products and opportunities for price enhancement in the general engineering business. Regarding packaging, Harvey confirmed strong overall demand, particularly for food-related products, and no customers reducing contracted capacities, with some even asking for more. He explained that Kaiser is currently fairly full and focused on meeting existing commitments, with limited ability to assist on bare product due to the shift towards coated products. For 2026, Harvey indicated a measured ramp-up approach in the first half to ensure customer satisfaction, with expectations for all major growth investments to be behind them and strong demand driving full run rates, especially in the second half.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research inquired about the impact of tariffs on customer pricing and market share, potential demand concerns in packaging due to cost inflation, Kaiser Aluminum's capacity to fill in for can sheet shortages, and the expected ramp-up cadence for new facilities in 2026.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Keith Harvey stated that tariffs have been neutral to slightly positive, leading to better demand for domestic products and opportunities for price enhancement, especially in general engineering. Regarding packaging, Mr. Harvey noted strong overall demand, particularly in food-related segments, and no reduction in contracted capacities despite industry cost inflation concerns. He indicated that Kaiser Aluminum is currently at full capacity and primarily focused on shifting to coated products, limiting its ability to fill bare can sheet shortages. For 2026, Mr. Harvey expects a marginal ramp-up in the first half, with stronger performance anticipated in the second half as major growth investments come fully online.

Timna Tanners asked about the impact of the rising Midwest premium on pass-through timing and working capital. She also questioned the rationale for considering a change in inventory accounting from LIFO. Furthermore, she requested a more precise breakdown of the expected H1 vs. H2 EBITDA split for 2025 and inquired about the outlook for cash taxes after NOLs are utilized and the CapEx forecast beyond 2025.

Answer

Keith Harvey (executive) and Neal West (executive) responded. Keith Harvey stated that their business model allows for immediate pass-through of metal costs, insulating them from premium volatility. He explained the potential change from LIFO accounting is being assessed to provide more clarity and avoid the recurring need to explain LIFO-specific impacts. He also confirmed the 2025 EBITDA forecast assumes a 40/60 split between the first and second halves. He projected 2025 CapEx at approximately $125 million. Neal West added that the company's NOLs have been fully utilized and projected 2025 cash taxes to be in the $5 million to $7 million range.

Timna Tanners inquired about potential destocking in the aerospace sector due to lower build rates and the impact of a potential Boeing strike. She also asked about the company's perspective on further tariffs on downstream aluminum imports.

Answer

CEO Keith Harvey responded that the company had already factored in some aerospace inventory channel softness into its outlook. He noted that the diversity of their aerospace and high-strength products, including defense and space, provides a buffer. Harvey also stated that most of the year's declared orders from large airframers have already been shipped, minimizing their exposure to a prolonged outage. Regarding tariffs, he expressed a belief that stronger North American manufacturing, supported by tariffs, would be a net positive for the company.

Timna Tanners asked if the opportunity from reduced pre-painted imports was fully realized or if further market share gains were expected. She also inquired about any impact of the Oswego fire on the Washington facility's ramp-up and how the current economic climate is influencing the M&A pipeline and sellers' appetite.

Answer

Tom Ferguson, President and CEO, stated that the pre-painted import opportunity is in 'early innings' with potential for continued share gains, noting a slight negative impact on margins due to smaller, quicker-turn orders. Jason Crawford, SVP and CFO, confirmed no impact from the Oswego fire on the Washington facility, stating its production ramp is ahead of plan with ample aluminum substrate. Tom Ferguson described the M&A pipeline as healthy with nine good opportunities, particularly for galvanizing bolt-ons, but noted the market hasn't accelerated sellers' timelines despite economic conditions.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research followed up on tariffs, asking if previously mentioned project delays materialized, if any materials besides zinc and paint are impacted, and if AZZ is benefiting from downstream tariffs.

Answer

Executive Tom Ferguson and Executive Jason Crawford clarified that earlier concerns about project delays did not materialize, with weather being the primary Q4 headwind. While major inputs like zinc and paint are unaffected, they acknowledged some secondary supplies (e.g., chemicals, wire) have seen tariff-related cost increases, which are being managed through pricing and negotiations. Executive David Nark highlighted a potential benefit, stating that tariffs on prepainted imports could shift volume to domestic suppliers like AZZ.

Timna Tanners asked for an update on the competitive landscape, including opportunities for market share gains and the impact of new capacity from competitors. She also inquired about the potential effects of export restrictions under the USMCA tariff structure.

Answer

CEO Thomas Ferguson characterized the competitive environment as normal, with new galvanizing and paint line capacity additions aligning with expected demand growth. He noted that if tariffs reduce painted steel imports, this new domestic capacity would be necessary to meet demand. Executive David Nark added that an increase in exports would be a positive for both the galvanizing and Precoat segments.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research asked about the remaining runway for productivity improvements and market share gains in both business segments. She also inquired about capital allocation priorities and the conditions needed for a dividend increase or share buybacks.

Answer

Executive Thomas Ferguson assessed that AZZ is in the mid-to-later innings for productivity gains in galvanizing but still has a few years of opportunity, particularly in bringing lower-quartile plants up to fleet average. For Precoat, he sees earlier-to-mid-inning opportunities. Regarding capital allocation, Ferguson prioritized debt paydown to reach a ~2x leverage target, followed by high-return acquisitions. He stated that a dividend increase is a possibility but not a focus for the current year, preferring to deploy capital for M&A growth.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research inquired about the financial impact of exit and severance costs from the announced asset idlings and asked for an updated schedule for future blast furnace relines.

Answer

CFO Celso Goncalves detailed minimal cash charges (~$15M) but a significant non-cash impairment charge (~$300M) in Q2 related to the idlings. CEO Lourenco Goncalves confirmed they will continue relining furnaces as needed, with the next major reline at Burns Harbor now scheduled for 2027, a delay from 2026.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research questioned why full-year guidance was not raised despite a strong Q1, incremental acquisition revenue, and an improving C&D market. She also asked if economic uncertainty was affecting the sentiment of potential acquisition candidates.

Answer

Executive Ned Coletta explained that it is too early in the year to adjust guidance, though he noted performance is trending toward the mid-to-high end of ranges. CEO John Casella added there is a 'wait and see' approach regarding roll-off and landfill volumes. On the M&A front, John Casella stated that they have not seen a significant impact from economic uncertainty on the M&A environment or seller sentiment, describing it as 'steady as you go.'

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research questioned why the company did not raise its full-year guidance despite a strong Q1 and incremental acquisition revenue, and asked if economic uncertainty was affecting the M&A environment.

Answer

Executive Ned Coletta explained that it is too early in the year to adjust guidance, though results are trending toward the mid-to-high end of their ranges. CEO John Casella added that they are in a 'wait and see' period for more visibility on roll-off and landfill trends. Regarding M&A, Casella stated they have not seen a significant impact from economic uncertainty on seller sentiment, describing the current environment as 'steady as you go.'

Timna Tanners requested clarification on the company's available liquidity, asking if the mentioned '$1 billion in dry powder' could be deployed without new financing. She also inquired about the potential impact of the upcoming election on the M&A environment, particularly regarding FTC oversight.

Answer

CFO Bradford Helgeson confirmed the ~$1 billion in liquidity comprises ~$300 million in cash and a $700 million undrawn revolver, which can easily fund smaller deals. CEO John Casella stated the election would not change their M&A strategy, though tax policy changes could affect seller behavior. President Ned Coletta added that the step-down in bonus depreciation is a tangible factor in M&A valuations that could be influenced by election outcomes.

Timna Tanners probed about the industrial side of the business, asking about the potential to pivot capacity towards stronger A&D markets and whether spare capacity is being held for a potential industrial recovery.

Answer

Kim Fields, President and CEO, noted that pivoting to higher-margin A&D was the core of their successful transformation. Donald Newman, EVP and CFO, added that while they continuously optimize asset utilization, significant new investment wouldn't be needed for further pivoting. He also mentioned that industrial demand can 'spring back very quickly' and that the current guidance assumes flatness, not a rebound, suggesting readiness for a potential recovery.

Timna Tanners requested an update on the operational disruptions from Q3 and asked about the potential impact of retaliatory tariffs from Europe.

Answer

President and CEO Kimberly Fields confirmed that the Q3 melt shop issues are resolved and other repairs are on track for completion in Q2, supported by ongoing investments in reliability and AI-driven predictive maintenance. Regarding Europe, she stated ATI is well-positioned to handle potential tariffs due to dual-sourcing and contractual pass-through mechanisms, while also monitoring the Russia relationship.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research sought an update on industrial market performance and asked about the risk of a repeat of past contract dynamics with Boeing, where minimum offtakes led to prolonged periods of low-margin volume.

Answer

EVP and CFO Don Newman acknowledged that industrial demand has been weaker than expected, with sales down sequentially in Q3, and a significant rebound is not anticipated in Q4. President and CEO Kim Fields addressed the Boeing concern, explaining that contracts were renegotiated during the pandemic to be share-based with min/max levels, and ATI's diversified customer base across all major airframe and engine programs mitigates risk from any single customer.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research, LLC noted the strong share buyback in the quarter, which exceeded the total for all of last year. She asked if this was opportunistic, if it signaled a lull in M&A, and about the status of the repurchase authorization.

Answer

Chair and CEO Ward Nye clarified that the buyback was not a commentary on M&A, as the pipeline remains attractive. Instead, the $450 million repurchase of 911,000 shares was 'opportunistic' because management believed it was a 'great place to go in and buy.' He noted that the company still has plenty of runway on its 2015 authorization, having bought back about half of the 20 million shares authorized. He emphasized that the balance sheet remains strong, with the debt-to-EBITDA ratio well within the company's target range.

Timna Tanners requested more detail on the private non-residential outlook, particularly for data centers, and asked for the catalyst that will accelerate IIJA-funded projects in 2025.

Answer

CEO C. Nye cited specific, large-scale data center projects in key states driven by AI and noted the associated energy infrastructure will be highly aggregates-intensive. Regarding the IIJA, he explained that since 2024 was the first significant year of funding and only about 20% of funds have been spent, the flow of projects will irrefutably build into 2025 and 2026, layered on top of already strong state budgets.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research asked about the indirect effects of tariff-related uncertainty on Vulcan's customers and on potential acquisition candidates.

Answer

CEO James Hill stated that the direct impact of tariffs on Vulcan is limited due to its business model, but the company is monitoring the potential cost impact on private construction. He noted that M&A activity typically slows during volatile periods, which is currently the case, but he views it as a temporary pause. CFO Mary Andrews Carlisle added that Vulcan's strong balance sheet positions it well to act on M&A opportunities as they arise.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research inquired about the M&A landscape for 2025 and requested an update on the arbitration status of the Calica quarry in Mexico.

Answer

CEO Tom Hill described the M&A pipeline as 'very healthy' and expects continued success with acquisitions in 2025. Regarding Mexico, he reported no significant news, stating the company is still awaiting a decision from the tribunal, which is anticipated sometime in 2025. He reiterated his confidence in winning the case.

Timna Tanners inquired about capital allocation priorities, specifically addressing the paused share buyback program, the M&A pipeline, and other potential uses of cash such as debt repayment.

Answer

SVP and CFO Mary Andrews Carlisle emphasized that growth opportunities remain the top priority, highlighting the active M&A pipeline and the balance sheet capacity to fund them, including the Wake Stone acquisition. She also noted the company is planning for a debt maturity in April 2025. Chairman and CEO James Hill added that the M&A pipeline has other opportunities they hope to finalize in coming quarters.

Timna Tanners asked about the potential to recoup North American margin compression in the next quarter, the drivers behind strong Q2 volumes, and the outlook for the European segment, including the impact of a gas rebate and German stimulus.

Answer

Executive Paul Lawrence expressed confidence in recouping North American EBITDA per ton in Q3, citing improved metal margins, lower costs, and the non-recurrence of a one-time charge. Executive Peter Matt attributed strong volumes to sustainable demand and some pull-forward, and noted Europe's outlook is improving due to trade measures, Polish infrastructure projects, and potential German stimulus, which he sees as a 2026 benefit.

Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research asked about the volume contribution from the Arizona 2 mill relative to initial expectations and questioned what strategic options CMC has for its European business if the economic weakness in Germany persists.

Answer

Executive Peter Matt acknowledged that the Arizona 2 ramp-up has faced challenges but reiterated confidence in reaching the full 500,000-ton annual run rate. Regarding Europe, he emphasized the business's historical profitability and strategic value, stating that CMC remains committed to the unit. He noted the European team is working towards breakeven and that a German economic recovery is anticipated in late 2025 or 2026.

Timna Tanners sought an update on the strategic process for the Hawesville site, asked if the Midwest premium forecast includes potential tariffs on Canadian aluminum, and questioned if the Jamalco expansion is linked to a potential Mt. Holly restart.

Answer

President and CEO Jesse Gary stated the Hawesville process is proceeding well with strong interest and that any offers will be weighed against a restart scenario. He confirmed the company's Midwest premium outlook does not assume any additional tariffs on Canada. He also clarified that the Jamalco expansion and a Mt. Holly restart are not directly linked, as alumina can be sourced from the open market. EVP and CFO Gerald Bialek provided the 2025 investment CapEx range for Jamalco.

Timna Tanners asked for an update on volume and cost trends for the first quarter, which was more than halfway complete. She also requested more detail on the specific cost-lowering measures being implemented, beyond the benefits of a weaker currency and by-product credits.

Answer

Executive Carlos Medeiros stated that Q1 operational performance was expected to be similar to the prior year, despite heavier rainfall. Executive Marcelo Bacci attributed cost improvements to enhanced production stability, lower-cost output from new projects, and an ongoing supplier relationship optimization program, noting the C1 cost trend should continue downward on a moving average basis.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research asked for an assessment of the likelihood that Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina will implement effective trade barriers against Chinese steel. She also requested updated thoughts on the potential impact of U.S.-Mexico steel tariffs on Ternium and its customers.

Answer

CEO Maximo Vedoya expressed optimism that Mexico and Brazil would strengthen trade defenses against unfair Chinese imports, while noting Argentina is further behind but likely to act later. Regarding U.S.-Mexico trade, he highlighted Ternium's minimal direct exports to the U.S. (4% of flat rolled products) and the large U.S. steel trade surplus with Mexico, expressing confidence that a reasonable agreement would be reached to address third-country imports rather than penalize regional trade.

Timna Tanners asked for more detail on the time it takes to adjust the 'pay-for-oil' and 'charge-for-oil' pricing model in response to market changes. She also inquired about the duration of the California re-refinery idling and any associated exit or remediation costs.

Answer

Co-CEO Michael Battles explained there is a natural 6-to-8-week lag in adjusting the collection pricing model due to the time it takes for oil to move through the system. Co-CEO Eric Gerstenberg stated there are no additional costs to idling the California facility; it is a cost-saving measure. He expects it to remain idle for the next six months to a year, with the site remaining active for other distribution purposes.

Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research asked for the timing of updated economics for the Highland Valley and San Nicolas projects and requested commentary on the outlook for the zinc market.

Answer

CEO Jonathan Price stated that updates on the projects would be provided at the November Investor Day. He then provided a positive outlook for zinc, citing a chronic structural deficit in the concentrate market due to underinvestment and disruptions, which is leading to record-low treatment charges and supporting prices.

Followed up on cement pricing, asking for more color on pricing power amid softer volumes, industry discipline, and the potential threat from imports.

Answer

The company is confident in its mid-single-digit cement price growth, supported by historically resilient pricing and favorable long-term supply-demand dynamics in the U.S. market. They stated they are not heavily exposed to imports, and in Houston, the primary issue affecting pricing has been weather, not import pressure.